Higher Lung Cancer Incidence in Young Women Than Young Men in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies showed a higher incidence of lung cancer among young women than among young men in the United States. Whether this pattern has continued in contemporary birth cohorts and, if so, whether it can be fully explained by sex differences in smoking behaviors are unknown. METHODS: We examined the nationwide population-based incidence of lung cancer according to sex, race or ethnic group, age group (30 to 34, 35 to 39, 40 to 44, 45 to 49, and 50 to 54 years), year of birth (1945 to 1980), and calendar period of diagnosis (1995-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2014), and we calculated female-to-male incidence rate ratios. We also examined the prevalence of cigarette smoking, using data from the National Health Interview Survey from 1970 to 2016. RESULTS: Over the past two decades, the age-specific incidence of lung cancer has generally decreased among both men and women 30 to 54 years of age in all races and ethnic groups, but the declines among men have been steeper. Consequently, among non-Hispanic whites, the female-to-male incidence rate ratios increased, exceeding 1.0 in the age groups of 30 to 34, 35 to 39, 40 to 44, and 45 to 49 years. For example, the female-to-male incidence rate ratio among whites 40 to 44 years of age increased from 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84 to 0.92) during the 1995-1999 period to 1.17 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.23) during the 2010-2014 period. The crossover in sex-specific rates occurred among non-Hispanic whites born since 1965. Sex-specific incidence rates converged among non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders but crossed over from a higher incidence among men to a higher incidence among women only among Hispanics. The prevalence of cigarette smoking among women born since 1965 has approached, but generally not exceeded, the prevalence among men. CONCLUSIONS: The patterns of historically higher incidence rates of lung cancer among men than among women have reversed among non-Hispanic whites and Hispanics born since the mid-1960s, and they are not fully explained by sex differences in smoking behaviors. Future studies are needed to identify reasons for the higher incidence of lung cancer among young women. (Funded by the American Cancer Society.).

Smoking and mortality--beyond established causes.

BACKGROUND: Mortality among current smokers is 2 to 3 times as high as that among persons who never smoked. Most of this excess mortality is believed to be explained by 21 common diseases that have been formally established as caused by cigarette smoking and are included in official estimates of smoking-attributable mortality in the United States. However, if smoking causes additional diseases, these official estimates may significantly underestimate the number of deaths attributable to smoking. METHODS: We pooled data from five contemporary U.S. cohort studies including 421,378 men and 532,651 women 55 years of age or older. Participants were followed from 2000 through 2011, and relative risks and 95% confidence intervals were estimated with the use of Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for age, race, educational level, daily alcohol consumption, and cohort. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, there were 181,377 deaths, including 16,475 among current smokers. Overall, approximately 17% of the excess mortality among current smokers was due to associations with causes that are not currently established as attributable to smoking. These included associations between current smoking and deaths from renal failure (relative risk, 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7 to 2.3), intestinal ischemia (relative risk, 6.0; 95% CI, 4.5 to 8.1), hypertensive heart disease (relative risk, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.9 to 3.0), infections (relative risk, 2.3; 95% CI, 2.0 to 2.7), various respiratory diseases (relative risk, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.6 to 2.4), breast cancer (relative risk, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2 to 1.5), and prostate cancer (relative risk, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2 to 1.7). Among former smokers, the relative risk for each of these outcomes declined as the number of years since quitting increased. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial portion of the excess mortality among current smokers between 2000 and 2011 was due to associations with diseases that have not been formally established as caused by smoking. These associations should be investigated further and, when appropriate, taken into account when the mortality burden of smoking is investigated. (Funded by the American Cancer Society.).

Sixty years of CA: a cancer journal for clinicians.

The first issue of CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians was published in November of 1950. On the 60th anniversary of that date, we briefly review several seminal contributions to oncology and cancer control published in our journal during its first decade.

50-year trends in smoking-related mortality in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The disease risks from cigarette smoking increased in the United States over most of the 20th century, first among male smokers and later among female smokers. Whether these risks have continued to increase during the past 20 years is unclear. METHODS: We measured temporal trends in mortality across three time periods (1959-1965, 1982-1988, and 2000-2010), comparing absolute and relative risks according to sex and self-reported smoking status in two historical cohort studies and in five pooled contemporary cohort studies, among participants who became 55 years of age or older during follow-up. RESULTS: For women who were current smokers, as compared with women who had never smoked, the relative risks of death from lung cancer were 2.73, 12.65, and 25.66 in the 1960s, 1980s, and contemporary cohorts, respectively; corresponding relative risks for male current smokers, as compared with men who had never smoked, were 12.22, 23.81, and 24.97. In the contemporary cohorts, male and female current smokers also had similar relative risks for death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (25.61 for men and 22.35 for women), ischemic heart disease (2.50 for men and 2.86 for women), any type of stroke (1.92 for men and 2.10 for women), and all causes combined (2.80 for men and 2.76 for women). Mortality from COPD among male smokers continued to increase in the contemporary cohorts in nearly all the age groups represented in the study and within each stratum of duration and intensity of smoking. Among men 55 to 74 years of age and women 60 to 74 years of age, all-cause mortality was at least three times as high among current smokers as among those who had never smoked. Smoking cessation at any age dramatically reduced death rates. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of death from cigarette smoking continues to increase among women and the increased risks are now nearly identical for men and women, as compared with persons who have never smoked. Among men, the risks associated with smoking have plateaued at the high levels seen in the 1980s, except for a continuing, unexplained increase in mortality from COPD.

American Cancer Society perspectives on environmental factors and cancer.

Cancer prevention is central to the mission of the American Cancer Society (ACS). The ACS's prevention activities take many forms, but are primarily focused on modifiable risk factors that have been demonstrated to have the largest impact on cancer risk in the general population (with particular emphasis on tobacco use because of its large impact on cancer), and well-proven policy and program interventions. The ACS addresses nutrition, physical inactivity and obesity, alcohol consumption, excessive sun exposure, prevention of certain chronic infections, and selected other environmental factors through a variety of venues, including consensus guidelines (eg, nutrition and physical activity, human papillomavirus vaccination) and developing educational materials for health care providers and the general public. In contrast to the broad definition of environmental factors used by the ACS and most other public health agencies, some members of the general public associate the term "environmental" only with toxic air and water pollutants and other, predominantly manmade, hazards that people encounter, often involuntarily, in their daily life. This article will provide an overview of the ACS's approach to the prevention of cancer associated with such toxic pollutants in the context of its mission and priorities with respect to cancer prevention.

A genome-wide association study identifies alleles in FGFR2 associated with risk of sporadic postmenopausal breast cancer.

We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of breast cancer by genotyping 528,173 SNPs in 1,145 postmenopausal women of European ancestry with invasive breast cancer and 1,142 controls. We identified four SNPs in intron 2 of FGFR2 (which encodes a receptor tyrosine kinase and is amplified or overexpressed in some breast cancers) that were highly associated with breast cancer and confirmed this association in 1,776 affected individuals and 2,072 controls from three additional studies. Across the four studies, the association with all four SNPs was highly statistically significant (P(trend) for the most strongly associated SNP (rs1219648) = 1.1 x 10(-10); population attributable risk = 16%). Four SNPs at other loci most strongly associated with breast cancer in the initial GWAS were not associated in the replication studies. Our summary results from the GWAS are available online in a form that should speed the identification of additional risk loci.

Genome-wide association study of prostate cancer identifies a second risk locus at 8q24.

Recently, common variants on human chromosome 8q24 were found to be associated with prostate cancer risk. While conducting a genome-wide association study in the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility project with 550,000 SNPs in a nested case-control study (1,172 cases and 1,157 controls of European origin), we identified a new association at 8q24 with an independent effect on prostate cancer susceptibility. The most significant signal is 70 kb centromeric to the previously reported SNP, rs1447295, but shows little evidence of linkage disequilibrium with it. A combined analysis with four additional studies (total: 4,296 cases and 4,299 controls) confirms association with prostate cancer for rs6983267 in the centromeric locus (P = 9.42 x 10(-13); heterozygote odds ratio (OR): 1.26, 95% confidence interval (c.i.): 1.13-1.41; homozygote OR: 1.58, 95% c.i.: 1.40-1.78). Each SNP remained significant in a joint analysis after adjusting for the other (rs1447295 P = 1.41 x 10(-11); rs6983267 P = 6.62 x 10(-10)). These observations, combined with compelling evidence for a recombination hotspot between the two markers, indicate the presence of at least two independent loci within 8q24 that contribute to prostate cancer in men of European ancestry. We estimate that the population attributable risk of the new locus, marked by rs6983267, is higher than the locus marked by rs1447295 (21% versus 9%).

A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies to identify prostate cancer susceptibility loci associated with aggressive and non-aggressive disease.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple common genetic variants associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer (PrCa), but these explain less than one-third of the heritability. To identify further susceptibility alleles, we conducted a meta-analysis of four GWAS including 5953 cases of aggressive PrCa and 11 463 controls (men without PrCa). We computed association tests for approximately 2.6 million SNPs and followed up the most significant SNPs by genotyping 49 121 samples in 29 studies through the international PRACTICAL and BPC3 consortia. We not only confirmed the association of a PrCa susceptibility locus, rs11672691 on chromosome 19, but also showed an association with aggressive PrCa [odds ratio = 1.12 (95% confidence interval 1.03-1.21), P = 1.4 × 10(-8)]. This report describes a genetic variant which is associated with aggressive PrCa, which is a type of PrCa associated with a poorer prognosis.

Common genetic variants in the PSCA gene influence gene expression and bladder cancer risk.

Genome-wide association studies have identified a SNP, rs2294008, on 8q24.3 within the prostate stem cell antigen (PSCA) gene, as a risk factor for bladder cancer. To fine-map this region, we imputed 642 SNPs within 100 Kb of rs2294008 in addition to 33 markers genotyped in one of the reported genome-wide association study in 8,652 subjects. A multivariable logistic regression model adjusted for rs2294008 revealed a unique signal, rs2978974 (r(2) = 0.02, D' = 0.19 with rs2294008). In the combined analysis of 5,393 cases and 7,324 controls, we detected a per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.17, P = 5.8 × 10(-5)] for rs2294008 and OR = 1.07 (95% CI = 1.02-1.13, P = 9.7 × 10(-3)) for rs2978974. The effect was stronger in carriers of both risk variants (OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.08-1.41, P = 1.8 × 10(-3)) and there was a significant multiplicative interaction (P = 0.035) between these two SNPs, which requires replication in future studies. The T risk allele of rs2294008 was associated with increased PSCA mRNA expression in two sets of bladder tumor samples (n = 36, P = 0.0007 and n = 34, P = 0.0054) and in normal bladder samples (n = 35, P = 0.0155), but rs2978974 was not associated with PSCA expression. SNP rs2978974 is located 10 Kb upstream of rs2294008, within an alternative untranslated first exon of PSCA. The non-risk allele G of rs2978974 showed strong interaction with nuclear proteins from five cell lines tested, implying a regulatory function. In conclusion, a joint effect of two PSCA SNPs, rs2294008 and rs2978974, suggests that both variants may be important for bladder cancer susceptibility, possibly through different mechanisms that influence the control of mRNA expression and interaction with regulatory factors.

Additive interactions between susceptibility single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified in genome-wide association studies and breast cancer risk factors in the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium.

Additive interactions can have public health and etiological implications but are infrequently reported. We assessed departures from additivity on the absolute risk scale between 9 established breast cancer risk factors and 23 susceptibility single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified from genome-wide association studies among 10,146 non-Hispanic white breast cancer cases and 12,760 controls within the National Cancer Institute's Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium. We estimated the relative excess risk due to interaction and its 95% confidence interval for each pairwise combination of SNPs and nongenetic risk factors using age- and cohort-adjusted logistic regression models. After correction for multiple comparisons, we identified a statistically significant relative excess risk due to interaction (uncorrected P = 4.51 × 10(-5)) between a SNP in the DNA repair protein RAD51 homolog 2 gene (RAD51L1; rs10483813) and body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)). We also compared additive and multiplicative polygenic risk prediction models using per-allele odds ratio estimates from previous studies for breast-cancer susceptibility SNPs and observed that the multiplicative model had a substantially better goodness of fit than the additive model.

The chromosome 2p21 region harbors a complex genetic architecture for association with risk for renal cell carcinoma.

In follow-up of a recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) that identified a locus in chromosome 2p21 associated with risk for renal cell carcinoma (RCC), we conducted a fine mapping analysis of a 120 kb region that includes EPAS1. We genotyped 59 tagged common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 2278 RCC and 3719 controls of European background and observed a novel signal for rs9679290 [P = 5.75 × 10(-8), per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17-1.39]. Imputation of common SNPs surrounding rs9679290 using HapMap 3 and 1000 Genomes data yielded two additional signals, rs4953346 (P = 4.09 × 10(-14)) and rs12617313 (P = 7.48 × 10(-12)), both highly correlated with rs9679290 (r(2) > 0.95), but interestingly not correlated with the two SNPs reported in the GWAS: rs11894252 and rs7579899 (r(2) < 0.1 with rs9679290). Genotype analysis of rs12617313 confirmed an association with RCC risk (P = 1.72 × 10(-9), per-allele OR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.18-1.39) In conclusion, we report that chromosome 2p21 harbors a complex genetic architecture for common RCC risk variants.

Body mass index and risk of death in Asian Americans.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality among Asian Americans. METHODS: We pooled data from prospective cohort studies with 20 672 Asian American adults with no baseline cancer or heart disease history. We estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A high, but not low, BMI was associated with increased risk of total mortality among individuals aged 35 to 69 years. The BMI was not related to total mortality among individuals aged 70 years and older. With a BMI 22.5 to < 25 as the reference category among never-smokers aged 35 to 69 years, the hazard ratios for total mortality were 0.83 (95% CI = 0.47, 1.47) for BMI 15 to < 18.5; 0.91 (95% CI = 0.62, 1.32) for BMI 18.5 to < 20; 1.08 (95% CI = 0.86, 1.36) for BMI 20 to < 22.5; 1.14 (95% CI = 0.90, 1.44) for BMI 25 to < 27.5; 1.13 (95% CI = 0.79, 1.62) for BMI 27.5 to < 30; 1.82 (95% CI = 1.25, 2.64) for BMI 30 to < 35; and 2.09 (95% CI = 1.06, 4.11) for BMI 35 to 50. Higher BMI was also related to increased cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: High BMI is associated with increased mortality risk among Asian Americans.

Spatial analysis of air pollution and mortality in California.

RATIONALE: Although substantial scientific evidence suggests that chronic exposure to ambient air pollution contributes to premature mortality, uncertainties exist in the size and consistency of this association. Uncertainty may arise from inaccurate exposure assessment. OBJECTIVES: To assess the associations of three types of air pollutants (fine particulate matter, ozone [O3], and nitrogen dioxide [NO2]) with the risk of mortality in a large cohort of California adults using individualized exposure assessments. METHODS: For fine particulate matter and NO2, we used land use regression models to derive predicted individualized exposure at the home address. For O3, we estimated exposure with an inverse distance weighting interpolation. Standard and multilevel Cox survival models were used to assess the association between air pollution and mortality. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Data for 73,711 subjects who resided in California were abstracted from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention II Study cohort, with baseline ascertainment of individual characteristics in 1982 and follow-up of vital status through to 2000. Exposure data were derived from government monitors. Exposure to fine particulate matter, O3, and NO2 was positively associated with ischemic heart disease mortality. NO2 (a marker for traffic pollution) and fine particulate matter were also associated with mortality from all causes combined. Only NO2 had significant positive association with lung cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Using the first individualized exposure assignments in this important cohort, we found positive associations of fine particulate matter, O3, and NO2 with mortality. The positive associations of NO2 suggest that traffic pollution relates to premature death.

Characterizing genetic risk at known prostate cancer susceptibility loci in African Americans.

GWAS of prostate cancer have been remarkably successful in revealing common genetic variants and novel biological pathways that are linked with its etiology. A more complete understanding of inherited susceptibility to prostate cancer in the general population will come from continuing such discovery efforts and from testing known risk alleles in diverse racial and ethnic groups. In this large study of prostate cancer in African American men (3,425 prostate cancer cases and 3,290 controls), we tested 49 risk variants located in 28 genomic regions identified through GWAS in men of European and Asian descent, and we replicated associations (at p≤0.05) with roughly half of these markers. Through fine-mapping, we identified nearby markers in many regions that better define associations in African Americans. At 8q24, we found 9 variants (p≤6×10(-4)) that best capture risk of prostate cancer in African Americans, many of which are more common in men of African than European descent. The markers found to be associated with risk at each locus improved risk modeling in African Americans (per allele OR = 1.17) over the alleles reported in the original GWAS (OR = 1.08). In summary, in this detailed analysis of the prostate cancer risk loci reported from GWAS, we have validated and improved upon markers of risk in some regions that better define the association with prostate cancer in African Americans. Our findings with variants at 8q24 also reinforce the importance of this region as a major risk locus for prostate cancer in men of African ancestry.

Fine mapping of a region of chromosome 11q13 reveals multiple independent loci associated with risk of prostate cancer.

Genome-wide association studies have identified prostate cancer susceptibility alleles on chromosome 11q13. As part of the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) Initiative, the region flanking the most significant marker, rs10896449, was fine mapped in 10 272 cases and 9123 controls of European origin (10 studies) using 120 common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected by a two-staged tagging strategy using HapMap SNPs. Single-locus analysis identified 18 SNPs below genome-wide significance (P< 10(-8)) with rs10896449 the most significant (P= 7.94 × 10(-19)). Multi-locus models that included significant SNPs sequentially identified a second association at rs12793759 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.14, P= 4.76 × 10(-5), adjusted P= 0.004] that is independent of rs10896449 and remained significant after adjustment for multiple testing within the region. rs10896438, a proxy of previously reported rs12418451 (r(2)= 0.96), independent of both rs10896449 and rs12793759 was detected (OR = 1.07, P= 5.92 × 10(-3), adjusted P= 0.054). Our observation of a recombination hotspot that separates rs10896438 from rs10896449 and rs12793759, and low linkage disequilibrium (rs10896449-rs12793759, r(2)= 0.17; rs10896449-rs10896438, r(2)= 0.10; rs12793759-rs10896438, r(2)= 0.12) corroborate our finding of three independent signals. By analysis of tagged SNPs across ∼123 kb using next generation sequencing of 63 controls of European origin, 1000 Genome and HapMap data, we observed multiple surrogates for the three independent signals marked by rs10896449 (n= 31), rs10896438 (n= 24) and rs12793759 (n= 8). Our results indicate that a complex architecture underlying the common variants contributing to prostate cancer risk at 11q13. We estimate that at least 63 common variants should be considered in future studies designed to investigate the biological basis of the multiple association signals.

Large-scale fine mapping of the HNF1B locus and prostate cancer risk.

Previous genome-wide association studies have identified two independent variants in HNF1B as susceptibility loci for prostate cancer risk. To fine-map common genetic variation in this region, we genotyped 79 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the 17q12 region harboring HNF1B in 10 272 prostate cancer cases and 9123 controls of European ancestry from 10 case-control studies as part of the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) initiative. Ten SNPs were significantly related to prostate cancer risk at a genome-wide significance level of P < 5 × 10(-8) with the most significant association with rs4430796 (P = 1.62 × 10(-24)). However, risk within this first locus was not entirely explained by rs4430796. Although modestly correlated (r(2)= 0.64), rs7405696 was also associated with risk (P = 9.35 × 10(-23)) even after adjustment for rs4430769 (P = 0.007). As expected, rs11649743 was related to prostate cancer risk (P = 3.54 × 10(-8)); however, the association within this second locus was stronger for rs4794758 (P = 4.95 × 10(-10)), which explained all of the risk observed with rs11649743 when both SNPs were included in the same model (P = 0.32 for rs11649743; P = 0.002 for rs4794758). Sequential conditional analyses indicated that five SNPs (rs4430796, rs7405696, rs4794758, rs1016990 and rs3094509) together comprise the best model for risk in this region. This study demonstrates a complex relationship between variants in the HNF1B region and prostate cancer risk. Further studies are needed to investigate the biological basis of the association of variants in 17q12 with prostate cancer.

Body-mass index and mortality among 1.46 million white adults.

BACKGROUND: A high body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) is associated with increased mortality from cardiovascular disease and certain cancers, but the precise relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality remains uncertain. METHODS: We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for an association between BMI and all-cause mortality, adjusting for age, study, physical activity, alcohol consumption, education, and marital status in pooled data from 19 prospective studies encompassing 1.46 million white adults, 19 to 84 years of age (median, 58). RESULTS: The median baseline BMI was 26.2. During a median follow-up period of 10 years (range, 5 to 28), 160,087 deaths were identified. Among healthy participants who never smoked, there was a J-shaped relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality. With a BMI of 22.5 to 24.9 as the reference category, hazard ratios among women were 1.47 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 1.33 to 1.62) for a BMI of 15.0 to 18.4; 1.14 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.22) for a BMI of 18.5 to 19.9; 1.00 (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.04) for a BMI of 20.0 to 22.4; 1.13 (95% CI, 1.09 to 1.17) for a BMI of 25.0 to 29.9; 1.44 (95% CI, 1.38 to 1.50) for a BMI of 30.0 to 34.9; 1.88 (95% CI, 1.77 to 2.00) for a BMI of 35.0 to 39.9; and 2.51 (95% CI, 2.30 to 2.73) for a BMI of 40.0 to 49.9. In general, the hazard ratios for the men were similar. Hazard ratios for a BMI below 20.0 were attenuated with longer-term follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In white adults, overweight and obesity (and possibly underweight) are associated with increased all-cause mortality. All-cause mortality is generally lowest with a BMI of 20.0 to 24.9.

Performance of common genetic variants in breast-cancer risk models.

BACKGROUND: Genomewide association studies have identified multiple genetic variants associated with breast cancer. The extent to which these variants add to existing risk-assessment models is unknown. METHODS: We used information on traditional risk factors and 10 common genetic variants associated with breast cancer in 5590 case subjects and 5998 control subjects, 50 to 79 years of age, from four U.S. cohort studies and one case-control study from Poland to fit models of the absolute risk of breast cancer. With the use of receiver-operating-characteristic curve analysis, we calculated the area under the curve (AUC) as a measure of discrimination. By definition, random classification of case and control subjects provides an AUC of 50%; perfect classification provides an AUC of 100%. We calculated the fraction of case subjects in quintiles of estimated absolute risk after the addition of genetic variants to the traditional risk model. RESULTS: The AUC for a risk model with age, study and entry year, and four traditional risk factors was 58.0%; with the addition of 10 genetic variants, the AUC was 61.8%. About half the case subjects (47.2%) were in the same quintile of risk as in a model without genetic variants; 32.5% were in a higher quintile, and 20.4% were in a lower quintile. CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion of newly discovered genetic factors modestly improved the performance of risk models for breast cancer. The level of predicted breast-cancer risk among most women changed little after the addition of currently available genetic information.

Prediction of breast cancer risk by genetic risk factors, overall and by hormone receptor status.

OBJECTIVE: There is increasing interest in adding common genetic variants identified through genome wide association studies (GWAS) to breast cancer risk prediction models. First results from such models showed modest benefits in terms of risk discrimination. Heterogeneity of breast cancer as defined by hormone-receptor status has not been considered in this context. In this study we investigated the predictive capacity of 32 GWAS-detected common variants for breast cancer risk, alone and in combination with classical risk factors, and for tumours with different hormone receptor status. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Within the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium, we analysed 6009 invasive breast cancer cases and 7827 matched controls of European ancestry, with data on classical breast cancer risk factors and 32 common gene variants identified through GWAS. Discriminatory ability with respect to breast cancer of specific hormone receptor-status was assessed with the age adjusted and cohort-adjusted concordance statistic (AUROC(a)). Absolute risk scores were calculated with external reference data. Integrated discrimination improvement was used to measure improvements in risk prediction. RESULTS: We found a small but steady increase in discriminatory ability with increasing numbers of genetic variants included in the model (difference in AUROC(a) going from 2.7% to 4%). Discriminatory ability for all models varied strongly by hormone receptor status. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Adding information on common polymorphisms provides small but statistically significant improvements in the quality of breast cancer risk prediction models. We consistently observed better performance for receptor-positive cases, but the gain in discriminatory quality is not sufficient for clinical application.

Radon and nonrespiratory mortality in the American Cancer Society cohort.

Radon is a known cause of human lung cancer. Previously, the authors observed a significant positive association between mean county-level residential radon concentrations and lung cancer mortality in the Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II), a large prospective study of nearly 1.2 million participants recruited in 1982 by the American Cancer Society. There was also a significant positive association with mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Because it is unclear whether radon is associated with mortality from other malignant or nonmalignant disease, the authors examined the association between radon and nonrespiratory mortality in the CPS-II. Mean county-level residential radon concentrations (mean = 53.5 (standard deviation: 38.0) Bq/m(3)) were linked to participants by their zip code at enrollment. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for all-cause (excluding lung cancer and respiratory mortality) and cause-specific mortality associated with radon concentrations. A total of 811,961 participants in 2,754 counties were analyzed, including 265,477 deaths through 2006. There were no clear associations between radon and nonrespiratory mortality in the CPS-II. These findings suggest that residential radon is not associated with any other mortality beyond lung cancer or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.