Identifying predictors of translocation success in rare plant species.

The fundamental goal of a rare plant translocation is to create self-sustaining populations with the evolutionary resilience to persist in the long term. Yet, most plant translocation syntheses focus on a few factors influencing short-term benchmarks of success (e.g., survival and reproduction). Short-term benchmarks can be misleading when trying to infer future growth and viability because the factors that promote establishment may differ from those required for long-term persistence. We assembled a large (n = 275) and broadly representative data set of well-documented and monitored (7.9 years on average) at-risk plant translocations to identify the most important site attributes, management techniques, and species' traits for six life-cycle benchmarks and population metrics of translocation success. We used the random forest algorithm to quantify the relative importance of 29 predictor variables for each metric of success. Drivers of translocation outcomes varied across time frames and success metrics. Management techniques had the greatest relative influence on the attainment of life-cycle benchmarks and short-term population trends, whereas site attributes and species' traits were more important for population persistence and long-term trends. Specifically, large founder sizes increased the potential for reproduction and recruitment into the next generation, whereas declining habitat quality and the outplanting of species with low seed production led to increased extinction risks and a reduction in potential reproductive output in the long-term, respectively. We also detected novel interactions between some of the most important drivers, such as an increased probability of next-generation recruitment in species with greater seed production rates, but only when coupled with large founder sizes. Because most significant barriers to plant translocation success can be overcome by improving techniques or resolving site-level issues through early intervention and management, we suggest that by combining long-term monitoring with adaptive management, translocation programs can enhance the prospects of achieving long-term success.

Identificación de pronosticadores del éxito de reubicación en especies raras de plantas Resumen El objetivo fundamental de la reubicación de plantas raras es la creación de poblaciones autosuficientes con resiliencia evolutiva que persistan a la larga. De todas maneras, la mayoría de las síntesis de estas reubicaciones se enfocan en unos cuantos factores que influyen sobre los parámetros a corto plazo del éxito (supervivencia y reproducción). Los parámetros a corto plazo pueden ser engañosos si se intenta inferir el crecimiento y la viabilidad en el futuro ya que los factores que promueven el establecimiento pueden diferir de aquellos requeridos para la persistencia a largo plazo. Ensamblamos un conjunto grande de datos representativos en general (n = 275) de las reubicaciones de plantas en riesgo bien documentadas y monitoreadas (7.9 años en promedio) para identificar los atributos de sitio más importantes, las técnicas de manejo y los rasgos de las especies para seis parámetros de ciclos de vida y medidas poblacionales del éxito de reubicación. Usamos el algoritmo de bosque aleatorio para cuantificar la importancia relativa de las 29 variables de pronosticadores para cada medida del éxito. Los factores en los resultados de las reubicaciones variaron con los marcos temporales y las medidas de éxito. Las técnicas de manejo tuvieron la mayor influencia relativa sobre la obtención de parámetros de ciclos de vida y tendencias poblacionales a corto plazo, mientras que los atributos de sitio y los rasgos de la especie fueron más importantes para la persistencia poblacional y las tendencias a largo plazo. En específico, las grandes cantidades de fundadores incrementaron el potencial de reproducción y reclutamiento de la siguiente generación, mientras que la declinación de la calidad del hábitat incrementó el riesgo de extinción y el trasplante de especies con baja producción de semillas redujo el rendimiento del potencial reproductivo a la larga. También detectamos interacciones novedosas entre algunos de los factores más importantes, como el aumento en la probabilidad del reclutamiento en la siguiente generación en especies con tasas mayores de producción de semillas, pero sólo cuando se emparejó con grandes cantidades de fundadores. Ya que las barreras más significativas para el éxito de la reubicación de plantas pueden superarse al mejorar las técnicas o resolver los temas a nivel de sitio por medio de un manejo y una intervención temprana, sugerimos que con la combinación del monitoreo a largo plazo con el manejo adaptativo los programas de reubicación pueden aumentar el prospecto de lograr el éxito a largo plazo.

N-P co-limitation of primary production and response of arthropods to N and P in early primary succession on Mount St. Helens volcano.

BACKGROUND: The effect of low nutrient availability on plant-consumer interactions during early succession is poorly understood. The low productivity and complexity of primary successional communities are expected to limit diversity and abundance of arthropods, but few studies have examined arthropod responses to enhanced nutrient supply in this context. We investigated the effects of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) addition on plant productivity and arthropod abundance on 24-yr-old soils at Mount St. Helens volcano. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We measured the relative abundance of eight arthropod orders and five families in plots that received N, P, or no nutrients for 3-5 years. We also measured plant % cover, leaf %N, and plant diversity. Vegetation responded rapidly to N addition but showed a lagged response to P that, combined with evidence of increased N fixation, suggested P-limitation to N availability. After 3 yrs of fertilization, orthopterans (primarily Anabrus simplex (Tettigoniidae) and Melanoplus spp (Acrididae)) showed a striking attraction to P addition plots, while no other taxa responded to fertilization. After 5 yrs of fertilization, orthopteran density in the same plots increased 80%-130% with P addition and 40% with N. Using structural equation modeling, we show that in year 3 orthopteran abundance was associated with a P-mediated increase in plant cover (or correlated increases in resource quality), whereas in year 5 orthopteran density was not related to cover, diversity or plant %N, but rather to unmeasured effects of P, such as its influence on other aspects of resource quality. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The marked surprising response to P by orthopterans, combined with a previous observation of P-limitation in lepidopteran herbivores at these sites, suggests that P-mediated effects of food quantity or quality are critical to insect herbivores in this N-P co-limited primary successional system. Our results also support a previous suggestion that the availability of N in these soils is P-limited.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal distribution in relation to microsites on recent volcanic substrates of Mt. Koma, Hokkaido, Japan.

Mycorrhizae occur in most terrestrial ecosystems and are crucial to understanding community structure and function. However, their role in primary succession is poorly understood. This study examined the mycorrhizal colonization of six plant species in relation to microsite types on recent volcanic substrates on the summit of Mt. Koma, Hokkaido, Japan. The six microsites were flat, rill, near rock, Carextussock, Polygonum patch and Salix patch. Carex oxyandra was nonmycorrhizal and Agrostis scabra and Campanula lasiocarpa were arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) at all microsites examined. Agrostis AM colonization levels did not differ across microsites. Near rock Campanula roots contained significantly more hyphae than at flat and Polygonum patch microsites, and rill and Carex tussock Campanula more arbuscules than at Polygonum patches. Penstemon frutescens was found to be facultatively mycotrophic with AM colonization occurring in roots of Penstemon growing in Carex tussocks, Polygonum patches and near rocks. Polygonum weyrichii was found to be ectomycorrhizal. Polygonum located in rills and in Polygonum and Salix patches were more colonized than Polygonum in Carex patches. Salix reinii was heavily ectomycorrhizal.