Using electronic health records to estimate the prevalence of agitation in Alzheimer disease/dementia.

BACKGROUND: Agitation is a common neuropsychiatric symptom of Alzheimer disease (AD). Data are scarce regarding agitation prevalence among community-dwelling patients with AD. OBJECTIVE: To estimate agitation prevalence in a sample of US patients with AD/dementia overall and by AD/dementia disease severity, using data from electronic health records (EHR). METHODS: This retrospective database study examined community-dwelling patients with ≥1 EHR record indicating AD/dementia from January 2008 to June 2015 and no evidence of non-Alzheimer dementia during the 12-month preindex and postindex periods. Agitation was identified using diagnosis codes for dementia with behavioral disturbance and EHR abstracted notes records indicating agitation symptoms compiled from the International Psychogeriatric Association provisional consensus definition. RESULTS: Of 320 886 eligible patients (mean age, 76.4 y, 64.7% female), 143 160 (44.6%) had evidence of agitation during the observation period. Less than 5% of patients with agitation had a diagnosis code for behavioral disturbance. The most prevalent symptom categories among patients with agitation, preindex and postindex, were agitation (31.4% and 41.3%), falling (22.6% and 21.7%), and restlessness (18.3% and 23.3%). Among the 78 827 patients (24.6%) with known AD/dementia severity, agitation prevalence was 61.3%. Agitation during the observation period was most prevalent for moderate-to-severe and severe AD/dementia (74.6% and 68.3%, respectively) and lowest for mild AD/dementia (56.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Agitation prevalence was 44.6% overall and 61.3% among patients with staged AD/dementia. Behavioral disturbance appeared to be underdiagnosed. While agitation has previously been shown to be highly prevalent in the long-term care setting, this study indicates that it is also common among community-dwelling patients.

Do integrated health care systems provide lower-cost, higher-quality care?

A study Looking at quality and cost issues for integrated vs. non integrated physician practices yields some interesting findings.

Epidemiology and disease burden of pertussis in the United States among individuals aged 0-64 over a 10-year period (2006-2015).

Background: Pertussis incidence has increased in recent decades despite childhood vaccination programs and high vaccination rates. To quantify the burden of pertussis, incidence, healthcare resource utilization, and costs among pertussis patients were estimated in a US managed care setting.Methods: Patients aged 0-64 years with evidence of pertussis (ICD-9-CM codes 033.0, 033.9, 484.3, ICD-10-CM codes A37.0, A37.9) and commercial insurance from 1 January 2006-12 December 2015 were identified. Incidence rates were calculated and standardized to the 2010 US Census on age, sex, and geographic region. Healthcare costs and resource utilization were compared between patients and matched comparators (health plan members without pertussis).Results: From 2006 to 2015, 11,378 pertussis cases were identified. Adjusted pertussis incidence was 15.55 cases per 100,000 person-years. Incidence was highest among infants and children; however, 59.0% of total cases were among adolescents or adults. Average adjusted healthcare costs per episode were 3.17 times higher among pertussis patients versus comparators ($5195 versus $1637, p < .001). Stratifying by age group, adjusted incremental healthcare costs per episode were $5581, $827, $700, $1429, $2530, and $4849 for patients aged <1 year, 1-6 years, 7-10 years, 11-19 years, 20-49 years, and 50-64 years, respectively.Conclusions: Managing pertussis is associated with substantial economic burden. Incidence rate estimates from this study were higher than CDC-reported rates; however, similar overall trends were observed. Although pertussis incidence has been declining since CDC-recommended vaccination for all adults in 2012, this study highlights the importance of continued management and prevention strategies, especially among adolescents and adults as they represent an important source of transmission to infants.

Predicting and analyzing the COVID-19 epidemic in China: Based on SEIRD, LSTM and GWR models.

In December 2019, the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The epidemic quickly broke out and spread throughout the country. Now it becomes a pandemic that affects the whole world. In this study, three models were used to fit and predict the epidemic situation in China: a modified SEIRD (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Dead) dynamic model, a neural network method LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), and a GWR (Geographically Weighted Regression) model reflecting spatial heterogeneity. Overall, all the three models performed well with great accuracy. The dynamic SEIRD prediction APE (absolute percent error) of China had been ≤ 1.0% since Mid-February. The LSTM model showed comparable accuracy. The GWR model took into account the influence of geographical differences, with R2 = 99.98% in fitting and 97.95% in prediction. Wilcoxon test showed that none of the three models outperformed the other two at the significance level of 0.05. The parametric analysis of the infectious rate and recovery rate demonstrated that China's national policies had effectively slowed down the spread of the epidemic. Furthermore, the models in this study provided a wide range of implications for other countries to predict the short-term and long-term trend of COVID-19, and to evaluate the intensity and effect of their interventions.

Real-world effectiveness of umeclidinium/vilanterol versus fluticasone propionate/salmeterol as initial maintenance therapy for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): a retrospective cohort study.

Background and objective: Retrospective claims data in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) initiating maintenance therapy with inhaled fixed-dose combinations of long-acting muscarinic antagonist/long-acting ß2-agonist (LAMA/LABA) versus inhaled corticosteroid (ICS)/LABA have not been reported. Methods: Retrospective observational study in a COPD-diagnosed population of commercial and Medicare Advantage with Part D (MAPD) enrollees aged ≥40 years from a US health insurer database. Patients initiated umeclidinium/vilanterol (UMEC/VI [62.5/25 µg]) or fluticasone propionate/salmeterol (FP/SAL [250/50 µg]) between April 1, 2014 and August 31, 2016 (index date) and had 12 months continuous enrollment pre- and post-index. Exclusion criteria included an asthma diagnosis in the pre-index period/index date; ICS-, LABA-, or LAMA-containing therapy during the pre-index period; or pharmacy fills for both UMEC/VI and FP/SAL, multiple-inhaler triple therapy, a non-index therapy, or COPD exacerbation on the index date. Adherence (proportion of days covered [PDC] ≥80%) was modeled using weighted logistic regression following inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Weighted Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression following IPTW were performed for incidence of COPD exacerbation and escalation to multiple-inhaler triple therapy. Results: The study population included 5306 patients (1386 initiating UMEC/VI and 3920 initiating FP/SAL). Adjusted odds of adherence were 2.00 times greater among UMEC/VI than FP/SAL initiators (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.62─2.46; P<0.001). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for first exacerbation was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.74-1.01; P=0.067) among UMEC/VI versus FP/SAL initiators. UMEC/VI initiators had 35% lower adjusted risk of escalation to multiple-inhaler triple therapy (HR 0.65; 95% CI: 0.47-0.89; P=0.008) versus FP/SAL. On-treatment, UMEC/VI initiators had an adjusted 30% reduced risk of a first moderate/severe COPD exacerbation (HR 0.70; 95% CI: 0.54-0.90; P=0.006). Conclusion: Patients with COPD initiating UMEC/VI had higher adherence and longer time before escalation to multiple-inhaler triple therapy than FP/SAL initiators.

Evaluation of rescue medication use and medication adherence receiving umeclidinium/vilanterol versus tiotropium bromide/olodaterol.

Background: This was the first real-world head-to-head study comparing inhaled long-acting muscarinic antagonist/long-acting ß2-agonist fixed-dose combination treatments as maintenance therapy. Methods: Retrospective observational study including commercial, Medicare Advantage with Part D or Part D-only enrollees aged ≥40 years from the Optum Research Database. Patients initiated umeclidinium/vilanterol (UMEC/VI) or tiotropium bromide/olodaterol (TIO/OLO) between June 1, 2015 and November 30, 2016 (index date) with 12 months of pre- and post-index continuous enrollment. Outcomes were modeled following the inverse probability of treatment weighting. The primary endpoint, rescue medication use, was modeled using weighted ordinary least squares regression with bootstrapped variance estimation. Intent-to-treat analysis evaluated non-inferiority and superiority of UMEC/VI to TIO/OLO with thresholds of 0.30 and 0 units, respectively. On-treatment sensitivity analysis evaluated the superiority of UMEC/VI to TIO/OLO for rescue medication use. The secondary endpoint, medication adherence (proportion of days covered [PDC]≥80%), was evaluated using weighted logistic regression. Post hoc weighted Cox proportional hazards regression analysis evaluated escalation to multiple inhaler triple therapy (MITT). Results: The study population included 14,324 patients; 9549 initiated UMEC/VI and 4775 initiated TIO/OLO. During the 12-month post-index period, UMEC/VI initiators used 0.16 fewer adjusted mean units of rescue medication than TIO/OLO initiators (95% CI: -0.28, -0.04), meeting pre-specified non-inferiority (P<0.001) and superiority (P=0.005) criteria; the on-treatment sensitivity analysis for superiority was not statistically significant. Significantly more UMEC/VI than TIO/OLO initiators (28.6% vs 22.7%; P<0.001) achieved a clinically meaningful level (PDC≥80%) of medication adherence. The adjusted risk of escalation to MITT was similar between treatment groups (HR=0.93; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.06; P=0.268). Conclusion: UMEC/VI was superior to TIO/OLO for rescue medication use and UMEC/VI initiators had better medication adherence than TIO/OLO initiators. This study supports findings from a head-to-head trial that demonstrated significant, clinically meaningful improvements in lung function with UMEC/VI versus TIO/OLO.

Patient-reported outcomes of dual bronchodilator fixed-dose combination versus bronchodilator monotherapy in individuals with COPD.

Background: This study compared real-world patient-reported outcomes (PROs) measured by the Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ), the London Chest Activities of Daily Living (LCADL) scale, and the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment (WPAI) questionnaire between individuals with COPD initiating LAMA/LABA fixed-dose combination (FDC) dual therapy versus either long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) or long-acting beta2-agonist (LABA) monotherapy. Methods: Individuals with COPD aged ≥40 years initiating a LAMA/LABA FDC dual therapy or a LAMA or LABA monotherapy (index date = first prescription date) between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2016 were identified from a large US administrative claims database. Individuals were excluded if they were prescribed an inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) or ICS/LABA two months prior to the index date or were diagnosed with cystic fibrosis, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, or asthma. The cohorts were propensity score matched (PSM) 1:1 for COPD severity using baseline measures. Each participant completed a survey. Results: Surveys were completed by 399 participants in the dual therapy cohort, and 718 participants in the monotherapy cohort. Following PSM, 379 participants remained in each cohort for analysis (monotherapy: 369 LAMA and 10 LABA). The dual therapy cohort reported fewer COPD-related symptoms (CCQ symptom score 2.75 vs 2.97, respectively, P=0.023), and, fewer limitations in leisure activities (LCADL leisure score 4.78 vs 5.17, respectively, P=0.021) versus the monotherapy cohort. No significant differences were found in the WPAI. A greater percentage of participants in the dual therapy cohort stayed on index therapy (63.1%) when compared with the monotherapy cohort (30.3%, P<0.0001). Conclusions: Only 30% of the participants prescribed monotherapy, usually with a LAMA, remained on index therapy alone at the time of survey administration. In the dual therapy cohort, 63% of the participants remained on the index medication and had fewer COPD-related symptoms and fewer limitations in leisure activities compared with participants in the monotherapy cohort.

A Retrospective Claims Analysis of Dual Bronchodilator Fixed-Dose Combination Versus Bronchodilator Monotherapy in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) increasingly receive combination bronchodilator therapies. Real world evidence for the benefits of combination therapy compared to monotherapy is lacking. METHODS: COPD patients aged ≥ 40 years initiating monotherapy (MT) with either a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) or long-acting beta2-agonist (LABA) or dual therapy (DT) with a LAMA/LABA fixed dose combination (FDC) between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2016 were identified from a large U.S. administrative claims database. Patients diagnosed with cystic fibrosis, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, or asthma were excluded. Cohorts were propensity score matched 1:1 using baseline measures (e.g., exacerbations, hospitalizations) as proxies for COPD severity to create balanced cohorts. RESULTS: Following propensity score matching (PSM), 1286 patients remained in each cohort for analysis. Patients were followed for approximately 1 year. Patients in the DT versus MT cohort had lower rates of exacerbations leading to hospitalization (incidence rate ratio 0.7886; p=0.019), lower mean COPD-related pharmacy costs per patient per month (PPPM) ($300 versus $379, respectively; p<0.001) and total costs PPPM ($990 versus $1203, respectively; p=0.003). This occurred despite lower mean COPD-related pharmacy fills PPPM in the DT versus MT cohorts (1.41 versus 1.51, respectively; p=0.038). Patients in the DT cohort had lower rates of switching (p<0.001) and augmentation (p<0.001), and higher rates of non-persistence (p<0.001) versus the MT cohort. Rates of discontinuation were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Patients in the DT cohort had lower rates of exacerbations leading to hospitalization, lower COPD-related pharmacy and total costs PPPM, and lower rates of switching and augmentation compared to patients in the MT cohort.

The role of nurse practitioners in primary healthcare.

OBJECTIVES: The employment of more nurse practitioners (NPs) is one of the most promising ways to expand the capacity of medical group practices. The objective of this study was to determine the association of NPs with patient-level cost and quality of care. STUDY DESIGN: Eighty-five primary care medical group practices were matched with 315,000 Medicare patients. Per beneficiary per year total costs and quality of care were calculated from Medicare claims data. Data were analyzed using multivariate regression analysis. METHODS: A national sample of primary care medical group practices based on responses to the 2009 Medical Group Management Association Performance Survey. The cost variable was annual risk-adjusted Medicare expenditures per capita for patients attributed to a practice. There were 5 quality of care measures. RESULTS: Employing NPs in primary care practices is associated with increased risk-adjusted patient cost for up to 1 NP for every 2 physicians, but cost decreases as the number of NPs per physician increases. There was little evidence of systematic association of NPs with quality of care or the practice's net revenue. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care medical group practices need to evaluate the alternate clinical roles of their NPs and develop models that optimize cost and quality of care. Practices that have employed more than 1 NP for every 2 physicians appear to have lower per capita Medicare spending with no adverse effects on quality. Research now needs to explore these causalities.

The relationships of physician practice characteristics to quality of care and costs.

BACKGROUND: Medical group practices are central to many of the proposals for health care reform, but little is known about the relationship between practice-level characteristics and the quality and cost of care. METHODS: Practice characteristics from a 2009 national survey of 211 group practices were linked to Medicare claims data for beneficiaries attributed to the practices. Multivariate regression was used to examine the relationship between practice characteristics and claims-computable measures of screening and monitoring, avoidable utilization, risk-adjusted per-beneficiary per-year (PBPY) costs, and the practice's net revenue. RESULTS: Several characteristics of group practices are predictive of screening and monitoring measures. Those measures, in turn, are predictive of lower values of avoidable utilization measures that contribute to higher PBPY costs. The effects of group practice characteristics on avoidable utilization, cost, and practice net revenue appear to work primarily through improved screening and monitoring. CONCLUSIONS: Practice characteristics influence costs indirectly through a set of statistically significant relationships among screening and monitoring measures and avoidable utilization. However, these relationships are not the only pathways connecting practice characteristics to cost and those additional pathways contain substantial "noise" adding uncertainty to the estimated direct effects. Some of the attributes thought to be important characteristics of accountable care organizations and medical homes appear to be associated with lower quality and no improvement in cost.

Medical group practice characteristics influencing inappropriate emergency department and avoidable hospitalization rates.

The inappropriate use of emergency departments (EDs) and ambulatory care sensitive hospital admission rates by patients attributed to a national sample of 212 medical group practices is documented, and the characteristics of practices that influence these rates are identified. Hospital-owned practices have higher nonemergent and emergent primary care treatable ED rates and higher ambulatory care sensitive hospitalization rates. Practices with electronic health records have lower inappropriate ED rates but those in rural areas have significantly higher rates. Practices with lower operating costs have higher inappropriate ED and ambulatory care sensitive rates, raising questions about the costs of preventing these incidents at the medical group practice level.