Bayesian Methods: A Means of Improving Statistical Power in Preclinical Neurotrauma?

The field of neurotrauma is grappling with the effects of the recently identified replication crisis. As such, care must be taken to identify and perform the most appropriate statistical analyses. This will prevent misuse of research resources and ensure that conclusions are reasonable and within the scope of the data. We anticipate that Bayesian statistical methods will see increasing use in the coming years. Bayesian methods integrate prior beliefs (or prior data) into a statistical model to merge historical information and current experimental data. These methods may improve the ability to detect differences between experimental groups (i.e., statistical power) when used appropriately. However, researchers need to be aware of the strengths and limitations of such approaches if they are to implement or evaluate these analyses. Ultimately, an approach using Bayesian methodologies may have substantial benefits to statistical power, but caution needs to be taken when identifying and defining prior beliefs.

Predicting Recovery Following Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Using a Clustering Algorithm.

Background: Recovery following total joint arthroplasty is patient-specific, yet groups of patients tend to fall into certain similar patterns of recovery. The purpose of this study was to identify and characterize recovery patterns following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) using patient-reported outcomes that represent distinct health domains. We hypothesized that recovery patterns could be defined and predicted using preoperative data. Methods: Adult patients were recruited from a large, urban academic center. To model postoperative responses to THA and TKA across domains such as physical health, mental health, and joint-specific measures, we employed a longitudinal clustering algorithm that incorporates each of these health domains. The clustering algorithm from multiple health domains allows the ability to define distinct recovery trajectories, which could then be predicted from preoperative and perioperative factors using a multinomial regression. Results: Four hundred forty-one of 1134 patients undergoing THA and 346 of 921 undergoing TKA met eligibility criteria and were used to define distinct patterns of recovery. The clustering algorithm was optimized for 3 distinct patterns of recovery that were observed in THA and TKA patients. Patients recovering from THA were divided into 3 groups: standard responders (50.8%), late mental responders (13.2%), and substandard responders (36.1%). Multivariable, multinomial regression suggested that these 3 groups had defined characteristics. Late mental responders tended to be obese (P = .05) and use more opioids (P = .01). Substandard responders had a larger number of comorbidities (P = .02) and used more opioids (P = .001). Patients recovering from TKA were divided among standard responders (55.8%), poor mental responders (24%), and poor physical responders (20.2%). Poor mental responders were more likely to be female (P = .04) and American Society of Anesthesiologists class III/IV (P = .004). Poor physical responders were more likely to be female (P = .03), younger (P = .04), American Society of Anesthesiologists III/IV (P = .04), use more opioids (P = .02), and be discharged to a nursing facility (P = .001). The THA and TKA models demonstrated areas under the curve of 0.67 and 0.72. Conclusions: This multidomain, longitudinal clustering analysis defines 3 distinct patterns in the recovery of THA and TKA patients, with most patients in both cohorts experiencing robust improvement, while others had equally well defined yet less optimal recovery trajectories that were either delayed in recovery or failed to achieve a desired outcome. Patients in the delayed recovery and poor outcome groups were slightly different between THA and TKA. These groups of patients with similar recovery patterns were defined by patient characteristics that include potentially modifiable comorbid factors. This research suggests that there are multiple defined recovery trajectories after THA and TKA, which provides a new perspective on THA and TKA recovery. Level of Evidence: III.

Predictors of response in PROMIS-global in a chronic low back pain specialty clinic: STarTBack and chronic overlapping pain conditions.

BACKGROUND: Tools, such as the STarTBack Screening Tool (SBT), have been developed to identify risks of progressing to chronic disability in low back pain (LBP) patients in the primary care population. However, less is known about predictors of change in function after treatment in the specialty care population. OBJECTIVE: We pursued a retrospective observational cohort study involving LBP patients seen in a multidisciplinary specialty clinic to assess which features can predict change in function at follow-up. METHODS: The SBT was administered at initial visit, and a variety of patient characteristics were available in the chart including the presence of chronic overlapping pain conditions (COPCs). Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System-10 (PROMIS-10) global physical health (PH) and global mental health (MH) were measured at baseline and at pragmatic time points during follow-up. Linear regression was used to estimate adjusted associations between available features and changes in PROMIS scores. RESULTS: 241 patients were followed for a mean of 17.0 ± 7.5 months. Mean baseline pain was 6.7 (SD 2.1), PROMIS-10 global MH score was 44.8 (SD 9.3), and PH score was 39.4 (SD 8.6). 29.7% were low-risk on the SBT, 41.8% were medium-risk, and 28.5% were high-risk. Mean change in MH and PH scores from baseline to the follow-up questionnaire were 0.86 (SD 8.11) and 2.39 (SD 7.52), respectively. Compared to low-risk patients, high-risk patients had a mean 4.35 points greater improvement in their MH score (p= 0.004) and a mean 3.54 points greater improvement in PH score (p= 0.006). Fewer COPCs also predicted greater improvement in MH and PH. CONCLUSIONS: SBT and the presence of COPC, which can be assessed at initial presentation to a specialty clinic, can predict change in PROMIS following treatment. Effort is needed to identify other factors that can help predict change in function after treatment in the specialty care setting.

Thresholding approaches for estimating paraspinal muscle fat infiltration using T1- and T2-weighted MRI: Comparative analysis using water-fat MRI.

Background: Paraspinal muscle fat infiltration is associated with spinal degeneration and low back pain, however, quantifying muscle fat using clinical magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques continues to be a challenge. Advanced MRI techniques, including chemical-shift encoding (CSE) based water-fat MRI, enable accurate measurement of muscle fat, but such techniques are not widely available in routine clinical practice. Methods: To facilitate assessment of paraspinal muscle fat using clinical imaging, we compared four thresholding approaches for estimating muscle fat fraction (FF) using T1- and T2-weighted images, with measurements from water-fat MRI as the ground truth: Gaussian thresholding, Otsu's method, K-mean clustering, and quadratic discriminant analysis. Pearson's correlation coefficients (r), mean absolute errors, and mean bias errors were calculated for FF estimates from T1- and T2-weighted MRI with water-fat MRI for the lumbar multifidus (MF), erector spinae (ES), quadratus lumborum (QL), and psoas (PS), and for all muscles combined. Results: We found that for all muscles combined, FF measurements from T1- and T2-weighted images were strongly positively correlated with measurements from the water-fat images for all thresholding techniques (r = 0.70-0.86, p < 0.0001) and that variations in inter-muscle correlation strength were much greater than variations in inter-method correlation strength. Conclusion: We conclude that muscle FF can be quantified using thresholded T1- and T2-weighted MRI images with relatively low bias and absolute error in relation to water-fat MRI, particularly in the MF and ES, and the choice of thresholding technique should depend on the muscle and clinical MRI sequence of interest.

Effect-Size Discrepancies in Literature Versus Raw Datasets from Experimental Spinal Cord Injury Studies: A CLIMBER Meta-Analysis.

Translation of spinal cord injury (SCI) therapeutics from pre-clinical animal studies into human studies is challenged by effect size variability, irreproducibility, and misalignment of evidence used by pre-clinical versus clinical literature. Clinical literature values reproducibility, with the highest grade evidence (class 1) consisting of meta-analysis demonstrating large therapeutic efficacy replicating across multiple studies. Conversely, pre-clinical literature values novelty over replication and lacks rigorous meta-analyses to assess reproducibility of effect sizes across multiple articles. Here, we applied modified clinical meta-analysis methods to pre-clinical studies, comparing effect sizes extracted from published literature to raw data on individual animals from these same studies. Literature-extracted data (LED) from numerical and graphical outcomes reported in publications were compared with individual animal data (IAD) deposited in a federally supported repository of SCI data. The animal groups from the IAD were matched with the same cohorts in the LED for a direct comparison. We applied random-effects meta-analysis to evaluate predictors of neuroconversion in LED versus IAD. We included publications with common injury models (contusive injuries) and standardized end-points (open field assessments). The extraction of data from 25 published articles yielded n = 1841 subjects, whereas IAD from these same articles included n = 2441 subjects. We observed differences in the number of experimental groups and animals per group, insufficient reporting of dropout animals, and missing information on experimental details. Meta-analysis revealed differences in effect sizes across LED versus IAD stratifications, for instance, severe injuries had the largest effect size in LED (standardized mean difference [SMD = 4.92]), but mild injuries had the largest effect size in IAD (SMD = 6.06). Publications with smaller sample sizes yielded larger effect sizes, while studies with larger sample sizes had smaller effects. The results demonstrate the feasibility of combining IAD analysis with traditional LED meta-analysis to assess effect size reproducibility in SCI.

Evaluating and Updating the IMPACT Model to Predict Outcomes in Two Contemporary North American Traumatic Brain Injury Cohorts.

The International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) model is a widely recognized prognostic model applied after traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, it was developed with patient cohorts that may not reflect modern practice patterns in North America. We analyzed data from two sources: the placebo arm of the phase II double-blinded, multicenter, randomized controlled trial Prehospital Tranexamic Acid for TBI (TXA) cohort and an observational cohort with similar inclusion/exclusion criteria (Predictors of Low-risk Phenotypes after Traumatic Brain Injury Incorporating Proteomic Biomarker Signatures [PROTIPS] cohort). All three versions of the IMPACT model-core, extended, and laboratory-were evaluated for 6-month mortality (Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended [GOSE] = 1) and unfavorable outcomes (GOSE = 1-4). Calibration (intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [ROC-AUC]) were used to assess model performance. We then compared three model updating methods-recalibration in the large, logistic recalibration, and coefficient update-with the best update method determined by likelihood ratio tests. In our calibration analysis, recalibration improved both intercepts and slopes, indicating more accurate predicted probabilities when recalibration was done. Discriminative performance of the IMPACT models, measured by AUC, showed mortality prediction ROCs between 0.61 and 0.82 for the TXA cohort, with the coefficient updated Lab model achieving the highest at 0.84. Unfavorable outcomes had lower AUCs, ranging from 0.60 to 0.79. Similarly, in the PROTIPS cohort, AUCs for mortality ranged from 0.75 to 0.82, with the coefficient updated Lab model also showing superior performance (AUC 0.84). Unfavorable outcomes in this cohort presented AUCs from 0.67 to 0.73, consistently lower than mortality predictions. The closed testing procedure using likelihood ratio tests consistently identified the coefficient update model as superior, outperforming the original and recalibrated models across all cohorts. In our comprehensive evaluation of the IMPACT model, the coefficient updated models were the best performing across all cohorts through a structured closed testing procedure. Thus, standardization of model updating procedures is needed to reproducibly determine the best performing versions of IMPACT that reflect the specific characteristics of a dataset.

ATF3 is a neuron-specific biomarker for spinal cord injury and ischaemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Although many molecules have been investigated as biomarkers for spinal cord injury (SCI) or ischemic stroke, none of them are specifically induced in central nervous system (CNS) neurons following injuries with low baseline expression. However, neuronal injury constitutes a major pathology associated with SCI or stroke and strongly correlates with neurological outcomes. Biomarkers characterized by low baseline expression and specific induction in neurons post-injury are likely to better correlate with injury severity and recovery, demonstrating higher sensitivity and specificity for CNS injuries compared to non-neuronal markers or pan-neuronal markers with constitutive expressions. METHODS: In animal studies, young adult wildtype and global Atf3 knockout mice underwent unilateral cervical 5 (C5) SCI or permanent distal middle cerebral artery occlusion (pMCAO). Gene expression was assessed using RNA-sequencing and qRT-PCR, while protein expression was detected through immunostaining. Serum ATF3 levels in animal models and clinical human samples were measured using commercially available enzyme-linked immune-sorbent assay (ELISA) kits. RESULTS: Activating transcription factor 3 (ATF3), a molecular marker for injured dorsal root ganglion sensory neurons in the peripheral nervous system, was not expressed in spinal cord or cortex of naïve mice but was induced specifically in neurons of the spinal cord or cortex within 1 day after SCI or ischemic stroke, respectively. Additionally, ATF3 protein levels in mouse blood significantly increased 1 day after SCI or ischemic stroke. Importantly, ATF3 protein levels in human serum were elevated in clinical patients within 24 hours after SCI or ischemic stroke. Moreover, Atf3 knockout mice, compared to the wildtype mice, exhibited worse neurological outcomes and larger damage regions after SCI or ischemic stroke, indicating that ATF3 has a neuroprotective function. CONCLUSIONS: ATF3 is an easily measurable, neuron-specific biomarker for clinical SCI and ischemic stroke, with neuroprotective properties. HIGHLIGHTS: ATF3 was induced specifically in neurons of the spinal cord or cortex within 1 day after SCI or ischemic stroke, respectively. Serum ATF3 protein levels are elevated in clinical patients within 24 hours after SCI or ischemic stroke. ATF3 exhibits neuroprotective properties, as evidenced by the worse neurological outcomes and larger damage regions observed in Atf3 knockout mice compared to wildtype mice following SCI or ischemic stroke.