The Kidney Failure Risk Equation: Evaluation of Novel Input Variables including eGFR Estimated Using the CKD-EPI 2021 Equation in 59 Cohorts.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure in populations with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . However, the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR is now recommended for use but has not been fully tested in the context of KFRE. In 59 cohorts comprising 312,424 patients with CKD, the authors assessed the predictive performance and calibration associated with the use of the CKD-EPI 2021 equation and whether additional variables and accounting for the competing risk of death improves the KFRE's performance. The KFRE generally performed well using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR in populations with eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and was not improved by adding the 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. BACKGROUND: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict kidney failure risk in people with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . METHODS: Using 59 cohorts with 312,424 patients with CKD, we tested several modifications to the KFRE for their potential to improve the KFRE: using the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR, substituting 1-year average ACR for single-measure ACR and 1-year average eGFR in participants with high eGFR variability, and adding 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. We also assessed calibration of the KFRE in subgroups of eGFR and age before and after accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: The KFRE remained accurate and well calibrated overall using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR equation. The other modifications did not improve KFRE performance. In subgroups of eGFR 45-59 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and in older adults using the 5-year time horizon, the KFRE demonstrated systematic underprediction and overprediction, respectively. We developed and tested a new model with a spline term in eGFR and incorporating the competing risk of mortality, resulting in more accurate calibration in those specific subgroups but not overall. CONCLUSIONS: The original KFRE is generally accurate for eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 when using the CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Incorporating competing risk methodology and splines for eGFR may improve calibration in low-risk settings with longer time horizons. Including historical averages, eGFR slopes, or a competing risk design did not meaningfully alter KFRE performance in most circumstances.

Incidence and Outcomes of Patients Receiving Chronic Kidney Replacement Therapy Admitted to Scottish ICUs Between 2009 and 2019-A National Observational Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence and characteristics of ICU admissions in the Scottish population of patients treated with chronic kidney replacement therapy (KRT) over an 11-year period and determine factors associated with post-ICU admission mortality. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: We analyzed admissions to Scottish intensive care environments between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2019. PATIENTS: All patients receiving chronic KRT-including maintenance dialysis and kidney transplant-in Scotland. INTERVENTION: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Descriptive statistics and factors associated with mortality using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models. From 10,657 unique individuals registered in the Scottish Renal Registry over the 11-year study period and alive as of January 1, 2009, 1,402 adult patients were identified as being admitted to a Scottish critical care setting. Between 2009 and 2019, admissions to ICU increased in a nonlinear manner driven by increases in admissions for renal causes and elective cardiac surgery. The ICU admission rate was higher among patients on chronic dialysis than in kidney transplant recipients (59.1 vs 19.9 per 1,000 person-years), but post-ICU mortality was similar (about 24% at 30 d and 40% at 1 year). Admissions for renal reasons were most common (20.9%) in patients undergoing chronic dialysis, whereas kidney transplant recipients were most frequently admitted for pneumonia (19.3%) or sepsis (12.8%). Adjusted Cox PH models showed that receiving invasive ventilation and vasoactive drugs was associated with an increased risk of death at 30 days post-ICU admission (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.28-2.39 and 1.72; 95% CI, 1.28-2.31, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: With a growing population of kidney transplant recipients and the improved survival of patients on chronic dialysis, the number of ICU admissions is rising in the chronic KRT population. Mortality post-ICU admission is high for these patients.

Use of a wearable accelerometer to evaluate physical frailty in people receiving haemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: Physical frailty is a major health concern among people receiving haemodialysis (HD) for stage-5 chronic kidney disease (CKD-5). Wearable accelerometers are increasingly being recommended to objectively monitor activity levels in CKD-5 and recent research suggests they may also represent an innovative strategy to evaluate physical frailty in vulnerable populations. However, no study has yet explored whether wearable accelerometers may be utilised to assess frailty in the context of CKD-5-HD. Therefore, we aimed to examine the diagnostic performance of a research-grade wearable accelerometer in evaluating physical frailty in people receiving HD. METHODS: Fifty-nine people receiving maintenance HD [age = 62.3 years (SD = 14.9), 40.7% female] participated in this cross-sectional study. Participants wore a uniaxial accelerometer (ActivPAL) for seven consecutive days and the following measures were recorded: total number of daily steps and sit-to-stand transitions, number of daily steps walked with cadence < 60 steps/min, 60-79 steps/min, 80-99 steps/min, 100-119 steps/min, and ≥ 120 steps/min. The Fried phenotype was used to evaluate physical frailty. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were performed to examine the diagnostic accuracy of the accelerometer-derived measures in detecting physical frailty status. RESULTS: Participants classified as frail (n = 22, 37.3%) had a lower number of daily steps (2363 ± 1525 vs 3585 ± 1765, p = 0.009), daily sit-to-stand transitions (31.8 ± 10.3 vs 40.6 ± 12.1, p = 0.006), and lower number of steps walked with cadence of 100-119 steps/min (336 ± 486 vs 983 ± 797, p < 0.001) compared to their non-frail counterparts. In ROC analysis, the number of daily steps walked with cadence ≥ 100 steps/min exhibited the highest diagnostic performance (AUC = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.68-0.92, p < 0.001, cut-off ≤ 288 steps, sensitivity = 73%, specificity = 76%, PPV = 0.64, NPV = 0.82, accuracy = 75%) in detecting physical frailty. CONCLUSIONS: This study provided initial evidence that a wearable accelerometer may be a useful tool in evaluating physical frailty in people receiving HD. While the total number of daily steps and sit-to-stand transitions could significantly discriminate frailty status, the number of daily steps walked with cadences reflecting moderate to vigorous intensity of walking may be more useful in monitoring physical frailty in people receiving HD.

The Impact of Vaccination on Incidence and Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Patients with Kidney Failure in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Patients with kidney failure requiring KRT are at high risk of complications and death following SARS-CoV-2 infection, with variable antibody responses to vaccination reported. We investigated the effects of COVID-19 vaccination on the incidence of infection, hospitalization, and death from COVID-19 infection. METHODS: The study design was an observational data linkage cohort study. Multiple health care datasets were linked to ascertain all SARS-CoV-2 testing, vaccination, hospitalization, and mortality data for all patients treated with KRT in Scotland from the start of the pandemic over a period of 20 months. Descriptive statistics, survival analyses, and vaccine effectiveness were calculated. RESULTS: As of September 19, 2021, 93% (n=5281) of the established KRT population in Scotland had received two doses of an approved SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Over the study period, there were 814 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection (15.1% of the KRT population). Vaccine effectiveness rates against infection and hospitalization were 33% (95% CI, 0 to 52) and 38% (95% CI, 0 to 57), respectively. Within 28 days of a SARS-CoV-2-positive PCR test, 9.2% of fully vaccinated individuals died (7% patients on dialysis and 10% kidney transplant recipients). This compares to <0.1% of the vaccinated general Scottish population admitted to the hospital or dying due to COVID-19 during that period. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that a primary vaccine course of two doses has limited effect on COVID-19 infection and its complications in patients with KRT. Adjunctive strategies to reduce risk of both COVID-19 infection and its complications in this population are urgently required.

Incidence of Kidney Replacement Therapy and Subsequent Outcomes Among Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Findings From the ERA Registry.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: There is a dearth of data characterizing patients receiving kidney replacement therapy (KRT) for kidney failure due to systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and their clinical outcomes. The aim of this study was to describe trends in incidence and prevalence of KRT among these patients as well as to compare their outcomes versus those of patients treated with KRT for diseases other than SLE. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study based on kidney registry data. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Patients recorded in 14 registries of patients receiving KRT that provided data to the European Renal Association Registry between 1992 and 2016. PREDICTOR: SLE as cause of kidney failure. OUTCOMES: Incidence and prevalence of KRT, patient survival while receiving KRT, patient and graft survival after kidney transplant, and specific causes of death. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox regression models were fit to compare patient survival between the SLE and non-SLE groups, overall KRT, dialysis, and patient and graft survival after kidney transplant. RESULTS: In total, 1,826 patients commenced KRT for kidney failure due to SLE, representing an incidence of 0.80 per million population (pmp) per year. The incidence remained stable during the study period (annual percent change, 0.1% [95% CI, -0.6% to 0.8%]). Patient survival among patients with SLE receiving KRT was similar to survival in the comparator group (hazard ratio [HR], 1.11 [95% CI, 0.99-1.23]). After kidney transplant, the risk of death was greater among patients with SLE than among patients in the comparator group (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.02-1.53]), whereas the risk of all-cause graft failure was similar (HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 0.95-1.27]). Ten-year patient overall survival during KRT and patient and graft survival after kidney transplant improved over the study period (HRs of 0.71 [95% CI, 0.56-0.91], 0.43 [95% CI, 0.27-0.69], and 0.60 [95% CI, 0.43-0.84], respectively). Patients with SLE receiving KRT were significantly more likely to die of infections (24.8%) than patients in the comparator group (16.9%; P < 0.001). LIMITATIONS: No data were available on extrarenal manifestations of SLE, drug treatments, comorbidities, kidney transplant characteristics, or relapses of SLE. CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of patients with SLE receiving KRT has improved over time. Survival of patients with SLE who required KRT was similar compared with patients who required KRT for other causes of kidney failure. Survival following kidney transplants was worse among patients with SLE.

Prolonged SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding in patients with chronic kidney disease.

Recent World Health Organization guidance has aimed to provide pragmatic guidance acknowledging the role of sequential nasopharyngeal swabs taken >24 hours apart for SARS-CoV-2 in high-risk populations. Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are known to have an altered immune milieu which may be associated with a delay in viral clearance. Here, a cross-sectional observational study of 138 patients admitted with SARS-CoV-2 infection at two large regional hospitals in Scotland, UK examined the median time to two consecutive negative nasopharyngeal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 in an inpatient population. The median time from admission to the first of two consecutive negative nasopharyngeal swabs was 18 days (range = 1-44) in patients with CKD, compared with 11 days (range: 1-71) in patients without CKD (P = .0007). Multivariable linear regression analysis using explanatory variables of age, sex, SARS-CoV-2 disease severity, key comorbidities and renal function showed that declining estimated glomerular filtration rate was independently associated with prolonged time to viral clearance. Our data suggest that patients with CKD who are admitted to hospital with SARS-CoV-2 take longer to achieve sequential negative nasopharyngeal swab reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction results than those without CKD. This has implications for renal service provision, discharge planning and hospital capacity as well as a direct impact on patients due to extended hospital stay, anxiety and stigmatisation.

Conversion of Urine Protein-Creatinine Ratio or Urine Dipstick Protein to Urine Albumin-Creatinine Ratio for Use in Chronic Kidney Disease Screening and Prognosis : An Individual Participant-Based Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although measuring albuminuria is the preferred method for defining and staging chronic kidney disease (CKD), total urine protein or dipstick protein is often measured instead. OBJECTIVE: To develop equations for converting urine protein-creatinine ratio (PCR) and dipstick protein to urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) and to test their diagnostic accuracy in CKD screening and staging. DESIGN: Individual participant-based meta-analysis. SETTING: 12 research and 21 clinical cohorts. PARTICIPANTS: 919 383 adults with same-day measures of ACR and PCR or dipstick protein. MEASUREMENTS: Equations to convert urine PCR and dipstick protein to ACR were developed and tested for purposes of CKD screening (ACR ≥30 mg/g) and staging (stage A2: ACR of 30 to 299 mg/g; stage A3: ACR ≥300 mg/g). RESULTS: Median ACR was 14 mg/g (25th to 75th percentile of cohorts, 5 to 25 mg/g). The association between PCR and ACR was inconsistent for PCR values less than 50 mg/g. For higher PCR values, the PCR conversion equations demonstrated moderate sensitivity (91%, 75%, and 87%) and specificity (87%, 89%, and 98%) for screening (ACR >30 mg/g) and classification into stages A2 and A3, respectively. Urine dipstick categories of trace or greater, trace to +, and ++ for screening for ACR values greater than 30 mg/g and classification into stages A2 and A3, respectively, had moderate sensitivity (62%, 36%, and 78%) and high specificity (88%, 88%, and 98%). For individual risk prediction, the estimated 2-year 4-variable kidney failure risk equation using predicted ACR from PCR had discrimination similar to that of using observed ACR. LIMITATION: Diverse methods of ACR and PCR quantification were used; measurements were not always performed in the same urine sample. CONCLUSION: Urine ACR is the preferred measure of albuminuria; however, if ACR is not available, predicted ACR from PCR or urine dipstick protein may help in CKD screening, staging, and prognosis. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and National Kidney Foundation.

Vitamin K Supplementation to Improve Vascular Stiffness in CKD: The K4Kidneys Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Vascular calcification, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, is common among patients with CKD and is an independent contributor to increased vascular stiffness and vascular risk in this patient group. Vitamin K is a cofactor for proteins involved in prevention of vascular calcification. Whether or not vitamin K supplementation could improve arterial stiffness in patients with CKD is unknown. METHODS: To determine if vitamin K supplementation might improve arterial stiffness in patients in CKD, we conducted a parallel-group, double-blind, randomized trial in participants aged 18 or older with CKD stage 3b or 4 (eGFR 15-45 ml/min per 1.73 m2). We randomly assigned participants to receive 400 µg oral vitamin K2 or matching placebo once daily for a year. The primary outcome was the adjusted between-group difference in carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity at 12 months. Secondary outcomes included augmentation index, abdominal aortic calcification, BP, physical function, and blood markers of mineral metabolism and vascular health. We also updated a recently published meta-analysis of trials to include the findings of this study. RESULTS: We included 159 randomized participants in the modified intention-to-treat analysis, with 80 allocated to receive vitamin K and 79 to receive placebo. Mean age was 66 years, 62 (39%) were female, and 87 (55%) had CKD stage 4. We found no differences in pulse wave velocity at 12 months, augmentation index at 12 months, BP, B-type natriuretic peptide, or physical function. The updated meta-analysis showed no effect of vitamin K supplementation on vascular stiffness or vascular calcification measures. CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin K2 supplementation did not improve vascular stiffness or other measures of vascular health in this trial involving individuals with CKD. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER: Vitamin K therapy to improve vascular health in patients with chronic kidney disease, ISRCTN21444964 (www.isrctn.com).

Data from the ERA-EDTA Registry were examined for trends in excess mortality in European adults on kidney replacement therapy.

The objective of this study was to investigate whether the improvement in survival seen in patients on kidney replacement therapy reflects the enhanced survival of the general population. Patient and general population statistics were obtained from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry and the World Health Organization databases, respectively. Relative survival models were composed to examine trends over time in all-cause and cause-specific excess mortality, stratified by age and modality of kidney replacement therapy, and adjusted for sex, primary kidney disease and country. In total, 280,075 adult patients started kidney replacement therapy between 2002 and 2015. The excess mortality risk in these patients decreased by 16% per five years (relative excess mortality risk (RER) 0.84; 95% confidence interval 0.83-0.84). This reflected a 14% risk reduction in dialysis patients (RER 0.86; 0.85-0.86), and a 16% increase in kidney transplant recipients (RER 1.16; 1.07-1.26). Patients on dialysis showed a decrease in excess mortality risk of 28% per five years for atheromatous cardiovascular disease as the cause of death (RER 0.72; 0.70-0.74), 10% for non-atheromatous cardiovascular disease (RER 0.90; 0.88-0.92) and 10% for infections (RER 0.90; 0.87-0.92). Kidney transplant recipients showed stable excess mortality risks for most causes of death, although it did worsen in some subgroups. Thus, the increase in survival in patients on kidney replacement therapy is not only due to enhanced survival in the general population, but also due to improved survival in the patient population, primarily in dialysis patients.

Survival of patients treated with extended-hours haemodialysis in Europe: an analysis of the ERA-EDTA Registry.

BACKGROUND: Previous US studies have indicated that haemodialysis with ≥6-h sessions [extended-hours haemodialysis (EHD)] may improve patient survival. However, patient characteristics and treatment practices vary between the USA and Europe. We therefore investigated the effect of EHD three times weekly on survival compared with conventional haemodialysis (CHD) among European patients. METHODS: We included patients who were treated with haemodialysis between 2010 and 2017 from eight countries providing data to the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association Registry. Haemodialysis session duration and frequency were recorded once every year or at every change of haemodialysis prescription and were categorized into three groups: CHD (three times weekly, 3.5-4 h/treatment), EHD (three times weekly, ≥6 h/treatment) or other. In the primary analyses we attributed death to the treatment at the time of death and in secondary analyses to EHD if ever initiated. We compared mortality risk for EHD to CHD with causal inference from marginal structural models, using Cox proportional hazards models weighted for the inverse probability of treatment and censoring and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: From a total of 142 460 patients, 1338 patients were ever treated with EHD (three times, 7.1 ± 0.8 h/week) and 89 819 patients were treated exclusively with CHD (three times, 3.9 ± 0.2 h/week). Crude mortality rates were 6.0 and 13.5/100 person-years. In the primary analyses, patients treated with EHD had an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62-0.85] compared with patients treated with CHD. When we attributed all deaths to EHD after initiation, the HR for EHD was comparable to the primary analyses [HR 0.80 (95% CI 0.71-0.90)]. CONCLUSIONS: EHD is associated with better survival in European patients treated with haemodialysis three times weekly.

Long-term all-cause mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in Scottish children after initiation of renal replacement therapy: a national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Data on long-term outcomes in children who have received renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease are limited. METHODS: We studied long-term survival and incidence of fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and determinants of these outcomes in children who initiated RRT between 1961 and 2013 using data from the Scottish Renal Registry (SRR). Linkage to morbidity records was available from 1981. RESULTS: A total of 477 children of whom 55% were boys, almost 50% had congenital urinary tract disease (CAKUT), 10% received a transplant as the first mode of RRT and almost 60% were over 11 years of age at start of RRT were followed for a median of 17.8 years (interquartile range (IQR) 8.7-26.6 years). Survival was 87.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 84.0-90.1) at 10 years and 77.6% (95% CI 73.3-81.7) at 20 years. During a median follow-up of 14.96 years (IQR 7.1-22.9), 20.9% of the 381 patients with morbidity data available had an incident of CVD event. Age < 2 years at start of RRT, receiving dialysis rather than a kidney transplant and primary renal disease (PRD) other than CAKUT or glomerulonephritis (GN), were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality. Male sex, receiving dialysis rather than a kidney transplant and PRD other than CAKUT or GN, was associated with a higher risk of CVD incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality and CVD incidence among children receiving RRT are high. PRD and RRT modality were associated with increased risk of both all-cause mortality and CVD incidence.

The impact of age on patient tolerance of mycophenolate following kidney transplantation.

BACKGROUND: In Scotland, standard maintenance immunosuppression following kidney transplantation consists of mycophenolate (MPA), tacrolimus and prednisolone irrespective of recipient age. We analyzed the tolerability of this immunosuppression regimen and the association with transplant outcomes. METHODS: A national, multicentre retrospective analysis of patients transplanted in 2015 and 2016, comparing graft function, acute rejection, significant infection rates and immunosuppression dosing between patients aged 18 and 59 years (Group 1) and ≥60 years (Group 2). RESULTS: Of the 490 patients, 26% were aged ≥60 years. Acute rejection (AR) rates at 1 year were 15% and 11% in Groups 1 and 2, respectively. Full-dose MPA was poorly tolerated with 53% in Group 1 and 77% in Group 2 requiring dose reduction or cessation. Female gender and age ≥60 years were independent predictors for MPA dose changes. One year following MPA dose reduction, AR risk was low (5%) in Group 2, however, those remaining on full dose MPA had a 79% increased rate of serious infections. CONCLUSION: The majority of renal transplant recipients aged ≥60 fail to tolerate full-dose MPA. In this group, MPA dose reduction is associated with low rejection rates, but full-dose MPA is associated with high infection rates. We suggest that a tailored approach to immunosuppression in elderly recipients incorporating lower doses of MPA may be appropriate.

Minimum accelerometer wear-time for reliable estimates of physical activity and sedentary behaviour of people receiving haemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: Low levels of physical activity are implicated in low life expectancies of people receiving maintenance haemodialysis. Accelerometers are increasingly being used to quantify activity behaviours of this population but guidance to quality-assure such data is lacking. The objective of this study was to provide data processing and reduction recommendations to ensure accelerometer-derived outcomes are sufficiently reliable for interpretative analysis. METHODS: Seventy people receiving maintenance haemodialysis (age 55.9 ± 15.7 years, 34% women, 23% diabetic) from a single outpatient renal unit volunteered for the study. Participants wore Actigraph GT3x and ActivPAL monitors during waking hours over seven days. Reliability of accelerometer output (normalised to wear-time) was assessed via intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The Spearman-Brown prophecy formula was subsequently applied to the ICCs to derive the minimum required accelerometer wear-time for each behavioural outcome. RESULTS: Monitor wear compliance was greater on dialysis compared to non-dialysis days (90% v 77%). Participants were significantly more active on non-dialysis days compared to dialysis days but there were no significant differences in estimated behaviours between days within the same condition. Average measure ICCs for all accelerometer outcomes were high (range 0.76-0.96). Computations indicated that habitual physical activity and sedentary behaviour could be estimated with a minimum reliability level of 0.80 from one dialysis day and two non-dialysis days, and at least eight hours monitor wear per day. Applying this rubric allowed 90% of participant data to be retained for further analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of accelerometer, one dialysis and two non-dialysis days data with a minimum of eight hours wear each day should enable habitual activity of people receiving maintenance haemodialysis to be characterised with acceptable reliability. These recommendations reconcile the tension between wear-time criteria stringency and retention of an adequately representative sample.

The relative importance of frailty, physical and cardiovascular function as exercise-modifiable predictors of falls in haemodialysis patients: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Stage 5 chronic kidney disease (CKD-5) patients on haemodialysis (HD) are at high risk of accidental falls. Previous research has shown that frailty is one of the primary contributors to the increased risk of falling in this clinical population. However, HD patients often present with abnormalities of cardiovascular function such as baroreflex impairment and orthostatic dysregulation of blood pressure (BP) which may also be implicated in the aetiology of falling. Therefore, we aimed to explore the relative importance of frailty and cardiovascular function as potential exercise-modifiable predictors of falls in these patients. METHODS: Ninety-three prevalent CKD-5 patients on HD from three Renal Units were recruited for this prospective cohort study, which was conducted between October 2015 and August 2018. At baseline, frailty status was assessed using the Fried's frailty phenotype, while physical function was evaluated through timed up and go (TUG), five repetitions chair sit-to-stand (CSTS-5), objectively measured physical activity, and maximal voluntary isometric strength. Baroreflex and haemodynamic function at rest and in response to a 60° head-up tilt test (HUT-60°) were also assessed by means of the Task Force Monitor. The number of falls experienced was recorded once a month during 12 months of follow-up. RESULTS: In univariate negative binomial regression analysis, frailty (RR: 4.10, 95%CI: 1.60-10.51, p = 0.003) and other physical function determinants were associated with a higher number of falls. In multivariate analysis however, only worse baroreflex function (RR: 0.96, 95%CI: 0.94-0.99, p = 0.004), and orthostatic decrements of BP to HUT-60° (RR: 0.93, 95%CI: 0.87-0.99, p = 0.033) remained significantly associated with a greater number of falls. Eighty falls were recorded during the study period and the majority of them (41.3%) were precipitated by dizziness symptoms, as reported by participants. CONCLUSIONS: This prospective study indicates that cardiovascular mechanisms implicated in the short-term regulation of BP showed a greater relative importance than frailty in predicting falls in CKD-5 patients on HD. A high number of falls appeared to be mediated by a degree of cardiovascular dysregulation, as evidenced by the predominance of self-reported dizziness symptoms. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (trial registration ID: NCT02392299; date of registration: March 18, 2015).

COVID-19 in patients undergoing chronic kidney replacement therapy and kidney transplant recipients in Scotland: findings and experience from the Scottish renal registry.

BACKGROUND: Infection with the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to a worldwide pandemic with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, overwhelming healthcare systems globally. Preliminary reports suggest a high incidence of infection and mortality with SARS-CoV-2 in patients receiving kidney replacement therapy (KRT). The aims of this study are to report characteristics, rates and outcomes of all patients affected by infection with SARS-CoV-2 undergoing KRT in Scotland. METHODS: Study design was an observational cohort study. Data were linked between the Scottish Renal Registry, Health Protection Scotland and the Scottish Intensive Care Society Audit Group national data sets using a unique patient identifier (Community Health Index (CHI)) for each individual by the Public Health and Intelligence unit of Public Health, Scotland. Descriptive statistics and survival analyses were performed. RESULTS: During the period 1st March 2020 to 31st May 2020, 110 patients receiving KRT tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 amounting to 2% of the prevalent KRT population. Of those affected, 86 were receiving haemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis and 24 had a renal transplant. Patients who tested positive were older and more likely to reside in more deprived postcodes. Mortality was high at 26.7% in the dialysis patients and 29.2% in the transplant patients. CONCLUSION: The rate of detected SARS-CoV-2 in people receiving KRT in Scotland was relatively low but with a high mortality for those demonstrating infection. Although impossible to confirm, it appears that the measures taken within dialysis units coupled with the national shielding policy, have been effective in protecting this population from infection.

Polygenic risk score as a determinant of risk of non-melanoma skin cancer in a European-descent renal transplant cohort.

Renal transplant recipients have an increased risk of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) compared to in the general population. Here, we show polygenic risk scores (PRS) calculated from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of NMSC in a general, nontransplant setting, can predict risk of, and time to posttransplant skin cancer. Genetic variants, reaching predefined P-value thresholds were chosen from published squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) nontransplant GWAS. Using these GWAS, BCC and SCC PRS were calculated for each sample across three European ancestry renal transplant cohorts (n = 889) and tested as predictors of case:control status and time to NMSC posttransplant. BCC PRS calculated at P-value threshold 1 × 10-5 was the most significant predictor of case:control status of NMSC posttransplant (OR = 1.61; adjusted P = .0022; AUC [full model adjusted for clinical predictors and PRS] = 0.81). SCC PRS at P-value threshold 1 × 10-5 was the most significant predictor of time to posttransplant NMSC (adjusted P = 9.39 × 10-7 ; HR = 1.41, concordance [full model] = 0.74). PRS of nontransplant NMSC is predictive of case:control status and time to NMSC posttransplant. These results are relevant to how genomics can risk stratify patients to help develop personalized treatment regimens.

The impact of donor and recipient common clinical and genetic variation on estimated glomerular filtration rate in a European renal transplant population.

Genetic variation across the human leukocyte antigen loci is known to influence renal-transplant outcome. However, the impact of genetic variation beyond the human leukocyte antigen loci is less clear. We tested the association of common genetic variation and clinical characteristics, from both the donor and recipient, with posttransplant eGFR at different time-points, out to 5 years posttransplantation. We conducted GWAS meta-analyses across 10 844 donors and recipients from five European ancestry cohorts. We also analyzed the impact of polygenic risk scores (PRS), calculated using genetic variants associated with nontransplant eGFR, on posttransplant eGFR. PRS calculated using the recipient genotype alone, as well as combined donor and recipient genotypes were significantly associated with eGFR at 1-year posttransplant. Thirty-two percent of the variability in eGFR at 1-year posttransplant was explained by our model containing clinical covariates (including weights for death/graft-failure), principal components and combined donor-recipient PRS, with 0.3% contributed by the PRS. No individual genetic variant was significantly associated with eGFR posttransplant in the GWAS. This is the first study to examine PRS, composed of variants that impact kidney function in the general population, in a posttransplant context. Despite PRS being a significant predictor of eGFR posttransplant, the effect size of common genetic factors is limited compared to clinical variables.

Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients With Systemic Sclerosis (Scleroderma) Requiring Renal Replacement Therapy in Europe: Results From the ERA-EDTA Registry.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Data for outcomes of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) secondary to systemic sclerosis (scleroderma) requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) are limited. We examined the incidence and prevalence of ESRD due to scleroderma in Europe and the outcomes among these patients following initiation of RRT. STUDY DESIGN: Registry study of incidence and prevalence and a matched cohort study of clinical outcomes. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Patients represented in any of 19 renal registries that provided data to the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry between 2002 and 2013. PREDICTOR: Scleroderma as the identified cause of ESRD. OUTCOMES: Incidence and prevalence of ESRD from scleroderma. Recovery from RRT dependence, patient survival after ESRD, and graft survival after kidney transplantation. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Incidence and prevalence were calculated using population data from the European Union and standardized to population characteristics in 2005. Patient and graft survival were compared with 2 age- and sex-matched control groups without scleroderma: (1) diabetes mellitus as the cause of ESRD and (2) conditions other than diabetes mellitus as the cause of ESRD. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression. RESULTS: 342 patients with scleroderma (0.14% of all incident RRT patients) were included. Between 2002 and 2013, the range of adjusted annual incidence and prevalence rates of RRT for ESRD due to scleroderma were 0.11 to 0.26 and 0.73 to 0.95 per million population, respectively. Recovery of independent kidney function was greatest in the scleroderma group (7.6% vs 0.7% in diabetes mellitus and 2.0% in other primary kidney diseases control group patients, both P<0.001), though time required to achieve recovery was longer. The 5-year survival probability from day 91 of RRT among patients with scleroderma was 38.9% (95% CI, 32.0%-45.8%), whereas 5-year posttransplantation patient survival and 5-year allograft survival were 88.2% (95% CI, 75.3%-94.6%) and 72.4% (95% CI, 55.0%-84.0%), respectively. Adjusted mortality from day 91 on RRT was higher among patients with scleroderma than observed in both control groups (HRs of 1.25 [95% CI, 1.05-1.48] and 2.00 [95% CI, 1.69-2.39]). In contrast, patient and graft survival after kidney transplantation did not differ between patients with scleroderma and control groups. LIMITATIONS: No data for extrarenal manifestations, treatment, or recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Survival of patients with scleroderma who receive dialysis for more than 90 days was worse than for those with other causes of ESRD. Patient survival after transplantation was similar to that observed among patients with ESRD due to other conditions. Patients with scleroderma had a higher rate of recovery from RRT dependence than controls.

A national study of autogenous arteriovenous access use and patency in a contemporary hemodialysis population.

OBJECTIVE: The predicted outcomes of autogenous arteriovenous (AV) hemodialysis access creation are predominantly based on historical data; however, both the hemodialysis population and clinical practices have changed significantly during the last decade. This study examined contemporary AV access clinical use and patencies. METHODS: A multicenter observational cohort study was performed of all new AV accesses created in Scotland in 2015. The primary end point was efficacy assessed by successful AV access use for a minimum of 30 days and primary, primary assisted, and secondary patency at 1 year. Data obtained included all interventions to maintain or to restore patency. Predictors of patency loss including demographics, comorbid conditions, dialysis status, AV access location, duplex ultrasound surveillance, procedures, prior access, and antiplatelets were assessed. Kaplan-Meier and competing risks analyses were performed to estimate the probability of AV access failure. All patients were followed up for at least 1 year or had a censoring event. RESULTS: A total of 582 AV accesses were created in 537 patients (mean age, 60 [standard deviation, 14] years; 60% men; 42% with diabetes) in nine adult renal centers. Mean follow-up was 11.8 (standard deviation, 7.6) months. By the end of the follow-up, 322 (55.3%) AV accesses were successfully used for dialysis. At 1 year, 48% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44-52) of AV accesses had primary patency, (95% CI, 63-71) had primary assisted patency, and 69% (95% CI, 65-73) had secondary patency. The leading cause of primary patency loss was primary failure (30%). An average of 0.48 intervention per patient-year was required to maintain patency. On multivariable analysis, patency was better for an upper arm than for a forearm AV access (1-year secondary patency of upper arm vs forearm AV accesses, 74% vs 58%). The cumulative hazard and incident functions for AV access failure were 31% (95% CI, 27-35) and 23% (95% CI, 20-27) at 1 year, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Despite advances in recent years with preoperative vessel assessment and surveillance, patency rates have not improved, with primary failure remaining the major obstacle. Competing events should be taken into consideration; otherwise, biases may occur with overestimation of the probability of AV access failure.

Interaction between socioeconomic deprivation and likelihood of pre-emptive transplantation: influence of competing risks and referral characteristics - a retrospective study.

Socioeconomic deprivation (SED) influences likelihood of pre-emptive kidney transplantation (PET), but the mechanisms behind this are unclear. We explored the relationships between SED and patient characteristics at referral, which might explain this discrepancy. A retrospective cohort study was performed. SED was measured by Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). Logistic regression evaluated predictors of PET. A competing risks survival analysis evaluated the interaction between SED and progression to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and death. Of 7765 patients with follow-up of 5.69 ± 6.52 years, 1298 developed ESKD requiring RRT; 113 received PET, 64 of which were from live donors. Patients receiving PET were "less deprived" with higher SIMD (5 ± 7 vs. 4 ± 5; P = 0.003). This appeared independent of overall comorbidity burden. SED was associated with a higher risk of death but not ESKD. Higher SIMD decile was associated with a higher likelihood of PET (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.06, 1.23); the presence of diabetes and malignancy also reduced PET. SED was associated with reduced likelihood of PET after adjustment for baseline comorbidity, and this was not explained by risk of death or faster progression to ESKD. Education and outreach into transplantation should be augmented in areas with higher deprivation.