Systemic cytokines and GlycA discriminate disease status and predict corticosteroid response in HTLV-1-associated neuroinflammation.

BACKGROUND: HTLV-1-Associated Myelopathy/Tropical Spastic Paraparesis (HAM/TSP) is an incapacitating neuroinflammatory disorder for which no disease-modifying therapy is available, but corticosteroids provide some clinical benefit. Although HAM/TSP pathogenesis is not fully elucidated, older age, female sex and higher proviral load are established risk factors. We investigated systemic cytokines and a novel chronic inflammatory marker, GlycA, as possible biomarkers of immunopathogenesis and therapeutic response in HAM/TSP, and examined their interaction with established risk factors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We recruited 110 People living with HTLV-1 (PLHTLV-1, 67 asymptomatic individuals and 43 HAM/TSP patients) with a total of 946 person-years of clinical follow-up. Plasma cytokine levels (IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IL-17A, IFN-γ, TNF) and GlycA were quantified by Cytometric Bead Array and 1NMR, respectively. Cytokine signaling and prednisolone response were validated in an independent cohort by nCounter digital transcriptomics. We used multivariable regression, machine learning algorithms and Bayesian network learning for biomarker identification. RESULTS: We found that systemic IL-6 was positively correlated with both age (r = 0.50, p < 0.001) and GlycA (r = 0.45, p = 0.00049) in asymptomatics, revealing an 'inflammaging" signature which was absent in HAM/TSP. GlycA levels were higher in women (p = 0.0069), but cytokine levels did not differ between the sexes. IFN-γ (p = 0.007) and IL-17A (p = 0.0001) levels were increased in untreated HAM/TSP Multivariable logistic regression identified IL-17A and proviral load as independent determinants of clinical status, resulting in modest accuracy of predicting HAM/TSP status (64.1%), while a machine learning-derived decision tree classified HAM/TSP patients with 90.7% accuracy. Pre-treatment GlycA and TNF levels significantly predicted clinical worsening (measured by Osame Motor Disability Scale), independent of proviral load. In addition, a poor prednisolone response was significantly correlated with higher post-treatment IFN-γ levels. Likewise, a transcriptomic IFN signaling score, significantly correlated with previously proposed HAM/TSP biomarkers (CASP5/CXCL10/FCGR1A/STAT1), was efficiently blunted by in vitro prednisolone treatment of PBMC from PLHTLV-1 and incident HAM/TSP. CONCLUSIONS: An age-related increase in systemic IL-6/GlycA levels reveals inflammaging in PLHTLV-1, in the absence of neurological disease. IFN-γ and IL-17A are biomarkers of untreated HAM/TSP, while pre-treatment GlycA and TNF predict therapeutic response to prednisolone pulse therapy, paving the way for a precision medicine approach in HAM/TSP.

Phenotypical and Functional Characterization of Neutrophils in Two Pyrin-Associated Auto-inflammatory Diseases.

PURPOSE: Familial Mediterranean Fever (FMF) and Pyrin-Associated Autoinflammation with Neutrophilic Dermatosis (PAAND) are clinically distinct autoinflammatory disorders caused by mutations in the pyrin-encoding gene MEFV. We investigated the transcriptional, phenotypical, and functional characteristics of patient neutrophils to explore their potential role in FMF and PAAND pathophysiology. METHODS: RNA sequencing was performed to discover transcriptional aberrancies. The phenotypical features, degranulation properties, and phagocytic capacity of neutrophils were assessed by flow cytometry. Production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), myeloperoxidase (MPO) release, and chemotactic responses were investigated via chemiluminescence, ELISA, and Boyden chamber assays, respectively. RESULTS: Neutrophils from PAAND and FMF patients showed a partially overlapping, activated gene expression profile with increased expression of S100A8, S100A9, S100A12, IL-4R, CD48, F5, MMP9, and NFKB. Increased MMP9 and S100A8/A9 expression levels were accompanied by high plasma concentrations of the encoded proteins. Phenotypical analysis revealed that neutrophils from FMF patients exhibited an immature character with downregulation of chemoattractant receptors CXCR2, C5aR, and BLTR1 and increased expression of Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) and TLR9. PAAND neutrophils displayed an increased random, but reduced CXCL8-induced migration. A tendency for enhanced random migration was observed for FMF neutrophils. PAAND neutrophils showed a moderately but significantly enhanced phagocytic activity as opposed to neutrophils from FMF patients. Neutrophils from both patient groups showed increased MPO release and ROS production. CONCLUSIONS: Neutrophils from patients with FMF and PAAND, carrying different mutations in the MEFV gene, share a pro-inflammatory phenotype yet demonstrate diverse features, underscoring the distinction between both diseases.

Behavioral changes before lockdown and decreased retail and recreation mobility during lockdown contributed most to controlling COVID-19 in Western countries.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a lockdown in many countries to control the exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, hereby reducing the time-varying basic reproduction number (Rt) to below one. Governments are looking for evidence to balance the demand of their citizens to ease some of the restriction, against the fear of a new peak in infections. In this study, we wanted to quantify the relative contribution of mobility restrictions, and that of behavioral changes that occurred already before the lockdowns, on the reduction of transmission during lockdowns in Western countries in early 2020. METHODS: Incidence data of cases and deaths from the first wave of infections for 35 Western countries (32 European, plus Israel, USA and Canada) were analyzed using epidemiological compartment models in a Bayesian framework. Mobility data was used to estimate the timing of changes associated with a lockdown, and was correlated with estimated reductions of Rt. RESULTS: Across all countries, the initial median estimate for Rt was 3.6 (95% IQR 2.4-5.2), and it was reduced to 0.78 (95% IQR 0.58-1.01) during lockdown. 48% (18-65%) of the reduction occurred already in the week before lockdown, with lockdown itself causing the remaining drop in transmission. A lower Rt during lockdown was independently associated with an increased time spent at home (0.21 per 10% more time, p < 0.007), and decreased mobility related to retail and recreation (0.07 per 10% less mobility, p < 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: In a Western population unaware of the risk, SARS-CoV-2 can be highly contagious with a reproduction number R0 > 5. Our results are consistent with evidence that recreational activities (including restaurant and bar visits) enable super-spreading events. Exiting from lockdown therefore requires continued physical distancing and tight control on this kind of activities.

Road to Metastasis: The TWEAK Pathway as a Discriminant between Metastasizing and Non-Metastasizing Thick Melanomas.

Cutaneous melanoma (CM) is the most aggressive form of skin cancer, and its worldwide incidence is rapidly increasing. Early stages can be successfully treated by surgery, but once metastasis has occurred, the prognosis is poor. However, some 5-10% of thick (≥2 mm) melanomas do not follow this scenario and run an unpredictable course. Little is known about the factors that contribute to metastasis in some patient with thick melanomas and the lack thereof in thick melanoma patients who never develop metastatic disease. We were therefore interested to study differential gene expression and pathway analysis and compare non-metastatic and metastatic thick melanomas. We found that the TNF-like weak inducer of apoptosis (TWEAK) pathway was upregulated in thick non-metastasizing melanomas. MAP3K14 (NIK1), BIRC2 (cIAP1), RIPK1, CASP7, CASP8, and TNF play an important role in inhibiting proliferation and invasion of tumor cells via the activation of the non-canonical NF-κB signaling pathway. In particular, this pathway sensitizes melanoma cells to TNF-alpha and activates the apoptosis module of the TWEAK pathway in thick non-metastasizing melanomas. Hence, our study suggests a potential role of the TWEAK pathway in inhibiting thick melanoma from metastasis. Exploitation of these genes and the pathway they control may open future therapeutic avenues.

Single- and multiple-dose pharmacokinetics and safety of pimodivir, a novel, non-nucleoside polymerase basic protein 2 subunit inhibitor of the influenza A virus polymerase complex, and interaction with oseltamivir: a Phase 1 open-label study in healthy volunteers.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to evaluate the drug-drug interaction between pimodivir, a novel, non-nucleoside polymerase basic protein 2 (PB2) subunit inhibitor of the influenza A virus polymerase complex, and oseltamivir, to assess the feasibility of this combination therapy. Furthermore, single- and multiple-dose pharmacokinetics and safety of pimodivir in healthy volunteers were assessed. METHODS: In Part 1 of this open-label Phase 1 study, healthy volunteers (n = 18) were randomized to one of six cross-over treatment sequences, each comprising administration of oseltamivir 75 mg or pimodivir 600 mg or combination thereof twice daily on Days 1-4, followed by a single morning dose on Day 5. Between each treatment session, there was a minimum 5-day washout period. In Part 2, healthy volunteers (n = 16) randomly received pimodivir 600 mg or placebo (3:1) twice daily on Days 1-9, followed by a single morning dose on Day 10. Pharmacokinetics of pimodivir, oseltamivir and oseltamivir carboxylate, and safety were assessed. RESULTS: In Part 1, co-administration of pimodivir with oseltamivir increased the Cmax of pimodivir by 31% (90% CI: 0.92-1.85) with no change in Cmin or AUC12h . Pimodivir had no effect on oseltamivir or oseltamivir carboxylate pharmacokinetics. In Part 2, after single- and multiple-dose administration of pimodivir, there was a 1.2- and 1.8-fold increase in Cmax and AUC12h , respectively, between Day 1 and Day 10. The most frequently reported treatment-emergent adverse event was diarrhoea (n = 7 each in Part 1 and 2). CONCLUSION: Combination treatment with pimodivir and oseltamivir in healthy volunteers showed no clinically relevant drug-drug interactions. No safety concerns were identified with pimodivir 600 mg twice daily alone or in combination with oseltamivir 75 mg twice daily.

Global Dispersal Pattern of HIV Type 1 Subtype CRF01_AE: A Genetic Trace of Human Mobility Related to Heterosexual Sexual Activities Centralized in Southeast Asia.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype CRF01_AE originated in Africa and then passed to Thailand, where it established a major epidemic. Despite the global presence of CRF01_AE, little is known about its subsequent dispersal pattern. METHODS: We assembled a global data set of 2736 CRF01_AE sequences by pooling sequences from public databases and patient-cohort studies. We estimated viral dispersal patterns, using statistical phylogeographic analysis run over bootstrap trees estimated by the maximum likelihood method. RESULTS: We show that Thailand has been the source of viral dispersal to most areas worldwide, including 17 of 20 sampled countries in Europe. Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, and other Asian countries have played a secondary role in the viral dissemination. In contrast, China and Taiwan have mainly imported strains from neighboring Asian countries, North America, and Africa without any significant viral exportation. DISCUSSION: The central role of Thailand in the global spread of CRF01_AE can be probably explained by the popularity of Thailand as a vacation destination characterized by sex tourism and by Thai emigration to the Western world. Our study highlights the unique case of CRF01_AE, the only globally distributed non-B clade whose global dispersal did not originate in Africa.

Evolutionary analysis of HBV "S" antigen genetic diversity in Iranian blood donors: a nationwide study.

The genetic diversity of the HBV S gene has a significant impact on the prophylaxis and treatment of hepatitis B infection. The effect of selective pressure on this genetic alteration has not yet been studied in Iranian blood donors. To explore HBV evolution and to analyze the effects and patterns of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) mutations on blood screening assays, 358 Iranian blood donors diagnosed as asymptomatic HBV carriers were enrolled in this nationwide study. Large S and partial S genes were amplified and sequenced. HBV (sub) genotypes and synonymous and nonsynonymous mutations were investigated. The impact of naturally occurring mutations on HBsAg ELISA results was explored. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that isolated strains were of genotype D. The dominant subgenotype/subtype was D1/ayw2. Deletions and naturally occurring stop codons in the pre-S1 and major hydrophilic region (MHR) were identified. In total, 32.8% of the studied strains harbored 195 single or multiple mutations in the MHR, the majority of which were located at the first loop of the "a determinant" domain. The ayw2 subtype showed a significant effect on the ELISA signal/cut-off value and carried fewer mutations in the MHR. Nonsynonymous/synonymous substitution value indicated that negative selection was the dominant evolutionary force in the HBV S gene. This nationwide study revealed that mutation frequency of HBsAg among Iranian blood donors was much higher than previous reports from the different local regions. These findings regarding the significant differences in reactivity of ELISA among different subtypes of HBV and its correlation with the number of mutations at the MHR will be valuable to public health authorities.

Increase in transmitted resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors among newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in Europe.

BACKGROUND: One out of ten newly diagnosed patients in Europe was infected with a virus carrying a drug resistant mutation. We analysed the patterns over time for transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) using data from the European Spread program. METHODS: Clinical, epidemiological and virological data from 4317 patients newly diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between 2002 and 2007 were analysed. Patients were enrolled using a pre-defined sampling strategy. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of TDRM in this period was 8.9% (95% CI: 8.1-9.8). Interestingly, significant changes over time in TDRM caused by the different drug classes were found. Whereas nucleoside resistance mutations remained constant at 5%, a significant decline in protease inhibitors resistance mutations was observed, from 3.9% in 2002 to 1.6% in 2007 (p = 0.001). In contrast, resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) doubled from 2.0% in 2002 to 4.1% in 2007 (p = 0.004) with 58% of viral strains carrying a K103N mutation. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these temporal changes could not be explained by large clusters of TDRM. CONCLUSION: During the years 2002 to 2007 transmitted resistance to NNRTI has doubled to 4% in Europe. The frequent use of NNRTI in first-line regimens and the clinical impact of NNRTI mutations warrants continued monitoring.

Pharmacy refill adherence outperforms self-reported methods in predicting HIV therapy outcome in resource-limited settings.

BACKGROUND: Optimal adherence to antiretroviral therapy is critical to prevent HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) epidemic. The objective of the study was to investigate the best performing adherence assessment method for predicting virological failure in resource-limited settings (RLS). METHOD: This study was a single-centre prospective cohort, enrolling 220 HIV-infected adult patients attending an HIV/AIDS Care and Treatment Centre in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in 2010. Pharmacy refill, self-report (via visual analog scale [VAS] and the Swiss HIV Cohort study-adherence questionnaire), pill count, and appointment keeping adherence measurements were taken. Univariate logistic regression (LR) was done to explore a cut-off that gives a better trade-off between sensitivity and specificity, and a higher area under the curve (AUC) based on receiver operating characteristic curve in predicting virological failure. Additionally, the adherence models were evaluated by fitting multivariate LR with stepwise functions, decision trees, and random forests models, assessing 10-fold multiple cross validation (MCV). Patient factors associated with virological failure were determined using LR. RESULTS: Viral load measurements at baseline and one year after recruitment were available for 162 patients, of whom 55 (34%) had detectable viral load and 17 (10.5%) had immunological failure at one year after recruitment. The optimal cut-off points significantly predictive of virological failure were 95%, 80%, 95% and 90% for VAS, appointment keeping, pharmacy refill, and pill count adherence respectively. The AUC for these methods ranged from 0.52 to 0.61, with pharmacy refill giving the best performance at AUC 0.61. Multivariate logistic regression with boost stepwise MCV had higher AUC (0.64) compared to all univariate adherence models, except pharmacy refill adherence univariate model, which was comparable to the multivariate model (AUC = 0.64). Decision trees and random forests models were inferior to boost stepwise model. Pharmacy refill adherence (<95%) emerged as the best method for predicting virological failure. Other significant predictors in multivariate LR were having a baseline CD4 T lymphocytes count < 200 cells/µl, being unable to recall the diagnosis date, and a higher weight. CONCLUSION: Pharmacy refill has the potential to predict virological failure and to identify patients to be considered for viral load monitoring and HIVDR testing in RLS.

IL-10 predicts incident neuroinflammatory disease and proviral load dynamics in a large Brazilian cohort of people living with human T-lymphotropic virus type 1.

Human T-Lymphotropic Virus type-1 (HTLV-1) is a unique retrovirus associated with both leukemogenesis and a specific neuroinflammatory condition known as HTLV-1-Associated Myelopathy (HAM). Currently, most proposed HAM biomarkers require invasive CSF sampling, which is not suitable for large cohorts or repeated prospective screening. To identify non-invasive biomarkers for incident HAM in a large Brazilian cohort of PLwHTLV-1 (n=615 with 6,673 person-years of clinical follow-up), we selected all plasma samples available at the time of entry in the cohort (between 1997-2019), in which up to 43 cytokines/chemokines and immune mediators were measured. Thus, we selected 110 People Living with HTLV-1 (PLwHTLV-1), of which 68 were neurologically asymptomatic (AS) at baseline and 42 HAM patients. Nine incident HAM cases were identified among 68 AS during follow-up. Using multivariate logistic regression, we found that lower IL-10, IL-4 and female sex were independent predictors of clinical progression to definite HAM (AUROC 0.91), and outperformed previously suggested biomarkers age, sex and proviral load (AUROC 0.77). Moreover, baseline IL-10 significantly predicted proviral load dynamics at follow-up in all PLwHTLV-1. In an exploratory analysis, we identified additional plasma biomarkers which were able to discriminate iHAM from either AS (IL6Rα, IL-27) or HAM (IL-29/IFN-λ1, Osteopontin, and TNFR2). In conclusion, female sex and low anti-inflammatory IL-10 and IL-4 are independent risk factors for incident HAM in PLwHTLV-1,while proviral load is not, in agreement with IL-10 being upstream of proviral load dynamics. Additional candidate biomarkers IL-29/IL-6R/TNFR2 represent plausible therapeutic targets for future clinical trials in HAM patients.

HIV-1 subtype distribution and its demographic determinants in newly diagnosed patients in Europe suggest highly compartmentalized epidemics.

BACKGROUND: Understanding HIV-1 subtype distribution and epidemiology can assist preventive measures and clinical decisions. Sequence variation may affect antiviral drug resistance development, disease progression, evolutionary rates and transmission routes. RESULTS: We investigated the subtype distribution of HIV-1 in Europe and Israel in a representative sample of patients diagnosed between 2002 and 2005 and related it to the demographic data available. 2793 PRO-RT sequences were subtyped either with the REGA Subtyping tool or by a manual procedure that included phylogenetic tree and recombination analysis. The most prevalent subtypes/CRFs in our dataset were subtype B (66.1%), followed by sub-subtype A1 (6.9%), subtype C (6.8%) and CRF02_AG (4.7%). Substantial differences in the proportion of new diagnoses with distinct subtypes were found between European countries: the lowest proportion of subtype B was found in Israel (27.9%) and Portugal (39.2%), while the highest was observed in Poland (96.2%) and Slovenia (93.6%). Other subtypes were significantly more diagnosed in immigrant populations. Subtype B was significantly more diagnosed in men than in women and in MSM > IDUs > heterosexuals. Furthermore, the subtype distribution according to continent of origin of the patients suggests they acquired their infection there or in Europe from compatriots. CONCLUSIONS: The association of subtype with demographic parameters suggests highly compartmentalized epidemics, determined by social and behavioural characteristics of the patients.

The demise of multidrug-resistant HIV-1: the national time trend in Portugal.

OBJECTIVES: Despite a decreasing mortality and morbidity in treated HIV-1 patients, highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) can still fail due to the development of drug resistance. Especially, multidrug-resistant viruses pose a threat to efficient therapy. We studied the changing prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) over time in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients in Portugal. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used data of 8065 HIV-1-infected patients followed from July 2001 up to April 2012 in 22 hospitals located in Portugal. MDR at a specific date of sampling was defined as no more than one fully active drug (excluding integrase and entry inhibitors) at that time authorized by the Portuguese National Authority of Medicines and Health Products (INFARMED), as interpreted with the Rega algorithm version 8.0.2. A generalized linear mixed model was used to study the time trend of the prevalence of MDR. RESULTS: We observed a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of MDR over the last decade, from 6.9% (95% CI: 5.7-8.4) in 2001-03, 6.0% (95% CI: 4.9-7.2) in 2003-05, 3.7% (95% CI: 2.8-4.8) in 2005-07 and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.1-2.2) in 2007-09 down to 0.6% (95% CI: 0.3-0.9) in 2009-12 [OR=0.80 (95% CI: 0.75-0.86); P<0.001]. In July 2011 the last new case of MDR was seen. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of multidrug-resistant HIV-1 is decreasing over time in Portugal, reflecting the increasing efficiency of HAART and the availability of new drugs. Therefore, in designing a new drug, safety and practical aspects, e.g. less toxicity and ease of use, may need more attention than focusing mainly on efficacy against resistant strains.

Gender differences in HIV disease progression and treatment outcomes among HIV patients one year after starting antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: We investigated gender differences in treatment outcome during first line antiretroviral treatment (ART) in a hospital setting in Tanzania, assessing clinical, social demographic, virological and immunological factors. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study involving HIV infected patients scheduled to start ART and followed up to 1 year on ART. Structured questionnaires and patients file review were used to collect information and blood was collected for CD4 and viral load testing. Gender differences were assessed using Kruskal-Wallis test and chi-square test for continuous and categorical data respectively. Survival distributions for male and female patients were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Of 234 patients recruited in this study, 70% were females. At baseline, women had significantly lower education level; lower monthly income, lower knowledge on ARV, less advanced HIV disease (33% women; 47% men started ART at WHO stage IV, p = 0.04), higher CD4 cell count (median 149 for women, 102 for men, p = 0.02) and higher BMI (p = 0.002). After 1 year of standard ART, a higher proportion of females survived although this was not significant, a significantly higher proportion of females had undetectable plasma viral load (69% women, 45% men, p = 0.003), however females ended at a comparable CD4 cell count (median CD4, 312 women; 321 men) signifying a worse CD4 cell increase (p = 0.05), even though they still had a higher BMI (p = 0.02). The unadjusted relative hazard for death for men compared to women was 1.94. After correcting for confounding factors, the Cox proportional hazards showed no significant difference in the survival rate (relative hazard 1.02). CONCLUSION: We observed women were starting treatment at a less advanced disease stage, but they had a lower socioeconomical status. After one year, both men and women had similar clinical and immunological conditions. It is not clear why women lose their immunological advantage over men despite a better virological treatment response. We recommend continuous follow up of this and more cohorts of patients to better understand the underlying causes for these differences and whether this will translate also in longer term differences.

High viral suppression and detection of dolutegravir-resistance associated mutations in treatment-experienced Tanzanian adults living with HIV-1 in Dar es Salaam.

To curb HIV infection rate in Tanzania, antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been scaled up since 2006, and in 2019, the country shifted to regimen including dolutegravir as a default first line. We assessed the success of ART and the contribution of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) to unsuppressed viral loads. Between February and May 2023 a cross-sectional survey with random sampling was conducted in the six clinics in an urban cohort in Dar es Salaam. Patients with unsuppresed viral loads (local criteria viral load (VL) ≥ 1000 copies/mL) were tested for HIVDR mutations using the WHO adapted protocol for plasma samples. Mutations were interpreted using the Stanford HIVDR database. In total 600 individuals participated in this survey, the majority were female (76.83%), mean age ([Formula: see text] standard deviation) was 44.0 ([Formula: see text] 11.6) years. The median duration on ART (interquartile range) was 6.5 (3.9-10.2) years. Approximately 99% were receiving tenofovir + lamivudine + dolutegravir as a fixed dose combination. VL testing was successful in 99.67% (598/600) of survey patients and only 33 had VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL, resulting in a viral suppression level of 94.48% (565/598, 95% CI 92.34-96.17%). For 23 samples, protease and reverse transcriptase (RT) genotyping were successful, with 13 sequences containing RT inhibitor surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) (56.5%). No SDRM against protease inhibitors were detected. Thirty samples were successfully genotyped for integrase with 3 sequences (10.08%) containing integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) SDRMs. In samples successfully genotyped in the three genetic regions, 68.18% (16/22) had a genotypic susceptibility score (GSS) ≥ 2.5 for the concurrent regimen, implying factors beyond drug resistance caused the unsuppressed viral load. For five patients, GSS indicated that HIVDR may have caused the unsuppressed viral load. All three patients with INSTI resistance mutations were highly resistant to dolutegravir and accumulated nucleoside and non-nucleoside RT inhibitor HIVDR mutations. Although in this cohort the last 95 UNAIDS target was almost achieved, HIVDR mutations, including INSTIs resistance mutations were detected in HIV-positive individuals taking ART for at least one year. We recommend the design and implementation of high-impact interventions to prevent the increase of HIVDR, failure of dolutegravir and address the non-resistance factors in the study area.

Treatment-associated polymorphisms in protease are significantly associated with higher viral load and lower CD4 count in newly diagnosed drug-naive HIV-1 infected patients.

BACKGROUND: The effect of drug resistance transmission on disease progression in the newly infected patient is not well understood. Major drug resistance mutations severely impair viral fitness in a drug free environment, and therefore are expected to revert quickly. Compensatory mutations, often already polymorphic in wild-type viruses, do not tend to revert after transmission. While compensatory mutations increase fitness during treatment, their presence may also modulate viral fitness and virulence in absence of therapy and major resistance mutations. We previously designed a modeling technique that quantifies genotypic footprints of in vivo treatment selective pressure, including both drug resistance mutations and polymorphic compensatory mutations, through the quantitative description of a fitness landscape from virus genetic sequences. RESULTS: Genotypic correlates of viral load and CD4 cell count were evaluated in subtype B sequences from recently diagnosed treatment-naive patients enrolled in the SPREAD programme. The association of surveillance drug resistance mutations, reported compensatory mutations and fitness estimated from drug selective pressure fitness landscapes with baseline viral load and CD4 cell count was evaluated using regression techniques. Protease genotypic variability estimated to increase fitness during treatment was associated with higher viral load and lower CD4 cell counts also in treatment-naive patients, which could primarily be attributed to well-known compensatory mutations at highly polymorphic positions. By contrast, treatment-related mutations in reverse transcriptase could not explain viral load or CD4 cell count variability. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that polymorphic compensatory mutations in protease, reported to be selected during treatment, may improve the replicative capacity of HIV-1 even in absence of drug selective pressure or major resistance mutations. The presence of this polymorphic variation may either reflect a history of drug selective pressure, i.e. transmission from a treated patient, or merely be a result of diversity in wild-type virus. Our findings suggest that transmitted drug resistance has the potential to contribute to faster disease progression in the newly infected host and to shape the HIV-1 epidemic at a population level.

Minimal important differences for interpreting health-related quality of life scores from the EORTC QLQ-C30 in lung cancer patients participating in randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to determine the smallest changes in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) scores in a subset of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30) scales, which could be considered as clinically meaningful in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: WHO performance status (PS) and weight change were used as clinical anchors to determine minimal important differences (MIDs) in HRQOL change scores (range, 0-100) in the EORTC QLQ-C30 scales. Selected distribution-based methods were used for comparison. FINDINGS: In a pooled dataset of 812 NSCLC patients undergoing treatment, the values determined to represent the MID depended on whether patients were improving or deteriorating. MID estimates for improvement (based on a one-category change in PS, 5 - <20% weight gain) were physical functioning (9, 5); role functioning (14, 7); social functioning (5, 7); global health status (9, 4); fatigue (14, 5); and pain (16, 2). The respective MID estimates for deterioration (based on PS, weight loss) were physical (4, 6); role (5, 5); social (7, 9); global health status (4, 4); fatigue (6, 11); and pain (3, 7). INTERPRETATION: Based on the selected QLQ-C30 scales, the MID may depend upon whether the patients' PS is improving or worsening, but our results are not definitive. The MID estimates for the specified scales can help clinicians and researchers evaluate the significance of changes in HRQOL and assess the value of a health care intervention or compare treatments. The estimates also can be useful in determining sample sizes in the design of future clinical trials.

Transmission of drug-resistant HIV-1 is stabilizing in Europe.

The SPREAD Programme investigated prospectively the time trend from September 2002 through December 2005 of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) among 2793 patients in 20 European countries and in Israel with newly diagnosed human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection. The overall prevalence of TDR was 8.4% (225 of 2687 patients; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.4%-9.5%), the prevalence of nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) resistance was 4.7% (125 of 2687 patients; 95% CI, 3.9%-5.5%), the prevalence of nonucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance was 2.3% (62 of 2687 patients; 95% CI, 1.8%-2.9%), and the prevalence of protease inhibitor (PI) resistance was 2.9% (79 of 2687 patients; 95% CI, 2.4%-3.6%). There was no time trend in the overall TDR or in NRTI resistance, but there was a statistically significant decrease in PI resistance (P = .04) and in NNRTI resistance after an initial increase (P = .02). We found that TDR appears to be stabilizing in Europe, consistent with recent reports of decreasing drug resistance and improved viral suppression in patients treated for HIV-1 infection.

Investigation of expert rule bases, logistic regression, and non-linear machine learning techniques for predicting response to antiretroviral treatment.

BACKGROUND: The extreme flexibility of the HIV type-1 (HIV-1) genome makes it challenging to build the ideal antiretroviral treatment regimen. Interpretation of HIV-1 genotypic drug resistance is evolving from rule-based systems guided by expert opinion to data-driven engines developed through machine learning methods. METHODS: The aim of the study was to investigate linear and non-linear statistical learning models for classifying short-term virological outcome of antiretroviral treatment. To optimize the model, different feature selection methods were considered. Robust extra-sample error estimation and different loss functions were used to assess model performance. The results were compared with widely used rule-based genotypic interpretation systems (Stanford HIVdb, Rega and ANRS). RESULTS: A set of 3,143 treatment change episodes were extracted from the EuResist database. The dataset included patient demographics, treatment history and viral genotypes. A logistic regression model using high order interaction variables performed better than rule-based genotypic interpretation systems (accuracy 75.63% versus 71.74-73.89%, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.76 versus 0.68-0.70) and was equivalent to a random forest model (accuracy 76.16%, AUC 0.77). However, when rule-based genotypic interpretation systems were coupled with additional patient attributes, and the combination was provided as input to the logistic regression model, the performance increased significantly, becoming comparable to the fully data-driven methods. CONCLUSIONS: Patient-derived supplementary features significantly improved the accuracy of the prediction of response to treatment, both with rule-based and data-driven interpretation systems. Fully data-driven models derived from large-scale data sources show promise as antiretroviral treatment decision support tools.

Relating increasing hantavirus incidences to the changing climate: the mast connection.

BACKGROUND: Nephropathia epidemica (NE), an emerging rodent-borne viral disease, has become the most important cause of infectious acute renal failure in Belgium, with sharp increases in incidence occurring for more than a decade. Bank voles are the rodent reservoir of the responsible hantavirus and are known to display cyclic population peaks. We tried to relate these peaks to the cyclic NE outbreaks observed since 1993. Our hypothesis was that the ecological causal connection was the staple food source for voles, being seeds of deciduous broad-leaf trees, commonly called "mast". We also examined whether past temperature and precipitation preceding "mast years" were statistically linked to these NE outbreaks. RESULTS: Since 1993, each NE peak is immediately preceded by a mast year, resulting in significantly higher NE case numbers during these peaks (Spearman R = -0.82; P = 0.034). NE peaks are significantly related to warmer autumns the year before (R = 0.51; P < 0.001), hotter summers two years before (R = 0.32; P < 0.001), but also to colder (R = -0.25; P < 0.01) and more moist summers (R = 0.39; P < 0.001) three years before. Summer correlations were even more pronounced, when only July was singled out as the most representative summer month. CONCLUSION: NE peaks in year 0 are induced by abundant mast formation in year-1, facilitating bank vole survival during winter, thus putting the local human population at risk from the spring onwards of year 0. This bank vole survival is further promoted by higher autumn temperatures in year-1, whereas mast formation itself is primed by higher summer temperatures in year-2. Both summer and autumn temperatures have been rising to significantly higher levels during recent years, explaining the virtually continuous epidemic state since 2005 of a zoonosis, considered rare until recently. Moreover, in 2007 a NE peak and an abundant mast formation occurred for the first time within the same year, thus forecasting yet another record NE incidence for 2008. We therefore predict that with the anticipated climate changes due to global warming, NE might become a highly endemic disease in Belgium and surrounding countries.

The incidence of multidrug and full class resistance in HIV-1 infected patients is decreasing over time (2001-2006) in Portugal.

Despite improvements in HIV treatment, the prevalence of multidrug resistance and full class resistance is still reported to be increasing. However, to investigate whether current treatment strategies are still selecting for multidrug and full class resistance, the incidence, instead of the prevalence, is more informative. Temporal trends in multidrug resistance (MDR defined as at most 1 drug fully susceptible) and full class resistance (FCR defined as no drug in this class fully susceptible) in Portugal based on 3394 viral isolates genotyped from 2000 to 2006 were examined using the Rega 6.4.1 interpretation system. From July 2001 to July 2006 there was a significant decreasing trend of MDR with 5.7%, 5.2%, 3.8%, 3.4% and 2.7% for the consecutive years (P = 0.003). Multivariate analysis showed that for every consecutive year the odds of having a new MDR case decreased with 20% (P = 0.003). Furthermore, a decline was observed for NRTI- and PI-FCR (both P < 0.001), whereas for NNRTI-FCR a parabolic trend over time was seen (P < 0.001), with a maximum incidence in 2003-'04. Similar trends were obtained when scoring resistance for only one drug within a class or by using another interpretation system. In conclusion, the incidence of multidrug and full class resistance is decreasing over time in Portugal, with the exception of NNRTI full class resistance which showed an initial rise, but subsequently also a decline. This is most probably reflecting the changing drug prescription, the increasing efficiency of HAART and the improved management of HIV drug resistance. This work was presented in part at the Eighth International Congress on Drug Therapy in HIV Infection, Glasgow (UK), 12-16 November 2006 (PL5.5); and at the Fifth European HIV Drug Resistance Workshop, Cascais (Portugal), 28-30 March 2007 (Abstract 1).