Moderate disturbances accelerate forest transition dynamics under climate change in the temperate-boreal ecotone of eastern North America.

Several temperate tree species are expected to migrate northward and colonize boreal forests in response to climate change. Tree migrations could lead to transitions in forest types, but these could be influenced by several non-climatic factors, such as disturbances and soil conditions. We analysed over 10,000 forest inventory plots, sampled from 1970 to 2018 in meridional Québec, Canada, to identify what environmental conditions promote or prevent regional-scale forest transitions. We used a continuous-time multi-state Markov model to quantify the probabilities of transitions between forest states (temperate, boreal, mixed, pioneer) as a function of climate (mean temperature and climate moisture index during the growing season), soil conditions (pH and drainage) and disturbances (severity levels of natural disturbances and logging). We further investigate how different disturbance types and severities impact forests' short-term transient dynamics and long-term equilibrium using properties of Markov transition matrices. The most common transitions observed during the study period were from mixed to temperate states, as well as from pioneer to boreal forests. In our study, transitions were mainly driven by natural and anthropogenic disturbances and secondarily by climate, whereas soil characteristics exerted relatively minor constraints. While major disturbances only promoted transitions to the pioneer state, moderate disturbances increased the probability of transition from mixed to temperate states. Long-term projections of our model under the current environmental conditions indicate that moderate disturbances would promote a northward shift of the temperate forest. Moreover, disturbances reduced turnover and convergence time for all transitions, thereby accelerating forest dynamics. Contrary to our expectation, mixed to temperate transitions were not driven by temperate tree recruitment but by mortality and growth. Overall, our results suggest that moderate disturbances could catalyse rapid forest transitions and accelerate broad-scale biome shifts.

Genetic and demographic aspects of Varronia curassavica Jacq. in a heterogeneous coastal ecosystem.

The restinga is a threatened Brazilian ecosystem and a highly heterogeneous environment. This work aimed to evaluate demographic and genetic aspects of Varronia curassavica and whether environmental heterogeneity can influence the studied population parameters. Three annual evaluations were carried out in an area of restinga in Florianópolis-SC, Brazil. Demographic data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, and the spatial distribution pattern was calculated by Ripley's K-function and correlated with environmental characteristics. To characterize diversity and genetic structure, eight microsatellite markers were used. This work demonstrated that variations in the distribution of individuals and genotypes can be related to specific environments. Dry lowlands were environments favorable to population development, and flooded lowland and mobile dunes were unfavorable. The fixation indices were distinct between environments, evidencing a tendency toward preferential crosses in favor of heterozygotes. We found absence of spatial genetic structure, indicating that genotypes are randomly distributed and that gene flow may be related to such genetic factors as the presence of autoincompatibility mechanisms. This diversity of environments contributed to the aggregate distribution and is relevant for the maintenance of demographic and genetic processes of the species in restingas, and this aspect should be considered for in situ conservation.