Liquid fat, a potential abiotic vector for horizontal transmission of salmonid alphavirus?

Viral diseases represent serious challenge in marine farming of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L). Pancreas disease (PD) caused by a salmonid alphavirus (SAV) is by far the most serious in northern Europe. To control PD, it is necessary to identify virus transmission routes. One aspect to consider is whether the virus is transported as free particles or associated with potential vectors. Farmed salmonids have high lipid content in their tissue which may be released into the environment from decomposing dead fish. At the seawater surface, the effects of wind and ocean currents are most prominent. The aim of this study was primarily to identify whether the lipid fraction leaking from dead infected salmon contains SAV. Adipose tissue from dead SAV-infected fish from three farming sites was submerged in beakers with sea water in the laboratory and stored at different temperature and time conditions. SAV was identified by real-time RT-PCR in the lipid fractions accumulating at the water surface in the beakers. SAV-RNA was also present in the sea water. Lipid fractions were transferred to cell culture, and viable SAV was identified. Due to its hydrophobic nature, fat with infective pathogenic virus at the surface may contribute to long-distance transmission of SAV.

Transmission dynamics of pancreas disease (PD) in a Norwegian fjord: aspects of water transport, contact networks and infection pressure among salmon farms.

Pancreas disease (PD) in marine salmon farming is caused by salmon pancreas disease virus (SPDV). Virus survival, infection pressure and contact networks among farms influence the potential of PD to spread. The present study aims to explore contact networks and infection pressure and their ability to explain transmission dynamics of PD in a Norwegian fjord. In this study, we included all records of PD by subtype 3 (SPDV3) in the study population from the first reported in August 2006 to the last reported in November 2009. Using logistic regression analyses, we found that contact network by water transport explained better transmission of PD than contact networks defined by ownership or close distance to infected farms. Hydrodynamic modelling can be a valuable tool to forecast the spread of PD and thereby take actions to reduce the transmission. Knowing the risk of getting infected, it is important to avoid water transport from infected farms when new cohorts are transferred to sea water, and to have conscious control regarding management operations between farms.

Seasonal increase in sea temperature triggers pancreas disease outbreaks in Norwegian salmon farms.

Pancreas disease (PD) is a viral disease causing negative impacts on economy of salmon farms and fish welfare. Its transmission route is horizontal, and water transport by ocean currents is an important factor for transmission. In this study, the effect of temperature changes on PD dynamics in the field has been analysed for the first time. To identify the potential time of exposure to the virus causing PD, a hydrodynamic current model was used. A cohort of salmon was assumed to be infected the month it was exposed to virus from other infective cohorts by estimated water contact. The number of months from exposure to outbreak defined the incubation period, which was used in this investigation to explore the relationship between temperature changes and PD dynamics. The time of outbreak was identified by peak in mortality based on monthly records from active sites. Survival analysis demonstrated that cohorts exposed to virus at decreasing sea temperature had a significantly longer incubation period than cohorts infected when the sea temperature was increasing. Hydrodynamic models can provide information on the risk of being exposed to pathogens from neighbouring farms. With the knowledge of temperature-dependent outbreak probability, the farmers can emphasize prophylactic management, avoid stressful operations until the sea temperature is decreasing and consider removal of cohorts at risk, if possible.

Integration of hydrodynamics into a statistical model on the spread of pancreas disease (PD) in salmon farming.

Pancreas disease (PD) is an emerging disease in salmon farming caused by the salmonid alphavirus (SAV). SAV is evidently spread horizontally between neighbouring salmon farms, but whether such transmission occurs by passive drift in the water current or via fomites is not known. We tested whether hydrodynamic modelling contributes to explain the spread of PD, in which case SAV is likely to spread by passive drift. We present a simple logistic regression model that accounts for the effect of PD in the neighbourhood on the probability of acquiring PD in cohorts of farmed salmonids from an area on the west coast of Norway between 2005 and 2008. For a given cohort, we calculated infection pressure (IP) based on Euclidean distance, seaway distance or estimated water contact to sites with PD, and compared the amount of variance explained in the regression model by the different variants of IP. Water contact between a discharging farm site and a receiving site was calculated by simulating particle discharge using a hydrodynamic model. IP estimated by water contact was the best predictor of PD cases and controls in the model, which performed significantly better than IP estimated by seaway distance or Euclidean distance. Since the spread of PD in the study area was best explained by modelled water velocity, we conclude that PD is likely to be spread by passive drift of SAV in the water current.

Empirical assessment of a threshold model for sylvatic plague.

Plague surveillance programmes established in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, during the previous century, have generated large plague archives that have been used to parameterize an abundance threshold model for sylvatic plague in great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations. Here, we assess the model using additional data from the same archives. Throughout the focus, population levels above the threshold were a necessary condition for an epizootic to occur. However, there were large numbers of occasions when an epizootic was not observed even though great gerbils were, and had been, abundant. We examine six hypotheses that could explain the resulting false positive predictions, namely (i) including end-of-outbreak data erroneously lowers the estimated threshold, (ii) too few gerbils were tested, (iii) plague becomes locally extinct, (iv) the abundance of fleas was too low, (v) the climate was unfavourable, and (vi) a high proportion of gerbils were resistant. Of these, separate thresholds, fleas and climate received some support but accounted for few false positives and can be disregarded as serious omissions from the model. Small sample size and local extinction received strong support and can account for most of the false positives. Host resistance received no support here but should be subject to more direct experimental testing.

Local persistence and extinction of plague in a metapopulation of great gerbil burrows, Kazakhstan.

Speculation on how the bacterium Yersinia pestis re-emerges after years of absence in the Prebalkhash region in Kazakhstan has been ongoing for half a century, but the mechanism is still unclear. One of the theories is that plague persists in its reservoir host (the great gerbil) in so-called hotspots, i.e. small regions in which the conditions remain favourable for plague to persist during times where the conditions in the Prebalkhash region as a whole have become unfavourable for plague persistence. In this paper we use a metapopulation model that describes the dynamics of the great gerbil. With this model we study the minimum size of an individual hotspot and the combined size of multiple hotspots in the Prebalkhash region that would be required for Y. pestis to persist through an inter-epizootic period. We show that the combined area of hotspots required for plague persistence is so large that it would be unlikely to have been missed by existing plague surveillance. This suggests that persistence of plague in that region cannot solely be explained by the existence of hotspots, and therefore other hypotheses, such as survival in multiple host species, and persistence in fleas or in the soil should be considered as well.

Trends in Campylobacter incidence in broilers and humans in six European countries, 1997-2007.

The objective of this study was to examine incidences of Campylobacter in broilers and humans, and to describe seasonal variation and long-term trends by comparing longitudinal surveillance data in six Northern European countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands). Due to high degree of seasonality and autocorrelation, seasonally adjusted (de-seasonalized) and trend adjusted data (de-trended) were used for comparing incidences within and between the six countries. De-seasonalized time series were obtained by fitting the incidence time series to mean monthly temperature and then removing this effect from the data. Long-term trends were fitted to the de-seasonalized time series. The incidence of Campylobacter colonization in broiler flocks and incidence of campylobacteriosis in humans showed a concordant seasonality for all the countries. There was a strong association between the incidence in both broilers and humans in a given month and the mean temperature of the northern hemisphere in the same month, as well as the preceding month, as shown by the cross-correlations and the chosen Generalized Additive Model. Denmark and Sweden showed a steadily decreasing trend for Campylobacter in broilers and human campylobacteriosis in the period 2001-2007. In Iceland, there was a decreasing trend for campylobacteriosis in humans from 1999 to 2007, whilst the broiler trend for Campylobacter was stable from 2001 to 2004, then falling thereafter. In Norway, the human campylobacteriosis trend showed a steady increase throughout the period. On the other hand, the Norwegian broiler trend for Campylobacter showed a decrease from 2001 until 2004, but was thereafter stable. There was no significant decrease or increase in incidence for human campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands, and the trend for Campylobacter in broilers was close to stable. The seasonality seen in broiler and human closely follows the temperature, and was probably caused, at least partly, by temperature related factors.

Risk factors for pancreas disease (PD) outbreaks in farmed Atlantic salmon and rainbow trout in Norway during 2003-2007.

Pancreas disease (PD) is an emerging infectious disease in farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss Walbaum) caused by salmonid alphavirus (SAV). The present study is a large scale study aiming at quantifying the probability of contracting PD in farmed salmonid cohorts in Norway due to exposure to risk factors that may be associated with specific transmission pathways for SAV, or may increase a cohort's susceptibility to PD. Monthly reports of numbers of fish and mean fish weight from all marine salmonid farm sites in Norway were used to identify cohorts of farmed salmonids. Only cohorts that were initiated and terminated during 2003-2007 were assembled for the study. Records of clinical diagnosis of PD on marine farm sites were used to identify PD case cohorts. In PD case cohorts, PD-outbreaks were defined to start the month the diagnosis was recorded and last until the cohort was terminated. All cohorts in which PD was not recorded were assigned to the control-class. In total 143 PD case cohorts and 1079 control cohorts were assembled. Risk factors were assigned to the cohorts and analysed using logistic regression by generalized additive models (GAM). We find that infection pressure, a variable designed to capture the potential for local disease spread, has a strong effect on the probability of recording a PD-outbreak in a cohort. The function describing the effect of infection pressure increased steeply as infection pressure increased from 0 to moderate values corresponding to having a mean sized neighbouring fish stock with PD at a distance of 2 km, after which the function levelled off. The study emphasises horizontal transmission pathways as important for the spread of PD in Norwegian salmon farming, and accordingly that bio-security measures aimed at controlling horizontal transmission are necessary in order to reduce the number of outbreaks of PD.

Mate choice copying versus preference for actively displaying males by female pied flycatchers.

Should a female copy the mate choice of other females? A female may rank a mated male higher in quality than an unmated male because the former has demonstrated that he is able to attract a female. However, a prospecting female may also avoid a mated male because of the risk that she has to compete with the male's initial mate over access to copulations, breeding resources and male parental care. We studied the mate choice of female pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca, in aviaries divided into three compartments, two for males, and one for a female. A female was allowed to choose (build a nest in a nestbox) between two males after a period when she had been kept in a cage behind a one-way mirror and had presumably seen that one of the males was in the company of another female for 5 h. There was no evidence that females copied the mate choice of conspecific females, or that they avoided males that had recently been in the company of another female. Instead, females apparently chose a mate independently of others, choosing the male showing most courtship display. The latter result explains the consistency in mate choice observed when different females chose between the same pair of males in repeat trials. The ability of females to pick out the same male independently may also explain why a few males obtain most copulations in lekking species. Copyright 1999 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.