Combined analyses of within-host SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and information on past exposures to the virus in a human cohort identifies intrinsic differences of Omicron and Delta variants.

The emergence of successive Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) during 2020 to 2022, each exhibiting increased epidemic growth relative to earlier circulating variants, has created a need to understand the drivers of such growth. However, both pathogen biology and changing host characteristics-such as varying levels of immunity-can combine to influence replication and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within and between hosts. Disentangling the role of variant and host in individual-level viral shedding of VOCs is essential to inform Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) planning and response and interpret past epidemic trends. Using data from a prospective observational cohort study of healthy adult volunteers undergoing weekly occupational health PCR screening, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct individual-level viral kinetics and estimate how different factors shaped viral dynamics, measured by PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values over time. Jointly accounting for both interindividual variation in Ct values and complex host characteristics-such as vaccination status, exposure history, and age-we found that age and number of prior exposures had a strong influence on peak viral replication. Older individuals and those who had at least 5 prior antigen exposures to vaccination and/or infection typically had much lower levels of shedding. Moreover, we found evidence of a correlation between the speed of early shedding and duration of incubation period when comparing different VOCs and age groups. Our findings illustrate the value of linking information on participant characteristics, symptom profile and infecting variant with prospective PCR sampling, and the importance of accounting for increasingly complex population exposure landscapes when analysing the viral kinetics of VOCs. Trial Registration: The Legacy study is a prospective observational cohort study of healthy adult volunteers undergoing weekly occupational health PCR screening for SARS-CoV-2 at University College London Hospitals or at the Francis Crick Institute (NCT04750356) (22,23). The Legacy study was approved by London Camden and Kings Cross Health Research Authority Research and Ethics committee (IRAS number 286469). The Legacy study was approved by London Camden and Kings Cross Health Research Authority Research and Ethics committee (IRAS number 286469) and is sponsored by University College London Hospitals. Written consent was given by all participants.

A retrospective analysis of 20,178 adult neurological infection admissions to United Kingdom critical care units from 2001 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Neurological infection is an important cause of critical illness, yet little is known on the epidemiology of neurological infections requiring critical care. METHODS: We analysed data on all adults with proven or probable neurological infection admitted to UK (NHS) critical care units between 2001 and 2020 reported to the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre. Diagnoses, physiological variables, organ support and clinical outcomes were analysed over the whole period, and for consecutive 5-year intervals within it. Predictors of in-hospital mortality were identified using a backward stepwise regression model. RESULTS: We identified 20,178 critical care admissions for neurological infection. Encephalitis was the most frequent presentation to critical care, comprising 6725 (33.3%) of 20,178 cases. Meningitis- bacterial, viral or unspecified cases - accounted for 10,056 (49.8%) of cases. In-hospital mortality was high, at 3945/19,765 (20.0%) overall. Over the four consecutive 5-year periods, there were trends towards higher Glasgow Coma Scale scores on admission, longer critical care admissions (from median 4 [IQR 2-8] to 5 days [IQR 2-10]), and reduced in-hospital mortality (from 24.9 to 18.1%). We identified 12 independent predictors of in-hospital death which when used together showed good discrimination between patients who die and those who survive (AUC = 0.79). CONCLUSIONS: Admissions with neurological infection to UK critical care services are increasing and the mortality, although improving, remains high. To further improve outcomes from severe neurological infection, novel approaches to the evaluation of risk stratification, monitoring and management strategies are required.

KEY POINTS: • Meningitis comprised 50% and encephalitis comprised 33% of neurological infections requiring critical care admission. • During the 20-year study period, there was a progressive trend of increasing neurological infection admissions to critical care, and a reduction in the overall mortality rate.

Commercial Immunoglobulin Products Contain Neutralizing Antibodies Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Spike Protein.

BACKGROUND: Patients with antibody deficiency respond poorly to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and are at risk of severe or prolonged infection. They are given long-term immunoglobulin replacement therapy (IRT) prepared from healthy donor plasma to confer passive immunity against infection. Following widespread COVID-19 vaccination alongside natural exposure, we hypothesized that immunoglobulin preparations will now contain neutralizing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike antibodies, which confer protection against COVID-19 disease and may help to treat chronic infection. METHODS: We evaluated anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody in a cohort of patients before and after immunoglobulin infusion. Neutralizing capacity of patient samples and immunoglobulin products was assessed using in vitro pseudovirus and live-virus neutralization assays, the latter investigating multiple batches against current circulating Omicron variants. We describe the clinical course of 9 patients started on IRT during treatment of COVID-19. RESULTS: In 35 individuals with antibody deficiency established on IRT, median anti-spike antibody titer increased from 2123 to 10 600 U/mL postinfusion, with corresponding increase in pseudovirus neutralization titers to levels comparable to healthy donors. Testing immunoglobulin products directly in the live-virus assay confirmed neutralization, including of BQ1.1 and XBB variants, but with variation between immunoglobulin products and batches.Initiation of IRT alongside remdesivir in patients with antibody deficiency and prolonged COVID-19 infection (median 189 days, maximum >900 days with an ancestral viral strain) resulted in clearance of SARS-CoV-2 at a median of 20 days. CONCLUSIONS: Immunoglobulin preparations now contain neutralizing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies that are transmitted to patients and help to treat COVID-19 in individuals with failure of humoral immunity.

Community-acquired bacterial meningitis.

Progress has been made in the prevention and treatment of community-acquired bacterial meningitis during the past three decades but the burden of the disease remains high globally. Conjugate vaccines against the three most common causative pathogens (Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Haemophilus influenzae) have reduced the incidence of disease, but with the replacement by non-vaccine pneumococcal serotypes and the emergence of bacterial strains with reduced susceptibility to antimicrobial treatment, meningitis continues to pose a major health challenge worldwide. In patients presenting with bacterial meningitis, typical clinical characteristics (such as the classic triad of neck stiffness, fever, and an altered mental status) might be absent and cerebrospinal fluid examination for biochemistry, microscopy, culture, and PCR to identify bacterial DNA are essential for the diagnosis. Multiplex PCR point-of-care panels in cerebrospinal fluid show promise in accelerating the diagnosis, but diagnostic accuracy studies to justify routine implementation are scarce and randomised, controlled studies are absent. Early administration of antimicrobial treatment (within 1 hour of presentation) improves outcomes and needs to be adjusted according to local emergence of drug resistance. Adjunctive dexamethasone treatment has proven efficacy beyond the neonatal age but only in patients from high-income countries. Further progress can be expected from implementing preventive measures, especially the development of new vaccines, implementation of hospital protocols aimed at early treatment, and new treatments targeting checkpoints of the inflammatory cascade.

Acute bacterial meningitis.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Community-acquired bacterial meningitis is a continually changing disease. This review summarises both dynamic epidemiology and emerging data on pathogenesis. Updated clinical guidelines are discussed, new agents undergoing clinical trials intended to reduce secondary brain damage are presented. RECENT FINDINGS: Conjugate vaccines are effective against serotype/serogroup-specific meningitis but vaccine escape variants are rising in prevalence. Meningitis occurs when bacteria evade mucosal and circulating immune responses and invade the brain: directly, or across the blood-brain barrier. Tissue damage is caused when host genetic susceptibility is exploited by bacterial virulence. The classical clinical triad of fever, neck stiffness and headache has poor diagnostic sensitivity, all guidelines reflect the necessity for a low index of suspicion and early Lumbar puncture. Unnecessary cranial imaging causes diagnostic delays. cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture and PCR are diagnostic, direct next-generation sequencing of CSF may revolutionise diagnostics. Administration of early antibiotics is essential to improve survival. Dexamethasone partially mitigates central nervous system inflammation in high-income settings. New agents in clinical trials include C5 inhibitors and daptomycin, data are expected in 2025. SUMMARY: Clinicians must remain vigilant for bacterial meningitis. Constantly changing epidemiology and emerging pathogenesis data are increasing the understanding of meningitis. Prospects for better treatments are forthcoming.

Construction of a pneumolysin deficient mutant in streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 1 strain 519/43 and phenotypic characterisation.

Streptococcus pneumoniae capsular serotype 1 continues to pose a huge infectious disease burden in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in West Africa. However, studies on this important serotype have been hampered by the inability to genetically modify these strains. In this study we have genetically modified a serotype 1 strain (519/43), the first time that this has been achieved for this serotype, providing the methodology for a deeper understanding of its biology and pathogenicity. As proof of principle we constructed a defined pneumolysin mutant and showed that it lost its ability to lyse red blood cells. We also showed that when mice were infected intranasally with the mutant 519/43Δply there was no significant difference between the load of bacteria in lungs and blood when compared to the wild type 519/43. When mice were infected intraperitoneally there were significantly fewer bacteria recovered from blood for the mutant 519/43Δply strain, although all mice still displayed signs of disease. Our study demonstrates S. pneumoniae serotype 1 strains can be genetically manipulated using our methodology and demonstrate that the ability to cause pneumonia in mice is independent of active pneumolysin for the 519/43 serotype 1 strain.

Prediction of Outcome From Adult Bacterial Meningitis in a High-HIV-Seroprevalence, Resource-Poor Setting Using the Malawi Adult Meningitis Score (MAMS).

Background: Acute bacterial meningitis (ABM) in adults residing in resource-poor countries is associated with mortality rates >50%. To improve outcome, interventional trials and standardized clinical algorithms are urgently required. To optimize these processes, we developed and validated an outcome prediction tool to identify ABM patients at greatest risk of death. Methods: We derived a nomogram using mortality predictors derived from a logistic regression model of a discovery database of adult Malawian patients with ABM (n = 523 [65%] cerebrospinal fluid [CSF] culture positive). We validated the nomogram internally using a bootstrap procedure and subsequently used the nomogram scores to further interpret the effects of adjunctive dexamethasone and glycerol using clinical trial data from Malawi. Results: ABM mortality at 6-week follow-up was 54%. Five of 15 variables tested were strongly associated with poor outcome (CSF culture positivity, CSF white blood cell count, hemoglobin, Glasgow Coma Scale, and pulse rate), and were used in the derivation of the Malawi Adult Meningitis Score (MAMS) nomogram. The C-index (area under the curve) was 0.76 (95% confidence interval, .71-.80) and calibration was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow C-statistic = 5.48, df = 8, P = .705). Harmful effects of adjunctive glycerol were observed in groups with relatively low predicted risk of poor outcome (25%-50% risk): Case Fatality Rate of 21% in the placebo group and 52% in the glycerol group (P < .001). This effect was not seen with adjunctive dexamethasone. Conclusions: MAMS provides a novel tool for predicting prognosis and improving interpretation of ABM clinical trials by risk stratification in resource-poor settings. Whether MAMS can be applied to non-HIV-endemic countries requires further evaluation.

Bacterial meningitis in Malawian adults, adolescents, and children during the era of antiretroviral scale-up and Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccination, 2000-2012.

BACKGROUND: We documented bacterial meningitis trends among adults and children presenting to a large teaching hospital in Malawi during introduction of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccination and the rollout of antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We analyzed data from 51 000 consecutive cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples obtained from adults, adolescents, and children with suspected meningitis admitted to the Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi, between 2000 and 2012. RESULTS: There was a significant decline in the total number of CSF isolates over 12 years (incident rate ratio [IRR], 0.93; 95% CI, .92-.94; P < .001). This decline was entirely in children aged <5 years (IRR, 0.87; 95% CI, .85-.88; P < .001) and coincided with the introduction of Hib vaccination. The number of adult isolates has remained unchanged (IRR, 0.99; 95% CI, .97-1.0; P = .135) despite rapid scale-up of ART provision. In children aged <5 years, Streptococcus pneumoniae, nontyphoidal salmonellae (NTS), and Hib were the most frequently isolated pathogens, and have declined over this time period. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most frequently isolated pathogen in older children and adults. Estimated incidence of bacterial meningitis in 2012 was 20 per 100,000 cases in children aged <14 years, 6 per 100,000 adolescents, and 10 per 100,000 adults. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of bacterial meningitis have declined in children, but not adults, coinciding with the introduction of Hib vaccination. The highly successful rollout of ART has not yet resulted in a reduction in the incidence in adults where the burden remains high. Long-term surveillance of bacterial meningitis outside of the epidemic "meningitis belt" in Africa is essential.

Chronogram: an R package for data curation and analysis of infection and vaccination cohort studies.

Motivation: Observational cohort studies that track vaccine and infection responses offer real-world data to inform pandemic policy. Translating biological hypotheses, such as whether different patterns of accumulated antigenic exposures confer differing antibody responses, into analysis code can be onerous, particularly when source data is dis-aggregated. Results: The R package chronogram introduces the class chronogram, where metadata is seamlessly aggregated with sparse infection episode, clinical and laboratory data. Each experimental modality is added sequentially, allowing the incorporation of new data, such as specialized time-consuming research assays, or their downstream analyses. Source data can be any rectangular data format, including database tables (such as structured query language databases). This supports annotations that aggregate data types/sources, for example, combining symptoms, molecular testing, and sequencing of one or more infectious episodes in a pathogen-agnostic manner. Chronogram arranges observational data to allow the translation of biological hypotheses into their corresponding code via a shared vocabulary. Availability and implementation: Chronogram is implemented R and available under an MIT licence at: https://www.github.com/FrancisCrickInstitute/chronogram; a user manual is available at: https://franciscrickinstitute.github.io/chronogram/.

COVID-19 in non-hospitalised adults caused by either SARS-CoV-2 sub-variants Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/5 or Delta associates with similar illness duration, symptom severity and viral kinetics, irrespective of vaccination history.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron rapidly evolved over 2022, causing three waves of infection due to sub-variants BA.1, BA.2 and BA.4/5. We sought to characterise symptoms and viral loads over the course of COVID-19 infection with these sub-variants in otherwise-healthy, vaccinated, non-hospitalised adults, and compared data to infections with the preceding Delta variant of concern (VOC). METHODS: In a prospective, observational cohort study, healthy vaccinated UK adults who reported a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or lateral flow test, self-swabbed on alternate weekdays until day 10. We compared participant-reported symptoms and viral load trajectories between infections caused by VOCs Delta and Omicron (sub-variants BA.1, BA.2 or BA.4/5), and tested for relationships between vaccine dose, symptoms and PCR cycle threshold (Ct) as a proxy for viral load using Chi-squared (χ2) and Wilcoxon tests. RESULTS: 563 infection episodes were reported among 491 participants. Across infection episodes, there was little variation in symptom burden (4 [IQR 3-5] symptoms) and duration (8 [IQR 6-11] days). Whilst symptom profiles differed among infections caused by Delta compared to Omicron sub-variants, symptom profiles were similar between Omicron sub-variants. Anosmia was reported more frequently in Delta infections after 2 doses compared with Omicron sub-variant infections after 3 doses, for example: 42% (25/60) of participants with Delta infection compared to 9% (6/67) with Omicron BA.4/5 (χ2 P < 0.001; OR 7.3 [95% CI 2.7-19.4]). Fever was less common with Delta (20/60 participants; 33%) than Omicron BA.4/5 (39/67; 58%; χ2 P = 0.008; OR 0.4 [CI 0.2-0.7]). Amongst infections with an Omicron sub-variants, symptoms of coryza, fatigue, cough and myalgia predominated. Viral load trajectories and peaks did not differ between Delta, and Omicron, irrespective of symptom severity (including asymptomatic participants), VOC or vaccination status. PCR Ct values were negatively associated with time since vaccination in participants infected with BA.1 (ß = -0.05 (CI -0.10-0.01); P = 0.031); however, this trend was not observed in BA.2 or BA.4/5 infections. CONCLUSION: Our study emphasises both the changing symptom profile of COVID-19 infections in the Omicron era, and ongoing transmission risk of Omicron sub-variants in vaccinated adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04750356.

Real-time estimation of immunological responses against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the UK: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and COVID-19 vaccination have resulted in complex exposure histories. Rapid assessment of the effects of these exposures on neutralising antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial for informing vaccine strategy and epidemic management. We aimed to investigate heterogeneity in individual-level and population-level antibody kinetics to emerging variants by previous SARS-CoV-2 exposure history, to examine implications for real-time estimation, and to examine the effects of vaccine-campaign timing. METHODS: Our Bayesian hierarchical model of antibody kinetics estimated neutralising-antibody trajectories against a panel of SARS-CoV-2 variants quantified with a live virus microneutralisation assay and informed by individual-level COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection histories. Antibody titre trajectories were modelled with a piecewise linear function that depended on the key biological quantities of an initial titre value, time the peak titre is reached, set-point time, and corresponding rates of increase and decrease for gradients between two timing parameters. All process parameters were estimated at both the individual level and the population level. We analysed data from participants in the University College London Hospitals-Francis Crick Institute Legacy study cohort (NCT04750356) who underwent surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 either through asymptomatic mandatory occupational health screening once per week between April 1, 2020, and May 31, 2022, or symptom-based testing between April 1, 2020, and Feb 1, 2023. People included in the Legacy study were either Crick employees or health-care workers at three London hospitals, older than 18 years, and gave written informed consent. Legacy excluded people who were unable or unwilling to give informed consent and those not employed by a qualifying institution. We segmented data to include vaccination events occurring up to 150 days before the emergence of three variants of concern: delta, BA.2, and XBB 1.5. We split the data for each wave into two categories: real-time and retrospective. The real-time dataset contained neutralising-antibody titres collected up to the date of emergence in each wave; the retrospective dataset contained all samples until the next SARS-CoV-2 exposure of each individual, whether vaccination or infection. FINDINGS: We included data from 335 participants in the delta wave analysis, 223 (67%) of whom were female and 112 (33%) of whom were male (median age 40 years, IQR 22-58); data from 385 participants in the BA.2 wave analysis, 271 (70%) of whom were female and 114 (30%) of whom were male (41 years, 22-60); and data from 248 participants in the XBB 1.5 wave analysis, 191 (77%) of whom were female, 56 (23%) of whom were male, and one (<1%) of whom preferred not to say (40 years, 21-59). Overall, we included 968 exposures (vaccinations) across 1895 serum samples in the model. For the delta wave, we estimated peak titre values as 490·0 IC50 (95% credible interval 224·3-1515·9) for people with no previous infection and as 702·4 IC50 (300·8-2322·7) for people with a previous infection before omicron; the delta wave did not include people with a previous omicron infection. For the BA.2 wave, we estimated peak titre values as 858·1 IC50 (689·8-1363·2) for people with no previous infection, 1020·7 IC50 (725·9-1722·6) for people with a previous infection before omicron, and 1422·0 IC50 (679·2-3027·3) for people with a previous omicron infection. For the XBB 1.5 wave, we estimated peak titre values as 703·2 IC50 (415·0-3197·8) for people with no previous infection, 1215·9 IC50 (511·6-7338·7) for people with a previous infection before omicron, and 1556·3 IC50 (757·2-7907·9) for people with a previous omicron infection. INTERPRETATION: Our study shows the feasibility of real-time estimation of antibody kinetics before SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence. This estimation is valuable for understanding how specific combinations of SARS-CoV-2 exposures influence antibody kinetics and for examining how COVID-19 vaccination-campaign timing could affect population-level immunity to emerging variants. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, UK Research and Innovation, UK Medical Research Council, Francis Crick Institute, and Genotype-to-Phenotype National Virology Consortium.