Long-term colchicine for the prevention of vascular recurrent events in non-cardioembolic stroke (CONVINCE): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Anti-inflammatory therapy with long-term colchicine prevented vascular recurrence in coronary disease. Unlike coronary disease, which is typically caused by atherosclerosis, ischaemic stroke is caused by diverse mechanisms including atherosclerosis and small vessel disease or is frequently due to an unknown cause. We aimed to investigate the hypothesis that long-term colchicine would reduce recurrent events after ischaemic stroke. METHODS: We did a randomised, parallel-group, open-label, blinded endpoint assessed trial comparing long-term colchicine (0·5 mg orally per day) plus guideline-based usual care with usual care only. Hospital-based patients with non-severe, non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or high-risk transient ischaemic attack were eligible. The primary endpoint was a composite of first fatal or non-fatal recurrent ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, or hospitalisation (defined as an admission to an inpatient unit or a visit to an emergency department that resulted in at least a 24 h stay [or a change in calendar date if the hospital admission or discharge times were not available]) for unstable angina. The p value for significance was 0·048 to adjust for two prespecified interim analyses conducted by the data monitoring committee, for which the steering committee and trial investigators remained blinded. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02898610) and is completed. FINDINGS: 3154 patients were randomly assigned between Dec 19, 2016, and Nov 21, 2022, with the last follow-up on Jan 31, 2024. The trial finished before the anticipated number of outcomes was accrued (367 outcomes planned) due to budget constraints attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ten patients withdrew consent for analysis of their data, leaving 3144 patients in the intention-to-treat analysis: 1569 (colchicine and usual care) and 1575 (usual care alone). A primary endpoint occurred in 338 patients, 153 (9·8%) of 1569 patients allocated to colchicine and usual care and 185 (11·7%) of 1575 patients allocated to usual care alone (incidence rates 3·32 vs 3·92 per 100 person-years, hazard ratio 0·84; 95% CI 0·68-1·05, p=0·12). Although no between-group difference in C-reactive protein (CRP) was observed at baseline, patients treated with colchicine had lower CRP at 28 days and at 1, 2, and 3 years (p<0·05 for all timepoints). The rates of serious adverse events were similar in both groups. INTERPRETATION: Although no statistically significant benefit was observed on the primary intention-to-treat analysis, the findings provide new evidence supporting the rationale for anti-inflammatory therapy in further randomised trials. FUNDING: Health Research Board Ireland, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation), and Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Vlaanderen (Research Foundation Flanders), Belgium.

Interleukin-6, C-Reactive Protein, and Recurrence After Stroke: A Time-Course Analysis of Individual-Participant Data.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation promotes atherogenesis. Randomized controlled trials of anti-inflammatory therapies for prevention after stroke have not yet demonstrated clear benefit. IL-6 (interleukin-6) and hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) are independently associated with major adverse cardiovascular events poststroke and may guide patient selection in future randomized controlled trials. Optimal timing of hsCRP/IL-6 measurement poststroke is unknown, as early blood levels may be confounded by the inflammatory response to brain infarction. METHODS: Using individual-participant data from a systematic review, we performed a time-course analysis to investigate the association between hsCRP/IL-6 and recurrent events stratified by timing of sampling. The prespecified coprimary end points after sample measurement were: (1) recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (first major coronary event, recurrent stroke, or vascular death) and (2) recurrent stroke (ischemic, hemorrhagic, or unspecified). The poststroke dynamics of IL-6/hsCRP were analyzed by plotting their median (interquartile interval) concentrations within each tenth of the sampling timeframe. Acute/postacute phases were defined for each biomarker according to the shape of this relationship. RESULTS: There were data for 9798 patients from 11 studies (19 891 person-years follow-up, 10 observational cohorts, and 1 randomized trial). Each marker was measured once. IL-6 was markedly elevated <24 hours poststroke compared with postacute levels (≥24 hours; 11.6 versus 3.02 pg/mL; P<0.001). HsCRP was elevated for 10 days. IL-6 was associated with recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events in the postacute phase (≥24 hours; risk ratio, 1.30 [CI, 1.19-1.41], per unit logeIL-6), but not in the acute phase (<24 hours; risk ratio, 1.10 [CI, 0.98-1.25]; Pinteraction=0.03). After adjustment for risk factors/medication, the association remained for postacute IL-6 when analyzed per logeunit (risk ratio, 1.16 [CI, 1.05-1.66]) and per quarter increase (risk ratio, 1.55 [CI, 1.19-2.02]; Q4 versus Q1), but not if measured acutely. Similar findings were observed for recurrent stroke. There was no evidence of time-dependent interaction with hsCRP. CONCLUSIONS: Timing of sample measurement after stroke modifies the association with recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events for IL-6 but not hsCRP. These data inform future randomized controlled trial designs incorporating biomarker-based selection of patients for anti-inflammatory therapies.

C-Reactive Protein, Interleukin-6, and Vascular Recurrence After Stroke: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Anti-inflammatory therapies reduce recurrent vascular events in coronary disease. Existing studies have reported highly conflicting findings for the association of blood inflammatory markers with vascular recurrence after stroke leading to uncertainty about the potential of anti-inflammatory therapies after stroke and no consensus about the utility of measurement of inflammatory markers in current guidelines. METHODS: We investigated the association between hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), IL-6 (interluekin-6), and recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and stroke from individual participant data from 8420 patients with ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack from 10 prospective studies. We did within-study multivariable regression analyses and then combined adjusted risk ratio (RR) by random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: During 18 920 person-years of follow-up, 1407 (16.7% [95% CI, 15.9-17.5]) patients had MACE and 1191 (14.1% [95% CI, 13.4-14.9]) patients had recurrent stroke. On bivariate analysis, baseline IL-6 was associated with MACE (RR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.10-1.43]) and recurrent stroke (RR, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.05-1.32]), per unit increase logeIL-6. Similar associations were observed for hsCRP (MACE RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.09-1.29]; recurrent stroke RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.04-1.21], per unit increase logehsCRP). After adjustment for vascular risk factors and treatment, independent associations remained with MACE (IL-6, RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.04-1.21]; hsCRP, RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.04-1.15]) and recurrent stroke (IL-6, RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.00-1.19]; hsCRP, RR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.00-1.11]). Comparing the top with the bottom quarters (Q4 versus Q1), IL-6 (RR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.09-1.67]) and hsCRP (RR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.07-1.61]) were associated with MACE after adjustment. Similar results were observed for recurrent stroke for IL-6 (RR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.08-1.65]) but not hsCRP (RR, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.93-1.43]). CONCLUSIONS: Blood markers of inflammation were independently associated with vascular recurrence after stroke, strengthening the rationale for randomized trials of anti-inflammatory therapies for secondary prevention after ischemic stroke/TIA.

A Comparison of Relative-Efficacy Estimate(S) Derived From Both Matching-Adjusted Indirect Comparisons and Standard Anchored Indirect Treatment Comparisons: A Review of Matching-Adjusted Indirect Comparisons.

OBJECTIVES: We present an empirical comparison of relative-efficacy estimate(s) from matching-adjusted indirect comparisons (MAICs) with estimates from corresponding standard anchored indirect treatment comparisons. METHODS: A total of 80 comparisons were identified from 17 publications through a systematic rapid review. A standardized metric that used reported relative treatment efficacy estimates and their associated uncertainty was used to compare the methods across different treatment indications and outcome measures. RESULTS: On aggregate, MAICs presented for connected networks tended to report a more favorable relative-efficacy estimate for the treatment for which individual-level patient data were available relative to the reported indirect treatment comparison estimate. CONCLUSIONS: Although we recognize the importance of MAIC and other population adjustment methods in certain situations, we recommend that results from these analyses are interpreted with caution. Researchers and analysts should carefully consider if MAICs are appropriate where presented and whether MAICs would have added value where omitted.

Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions.

To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed; principles for designing a complex systems model; and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.

Impact of serum sodium concentrations, and effect modifiers on mortality in the Irish Health System.

BACKGROUND: Abnormalities of serum sodium are associated with increased mortality risk in hospitalised patients, but it is unclear whether, and to what extent other factors influence this relationship. We investigated the impact of dysnatraemia on total and cause-specific mortality in the Irish health system while exploring the concurrent impact of age, kidney function and designated clinical work-based settings. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of 32,666 participants was conducted using data from the National Kidney Disease Surveillance System. Hyponatraemia was defined as < 135 mmol/L and hypernatraemia as > 145 mmol/L with normal range 135-145 mmol/L. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR's) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) while penalised spline models further examined patterns of risk. RESULTS: There were 5,114 deaths (15.7%) over a median follow up of 5.5 years. Dysnatraemia was present in 8.5% of patients overall. In multivariable analysis, both baseline and time-dependent serum sodium concentrations exhibited a U-shaped association with mortality. Hyponatremia was significantly associated with increased risk for cardiovascular [HR 1.38 (1.18-1.61)], malignant [HR: 2.49 (2.23-2.78)] and non-cardiovascular/non-malignant causes of death [1.36 (1.17-1.58)], while hypernatremia was significantly associated with cardiovascular [HR: 2.16 (1.58-2.96)] and non-cardiovascular/ non-malignant deaths respectively [HR: 3.60 (2.87-4.52)]. The sodium-mortality relationship was significantly influenced by age, level of kidney function and the clinical setting at baseline (P < 0.001). For hyponatraemia, relative mortality risks were significantly higher for younger patients (interaction term P < 0.001), for patients with better kidney function, and for patients attending general practice [HR 2.70 (2.15-3.36)] than other clinical settings. For hypernatraemia, age and kidney function remained significant effect modifiers, with patients attending outpatient departments experiencing the greatest risk [HR 9.84 (4.88-18.62)] than patients who attended other clinical locations. Optimal serum sodium thresholds for mortality varied by level of kidney function with a flattening of mortality curve observed for patients with poorer kidney function. CONCLUSION: Serum sodium concentrations outside the standard normal range adversly impact mortality and are associated with specific causes of death. The thresholds at which these risks appear to vary by age, level of kidney function, and are modified in specific clinical settings within the health system.

Estimating the conditional probability of developing human papilloma virus related oropharyngeal cancer by combining machine learning and inverse Bayesian modelling.

The epidemic increase in the incidence of Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) related Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinomas (OPSCCs) in several countries worldwide represents a significant public health concern. Although gender neutral HPV vaccination programmes are expected to cause a reduction in the incidence rates of OPSCCs, these effects will not be evident in the foreseeable future. Secondary prevention strategies are currently not feasible due to an incomplete understanding of the natural history of oral HPV infections in OPSCCs. The key parameters that govern natural history models remain largely ill-defined for HPV related OPSCCs and cannot be easily inferred from experimental data. Mathematical models have been used to estimate some of these ill-defined parameters in cervical cancer, another HPV related cancer leading to successful implementation of cancer prevention strategies. We outline a "double-Bayesian" mathematical modelling approach, whereby, a Bayesian machine learning model first estimates the probability of an individual having an oral HPV infection, given OPSCC and other covariate information. The model is then inverted using Bayes' theorem to reverse the probability relationship. We use data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry, SEER Head and Neck with HPV Database and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES), representing the adult population in the United States to derive our model. The model contains 8,106 OPSCC patients of which 73.0% had an oral HPV infection. When stratified by age, sex, marital status and race/ethnicity, the model estimated a higher conditional probability for developing OPSCCs given an oral HPV infection in non-Hispanic White males and females compared to other races/ethnicities. The proposed Bayesian model represents a proof-of-concept of a natural history model of HPV driven OPSCCs and outlines a strategy for estimating the conditional probability of an individual's risk of developing OPSCC following an oral HPV infection.

Development of a factorial survey for use in an international study examining clinicians' likelihood to support the decision to initiate invasive long-term ventilation for a child (the TechChild study).

BACKGROUND: The decision to initiate invasive long-term ventilation for a child with complex medical needs can be extremely challenging. TechChild is a research programme that aims to explore the liminal space between initial consideration of such technology dependence and the final decision. This paper presents a best practice example of the development of a unique use of the factorial survey method to identify the main influencing factors in this critical juncture in a child's care. METHODS: We developed a within-subjects design factorial survey. In phase 1 (design) we defined the survey goal (dependent variable, mode and sample). We defined and constructed the factors and factor levels (independent variables) using previous qualitative research and existing scientific literature. We further refined these factors based on expert feedback from expert clinicians and a statistician. In phase two (pretesting), we subjected the survey tool to several iterations (cognitive interviewing, face validity testing, statistical review, usability testing). In phase three (piloting) testing focused on feasibility testing with members of the target population (n = 18). Ethical approval was obtained from the then host institution's Health Sciences Ethics Committee. RESULTS: Initial refinement of factors was guided by literature and interviews with clinicians and grouped into four broad categories: Clinical, Child and Family, Organisational, and Professional characteristics. Extensive iterative consultations with clinical and statistical experts, including analysis of cognitive interviews, identified best practice in terms of appropriate: inclusion and order of clinical content; cognitive load and number of factors; as well as language used to suit an international audience. The pilot study confirmed feasibility of the survey. The final survey comprised a 43-item online tool including two age-based sets of clinical vignettes, eight of which were randomly presented to each participant from a total vignette population of 480. CONCLUSIONS: This paper clearly explains the processes involved in the development of a factorial survey for the online environment that is internationally appropriate, relevant, and useful to research an increasingly important subject in modern healthcare. This paper provides a framework for researchers to apply a factorial survey approach in wider health research, making this underutilised approach more accessible to a wider audience.

An alternative formulation of Coxian phase-type distributions with covariates: Application to emergency department length of stay.

In this article, we present a new methodology to model patient transitions and length of stay in the emergency department using a series of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions, with covariates. We reformulate the Coxian models (standard Coxian, Coxian with multiple absorbing states, joint Coxian, and conditional Coxian) to take into account heterogeneity in patient characteristics such as arrival mode, time of admission, and age. The approach differs from previous research in that it reduces the computational time, and it allows the inclusion of patient covariate information directly into the model. The model is applied to emergency department data from University Hospital Limerick in Ireland, where we find broad agreement with a number of commonly used survival models (parametric Weibull and log-normal regression models and the semiparametric Cox proportional hazards model).

Primary vaccination in foals: a comparison of the serological response to equine influenza and equine herpesvirus vaccines administered concurrently or 2 weeks apart.

This study compared concurrent and separate primary vaccination against equid alphaherpesviruses 1 and 4, genus Varicellovirus, subfamily Alphaherpesvirinae, family Herpesviridae, and equine influenza A virus, genus Alphainfluenzavirus, family Orthomyxoviridae. Their vernacular names are equine herpesvirus 1 and 4 (EHV1/4) and equine influenza virus (EIV). Infection with these respiratory pathogens is associated with loss of performance, interruption of training schedules, and on occasion, cancellation of equestrian events. Vaccination is highly recommended, and for some activities it is a mandatory requirement of the relevant authority. As there is a dearth of information relating to the impact of concurrent vaccination on the antibody response to EHV and EIV vaccines, they are usually administered separately, often 2 weeks apart. In a previous study of booster vaccination in Thoroughbred racehorses, concurrent vaccination with whole-virus inactivated carbopol-adjuvanted EHV and EIV vaccines did not impact negatively on the antibody response. In this study, investigations were extended to concurrent versus separate primary vaccination of warmblood foals. A field study was conducted to compare the immune response to a carbopol-adjuvanted EHV vaccine and an immune stimulating complex (ISCOM)-adjuvanted EI vaccine administered concurrently and 2 weeks apart. No adverse clinical reactions were observed, the pattern of EI and EHV antibody response was similar for both groups, and there was no evidence that concurrent primary vaccination compromised the humoral response. The results are of relevance to horse owners who wish to decrease veterinary costs, limit handling of young animals, and simplify record keeping by vaccinating concurrently.

Prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Irish hospital healthcare workers.

Hospital healthcare workers (HCWs) are at increased risk of contracting COVID-19 infection. We aimed to determine the seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies in HCWs in Ireland. Two tertiary referral hospitals in Irish cities with diverging community incidence and seroprevalence were identified; COVID-19 had been diagnosed in 10.2% and 1.8% of staff respectively by the time of the study (October 2020). All staff of both hospitals (N = 9038) were invited to participate in an online questionnaire and blood sampling for SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing. Frequencies and percentages for positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody were calculated and adjusted relative risks (aRR) for participant characteristics were calculated using multivariable regression analysis. In total, 5788 HCWs participated (64% response rate). Seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 was 15% and 4.1% in hospitals 1 and 2, respectively. Thirty-nine percent of infections were previously undiagnosed. Risk for seropositivity was higher for healthcare assistants (aRR 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-3.0), nurses (aRR: 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.2), daily exposure to patients with COVID-19 (aRR: 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-2.1), age 18-29 years (aRR: 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.9), living with other HCWs (aRR: 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5), Asian background (aRR: 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6) and male sex (aRR: 1.2, 95% CI 1.0-1.4). The HCW seroprevalence was six times higher than community seroprevalence. Risk was higher for those with close patient contact. The proportion of undiagnosed infections call for robust infection control guidance, easy access to testing and consideration of screening in asymptomatic HCWs. With emerging evidence of reduction in transmission from vaccinated individuals, the authors strongly endorse rapid vaccination of all HCWs.

Estimation of the serial interval and proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission events of COVID- 19 in Ireland using contact tracing data.

BACKGROUND: The serial interval is the period of time between the onset of symptoms in an infector and an infectee and is an important parameter which can impact on the estimation of the reproduction number. Whilst several parameters influencing infection transmission are expected to be consistent across populations, the serial interval can vary across and within populations over time. Therefore, local estimates are preferable for use in epidemiological models developed at a regional level. We used data collected as part of the national contact tracing process in Ireland to estimate the serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Irish population, and to estimate the proportion of transmission events that occurred prior to the onset of symptoms. RESULTS: After data cleaning, the final dataset consisted of 471 infected close contacts from 471 primary cases. The median serial interval was 4 days, mean serial interval was 4.0 (95% confidence intervals 3.7, 4.3) days, whilst the 25th and 75th percentiles were 2 and 6 days respectively. We found that intervals were lower when the primary or secondary case were in the older age cohort (greater than 64 years). Simulating from an incubation period distribution from international literature, we estimated that 67% of transmission events had greater than 50% probability of occurring prior to the onset of symptoms in the infector. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst our analysis was based on a large sample size, data were collected for the primary purpose of interrupting transmission chains. Similar to other studies estimating the serial interval, our analysis is restricted to transmission pairs where the infector is known with some degree of certainty. Such pairs may represent more intense contacts with infected individuals than might occur in the overall population. It is therefore possible that our analysis is biased towards shorter serial intervals than the overall population.

Numbers of close contacts of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 and their association with government intervention strategies.

BACKGROUND: Contact tracing is conducted with the primary purpose of interrupting transmission from individuals who are likely to be infectious to others. Secondary analyses of data on the numbers of close contacts of confirmed cases could also: provide an early signal of increases in contact patterns that might precede larger than expected case numbers; evaluate the impact of government interventions on the number of contacts of confirmed cases; or provide data information on contact rates between age cohorts for the purpose of epidemiological modelling. We analysed data from 140,204 close contacts of 39,861 cases in Ireland from 1st May to 1st December 2020. RESULTS: Negative binomial regression models highlighted greater numbers of contacts within specific population demographics, after correcting for temporal associations. Separate segmented regression models of the number of cases over time and the average number of contacts per case indicated that a breakpoint indicating a rapid decrease in the number of contacts per case in October 2020 preceded a breakpoint indicating a reduction in the number of cases by 11 days. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the number of contacts per infected case was overdispersed, the mean varied considerable over time and was temporally associated with government interventions. Analysis of the reported number of contacts per individual in contact tracing data may be a useful early indicator of changes in behaviour in response to, or indeed despite, government restrictions. This study provides useful information for triangulating assumptions regarding the contact mixing rates between different age cohorts for epidemiological modelling.

Carotid Plaque Inflammation Imaged by 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography and Risk of Early Recurrent Stroke.

Background and Purpose- Plaque inflammation contributes to stroke and coronary events. 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) identifies plaque inflammation-related metabolism. Almost no prospective data exist on the relationship of carotid 18F-FDG uptake and early recurrent stroke. Methods- We did a multicenter prospective cohort study BIOVASC (Biomarkers/Imaging Vulnerable Atherosclerosis in Symptomatic Carotid disease) of patients with carotid stenosis and recent stroke/transient ischemic attack with 90-day follow-up. On coregistered carotid 18F-FDG PET/computed tomography angiography, 18F-FDG uptake was expressed as maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) in the axial single hottest slice. We then conducted a systematic review of similar studies and pooled unpublished individual-patient data with 2 highly similar independent studies (Dublin and Barcelona). We analyzed the association of SUVmax with all recurrent nonprocedural stroke (before and after PET) and with recurrent stroke after PET only. Results- In BIOVASC (n=109, 14 recurrent strokes), after adjustment (for age, sex, stenosis severity, antiplatelets, statins, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and smoking), the hazard ratio for recurrent stroke per 1 g/mL SUVmax was 2.2 (CI, 1.1-4.5; P=0.025). Findings were consistent in the independent Dublin (n=52, hazard ratio, 2.2; CI, 1.1-4.3) and Barcelona studies (n=35, hazard ratio, 2.8; CI, 0.98-5.5). In the pooled cohort (n=196), 37 recurrent strokes occurred (29 before and 8 after PET). Plaque SUVmax was higher in patients with all recurrence ( P<0.0001) and post-PET recurrence ( P=0.009). The fully adjusted hazard ratio of any recurrent stroke was 2.19 (CI, 1.41-3.39; P<0.001) and for post-PET recurrent stroke was 4.57 (CI, 1.5-13.96; P=0.008). Recurrent stroke risk increased across SUVmax quartiles (log-rank P=0.003). The area under receiver operating curve for all recurrence was 0.70 (CI, 0.59-0.78) and for post-PET recurrence was 0.80 (CI, 0.64-0.96). Conclusions- Plaque inflammation-related 18F-FDG uptake independently predicted future recurrent stroke post-PET. Although further studies are needed, 18F-FDG PET may improve patient selection for carotid revascularization and suggest that anti-inflammatory agents may have benefit for poststroke vascular prevention.

Incorporating single-arm evidence into a network meta-analysis using aggregate level matching: Assessing the impact.

Increasingly, single-armed evidence is included in health technology assessment submissions when companies are seeking reimbursement for new drugs. While it is recognized that randomized controlled trials provide a higher standard of evidence, these are not available for many new agents that have been granted licenses in recent years. Therefore, it is important to examine whether alternative strategies for assessing this evidence may be used. In this work, we examine approaches to incorporating single-armed evidence formally in the evaluation process. We consider matching aggregate level covariates to comparator arms or trials and including this evidence in a network meta-analysis. We consider two methods of matching: (i) we include the chosen matched arm in the data set itself as a comparator for the single-arm trial; (ii) we use the baseline odds of an event in a chosen matched trial to use as a plug-in estimator for the single-arm trial. We illustrate that the synthesis of evidence resulting from such a setup is sensitive to the between-study variability, formulation of the prior for the between-design effect, weight given to the single-arm evidence, and extent of the bias in single-armed evidence. We provide a flowchart for the process involved in such a synthesis and highlight additional sensitivity analyses that should be carried out. This work was motivated by a hepatitis C data set, where many agents have only been examined in single-arm studies. We present the results of our methods applied to this data set.

Interventions for preventing falls in people with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the most prevalent diseases of the central nervous system with recent prevalence estimates indicating that MS directly affects 2.3 million people worldwide. Fall rates of 56% have been reported among people with MS in a recent meta-analysis. Clinical guidelines do not outline an evidence-based approach to falls interventions in MS. There is a need for synthesised information regarding the effectiveness of falls prevention interventions in MS. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this review was to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions designed to reduce falls in people with MS. Specific objectives included comparing: (1) falls prevention interventions to controls and; (2) different types of falls prevention interventions. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Trials Register of the Cochrane Multiple Sclerosis and Rare Diseases of the CNS Group, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (2018 Issue 9); MEDLINE (PubMed) (1966 to 12 September 2018); Embase (EMBASE.com) (1974 to 12 September 2018); Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (EBSCOhost) (1981 to 12 September 2018); Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Information Database (Bireme) (1982 to 12 September 2018); ClinicalTrials.gov; and World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform; PsycINFO (1806 to 12 September 2018; and Physiotherapy Evidence Database (1999 to 12 September 2018). SELECTION CRITERIA: We selected randomised controlled trials or quasi-randomised trials of interventions to reduce falls in people with MS. We included trials that examined falls prevention interventions compared to controls or different types of falls prevention interventions. Primary outcomes included: falls rate, risk of falling, number of falls per person and adverse events. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors screened studies for selection, assessed risk of bias and extracted data. We used a rate ratio (RaR) and 95% confidence interval to compare falls rate between groups. For risk of falling, we used a risk ratio (RR) and 95% CI based on the number of fallers in each group. MAIN RESULTS: A total of 839 people with MS (12 to 177 individuals) were randomised in the 13 included trials. The mean age of the participants was 52 years (36 to 62 years). The percentage of women participants ranged from 59% to 85%. Studies included people with all types of MS. Most trials compared an exercise intervention with no intervention or different types of falls prevention interventions. We included two comparisons: (1) Falls prevention intervention versus control and (2) Falls prevention intervention versus another falls prevention intervention. The most common interventions tested were exercise as a single intervention, education as a single intervention, functional electrical stimulation and exercise plus education. The risk of bias of the included studies mixed, with nine studies demonstrating high risk of bias related to one or more aspects of their methodology. The evidence was uncertain regarding the effects of exercise versus control on falls rate (RaR of 0.68; 95% CI 0.43 to 1.06; very low-quality evidence), number of fallers (RR of 0.85; 95% CI 0.51 to 1.43; low-quality evidence) and adverse events (RR of 1.25; 95% CI 0.26 to 6.03; low-quality evidence). Data were not available on quality of life outcomes comparing exercise to control. The majority of other comparisons between falls interventions and controls demonstrated no evidence of effect in favour of either group for all primary outcomes. For the comparison of different falls prevention interventions, the heterogeneity of intervention types across studies prohibited the pooling of data. In relation to secondary outcomes, there was evidence of an effect in favour of exercise interventions compared to controls for balance function with a SMD of 0.50 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.92), self-reported mobility with a SMD of 16.30 (95% CI 9.34 to 23.26) and objective mobility with a SMD of 0.28 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.50). Secondary outcomes were not assessed under the GRADE criteria and results must be interpreted with caution. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence regarding the effects of interventions for preventing falls in MS is sparse and uncertain. The evidence base demonstrates mixed risk of bias, with very low to low certainty of the evidence. There is some evidence in favour of exercise interventions for the improvement of balance function and mobility. However, this must be interpreted with caution as these secondary outcomes were not assessed under the GRADE criteria and as the results represent data from a small number of studies. Robust RCTs examining the effectiveness of multifactorial falls interventions on falls outcomes are needed.

Nilvadipine in mild to moderate Alzheimer disease: A randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: This study reports the findings of the first large-scale Phase III investigator-driven clinical trial to slow the rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer disease with a dihydropyridine (DHP) calcium channel blocker, nilvadipine. Nilvadipine, licensed to treat hypertension, reduces amyloid production, increases regional cerebral blood flow, and has demonstrated anti-inflammatory and anti-tau activity in preclinical studies, properties that could have disease-modifying effects for Alzheimer disease. We aimed to determine if nilvadipine was effective in slowing cognitive decline in subjects with mild to moderate Alzheimer disease. METHODS AND FINDINGS: NILVAD was an 18-month, randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial that randomised participants between 15 May 2013 and 13 April 2015. The study was conducted at 23 academic centres in nine European countries. Of 577 participants screened, 511 were eligible and were randomised (258 to placebo, 253 to nilvadipine). Participants took a trial treatment capsule once a day after breakfast for 78 weeks. Participants were aged >50 years, meeting National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke/Alzheimer's disease Criteria (NINCDS-ADRDA) for diagnosis of probable Alzheimer disease, with a Standardised Mini-Mental State Examination (SMMSE) score of ≥12 and <27. Participants were randomly assigned to 8 mg sustained-release nilvadipine or matched placebo. The a priori defined primary outcome was progression on the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subscale-12 (ADAS-Cog 12) in the modified intention-to-treat (mITT) population (n = 498), with the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale sum of boxes (CDR-sb) as a gated co-primary outcome, eligible to be promoted to primary end point conditional on a significant effect on the ADAS-Cog 12. The analysis set had a mean age of 73 years and was 62% female. Baseline demographic and Alzheimer disease-specific characteristics were similar between treatment groups, with reported mean of 1.7 years since diagnosis and mean SMMSE of 20.4. The prespecified primary analyses failed to show any treatment benefit for nilvadipine on the co-primary outcome (p = 0.465). Decline from baseline in ADAS-Cog 12 on placebo was 0.79 (95% CI, -0.07-1.64) at 13 weeks, 6.41 (5.33-7.49) at 52 weeks, and 9.63 (8.33-10.93) at 78 weeks and on nilvadipine was 0.88 (0.02-1.74) at 13 weeks, 5.75 (4.66-6.85) at 52 weeks, and 9.41 (8.09-10.73) at 78 weeks. Exploratory analyses of the planned secondary outcomes showed no substantial effects, including on the CDR-sb or the Disability Assessment for Dementia. Nilvadipine appeared to be safe and well tolerated. Mortality was similar between groups (3 on nilvadipine, 4 on placebo); higher counts of adverse events (AEs) on nilvadipine (1,129 versus 1,030), and serious adverse events (SAEs; 146 versus 101), were observed. There were 14 withdrawals because of AEs. Major limitations of this study were that subjects had established dementia and the likelihood that non-Alzheimer subjects were included because of the lack of biomarker confirmation of the presence of brain amyloid. CONCLUSIONS: The results do not suggest benefit of nilvadipine as a treatment in a population spanning mild to moderate Alzheimer disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02017340, EudraCT number 2012-002764-27.

Subtraction multiphase CT angiography: A new technique for faster detection of intracranial arterial occlusions.

OBJECTIVE: To describe and evaluate a novel technical development to improve detection of intracranial vessel occlusions using multiphase CT angiography (MPCTA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The institutional ethics committee approved the study. Fifty patients (30 consecutive distal (M2 or smaller) anterior circulation occlusions, ten M1 occlusions, ten cases without occlusion) presenting with suspected AIS who underwent MPCTA were included. Post-processing of MPCTA studies created "subtraction" and "delayed enhancement" (DE) datasets. Initially, non-contrast CT and MPCTA studies for each patient were evaluated. Readers' confidence, speed and sensitivity of detection of intracranial vessel occlusions were recorded. After an interval of at least 4 weeks, readers were provided with post-processed images and studies were re-evaluated. RESULTS: While the sensitivity of detection of intracranial vessel occlusions was equal for both conventional MPCTA and subMPCTA, the mean time taken to identify a vessel occlusion decreased by 64 % using subMPCTA (16 s vs. 45 s with conventional MPCTA) (p<0.001). In addition, confidence in interpretation improved (from 4.4 to 4.9) using subMPCTA (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: SubMPCTA is a novel technique that aids in identifying small intracranial vessel occlusions in the suspected AIS patient. SubMPCTA increases confidence in interpretation and reduces the time taken to detect intracranial vessel occlusions. KEY POINTS: • SubMPCTA processes MPCTA data to better demonstrate intracranial arterial occlusions. • SubMPCTA increases confidence and speed of interpretation of MPCTA studies. • SubMPCTA may aid in rapidly differentiating acute ischaemic stroke from stroke mimics.

The use of single armed observational data to closing the gap in otherwise disconnected evidence networks: a network meta-analysis in multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND: Network meta-analysis (NMA) allows for the estimation of comparative effectiveness of treatments that have not been studied in head-to-head trials; however, relative treatment effects for all interventions can only be derived where available evidence forms a connected network. Head-to-head evidence is limited in many disease areas, regularly resulting in disconnected evidence structures where a large number of treatments are available. This is also the case in the evidence of treatments for relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. METHODS: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) identified in a systematic literature review form two disconnected evidence networks. Standard Bayesian NMA models are fitted to obtain estimates of relative effects within each network. Observational evidence was identified to fill the evidence gap. Single armed trials are matched to act as each other's control group based on a distance metric derived from covariate information. Uncertainty resulting from including this evidence is incorporated by analysing the space of possible matches. RESULTS: Twenty five randomised controlled trials form two disconnected evidence networks; 12 single armed observational studies are considered for bridging between the networks. Five matches are selected to bridge between the networks. While significant variation in the ranking is observed, daratumumab in combination with dexamethasone and either lenalidomide or bortezomib, as well as triple therapy of carfilzomib, ixazomib and elozumatab, in combination with lenalidomide and dexamethasone, show the highest effects on progression free survival, on average. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis shows how observational data can be used to fill gaps in the existing networks of RCT evidence; allowing for the indirect comparison of a large number of treatments, which could not be compared otherwise. Additional uncertainty is accounted for by scenario analyses reducing the risk of over confidence in interpretation of results.

Modifying the consistency of food and fluids for swallowing difficulties in dementia.

BACKGROUND: People with dementia can have feeding and swallowing difficulties (dysphagia). Modification of the consistency of food or fluids, or both, is a common management strategy. However, diet modification can affect quality of life and may lead to dehydration and malnutrition. Evidence on the benefits and risks of modifying food and fluids is mandatory to improve the care of people with dementia and dysphagia. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effectiveness and adverse effects associated with modifying the consistency of food and fluids in improving oral intake and eliminating aspiration in adults with dysphagia and dementia. SEARCH METHODS: We searched ALOIS (the Specialised Register of the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group), the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE via Ovid SP, Embase via Ovid SP, PsycINFO via Ovid SP, CINAHL via EBSCOhost, LILACS via BIREME, ClinicalTrials.gov and the World Health Organization (WHO) Portal on 9 May 2018. We also checked the reference lists of relevant articles to identify any additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs and cluster-RCTs published in any language that measured any of the outcomes of interest. We included trials with adults with a clinical diagnosis of dementia with symptoms and signs of dysphagia confirmed on instrumental assessment. We included participants with all types, stages and severities of dementia. Control groups received either no intervention or interventions not involving diet modification or modification to sensory properties of food. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed for inclusion all potential studies identified. Data were extracted independently along with assessment of methodological quality using standard Cochrane methods. We contacted study authors for additional unpublished information. MAIN RESULTS: No trials on modification of food met the inclusion criteria. We included two studies that examined modification to fluids. Both were part of the same large multicentre trial and included people with dementia and people with or without dementia and Parkinson's disease. Participation in the second trial was determined by results from the first trial. With unpublished data supplied by study authors, we examined data from participants with dementia only. The first study, a cross-over trial, investigated the immediate effects on aspiration of two viscosities of liquids (nectar thick and honey thick) compared to regular liquids in 351 participants with dementia using videofluoroscopy. Regular liquids with a chin down head posture, as well as regular liquids without any intervention were also compared. The sequence of interventions during videofluoroscopy may have influenced response to intervention. The second study, a parallel designed RCT, compared the effect of nectar and honey thick liquids with a chin down head posture over a three-month period in a subgroup of 260 participants with dementia. Outcomes were pneumonia and adverse intervention effects. Honey thick liquids, which are more consistent with descriptors for 'spoon thick' or 'extremely thick' liquids, showed a more positive impact on immediate elimination of aspiration during videofluoroscopy, but this consistency showed more adverse effects in the second follow-up study. During the second three-month follow-up trial, there were a greater number of incidents of pneumonia in participants receiving honey thick liquids than those receiving nectar thick liquids or taking regular liquids with a chin down posture. There were no deaths classified as 'definitely related' to the type of fluids prescribed. Neither trial addressed quality of life. Risk of bias for both studies is high. The overall quality of evidence for outcomes in this review is low. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We are uncertain about the immediate and long-term effects of modifying the consistency of fluid for swallowing difficulties in dementia as too few studies have been completed. There may be differences in outcomes depending on the grade of thickness of fluids and the sequence of interventions trialled in videofluoroscopy for people with dementia. Clinicians should be aware that while thickening fluids may have an immediate positive effect on swallowing, the long-term impact of thickened fluids on the health of the person with dementia should be considered. Further high-quality clinical trials are required.