Validating eDNA measurements of the richness and abundance of anurans at a large scale.

In some situations, environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is a more accurate tool for measuring species richness of a taxon than conventional methods. Whether this tool can reliably estimate the abundance of a taxon remains unresolved. We examined the reliability of metabarcoding for measuring anuran diversity compared to a commonly used traditional line transect method (TLTM) through the replicate sampling of three visits across 71 waterbodies (ponds or reservoirs) in Liuheng, China. We also investigated the relative contributions of species-specific characteristics and the physiochemical properties of a waterbody on the relative read count across species and waterbodies. We found that eDNA metabarcoding had a higher detection probability for each of seven anuran species found in the sampling region than TLTM. Furthermore, the relative read count estimated by metabarcoding was positively correlated with the density or relative density of individuals identified with the TLTM across waterbodies for every species. Species-specific characteristics of anurans, such as density, relative density, body mass, biomass and relative biomass, accounted for substantial variations in the read count across species and waterbodies, while physiochemical factors, including pH, temperature, water volume, vegetation and elevation, had little effect on the read count. Our results based on robust sampling suggest that metabarcoding enables more reliable and efficient measurements of anuran occurrence at a large scale during a short-term survey (within 15 days) than that obtained by the TLTM, and offers an alternative tool for quantifications of anuran abundance. Density or biomass is better and more reliable indicator of anuran abundance associated with read count than relative density or relative biomass.

Long-term effects of weather condition and air pollution on acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China: A nationalwide surveillance study in China.

BACKGROUND: Global climate change could have potential impact on enterovirus (EV)-induced infectious diseases. However, the environmental factors promoting acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) circulation remain inconclusive. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between the environment and AHC. METHODS: We retrieved the monthly counts and incidence of AHC, meteorological variables and air quality in mainland China between 2013 and 2018. Exposure risks were evaluated by multivariate distributed lag nonlinear models. RESULTS: A total of 219,599 AHC cases were reported in 31 provinces of China, predominantly in southern and central China, seasonally increased in summer. AHC incidence increased by 7% between 2013 and 2018, from 2.6873 to 2.7570 per 100,000 people. A moderate positive correlation was seen between AHC and monthly mean temperature, relative humidity (RH) and precipitation. Each unit increment was associated with a relative risk for AHC of 1.058 at 17°-32 °C at lag 0 months, 1.017 at 65-71% RH at lag 1.4 months, and 1.039 at 400-569 mm at lag 2.4 months. By contrast, a negative correlation was seen between monthly ambient NO2 and AHC. CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to higher mean temperature, RH and precipitation were associated with an increased risk of AHC. The general public, especially susceptible populations, should pay close attention to weather changes and take protective measures in advance to any AHC outbreak as the above situations occur.

More invaders do not result in heavier impacts: The effects of non-native bullfrogs on native anurans are mitigated by high densities of non-native crayfish.

With accelerating species introductions in an era of globalization, co-occurring alien species have become increasingly common. Understanding the combined ecological impacts of multiple invaders is not only crucial for wildlife managers attempting to ameliorate biodiversity loss, but also provides key insights into invasion success and species coexistence mechanisms in natural ecosystems. Compared with much attentions given to single-invader impacts, little is known about the impacts of multiple co-occurring invaders. The American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus = Rana catesbeiana) and the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) are two aquatic invasive species in many different areas of the globe. They coexist with native anurans in a variety of permanent lentic waters, which provide an ideal model system to explore the combined effects of multiple invaders from different trophic levels on native species. Based on a global diet analysis covering 34 native and invasive bullfrog populations, and data from 10-year field surveys across 157 water bodies in the Zhoushan Archipelago, China, we observed a reduced impact of bullfrogs on native anurans at high crayfish densities when the two invaders co-occurred. The global diet analysis showed that crayfish occurrence reduced the number of native anuran prey consumed by bullfrogs in both native and invasive populations. After accounting for pseudoreplication of different observations among water bodies, islands, and survey time, model averaging analyses based on GLMMs showed a negative relationship between bullfrog density and native anuran densities for field observations of invasive bullfrogs alone and co-invaded observations with low crayfish density. However, this negative relationship disappeared when the two invaders co-occurred with high crayfish density. Structural equation modelling (SEM) analyses further validated that the impacts of bullfrogs on native frogs were mitigated by the negative interactions between crayfish and bullfrogs. Our results provide novel evidence of a density-dependent antagonistic effect of two sympatric invaders from different trophic levels on native species. This study highlights the importance of considering complex interactions among co-invaders and native species when prioritizing conservation and management actions and will facilitate the development of a more precise framework to predict invasion impacts.

Pathogen richness and abundance predict patterns of adaptive major histocompatibility complex variation in insular amphibians.

The identification of the factors responsible for genetic variation and differentiation at adaptive loci can provide important insights into the evolutionary process and is crucial for the effective management of threatened species. We studied the impact of environmental viral richness and abundance on functional diversity and differentiation of the MHC class Ia locus in populations of the black-spotted pond frog (Pelophylax nigromaculatus), an IUCN-listed species, on 24 land-bridge islands of the Zhoushan Archipelago and three nearby mainland sites. We found a high proportion of private MHC alleles in mainland and insular populations, corresponding to 32 distinct functional supertypes, and strong positive selection on MHC antigen-binding sites in all populations. Viral pathogen diversity and abundance were reduced at island sites relative to the mainland, and islands housed distinctive viral communities. Standardized MHC diversity at island sites exceeded that found at neutral microsatellites, and the representation of key functional supertypes was positively correlated with the abundance of specific viruses in the environment (Frog virus 3 and Ambystoma tigrinum virus). These results indicate that pathogen-driven diversifying selection can play an important role in maintaining functionally important MHC variation following island isolation, highlighting the importance of considering functionally important genetic variation and host-pathogen associations in conservation planning and management.

Filling a gap in the distribution of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis: evidence in amphibians from northern China.

Chytridiomycosis caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has been recognized as a major driver of amphibian declines worldwide. Central and northern Asia remain as the greatest gap in the knowledge of the global distribution of Bd. In China, Bd has recently been recorded from south and central regions, but areas in the north remain poorly surveyed. In addition, a recent increase in amphibian farming and trade has put this region at high risk for Bd introduction. To investigate this, we collected a total of 1284 non-invasive skin swabs from wild and captive anurans and caudates, including free-ranging, farmed, ornamental, and museum-preserved amphibians. Bd was detected at low prevalence (1.1%, 12 of 1073) in live wild amphibians, representing the first report of Bd infecting anurans from remote areas of northwestern China. We were unable to obtain evidence of the historical presence of Bd from museum amphibians (n = 72). Alarmingly, Bd was not detected in wild amphibians from the provinces of northeastern China (>700 individuals tested), but was widely present (15.1%, 21 of 139) in amphibians traded in this region. We suggest that urgent implementation of measures is required to reduce the possibility of further spread or inadvertent introduction of Bd to China. It is unknown whether Bd in northern China belongs to endemic and/or exotic genotypes, and this should be the focus of future research.

Population size and time since island isolation determine genetic diversity loss in insular frog populations.

Understanding the factors that contribute to loss of genetic diversity in fragmented populations is crucial for conservation measurements. Land-bridge archipelagoes offer ideal model systems for identifying the long-term effects of these factors on genetic variations in wild populations. In this study, we used nine microsatellite markers to quantify genetic diversity and differentiation of 810 pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus) from 24 islands of the Zhoushan Archipelago and three sites on nearby mainland China and estimated the effects of the island area, population size, time since island isolation, distance to the mainland and distance to the nearest larger island on reduced genetic diversity of insular populations. The mainland populations displayed higher genetic diversity than insular populations. Genetic differentiations and no obvious gene flow were detected among the frog populations on the islands. Hierarchical partitioning analysis showed that only time since island isolation (square-root-transformed) and population size (log-transformed) significantly contributed to insular genetic diversity. These results suggest that decreased genetic diversity and genetic differentiations among insular populations may have been caused by random genetic drift following isolation by rising sea levels during the Holocene. The results provide strong evidence for a relationship between retained genetic diversity and population size and time since island isolation for pond frogs on the islands, consistent with the prediction of the neutral theory for finite populations. Our study highlights the importance of the size and estimated isolation time of populations in understanding the mechanisms of genetic diversity loss and differentiation in fragmented wild populations.

Variations in Genetic Diversity of Invasive Species Lithobates catesbeianus in China.

The introduction and subsequent range expansion of the American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) is part of a rising trend of troublesome biological invasions happening in China. This detrimental amphibious invasive species has strong adaptability. After its introduction and spread, it established its own ecological niche in many provinces of China, and its range has continued to expand to more areas. Previous studies recorded the introduction time of bullfrogs and calculated the changes in their genetic diversity in China using mitochondria, but the specific introduction route in China is still unknown. Expanding upon previous research, we employed whole-genome scans (utilizing 2b-RAD genomic sequencing) to examine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and microsatellites within Lithobates catesbeianus to screen the genomes of these invasive amphibian species from eight Chinese provinces and two U.S. states, including Kansas, where bullfrogs originate. A total of 1,336,475 single nucleotide polymorphic loci and 17 microsatellite loci were used to calculate the genetic diversity of bullfrogs and their migration pathways. Our results suggest that the population in Hunan was the first to be introduced and to spread, and there may have been multiple introductions of subpopulations. Additionally, the genetic diversity of both the SNP and microsatellite loci in the Chinese bullfrog population was lower than that of the US population due to bottleneck effects, but the bullfrogs can adapt and spread rapidly. This study will offer crucial insights for preventing and controlling future introductions into the natural habitats in China. Additionally, it will assist in devising more precise strategies to manage the existing populations and curtail their continued expansion, as well as aim to improve clarity and originality while mitigating plagiarism risk.

Pathogenic selection promotes adaptive immune variations against serious bottlenecks in early invasions of bullfrogs.

Adaptive genetic variations are key for understanding evolutionary processes influencing invasions. However, we have limited knowledge on how adaptive genetic diversity in invasive species responds to new pathogenic environments. Here, we compared variations in immune major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class-II ß gene and neutral loci in relation to pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) infection across invasive and native populations of American bullfrog between China and United States (US). Chinese invasive populations show a 60% reduction in neutral cytb variations relative to US native populations, and there were similar MHC variation and functional diversity between them. One MHC allele private to China was under recent positive selection and associated with decreased Bd infection, partly explaining the lower Bd prevalence for Chinese populations than for native US populations. These results suggest that pathogen-mediated selection favors adaptive MHC variations and functional diversity maintenance against serious bottlenecks during the early invasions (within 15 generations) of bullfrogs.

Epidemiological features and trends in the mortality rates of 10 notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in China from 2004 to 2020: Based on national surveillance.

Objectives: The aim of this study is to describe, visualize, and compare the trends and epidemiological features of the mortality rates of 10 notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in China from 2004 to 2020. Setting: Data were obtained from the database of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System (NIDSS) and reports released by the National and local Health Commissions from 2004 to 2020. Spearman correlations and Joinpoint regression models were used to quantify the temporal trends of RIDs by calculating annual percentage changes (APCs) in the rates of mortality. Results: The overall mortality rate of RIDs was stable across China from 2004 to 2020 (R = -0.38, P = 0.13), with an APC per year of -2.2% (95% CI: -4.6 to 0.3; P = 0.1000). However, the overall mortality rate of 10 RIDs in 2020 decreased by 31.80% (P = 0.006) compared to the previous 5 years before the COVID-19 pandemic. The highest mortality occurred in northwestern, western, and northern China. Tuberculosis was the leading cause of RID mortality, and mortality from tuberculosis was relatively stable throughout the 17 years (R = -0.36, P = 0.16), with an APC of -1.9% (95% CI -4.1 to 0.4, P = 0.1000). Seasonal influenza was the only disease for which mortality significantly increased (R = 0.73, P = 0.00089), with an APC of 29.70% (95% CI 16.60-44.40%; P = 0.0000). The highest yearly case fatality ratios (CFR) belong to avian influenza A H5N1 [687.5 per 1,000 (33/48)] and epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis [90.5748 per 1,000 (1,010/11,151)]. The age-specific CFR of 10 RIDs was highest among people over 85 years old [13.6551 per 1,000 (2,353/172,316)] and was lowest among children younger than 10 years, particularly in 5-year-old children [0.0552 per 1,000 (58/1,051,178)]. Conclusions: The mortality rates of 10 RIDs were relatively stable from 2004 to 2020 with significant differences among Chinese provinces and age groups. There was an increased mortality trend for seasonal influenza and concerted efforts are needed to reduce the mortality rate of seasonal influenza in the future.

Changing spatiotemporal patterns for hepatitis of unspecified aetiology in China, 2004-2021: a population-based surveillance study.

Objectives: As global efforts continue toward the target of eliminating viral hepatitis by 2030, the emergence of acute hepatitis of unspecified aetiology (HUA) remains a concern. This study assesses the overall trends and changes in spatiotemporal patterns in HUA in China from 2004 to 2021. Methods: We extracted the incidence and mortality rates of HUA from the Public Health Data Center, the official website of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, and the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System from 2004 to 2021. We used R software, ArcGIS, Moran's statistical analysis, and joinpoint regression to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and annual percentage change in incidence and mortality of the HUA across China. Results: From 2004 to 2021, a total of 707,559 cases of HUA have been diagnosed, including 636 deaths. The proportion of HUA in viral hepatitis gradually decreased from 7.55% in 2004 to 0.72% in 2021. The annual incidence of HUA decreased sharply from 6.6957 per 100,000 population in 2004 to 0.6302 per 100,000 population in 2021, with an average annual percentage change (APC) reduction of -13.1% (p < 0.001). The same result was seen in the mortality (APC, -22.14%, from 0.0089/100,000 in 2004 to 0.0002/100,000 in 2021, p < 0.001). All Chinese provinces saw a decline in incidence and mortality. Longitudinal analysis identified the age distribution in the incidence and mortality of HUA did not change and was highest in persons aged 15-59 years, accounting for 70% of all reported cases. During the COVID-19 pandemic, no significant increase was seen in pediatric HUA cases in China. Conclusion: China is experiencing an unprecedented decline in HUA, with the lowest incidence and mortality for 18 years. However, it is still important to sensitively monitor the overall trends of HUA and further improve HUA public health policy and practice in China.

Geographical patterns of Fejervarya limnocharis gut microbiota by latitude along mainland China's coastline.

The gut microbiota affects many aspects of host biology and plays key roles in the coevolutionary association with its host. Geographical gradients may play a certain role on gut microbiota variation in the natural environment. However, the distribution pattern of amphibian gut microbiota in the latitudinal gradient remains largely unexplored. Here, we sampled six natural populations of Fejervarya limnocharis along the eastern coastline of mainland China (spanning 20°-30° N = 1,300 km) using 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing to characterize the gut microbiota. First of all, a significant correlation between gut microbial diversity and latitude was observed in our research system. Second, we discovered that latitude influenced the composition of the gut microbiota of F. limnocharis. Finally, we detected that geographical distance could not determine gut microbiota composition in F. limnocharis. These results indicate that latitude can play an important role in shaping the gut microbial diversity of amphibian. Our study offers the first evidence that gut microbial diversity of amphibian presents a latitudinal pattern and highlights the need for increased numbers of individuals to be sampled during microbiome studies in wild populations along environmental gradients.

Reduced predator species richness drives the body gigantism of a frog species on the Zhoushan Archipelago in China.

1. Shifts in the body size of insular vertebrates have been an interesting theme in ecological and evolutionary studies. Four primary factors, including predation pressures, resource availability, inter-species competition and immigrant selection, have been proposed to explain the trend in insular body size. Life-history theory predicts that body size, average age, the proportion of old-aged members and the density of insular populations are negatively correlated with predator species richness, and that body size and population density are positively related to resource availability. The niche expansion hypothesis argues that a positive relationship is expected to exist between insular body size and prey size, which varies in response to extinction due to small or large competitors. The immigrant hypothesis predicts that insular body size is positively correlated with distance to the mainland. 2. We tested these hypotheses by using populations of rice frogs Rana limnocharis on 20 islands in the Zhoushan Archipelago and two sites of nearby mainland China. 3. The body size (snout-vent length) of rice frogs on half of the islands was larger before and after the variable of age was controlled for; rice frog density and prey availability was higher and prey size was larger on most of the islands as compared to the two mainland sites. On the islands, the body size and other features [e.g. average age, the proportion of old-aged frogs (ages 3 and 4) and density] of the rice frogs were negatively associated with predator species richness; female body size and other features were positively associated with prey availability. The inference of multivariate linear models based on corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AIC(c) ) showed that the relative importance of predator species richness on body size and each of the other features was larger than that of prey availability, prey size and distance to the mainland. In addition, the parameters for predator species richness were all negative. 4. The results provided strong support for the life-history theory of predation pressures, but weak evidence for the life-history theory of prey availability, the niche expansion or the immigrant hypothesis. The reduced predator species richness was a dominant factor contributing to the body gigantism of rice frogs on the islands.

Exposure to air pollution and scarlet fever resurgence in China: a six-year surveillance study.

Scarlet fever has resurged in China starting in 2011, and the environment is one of the potential reasons. Nationwide data on 655,039 scarlet fever cases and six air pollutants were retrieved. Exposure risks were evaluated by multivariate distributed lag nonlinear models and a meta-regression model. We show that the average incidence in 2011-2018 was twice that in 2004-2010 [RR = 2.30 (4.40 vs. 1.91), 95% CI: 2.29-2.31; p < 0.001] and generally lower in the summer and winter holiday (p = 0.005). A low to moderate correlation was seen between scarlet fever and monthly NO2 (r = 0.21) and O3 (r = 0.11). A 10 µg/m3 increase of NO2 and O3 was significantly associated with scarlet fever, with a cumulative RR of 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02-1.10) and 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01-1.07), respectively, at a lag of 0 to 15 months. In conclusion, long-term exposure to ambient NO2 and O3 may be associated with an increased risk of scarlet fever incidence, but direct causality is not established.

Propagule pressure and hunting pressure jointly determine genetic evolution in insular populations of a global frog invader.

Islands are often considered to be more susceptible to biological invasions and to suffer greater impacts from invaders than mainland areas, and this difference is generally attributed to differences in species introductions, ecological factors or human activities between islands and mainland areas. Genetic variation, as a good estimate of evolutionary potential, can influence the invasion process and impacts of alien species. However, few studies have compared the genetic diversity of alien species between islands and a corresponding mainland. Here, we examined the genetic variation and differentiation in feral populations (30 sampled individuals/population) of a globally invasive species (the American bullfrog, Lithobates catesbeianus) that was extensively farmed on 14 islands in the Zhoushan Archipelago of China and in three nearby regions on the mainland. We quantified the relative importance of propagule pressure and hunting pressures on the genetic variation of bullfrog populations and found that insular populations have greater genetic variation than their mainland counterparts. Although genetic differentiation between the populations was observed, no evidence of recent bottlenecks or population expansion in any of the tested population was found. Our results suggest that the propagule pressures of bullfrogs escaping from farms, multiple releases and hunting pressure influence the genetic variation among bullfrog populations. These results might have important implications for understanding the establishment and evolution of alien species on islands and for the management of invasive species.

Influence of Novel Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus Infection on Migrating Whooper Swans Fecal Microbiota.

The migration of wild birds plays an important role in the transmission and spread of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, posing a severe risk to animal and human health. Substantial evidence suggests that altered gut microbial community is implicated in the infection of respiratory influenza virus. However, the influence of H5N1 infection in gut microbiota of migratory birds remains unknown. In January 2015, a novel recombinant H5N1 virus emerged and killed about 100 migratory birds, mainly including whooper swans in Sanmenxia Reservoir Area of China. Here, we describe the first fecal microbiome diversity study of H5N1-infected migratory birds. By investigating the influence of H5N1 infection on fecal bacterial communities in infected and uninfected individuals, we found that H5N1 infection shaped the gut microbiota composition by a difference in the dominance of some genera, such as Aeromonas and Lactobacillus. We also found a decreased α diversity and increased ß diversity in infectious individuals. Our results highlight that increases in changes in pathogen-containing gut communities occur when individuals become infected with H5N1. Our study may provide the first evidence that there are statistical association among H5N1 presence and fecal microbiota compositional shifts, and properties of the fecal microbiota may serve as the risk of gut-linked disease in migrates with H5N1 and further aggravate the disease transmission.

The origin of invasion of an alien frog species in Tibet, China.

Identifying the origins of alien species has important implications for effectively controlling the spread of alien species. The black-spotted frog Pelophylax nigromaculatus, originally from East Asia, has become an alien species on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study, we collected 300 individuals of P. nigromaculatus from 13 native regions and 2 invasive regions (including Nyingchi and Lhasa) on the TP. To identify the source region of the TP introductions, we sequenced portions of the mitochondrial cyt b gene. We sequenced a ∼600-bp portion of the mitochondrial cyt b gene to identify 69 haplotypes (124 polymorphic sites) in all sampled populations. According to the network results, we suggest that the P. nigromaculatus found on the TP was most likely originated from Chongqing by human introduction. Furthermore, we found that the genetic diversity was significantly lower for invasive than for native sites due to founder effects. Our study provides genetic evidence that this alien species invaded the cold environment of high elevations and expanded the distribution of P. nigromaculatus in China.

Impacts of canine distemper virus infection on the giant panda population from the perspective of gut microbiota.

The recent increase in infectious disease outbreaks has been directly linked to the global loss of biodiversity and the decline of some endangered species populations. Between December 2014 and March 2015, five captive giant pandas died due to canine distemper virus (CDV) infection in China. CDV has taken a heavy toll on tigers and lions in recent years. Here, we describe the first gut microbiome diversity study of CDV-infected pandas. By investigating the influence of CDV infection on gut bacterial communities in infected and uninfected individuals and throughout the course of infection, we found that CDV infection distorted the gut microbiota composition by reducing the prevalence of the dominant genera, Escherichia and Clostridium, and increasing microbial diversity. Our results highlight that increases in intestinal inflammation and changes in the relative abundances of pathogen-containing gut communities occur when individuals become infected with CDV. These results may provide new insights into therapeutics that target the microbiota to attenuate the progression of CDV disease and to reduce the risk of gut-linked disease in individuals with CDV. In addition, our findings underscore the need for better information concerning the dynamics of infection and the damage caused by pathogens in panda populations.

Retrospective survey of museum specimens reveals historically widespread presence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in China.

Chytridiomycosis, caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has been implicated in amphibian population declines worldwide. However, no amphibian declines or extinctions associated with Bd have been reported in Asia. To investigate the history of this pathogen in China, we examined 1,007 museum-preserved amphibian specimens of 80 species collected between 1933 and 2009. Bd was detected in 60 individuals (6.0%), with the earliest case of Bd infection occurring in one specimen of Bufo gargarizans and two Fejervarya limnocharis, all collected in 1933 from Chongqing, southwest China. Although mainly detected in non-threatened native amphibians, Bd was also found in four endangered species. We report the first evidence of Bd for Taiwan and the first detection of Bd in the critically endangered Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus). Bd appears to have been present at a low rate of infection since at least the 1930s in China, and no significant differences in prevalence were detected between decades or provinces, suggesting that a historical steady endemic relationship between Bd and Chinese amphibians has occurred. Our results add new insights on the global emergence of Bd and suggest that this pathogen has been more widely distributed in the last century than previously believed.

Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change.

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes.

An exotic species is the favorite prey of a native enemy.

Although native enemies in an exotic species' new range are considered to affect its ability to invade, few studies have evaluated predation pressures from native enemies on exotic species in their new range. The exotic prey naiveté hypothesis (EPNH) states that exotic species may be at a disadvantage because of its naïveté towards native enemies and, therefore, may suffer higher predation pressures from the enemy than native prey species. Corollaries of this hypothesis include the native enemy preferring exotic species over native species and the diet of the enemy being influenced by the abundance of the exotic species. We comprehensively tested this hypothesis using introduced North American bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus, referred to as bullfrog), a native red-banded snake (Dinodon rufozonatum, the enemy) and four native anuran species in permanent still water bodies as a model system in Daishan, China. We investigated reciprocal recognition between snakes and anuran species (bullfrogs and three common native species) and the diet preference of the snakes for bullfrogs and the three species in laboratory experiments, and the diet preference and bullfrog density in the wild. Bullfrogs are naive to the snakes, but the native anurans are not. However, the snakes can identify bullfrogs as prey, and in fact, prefer bullfrogs over the native anurans in manipulative experiments with and without a control for body size and in the wild, indicating that bullfrogs are subjected to higher predation pressures from the snakes than the native species. The proportion of bullfrogs in the snakes' diet is positively correlated with the abundance of bullfrogs in the wild. Our results provide strong evidence for the EPNH. The results highlight the biological resistance of native enemies to naïve exotic species.