Outdoor Ultrafine Particulate Matter and Risk of Lung Cancer in Southern California.

Rationale: Particulate matter ⩽2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) is an established cause of lung cancer, but the association with ultrafine particulate matter (UFP; aerodynamic diameter < 0.1 µm) is unclear. Objectives: To investigate the association between UFP and lung cancer overall and by histologic subtype. Methods: The Los Angeles Ultrafines Study includes 45,012 participants aged ⩾50 years in southern California at enrollment (1995-1996) followed through 2017 for incident lung cancer (n = 1,770). We estimated historical residential ambient UFP number concentrations via land use regression and back extrapolation using PM2.5. In Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for smoking and other confounders, we estimated associations between 10-year lagged UFP (per 10,000 particles/cm3 and quartiles) and lung cancer overall and by major histologic subtype (adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, and small cell carcinoma). We also evaluated relationships by smoking status, birth cohort, and historical duration at the residence. Measurements and Main Results: UFP was modestly associated with lung cancer risk overall (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.99-1.08]). For adenocarcinoma, we observed a positive trend among men; risk was increased in the highest exposure quartile versus the lowest (HR, 1.39 [95% CI, 1.05-1.85]; P for trend = 0.01) and was also increased in continuous models (HR per 10,000 particles/cm3, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.00-1.18]), but no increased risk was apparent among women (P for interaction = 0.03). Adenocarcinoma risk was elevated among men born between 1925 and 1930 (HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.02-1.26] per 10,000) but not for other birth cohorts, and was suggestive for men with ⩾10 years of residential duration (HR, 1.11 [95% CI, 0.98-1.26]). We found no consistent associations for women or other histologic subtypes. Conclusions: UFP exposure was modestly associated with lung cancer overall, with stronger associations observed for adenocarcinoma of the lung.

Prediagnostic serum concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances and risk of papillary thyroid cancer in the Finnish Maternity Cohort.

Human exposure to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) occurs globally through contaminated food, dust, and drinking water. Studies of PFAS and thyroid cancer have been limited. We conducted a nested case-control study of prediagnostic serum levels of 19 PFAS and papillary thyroid cancer (400 cases, 400 controls) in the Finnish Maternity Cohort (pregnancies 1986-2010; follow-up through 2016), individually matched on sample year and age. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for log2 transformed and categorical exposures, overall and stratified by calendar period, birth cohort, and median age at diagnosis. We adjusted for other PFAS with Spearman correlation rho = 0.3-0.6. Seven PFAS, including perfluoroctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), N-ethyl-perfluorooctane sulfonamidoacetic acid (EtFOSAA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), and perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS) were detected in >50% of women. These PFAS were not associated with risk of thyroid cancer, except for PFHxS, which was inversely associated (OR log2 = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.70-0.97). We observed suggestive but imprecise increased risks associated with PFOA, PFOS, and EtFOSAA for those diagnosed at ages <40 years, whereas associations were null or inverse among those diagnosed at 40+ years (P-interaction: .02, .08, .13, respectively). There was little evidence of other interactions. These results show no clear association between PFAS and papillary thyroid cancer risk. Future work would benefit from evaluation of these relationships among those with higher exposure levels and during periods of early development when the thyroid gland may be more susceptible to environmental harms.

The protective effect of dietary folate intake on gastric cancer is modified by alcohol consumption: A pooled analysis of the StoP Consortium.

Dietary folate intake has been identified as a potentially modifiable factor of gastric cancer (GC) risk, although the evidence is still inconsistent. We evaluate the association between dietary folate intake and the risk of GC as well as the potential modification effect of alcohol consumption. We pooled data for 2829 histologically confirmed GC cases and 8141 controls from 11 case-control studies from the international Stomach Cancer Pooling Consortium. Dietary folate intake was estimated using food frequency questionnaires. We used linear mixed models with random intercepts for each study to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Higher folate intake was associated with a lower risk of GC, although this association was not observed among participants who consumed >2.0 alcoholic drinks/day. The OR for the highest quartile of folate intake, compared with the lowest quartile, was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.67-0.90, P-trend = 0.0002). The OR per each quartile increment was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.87-0.96) and, per every 100 µg/day of folate intake, was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.84-0.95). There was a significant interaction between folate intake and alcohol consumption (P-interaction = 0.02). The lower risk of GC associated with higher folate intake was not observed in participants who consumed >2.0 drinks per day, ORQ4v Q1 = 1.15 (95% CI, 0.85-1.56), and the OR100 µg/day = 1.02 (95% CI, 0.92-1.15). Our study supports a beneficial effect of folate intake on GC risk, although the consumption of >2.0 alcoholic drinks/day counteracts this beneficial effect.

Reproductive factors, hormonal interventions, and gastric cancer risk in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer incidence is higher in men, and a protective hormone-related effect in women is postulated. We aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium. METHODS: A total of 2,084 cases and 7,102 controls from 11 studies in seven countries were included. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) assessing associations of key reproductive factors and menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) with gastric cancer were estimated by pooling study-specific ORs using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: A duration of fertility of ≥ 40 years (vs. < 20), was associated with a 25% lower risk of gastric cancer (OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.58-0.96). Compared with never use, ever, 5-9 years and ≥ 10 years use of MHT in postmenopausal women, showed ORs of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.58-0.92), 0.53 (95% CI: 0.34-0.84) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.50-1.00), respectively. The associations were generally similar for anatomical and histologic subtypes. CONCLUSION: Our results support the hypothesis that reproductive factors and MHT use may lower the risk of gastric cancer in women, regardless of anatomical or histologic subtypes. Given the variation in hormones over the lifespan, studies should address their effects in premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Furthermore, mechanistic studies may inform potential biological processes.

Modeling variation in mixture effects over space with a Bayesian spatially varying mixture model.

Mixture analysis is an emerging statistical tool in epidemiological research that seeks to estimate the health effects associated with mixtures of several exposures. This approach acknowledges that individuals experience many simultaneous exposures and it can estimate the relative importance of components in the mixture. Health effects due to mixtures may vary over space driven by to political, demographic, environmental, or other differences. In such cases, estimating a global mixture effect without accounting for spatial variation would induce bias in effect estimates and potentially lower statistical power. To date, no methods have been developed to estimate spatially varying chemical mixture effects. We developed a Bayesian spatially varying mixture model that estimates spatially varying mixture effects and the importance weights of components in the mixture, while adjusting for covariates. We demonstrate the efficacy of the model through a simulation study that varies the number of mixtures (one and two) and spatial pattern (global, one-dimensional, radial) and magnitude of mixture effects, showing that the model is able to accurately reproduce the spatial pattern of mixture effects across a diverse set of scenarios. Finally, we apply our model to a multi-center case-control study of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in Detroit, Iowa, Los Angeles, and Seattle. We identify significant spatially varying positive and inverse associations with NHL for two mixtures of pesticides in Iowa and do not find strong spatial effects at the other three centers. In conclusion, the Bayesian spatially varying mixture model represents a novel method for modeling spatial variation in mixture effects.

Association of common maternal infections with birth outcomes: a multinational cohort study.

PURPOSE: It is unclear whether common maternal infections during pregnancy are risk factors for adverse birth outcomes. We assessed the association between self-reported infections during pregnancy with preterm birth and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) in an international cohort consortium. METHODS: Data on 120,507 pregnant women were obtained from six population-based birth cohorts in Australia, Denmark, Israel, Norway, the UK and the USA. Self-reported common infections during pregnancy included influenza-like illness, common cold, any respiratory tract infection, vaginal thrush, vaginal infections, cystitis, urinary tract infection, and the symptoms fever and diarrhoea. Birth outcomes included preterm birth, low birth weight and SGA. Associations between maternal infections and birth outcomes were first assessed using Poisson regression in each cohort and then pooled using random-effect meta-analysis. Risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated, adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Vaginal infections (pooled RR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02-1.20) and urinary tract infections (pooled RR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.09-1.26) during pregnancy were associated with higher risk of preterm birth. Similar associations with low birth weight were also observed for these two infections. Fever during pregnancy was associated with higher risk of SGA (pooled RR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.02-1.12). No other significant associations were observed between maternal infections/symptoms and birth outcomes. CONCLUSION: Vaginal infections and urinary infections during pregnancy were associated with a small increased risk of preterm birth and low birth weight, whereas fever was associated with SGA. These findings require confirmation in future studies with laboratory-confirmed infection diagnosis.

Dietary intake of vitamin C and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest that dietary vitamin C is inversely associated with gastric cancer (GC), but most of them did not consider intake of fruit and vegetables. Thus, we aimed to evaluate this association within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project, a consortium of epidemiological studies on GC. METHODS: Fourteen case-control studies were included in the analysis (5362 cases, 11,497 controls). We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between dietary intake of vitamin C and GC, adjusted for relevant confounders and for intake of fruit and vegetables. The dose-response relationship was evaluated using mixed-effects logistic models with second-order fractional polynomials. RESULTS: Individuals in the highest quartile of dietary vitamin C intake had reduced odds of GC compared with those in the lowest quartile (OR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.72). Additional adjustment for fruit and vegetables intake led to an OR of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.98). A significant inverse association was observed for noncardia GC, as well as for both intestinal and diffuse types of the disease. The results of the dose-response analysis showed decreasing ORs of GC up to 150-200 mg/day of vitamin C (OR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.41, 0.71), whereas ORs for higher intakes were close to 1.0. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of our pooled study suggest that vitamin C is inversely associated with GC, with a potentially beneficial effect also for intakes above the currently recommended daily intake (90 mg for men and 75 mg for women).

The association between dietary fiber intake and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis of 11 case-control studies.

PURPOSE: Gastric cancer (GC) is among the leading causes of cancer mortality worldwide. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between dietary fiber intake and GC. METHODS: We pooled data from 11 population or hospital-based case-control studies included in the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project, for a total of 4865 histologically confirmed cases and 10,626 controls. Intake of dietary fibers and other dietary factors was collected using food frequency questionnaires. We calculated the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the association between dietary fiber intake and GC by using a multivariable logistic regression model adjusted for study site, sex, age, caloric intake, smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, and socioeconomic status. We conducted stratified analyses by these factors, as well as GC anatomical site and histological type. RESULTS: The OR of GC for an increase of one quartile of fiber intake was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.97), that for the highest compared to the lowest quartile of dietary fiber intake was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.59, 0.88). Results were similar irrespective of anatomical site and histological type. CONCLUSION: Our analysis supports the hypothesis that dietary fiber intake may exert a protective effect on GC.

Organochlorine pesticides and risk of papillary thyroid cancer in U.S. military personnel: a nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The effects of organochlorine pesticide (OCP) exposure on the development of human papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) are not well understood. A nested case-control study was conducted with data from the U.S. Department of Defense Serum Repository (DoDSR) cohort between 2000 and 2013 to assess associations of individual OCPs serum concentrations with PTC risk. METHODS: This study included 742 histologically confirmed PTC cases (341 females, 401 males) and 742 individually-matched controls with pre-diagnostic serum samples selected from the DoDSR. Associations between categories of lipid-corrected serum concentrations of seven OCPs and PTC risk were evaluated for classical PTC and follicular PTC using conditional logistic regression, adjusted for body mass index category and military branch to compute odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Effect modification by sex, birth cohort, and race was examined. RESULTS: There was no evidence of associations between most of the OCPs and PTC, overall or stratified by histological subtype. Overall, there was no evidence of an association between hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and PTC, but stratified by histological subtype HCB was associated with significantly increased risk of classical PTC (third tertile above the limit of detection (LOD) vs.

Modeling historic environmental pollutant exposures and non-Hodgkin lymphoma risk.

Environmental exposures to chemicals are suspected risk factors for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), but few studies have assessed historic environmental risk factors. In this study, we estimated the associations between NHL and 1) historic environmental pollutant emissions from the Risk Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI) model, which uses a database from the Environmental Protection Agency of toxic release emissions to air, water, and land, and 2) chemical mixtures measured in house dust (groups of PCBs, PAHs, and two mixtures of pesticides) for study participants enrolled in the NCI-SEER population-based case-control study (1998-2000) at four SEER centers - Detroit, Iowa, Los Angeles County, and Seattle. We assigned 11 years of annual temporally-varying historic environmental exposure scores by intersecting residential locations from participants' residential histories with a fine grid from the RSEI model and by performing inverse distance weighting between facilities releasing specific carcinogenic chemicals and residential locations for spatially-precise exposure assignments. We used Bayesian index low-rank kriging multiple membership models to identify important lag times for RSEI scores, cumulative effects of RSEI scores, and specific carcinogenic chemical releases into the environment. We found a significant positive association between RSEI scores and NHL at the maximum time lag of 11 years (OR = 1.17, 95% CI (1.06, 1.32)) and a significant cumulative RSEI score effect (OR = 1.30, 95% CI (1.02, 1.84)) for long-term residents in Detroit, where benzene and trichloroethylene were the most important chemicals driving this association. Additionally, we identified significant inverse associations for two study centers and time lags that did not persist in cumulative exposure models. Large weights for dichloromethane and pentachlorophenol in models of cumulative exposure also support evidence for their association with NHL risk. These results underscore the importance of considering historic and cumulative environmental exposures and using residential histories for diseases with long latency periods such as NHL.

Modeling historic neighborhood deprivation and non-Hodgkin lymphoma risk.

Many studies have identified associations between neighborhood deprivation and disease, emphasizing the importance of social determinants of health. However, when studying diseases with long latency periods such as cancers, considering the timing of exposures for deprivation becomes more important. In this study, we estimated the associations between neighborhood deprivation indices at several time points and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in a population-based case-control study at four study centers - Detroit, Iowa, Los Angeles County, and Seattle (1998-2000). We used the Bayesian index regression model and residential histories to estimate neighborhood deprivation index effects in crude models and adjusted for four chemical mixtures measured in house dust and individual-level covariates. We found that neighborhood deprivation in 1980, approximately twenty years before study entry, provided better model fit than did neighborhood deprivation at 1990 and 2000. We identified several statistically significant associations between neighborhood deprivation in 1980 and NHL risk in Iowa and among long-term (20+ years) residents of Detroit. The most important variables in these indices were median gross rent as a percentage of household income in Iowa and percent of single-parent households with at least one child and median household income in Detroit. Associations remained statistically significant after adjustment for individual-level covariates and chemical mixtures, providing evidence for historic neighborhood deprivation as a risk factor for NHL and motivating future research to uncover the specific carcinogens driving these associations in deprived areas.

Residential proximity to dioxin emissions and risk of breast cancer in the sister study cohort.

Some dioxins are carcinogenic, but few studies have investigated the relationship between ambient polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) and risk of breast cancer. We evaluated associations between proximity-based residential exposure to industrial emissions of PCDD/F and breast cancer risk in a large U.S. cohort. Sister Study participants at enrollment (2003-2009) were followed for incident breast cancer through September 2018. After restricting to participants with ≥10 years of residential history prior to enrollment (n = 35,908), we generated 10-year distance- and toxic equivalency quotient (TEQ)-weighted average emissions indices (AEI [g TEQ/km2]) within 3, 5, or 10 km of participants' residences, overall and by facility type. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between AEI quartiles (vs. zero AEI) and risk of breast cancer [invasive or ductal carcinoma in situ]. There were 2670 incident breast cancer cases over 11 years (median) of follow-up. Breast cancer risk was increased for those in the highest quartile [Q] of AEI exposure within 3 km (HRQ4:1.18, 95% CI: 0.99,1.40, Ptrend = 0.03). The HR was higher for the 10-year AEI at 3 km from municipal solid waste facilities (HR ≥ median.vs.0:1.50, 95% CI: 0.98, 2.29; Ptrend = 0.07). Risk was higher among ever smokers (vs. never smokers) in the top quartile of the 3 km AEI (HRQ4:1.41, 95% CI:1.12,1.77, Ptrend = 0.003; Pinteraction = 0.03) and higher risk for ER negative tumors was suggested (HRQ4:1.47, 95% CI: 0.95, 2.28, Ptrend = 0.07, Pheterogeneity = 0.17). Our findings suggest that residential exposure to PCDD/F emissions may confer an increased risk of breast cancer.

Elevated 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) herbicide concentrations in the household dust of farmers with recent occupational use.

Pesticide dust concentrations in homes have been previously associated with occupational and home/garden use of pesticides, hygiene practices, and other factors. This study evaluated the relationship between self-reported use of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) and house dust concentrations and these factors in the Biomarkers of Exposure and Effect in Agriculture (BEEA) Study, a molecular epidemiologic study of farmers in Iowa and North Carolina. The vacuum dust from the homes of 35 BEEA participants was analyzed for the presence of 2,4-D. Participants provided detailed information on occupational and home/garden pesticide use during the past 12 months and reported household characteristics via questionnaires. Linear regression models were used to examine the association between 2,4-D concentrations and four exposure metrics for occupational use in the last 12 months (yes/no, days since last use, days of use, intensity-weighted days of use), home/garden use (yes/no), as well as several household characteristics. 2,4-D was detected in all homes and was used occupationally by 54% of the participants. In a multi-variable model, compared to homes with no occupational or home/garden 2,4-D use reported in the past 12 months, concentrations were 1.6 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.5, 4.9) times higher in homes with low occupational 2,4-D use (intensity-weighted days < median) and 3.1 (95% CI: 1.0, 9.8) times higher in homes of participants with high use (≥median intensity-weighted days) (p-trend = 0.06). Similar patterns were observed with other occupational metrics. Additionally, 2,4-D dust concentrations were non-significantly elevated (relative difference (RD) = 1.8, 95% CI: 0.5, 6.2) in homes with home/garden use and were significantly lower in homes that did not have carpets (RD = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.98). These analyses suggest that elevated 2,4-D dust concentrations were associated with several metrics of recent occupational use and may be influenced by home/garden use and household characteristics.

Tea consumption and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis from the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from epidemiological studies on the role of tea drinking in gastric cancer risk remains inconsistent. We aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between tea consumption and gastric cancer in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium. METHODS: A total of 9438 cases and 20,451 controls from 22 studies worldwide were included. Odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of gastric cancer for regular versus non-regular tea drinkers were estimated by one and two-stage modelling analyses, including terms for sex, age and the main recognised risk factors for gastric cancer. RESULTS: Compared to non-regular drinkers, the estimated adjusted pooled OR for regular tea drinkers was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85-0.97). When the amount of tea consumed was considered, the OR for consumption of 1-2 cups/day was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.94-1.09) and for >3 cups/day was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.80-1.03). Stronger inverse associations emerged among regular drinkers in China and Japan (OR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.49-0.91) where green tea is consumed, in subjects with H. pylori infection (OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.58-0.80), and for gastric cardia cancer (OR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.49-0.84). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate a weak inverse association between tea consumption and gastric cancer.

Allium vegetables intake and the risk of gastric cancer in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project.

BACKGROUND: The role of allium vegetables on gastric cancer (GC) risk remains unclear. METHODS: We evaluated whether higher intakes of allium vegetables reduce GC risk using individual participant data from 17 studies participating in the "Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project", including 6097 GC cases and 13,017 controls. Study-specific odds ratios (ORs) were pooled using a two-stage modelling approach. RESULTS: Total allium vegetables intake was inversely associated with GC risk. The pooled OR for the highest versus the lowest study-specific tertile of consumption was 0.71 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.56-0.90), with substantial heterogeneity across studies (I2 > 50%). Pooled ORs for high versus low consumption were 0.69 (95% CI, 0.55-0.86) for onions and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.75-0.93) for garlic. The inverse association with allium vegetables was evident in Asian (OR 0.50, 95% CI, 0.29-0.86) but not European (OR 0.96, 95% CI, 0.81-1.13) and American (OR 0.66, 95% CI, 0.39-1.11) studies. Results were consistent across all other strata. CONCLUSIONS: In a worldwide consortium of epidemiological studies, we found an inverse association between allium vegetables and GC, with a stronger association seen in Asian studies. The heterogeneity of results across geographic regions and possible residual confounding suggest caution in results interpretation.

Salt intake and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project.

PURPOSE: Previous studies show that consuming foods preserved by salting increases the risk of gastric cancer, while results on the association between total salt or added salt and gastric cancer are less consistent and vary with the exposure considered. This study aimed to quantify the association between dietary salt exposure and gastric cancer, using an individual participant data meta-analysis of studies participating in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project. METHODS: Data from 25 studies (10,283 cases and 24,643 controls) from the StoP Project with information on salt taste preference (tasteless, normal, salty), use of table salt (never, sometimes, always), total sodium intake (tertiles of grams/day), and high-salt and salt-preserved foods intake (tertiles of grams/day) were used. A two-stage approach based on random-effects models was used to pool study-specific adjusted (sex, age, and gastric cancer risk factors) odds ratios (aORs), and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). RESULTS: Gastric cancer risk was higher for salty taste preference (aOR 1.59, 95% CI 1.25-2.03), always using table salt (aOR 1.33, 95% CI 1.16-1.54), and for the highest tertile of high-salt and salt-preserved foods intake (aOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01-1.51) vs. the lowest tertile. No significant association was observed for the highest vs. the lowest tertile of total sodium intake (aOR 1.08, 95% CI 0.82-1.43). The results obtained were consistent across anatomic sites, strata of Helicobacter pylori infection, and sociodemographic, lifestyle and study characteristics. CONCLUSION: Salty taste preference, always using table salt, and a greater high-salt and salt-preserved foods intake increased the risk of gastric cancer, though the association was less robust with total sodium intake.

Estimating mixture effects and cumulative spatial risk over time simultaneously using a Bayesian index low-rank kriging multiple membership model.

The exposome is an ideal in public health research that posits that individuals experience risk for adverse health outcomes from a wide variety of sources over their lifecourse. There have been increases in data collection in the various components of the exposome, but novel statistical methods are needed that capture multiple dimensions of risk at once. We introduce a Bayesian index low-rank kriging (LRK) multiple membership model (MMM) to simultaneously estimate the health effects of one or more groups of exposures, the relative importance of exposure components, and cumulative spatial risk over time using residential histories. The model employs an MMM to consider all residential locations for subjects weighted by duration and LRK to increase computational efficiency. We demonstrate the performance of the Bayesian index LRK-MMM through a simulation study, showing that the model accurately and consistently estimates the health effects of one or several group indices and has high power to identify a region of elevated spatial risk due to unmeasured environmental exposures. Finally, we apply our model to data from a multicenter case-control study of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), finding a significant positive association between one index of pesticides and risk for NHL in Iowa. Additionally, we find an area of significantly elevated spatial risk for NHL in Los Angeles. In conclusion, our Bayesian index LRK-MMM represents a step forward toward bringing the ideals of the exposome into practice for environmental risk analyzes.

Estimating cumulative spatial risk over time with low-rank kriging multiple membership models.

Many health outcomes result from accumulated exposures to one or more environmental factors. Accordingly, spatial risk studies have begun to consider multiple residential locations of participants, acknowledging that participants move and thus are exposed to environmental factors in several places. However, novel methods are needed to estimate cumulative spatial risk for disease while accounting for other risk factors. To this end, we propose a Bayesian model (LRK-MMM) that embeds a multiple membership model (MMM) into a low-rank kriging (LRK) model in order to estimate cumulative spatial risk at the point level while allowing for multiple residential locations per subject. The LRK approach offers a more computationally efficient means to analyze spatial risk in case-control study data at the point level compared with a Bayesian generalized additive model, and as increased precision in spatial risk estimates by analyzing point locations instead of administrative areas. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate the efficacy of the model and its improvement upon an existing multiple membership model that uses area-level spatial random effects to estimate risk. The results show that our proposed method provides greater spatial sensitivity (improvements ranging from 0.12 to 0.54) and power (improvements ranging from 0.02 to 0.94) to detect regions of elevated risk for disease across a range of exposure scenarios. Finally, we apply our model to case-control data from the New England bladder cancer study to estimate cumulative spatial risk while adjusting for many covariates.

Herbicide use in farming and other jobs in relation to non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) risk.

OBJECTIVES: Given mixed evidence for carcinogenicity of current-use herbicides, we studied the relationship between occupational herbicide use and risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) in a large, pooled study. METHODS: We pooled data from 10 case-control studies participating in the International Lymphoma Epidemiology Consortium, including 9229 cases and 9626 controls from North America, the European Union and Australia. Herbicide use was coded from self-report or by expert assessment in the individual studies, for herbicide groups (eg, phenoxy herbicides) and active ingredients (eg, 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D), glyphosate). The association between each herbicide and NHL risk was estimated using logistic regression to produce ORs and 95% CIs, with adjustment for sociodemographic factors, farming and other pesticides. RESULTS: We found no substantial association of all NHL risk with ever-use of any herbicide (OR=1.10, 95% CI: 0.94 to 1.29), nor with herbicide groups or active ingredients. Elevations in risk were observed for NHL subtypes with longer duration of phenoxy herbicide use, such as for any phenoxy herbicide with multiple myeloma (>25.5 years, OR=1.78, 95% CI: 0.74 to 4.27), 2,4-D with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (>25.5 years, OR=1.47, 95% CI: 0.67 to 3.21) and other (non-2,4-D) phenoxy herbicides with T-cell lymphoma (>6 years, lagged 10 years, OR=3.24, 95% CI: 1.03 to 10.2). An association between glyphosate and follicular lymphoma (lagged 10 years: OR=1.48, 95% CI: 0.98 to 2.25) was fairly consistent across analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the herbicides examined were not associated with NHL risk. However, associations of phenoxy herbicides and glyphosate with particular NHL subtypes underscore the importance of estimating subtype-specific risks.

Emissions of dioxins and dioxin-like compounds and incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in the United States.

Ambient dioxin exposure from industrial sources, excluding exposures from occupations and accidental releases/contamination, may be associated with risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The objective of this study was to examine the association between county-level ambient dioxin air emissions from industrial sources and HCC risk in the US. We obtained information on 90,359 incident HCC cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2016 from population-based cancer registries across the US in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Dioxin emissions from 1987 to 2007 from a nationwide spatial database of historical dioxin-emitting facilities were linked to the SEER county of residence at diagnosis using a geographic information system (GIS). Poisson regression with robust variance estimation was used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between county-level dioxin emissions and HCC rates adjusting for individual-level age at diagnosis, sex, race/ethnicity, year of diagnosis, SEER registry, and county-level information on health conditions, lifestyle factors, and socioeconomic status. There was no association between dioxin emissions based on the number of dioxin-emitting facilities within a county or average annual emissions within a county and HCC risk. In analyses by facility type, there were positive associations between county-level dioxin emissions from coal-fired power plants (adjusted IRR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.17), but not with the number of these facilities. Similarly, positive associations for industrial boilers and sewage sludge incinerators were evident, but not consistent across both exposure metrics. Future research should incorporate individual-level data to further explore the findings suggested by these ecologic analyses.