Long-term colchicine for the prevention of vascular recurrent events in non-cardioembolic stroke (CONVINCE): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Anti-inflammatory therapy with long-term colchicine prevented vascular recurrence in coronary disease. Unlike coronary disease, which is typically caused by atherosclerosis, ischaemic stroke is caused by diverse mechanisms including atherosclerosis and small vessel disease or is frequently due to an unknown cause. We aimed to investigate the hypothesis that long-term colchicine would reduce recurrent events after ischaemic stroke. METHODS: We did a randomised, parallel-group, open-label, blinded endpoint assessed trial comparing long-term colchicine (0·5 mg orally per day) plus guideline-based usual care with usual care only. Hospital-based patients with non-severe, non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or high-risk transient ischaemic attack were eligible. The primary endpoint was a composite of first fatal or non-fatal recurrent ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, or hospitalisation (defined as an admission to an inpatient unit or a visit to an emergency department that resulted in at least a 24 h stay [or a change in calendar date if the hospital admission or discharge times were not available]) for unstable angina. The p value for significance was 0·048 to adjust for two prespecified interim analyses conducted by the data monitoring committee, for which the steering committee and trial investigators remained blinded. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02898610) and is completed. FINDINGS: 3154 patients were randomly assigned between Dec 19, 2016, and Nov 21, 2022, with the last follow-up on Jan 31, 2024. The trial finished before the anticipated number of outcomes was accrued (367 outcomes planned) due to budget constraints attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ten patients withdrew consent for analysis of their data, leaving 3144 patients in the intention-to-treat analysis: 1569 (colchicine and usual care) and 1575 (usual care alone). A primary endpoint occurred in 338 patients, 153 (9·8%) of 1569 patients allocated to colchicine and usual care and 185 (11·7%) of 1575 patients allocated to usual care alone (incidence rates 3·32 vs 3·92 per 100 person-years, hazard ratio 0·84; 95% CI 0·68-1·05, p=0·12). Although no between-group difference in C-reactive protein (CRP) was observed at baseline, patients treated with colchicine had lower CRP at 28 days and at 1, 2, and 3 years (p<0·05 for all timepoints). The rates of serious adverse events were similar in both groups. INTERPRETATION: Although no statistically significant benefit was observed on the primary intention-to-treat analysis, the findings provide new evidence supporting the rationale for anti-inflammatory therapy in further randomised trials. FUNDING: Health Research Board Ireland, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation), and Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Vlaanderen (Research Foundation Flanders), Belgium.

Guidelines for Neuroprognostication in Critically Ill Adults with Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this document is to provide recommendations on the formal reliability of major clinical predictors often associated with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) neuroprognostication. METHODS: A narrative systematic review was completed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology and the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting questions. Predictors, which included both individual clinical variables and prediction models, were selected based on clinical relevance and attention in the literature. Following construction of the evidence profile and summary of findings, recommendations were based on Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria. Good practice statements addressed essential principles of neuroprognostication that could not be framed in the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting format. RESULTS: Six candidate clinical variables and two clinical grading scales (the original ICH score and maximally treated ICH score) were selected for recommendation creation. A total of 347 articles out of 10,751 articles screened met our eligibility criteria. Consensus statements of good practice included deferring neuroprognostication-aside from the most clinically devastated patients-for at least the first 48-72 h of intensive care unit admission; understanding what outcomes would have been most valued by the patient; and counseling of patients and surrogates whose ultimate neurological recovery may occur over a variable period of time. Although many clinical variables and grading scales are associated with ICH poor outcome, no clinical variable alone or sole clinical grading scale was suggested by the panel as currently being reliable by itself for use in counseling patients with ICH and their surrogates, regarding functional outcome at 3 months and beyond or 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines provide recommendations on the formal reliability of predictors of poor outcome in the context of counseling patients with ICH and surrogates and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication. Clinicians formulating their judgments of prognosis for patients with ICH should avoid anchoring bias based solely on any one clinical variable or published clinical grading scale.

Guidelines for neuroprognostication in adults with traumatic spinal cord injury.

BACKGROUND: Traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI) impacts patients and their families acutely and often for the long term. The ability of clinicians to share prognostic information about mortality and functional outcomes allows patients and their surrogates to engage in decision-making and plan for the future. These guidelines provide recommendations on the reliability of acute-phase clinical predictors to inform neuroprognostication and guide clinicians in counseling adult patients with tSCI or their surrogates. METHODS: A narrative systematic review was completed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology. Candidate predictors, including clinical variables and prediction models, were selected based on clinical relevance and presence of an appropriate body of evidence. The Population/Intervention/Comparator/Outcome/Timing/Setting question was framed as "When counseling patients or surrogates of critically ill patients with traumatic spinal cord injury, should < predictor, with time of assessment if appropriate > be considered a reliable predictor of < outcome, with time frame of assessment >?" Additional full-text screening criteria were used to exclude small and lower quality studies. Following construction of an evidence profile and summary of findings, recommendations were based on four Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria: quality of evidence, balance of desirable and undesirable consequences, values and preferences, and resource use. Good practice recommendations addressed essential principles of neuroprognostication that could not be framed in the Population/Intervention/Comparator/Outcome/Timing/Setting format. Throughout the guideline development process, an individual living with tSCI provided perspective on patient-centered priorities. RESULTS: Six candidate clinical variables and one prediction model were selected. Out of 11,132 articles screened, 369 met inclusion criteria for full-text review and 35 articles met eligibility criteria to guide recommendations. We recommend pathologic findings on magnetic resonance imaging, neurological level of injury, and severity of injury as moderately reliable predictors of American Spinal Cord Injury Impairment Scale improvement and the Dutch Clinical Prediction Rule as a moderately reliable prediction model of independent ambulation at 1 year after injury. No other reliable or moderately reliable predictors of mortality or functional outcome were identified. Good practice recommendations include considering the complete clinical condition as opposed to a single variable and communicating the challenges of likely functional deficits as well as potential for improvement and for long-term quality of life with SCI-related deficits to patients and surrogates. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines provide recommendations about the reliability of acute-phase predictors of mortality, functional outcome, American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale grade conversion, and recovery of independent ambulation for consideration when counseling patients with tSCI or their surrogates and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication in this context.

Guidelines for Neuroprognostication in Critically Ill Adults with Moderate-Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

BACKGROUND: Moderate-severe traumatic brain injury (msTBI) carries high morbidity and mortality worldwide. Accurate neuroprognostication is essential in guiding clinical decisions, including patient triage and transition to comfort measures. Here we provide recommendations regarding the reliability of major clinical predictors and prediction models commonly used in msTBI neuroprognostication, guiding clinicians in counseling surrogate decision-makers. METHODS: Using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology, we conducted a systematic narrative review of the most clinically relevant predictors and prediction models cited in the literature. The review involved framing specific population/intervention/comparator/outcome/timing/setting (PICOTS) questions and employing stringent full-text screening criteria to examine the literature, focusing on four GRADE criteria: quality of evidence, desirability of outcomes, values and preferences, and resource use. Moreover, good practice recommendations addressing the key principles of neuroprognostication were drafted. RESULTS: After screening 8125 articles, 41 met our eligibility criteria. Ten clinical variables and nine grading scales were selected. Many articles varied in defining "poor" functional outcomes. For consistency, we treated "poor" as "unfavorable". Although many clinical variables are associated with poor outcome in msTBI, only the presence of bilateral pupillary nonreactivity on admission, conditional on accurate assessment without confounding from medications or injuries, was deemed moderately reliable for counseling surrogates regarding 6-month functional outcomes or in-hospital mortality. In terms of prediction models, the Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH)-basic, CRASH-CT (CRASH-basic extended by computed tomography features), International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT)-core, IMPACT-extended, and IMPACT-lab models were recommended as moderately reliable in predicting 14-day to 6-month mortality and functional outcomes at 6 months and beyond. When using "moderately reliable" predictors or prediction models, the clinician must acknowledge "substantial" uncertainty in the prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines provide recommendations to clinicians on the formal reliability of individual predictors and prediction models of poor outcome when counseling surrogates of patients with msTBI and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication.

Calibrating machine learning approaches for probability estimation: A comprehensive comparison.

Statistical prediction models have gained popularity in applied research. One challenge is the transfer of the prediction model to a different population which may be structurally different from the model for which it has been developed. An adaptation to the new population can be achieved by calibrating the model to the characteristics of the target population, for which numerous calibration techniques exist. In view of this diversity, we performed a systematic evaluation of various popular calibration approaches used by the statistical and the machine learning communities for estimating two-class probabilities. In this work, we first provide a review of the literature and, second, present the results of a comprehensive simulation study. The calibration approaches are compared with respect to their empirical properties and relationships, their ability to generalize precise probability estimates to external populations and their availability in terms of easy-to-use software implementations. Third, we provide code from real data analysis allowing its application by researchers. Logistic calibration and beta calibration, which estimate an intercept plus one and two slope parameters, respectively, consistently showed the best results in the simulation studies. Calibration on logit transformed probability estimates generally outperformed calibration methods on nontransformed estimates. In case of structural differences between training and validation data, re-estimation of the entire prediction model should be outweighted against sample size of the validation data. We recommend regression-based calibration approaches using transformed probability estimates, where at least one slope is estimated in addition to an intercept for updating probability estimates in validation studies.

Guidelines for Neuroprognostication in Comatose Adult Survivors of Cardiac Arrest.

BACKGROUND: Among cardiac arrest survivors, about half remain comatose 72 h following return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). Prognostication of poor neurological outcome in this population may result in withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy and death. The objective of this article is to provide recommendations on the reliability of select clinical predictors that serve as the basis of neuroprognostication and provide guidance to clinicians counseling surrogates of comatose cardiac arrest survivors. METHODS: A narrative systematic review was completed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology. Candidate predictors, which included clinical variables and prediction models, were selected based on clinical relevance and the presence of an appropriate body of evidence. The Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting (PICOTS) question was framed as follows: "When counseling surrogates of comatose adult survivors of cardiac arrest, should [predictor, with time of assessment if appropriate] be considered a reliable predictor of poor functional outcome assessed at 3 months or later?" Additional full-text screening criteria were used to exclude small and lower-quality studies. Following construction of the evidence profile and summary of findings, recommendations were based on four GRADE criteria: quality of evidence, balance of desirable and undesirable consequences, values and preferences, and resource use. In addition, good practice recommendations addressed essential principles of neuroprognostication that could not be framed in PICOTS format. RESULTS: Eleven candidate clinical variables and three prediction models were selected based on clinical relevance and the presence of an appropriate body of literature. A total of 72 articles met our eligibility criteria to guide recommendations. Good practice recommendations include waiting 72 h following ROSC/rewarming prior to neuroprognostication, avoiding sedation or other confounders, the use of multimodal assessment, and an extended period of observation for awakening in patients with an indeterminate prognosis, if consistent with goals of care. The bilateral absence of pupillary light response > 72 h from ROSC and the bilateral absence of N20 response on somatosensory evoked potential testing were identified as reliable predictors. Computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging of the brain > 48 h from ROSC and electroencephalography > 72 h from ROSC were identified as moderately reliable predictors. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines provide recommendations on the reliability of predictors of poor outcome in the context of counseling surrogates of comatose survivors of cardiac arrest and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication. Few predictors were considered reliable or moderately reliable based on the available body of evidence.

Guidelines for Neuroprognostication in Adults with Guillain-Barré Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) often carries a favorable prognosis. Of adult patients with GBS, 10-30% require mechanical ventilation during the acute phase of the disease. After the acute phase, the focus shifts to restoration of motor strength, ambulation, and neurological function, with variable speed and degree of recovery. The objective of these guidelines is to provide recommendations on the reliability of select clinical predictors that serve as the basis of neuroprognostication and provide guidance to clinicians counseling adult patients with GBS and/or their surrogates. METHODS: A narrative systematic review was completed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology. Candidate predictors, including clinical variables and prediction models, were selected based on clinical relevance and presence of appropriate body of evidence. The Population/Intervention/Comparator/Outcome/Time frame/Setting (PICOTS) question was framed as follows: "When counseling patients or surrogates of critically ill patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome, should [predictor, with time of assessment if appropriate] be considered a reliable predictor of [outcome, with time frame of assessment]?" Additional full-text screening criteria were used to exclude small and lower quality studies. Following construction of an evidence profile and summary of findings, recommendations were based on four GRADE criteria: quality of evidence, balance of desirable and undesirable consequences, values and preferences, and resource use. In addition, good practice recommendations addressed essential principles of neuroprognostication that could not be framed in PICOTS format. RESULTS: Eight candidate clinical variables and six prediction models were selected. A total of 45 articles met our eligibility criteria to guide recommendations. We recommend bulbar weakness (the degree of motor weakness at disease nadir) and the Erasmus GBS Respiratory Insufficiency Score as moderately reliable for prediction of the need for mechanical ventilation. The Erasmus GBS Outcome Score (EGOS) and modified EGOS were identified as moderately reliable predictors of independent ambulation at 3 months and beyond. Good practice recommendations include consideration of both acute and recovery phases of the disease during prognostication, discussion of the possible need for mechanical ventilation and enteral nutrition during counseling, and consideration of the complete clinical condition as opposed to a single variable during prognostication. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines provide recommendations on the reliability of predictors of the need for mechanical ventilation, poor functional outcome, and independent ambulation following GBS in the context of counseling patients and/or surrogates and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication. Few predictors were considered moderately reliable based on the available body of evidence, and higher quality data are needed.

[Intracerebral Hemorrhage]. / Intrazerebrale Blutungen.

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICB) causes approximately 12% of all strokes in Germany and 9-27% of all strokes worldwide 1 2. Epidemiological studies show a decrease in younger individuals mainly due to better antihypertensive management, but there is also an increase in incidence in older individuals due to cerebral amyloid angiopathy and increasing use of anticoagulants 3.

Five-Year Results of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting With or Without Carotid Endarterectomy in Patients With Asymptomatic Carotid Artery Stenosis: CABACS RCT.

BACKGROUND: In patients with coronary artery disease and concomitant asymptomatic severe carotid stenosis, combined simultaneous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and carotid endarterectomy (CEA) has been widely performed despite lack of evidence from randomized trials. We recently showed that the risk of stroke or death within 30 days was higher following CABG+CEA compared with CABG alone. Here, we report long-term outcomes following CABG with versus without CEA. METHODS: The CABACS (Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery in Patients With Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis Study) is a randomized, controlled, multicenter, open trial. Patients with asymptomatic severe (≥70%) carotid stenosis undergoing CABG were allocated either CABG+CEA or CABG alone, and follow-up was 5 years. Major secondary end points included nonfatal stroke or death, any death and any nonfatal stroke. Due to low recruitment, the study was stopped prematurely after randomization of 127 patients in 17 centers. RESULTS: By 5 years, the rate of stroke or death did not significantly differ between groups (CABG+CEA 40.6% [95% CI, 0.285-0.536], CABG alone 35.0% [95% CI, 0.231-0.484]; P=0.58). Higher albeit statistically nonsignificant rates of nonfatal strokes occurred at any time following CABG+CEA versus CABG alone (1 year: 19.3% versus 7.1%, P=0.09; 5 years: 29.4% versus 18.8%, P=0.25). All-cause mortality up to 5 years was similar in both groups (CABG+CEA: 25.4% versus CABG alone: 23.3%, hazard ratio, 1.148 [95% CI, 0.560-2.353]; P=0.71). Subgroup analyses did not reveal any significant effect of age, sex, preoperative modified Rankin Scale and center on outcome events. CONCLUSIONS: During 5-years follow-up, combined simultaneous CABG+CEA was associated with a higher albeit statistically nonsignificant rate of stroke or death compared with CABG alone. This was mainly due to a nonsignificantly higher perioperative risk following CABG+CEA. Since the power of our study was not sufficient, no significant effect of either procedure could be observed at any time during follow-up. REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com; Unique identifier: ISRCTN13486906.

Revacept, an Inhibitor of Platelet Adhesion in Symptomatic Carotid Stenosis: A Multicenter Randomized Phase II Trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with symptomatic internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis are at high risk of recurrent ischemic stroke and require early interventional treatment and antiplatelet therapy. Increased bleeding rates might counterbalance the periprocedural efficacy of intensified platelet inhibition. We aim to investigate, whether Revacept, a competitive antagonist of glycoprotein VI, adjunct to standard antiplatelet therapy reduces the occurrence of ischemic lesions in patients with symptomatic ICA stenosis. METHODS: International, multicenter (16 sites), 3-arm, randomized (1:1:1), double-blind, and placebo-controlled study with parallel groups, including patients with symptomatic ICA stenosis. A single infusion over 20 minutes of either placebo, 40 mg or 120 mg Revacept in addition to guideline-conform antiplatelet therapy was evaluated with regard to the exploratory efficacy end point: Number of new ischemic lesions on diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging after treatment initiation. Main clinical outcome was the combined safety and efficacy end point including any stroke or death, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, coronary intervention, and bleeding complications during follow-up. RESULTS: Out of 160 randomized patients, 158 patients (68±10.1 years, 24% female) received study medication (51 patients placebo, 54 patients 40 mg Revacept and 53 patients 120 mg Revacept) and were followed for 11.2±2.3 months. A total of 1.16 (95% CI, 0.88-1.53)/1.05 (95% CI, 0.78-1.42; P=0.629)/0.63 (95% CI, 0.43-0.93) new diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging lesions per patient were detected in the placebo/40 mg/120 mg Revacept groups, without statistical evidence of a difference. A reduction of the combined safety and efficacy end point during the study period was observed in patients who received 120 mg (HR, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.21-0.99]; P=0.047), but not 40 mg Revacept compared with placebo (HR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.37-1.42]; P=0.343). CONCLUSIONS: Revacept 120 mg reduced the combined safety and efficacy end point in patients with symptomatic ICA stenosis. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique Identifier: NCT01645306.

Validity of the Early Functional Ability scale (EFA) among critically ill patients undergoing early neurological rehabilitation.

BACKGROUND: A reliable assessment of the functional abilities of patients after severe brain damage is crucial for valid prognostication and treatment decisions, but most clinical scales are of limited use among this specific group of patients. AIM: The present study investigates the usefulness of the Early Functional Ability (EFA) scale, which determines the functional abilities of severely impaired patients. METHODS: Critically ill patients consecutively admitted to early neurological rehabilitation were screened for eligibility. We assessed the correlation between the EFA scale and (i) the Early Rehabilitation Barthel Index (ERBI), and (ii) the Coma Recovery Scale-Revised (CRS-R). The 1-year outcome on the Glasgow Outcome Scale-extended (GOSE) was used to examine the predictive validity. Demographical and medical variables were entered into univariate and multivariate binary regression models to identify independent predictors of 1-year outcome. RESULTS: Two hundred fifty-seven patients (168 men) with a median age of 62 years (IQR = 51-75) were enrolled. The correlation of the EFA scale with the CRS-R was high but low with the ERBI upon admission. Multivariate regression analysis yielded the vegetative subscale of the EFA scale as the only independent predictor for the 1-year outcome of patients admitted to early neurological rehabilitation. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a high correlation of the EFA scale with the CRS-R but a weak correlation with the ERBI in patients with low functional abilities. With improving patient abilities, these correlations were partly reversed. Thus, the EFA scale is a useful tool to assess the functional abilities and the prognosis of critically ill patients adequately and may be more feasible than other scales.

Renal Impairment and Risk of Acute Stroke: The INTERSTROKE Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies reported an association of renal impairment with stroke, but there are uncertainties underpinning this association. AIMS: We explored if the association is explained by shared risk factors or is independent and whether there are regional or stroke subtype variations. METHODS: INTERSTROKE is a case-control study and the largest international study of risk factors for first acute stroke, completed in 27 countries. We included individuals with available serum creatinine values and calculated estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Renal impairment was defined as eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to determine the association of renal function with stroke. RESULTS: Of 21,127 participants, 41.0% were female, the mean age was 62.3 ± 13.4 years, and the mean eGFR was 79.9 ± 23.5 mL/min/1.73 m2. The prevalence of renal impairment was higher in cases (22.9% vs. 17.7%, p < 0.001) and differed by region (p < 0.001). After adjustment, lower eGFR was associated with increased odds of stroke. Renal impairment was associated with increased odds of all stroke (OR 1.35; 95% CI: 1.24-1.47), with higher odds for intracerebral hemorrhage (OR 1.60; 95% CI: 1.35-1.89) than ischemic stroke (OR 1.29; 95% CI: 1.17-1.42) (pinteraction 0.12). The largest magnitudes of association were seen in younger participants and those living in Africa, South Asia, or South America (pinteraction < 0.001 for all stroke). Renal impairment was also associated with poorer clinical outcome (RRR 2.97; 95% CI: 2.50-3.54 for death within 1 month). CONCLUSION: Renal impairment is an important risk factor for stroke, particularly in younger patients, and is associated with more severe stroke and worse outcomes.

Development and external validation of a prognostic model for ischaemic stroke after surgery.

BACKGROUND: There is an under-recognised patient cohort at elevated risk of postoperative ischaemic stroke. We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model for the identification of such patients at high risk of ischaemic stroke within 1 yr after noncardiac surgery. METHODS: This was a hospital registry study of adult patients undergoing noncardiac surgery between 2005 and 2017 at two independent healthcare networks in Massachusetts, USA without a preoperative indication for therapeutic anticoagulation. Logistic regression was used to fit a model from a priori defined candidate predictors for the outcome 1 yr postoperative ischaemic stroke. To enhance clinical applicability, the model was simplified to a scoring system and externally validated. RESULTS: In the development (n=107 756) and validation (n=141 724) cohorts, 1.4% and 0.5% of patients had an ischaemic stroke up to 1 yr postoperatively. The final model included 13 variables (patient characteristics, comorbidities, procedural factors), considering sub-models conditional on a previous history of ischaemic stroke. Areas under the curve were 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.89-0.90) and 0.88 (95% confidence interval 0.86-0.89) in the development and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis indicated positive net benefits superior to other prediction instruments. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke after surgery (STRAS) screening can reliably identify patients with a high risk for ischaemic stroke during the first year after surgery. A STRAS-guided risk stratification may inform the recruitment to future randomised trials testing the efficacy of treatments for the prevention of postoperative ischaemic stroke.

[Diagnosis and therapy of cerebral venous and sinus thrombosis]. / Diagnostik und Therapie der zerebralen Venen- und Sinusthrombose.

Although cerebral venous and sinus thrombosis (CVST) is a rare cerebrovascular disease, it is being diagnosed with increasing frequency due to increased clinical awareness, better imaging capabilities, and higher survival rates in patients with predisposing conditions. This article shows how the diagnosis can be made effectively and what therapeutic options exist in the acute phase and secondary prophylaxis.

Patent Foramen Ovale Closure or Anticoagulation vs. Antiplatelets after Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Trials of patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure to prevent recurrent stroke have been inconclusive. We investigated whether patients with cryptogenic stroke and echocardiographic features representing risk of stroke would benefit from PFO closure or anticoagulation, as compared with antiplatelet therapy. METHODS: In a multicenter, randomized, open-label trial, we assigned, in a 1:1:1 ratio, patients 16 to 60 years of age who had had a recent stroke attributed to PFO, with an associated atrial septal aneurysm or large interatrial shunt, to transcatheter PFO closure plus long-term antiplatelet therapy (PFO closure group), antiplatelet therapy alone (antiplatelet-only group), or oral anticoagulation (anticoagulation group) (randomization group 1). Patients with contraindications to anticoagulants or to PFO closure were randomly assigned to the alternative noncontraindicated treatment or to antiplatelet therapy (randomization groups 2 and 3). The primary outcome was occurrence of stroke. The comparison of PFO closure plus antiplatelet therapy with antiplatelet therapy alone was performed with combined data from randomization groups 1 and 2, and the comparison of oral anticoagulation with antiplatelet therapy alone was performed with combined data from randomization groups 1 and 3. RESULTS: A total of 663 patients underwent randomization and were followed for a mean (±SD) of 5.3±2.0 years. In the analysis of randomization groups 1 and 2, no stroke occurred among the 238 patients in the PFO closure group, whereas stroke occurred in 14 of the 235 patients in the antiplatelet-only group (hazard ratio, 0.03; 95% confidence interval, 0 to 0.26; P<0.001). Procedural complications from PFO closure occurred in 14 patients (5.9%). The rate of atrial fibrillation was higher in the PFO closure group than in the antiplatelet-only group (4.6% vs. 0.9%, P=0.02). The number of serious adverse events did not differ significantly between the treatment groups (P=0.56). In the analysis of randomization groups 1 and 3, stroke occurred in 3 of 187 patients assigned to oral anticoagulants and in 7 of 174 patients assigned to antiplatelet therapy alone. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients who had had a recent cryptogenic stroke attributed to PFO with an associated atrial septal aneurysm or large interatrial shunt, the rate of stroke recurrence was lower among those assigned to PFO closure combined with antiplatelet therapy than among those assigned to antiplatelet therapy alone. PFO closure was associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation. (Funded by the French Ministry of Health; CLOSE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00562289 .).

Cost-benefit of outcome adjudication in nine randomised stroke trials.

BACKGROUND: Central adjudication of outcomes is common for randomised trials and should control for differential misclassification. However, few studies have estimated the cost of the adjudication process. METHODS: We estimated the cost of adjudicating the primary outcome in nine randomised stroke trials (25,436 participants). The costs included adjudicators' time, direct payments to adjudicators, and co-ordinating centre costs (e.g. uploading cranial scans and general set-up costs). The number of events corrected after adjudication was our measure of benefit. We calculated cost per corrected event for each trial and in total. RESULTS: The primary outcome in all nine trials was either stroke or a composite that included stroke. In total, the adjudication process associated with this primary outcome cost in excess of £100,000 for a third of the trials (3/9). Mean cost per event corrected by adjudication was £2295.10 (SD: £1482.42). CONCLUSIONS: Central adjudication is a time-consuming and potentially costly process. These costs need to be considered when designing a trial and should be evaluated alongside the potential benefits adjudication brings to determine whether they outweigh this expense.

Patent foramen ovale and long-term risk of ischaemic stroke after surgery.

AIMS: Pre-operatively diagnosed patent foramen ovale (PFO) is associated with an increased risk of ischaemic stroke within 30 days after surgery. This study aimed to assess the PFO-attributable ischaemic stroke risk beyond the perioperative period. METHODS AND RESULTS: This observational study of adult patients without history of stroke undergoing non-cardiac surgery with general anaesthesia examined the association of PFO with ischaemic stroke 1 and 2 years after surgery using multivariable logistic regression. Of the 144 563 patients included, a total of 1642 (1.1%) and 2376 (1.6%) ischaemic strokes occurred within 1 and 2 years after surgery, 54 (4.7%) and 76 (6.6%) among patients with PFO, and 1588 (1.1%) and 2300 (1.6%) among patients without PFO, respectively. The odds of ischaemic stroke within 1 and 2 years after surgery were increased in patients with PFO: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51-2.69; P < 0.001 and aOR 2.10, 95% CI 1.64-2.68; P < 0.001, respectively. Among patients who underwent contrast transoesophageal echocardiography, the frequency of PFO was 27%, and the increased stroke risk in patients with PFO was robust (aOR 3.80, 95% CI 1.76-8.23; P = 0.001 for year 1). The PFO-attributable risk was mitigated by post-operative prescription of combination antithrombotic therapy (odds ratio 0.41, 95% CI 0.22-0.75; P for interaction = 0.004). CONCLUSION: Patients with PFO are vulnerable to ischaemic stroke for an extended period of time after surgery. Physicians should consider implementing PFO screening protocols in patients scheduled for major non-cardiac surgery.

Value of Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification for Risk Prediction of Coronary and Cardiovascular Events: Result of the HNR Study (Heinz Nixdorf Recall).

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography (CT) allows estimation of coronary artery calcium (CAC) progression. We evaluated several progression algorithms in our unselected, population-based cohort for risk prediction of coronary and cardiovascular events. METHODS: In 3281 participants (45-74 years of age), free from cardiovascular disease until the second visit, risk factors, and CTs at baseline (b) and after a mean of 5.1 years (5y) were measured. Hard coronary and cardiovascular events, and total cardiovascular events including revascularization, as well, were recorded during a follow-up time of 7.8±2.2 years after the second CT. The added predictive value of 10 CAC progression algorithms on top of risk factors including baseline CAC was evaluated by using survival analysis, C-statistics, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination index. A subgroup analysis of risk in CAC categories was performed. RESULTS: We observed 85 (2.6%) hard coronary, 161 (4.9%) hard cardiovascular, and 241 (7.3%) total cardiovascular events. Absolute CAC progression was higher with versus without subsequent coronary events (median, 115 [Q1-Q3, 23-360] versus 8 [0-83], P<0.0001; similar for hard/total cardiovascular events). Some progression algorithms added to the predictive value of baseline CT and risk assessment in terms of C-statistic or integrated discrimination index, especially for total cardiovascular events. However, CAC progression did not improve models including CAC5y and 5-year risk factors. An excellent prognosis was found for 921 participants with double-zero CACb=CAC5y=0 (10-year coronary and hard/total cardiovascular risk: 1.4%, 2.0%, and 2.8%), which was for participants with incident CAC 1.8%, 3.8%, and 6.6%, respectively. When CACb progressed from 1 to 399 to CAC5y≥400, coronary and total cardiovascular risk were nearly 2-fold in comparison with subjects who remained below CAC5y=400. Participants with CACb≥400 had high rates of hard coronary and hard/total cardiovascular events (10-year risk: 12.0%, 13.5%, and 30.9%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: CAC progression is associated with coronary and cardiovascular event rates, but adds only weakly to risk prediction. What counts is the most recent CAC value and risk factor assessment. Therefore, a repeat scan >5 years after the first scan may be of additional value, except when a double-zero CT scan is present or when the subjects are already at high risk.

Outcome Assessment by Central Adjudicators Versus Site Investigators in Stroke Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background and Purpose- In randomized stroke trials, central adjudication of a trial's primary outcome is regularly implemented. However, recent evidence questions the importance of central adjudication in randomized trials. The aim of this review was to compare outcomes assessed by central adjudicators with outcomes assessed by site investigators. Methods- We included randomized stroke trials where the primary outcome had undergone an assessment by site investigators and central adjudicators. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials), Web of Science, PsycINFO, and Google Scholar for eligible studies. We extracted information about the adjudication process as well as the treatment effect for the primary outcome, assessed both by central adjudicators and by site investigators. We calculated the ratio of these treatment effects so that a ratio of these treatment effects >1 indicated that central adjudication resulted in a more beneficial treatment effect than assessment by the site investigator. A random-effects meta-analysis model was fitted to estimate a pooled effect. Results- Fifteen trials, comprising 69 560 participants, were included. The primary outcomes included were stroke (8/15, 53%), a composite event including stroke (6/15, 40%) and functional outcome after stroke measured on the modified Rankin Scale (1/15, 7%). The majority of site investigators were blind to treatment allocation (9/15, 60%). On average, there was no difference in treatment effect estimates based on data from central adjudicators and site investigators (pooled ratio of these treatment effects=1.02; 95% CI, [0.95-1.09]). Conclusions- We found no evidence that central adjudication of the primary outcome in stroke trials had any impact on trial conclusions. This suggests that potential advantages of central adjudication may not outweigh cost and time disadvantages in stroke studies if the primary purpose of adjudication is to ensure validity of trial findings.

Practice patterns and outcomes after stroke across countries at different economic levels (INTERSTROKE): an international observational study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke disproportionately affects people in low-income and middle-income countries. Although improvements in stroke care and outcomes have been reported in high-income countries, little is known about practice and outcomes in low and middle-income countries. We aimed to compare patterns of care available and their association with patient outcomes across countries at different economic levels. METHODS: We studied the patterns and effect of practice variations (ie, treatments used and access to services) among participants in the INTERSTROKE study, an international observational study that enrolled 13 447 stroke patients from 142 clinical sites in 32 countries between Jan 11, 2007, and Aug 8, 2015. We supplemented patient data with a questionnaire about health-care and stroke service facilities at all participating hospitals. Using univariate and multivariate regression analyses to account for patient casemix and service clustering, we estimated the association between services available, treatments given, and patient outcomes (death or dependency) at 1 month. FINDINGS: We obtained full information for 12 342 (92%) of 13 447 INTERSTROKE patients, from 108 hospitals in 28 countries; 2576 from 38 hospitals in ten high-income countries and 9766 from 70 hospitals in 18 low and middle-income countries. Patients in low-income and middle-income countries more often had severe strokes, intracerebral haemorrhage, poorer access to services, and used fewer investigations and treatments (p<0·0001) than those in high-income countries, although only differences in patient characteristics explained the poorer clinical outcomes in low and middle-income countries. However across all countries, irrespective of economic level, access to a stroke unit was associated with improved use of investigations and treatments, access to other rehabilitation services, and improved survival without severe dependency (odds ratio [OR] 1·29; 95% CI 1·14-1·44; all p<0·0001), which was independent of patient casemix characteristics and other measures of care. Use of acute antiplatelet treatment was associated with improved survival (1·39; 1·12-1·72) irrespective of other patient and service characteristics. INTERPRETATION: Evidence-based treatments, diagnostics, and stroke units were less commonly available or used in low and middle-income countries. Access to stroke units and appropriate use of antiplatelet treatment were associated with improved recovery. Improved care and facilities in low-income and middle-income countries are essential to improve outcomes. FUNDING: Chest, Heart and Stroke Scotland.