Risk scores for predicting dysphagia in critically ill patients after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed at developing and validating a scoring model to stratify critically ill patients after cardiac surgery based on risk for dysphagia, a common but often neglected complication. METHODS: Data were prospectively collected and analyzed from January 2016 to June 2017 from 395 consecutive post cardiac surgery patients at the cardiac care unit (CCU) at a single center; 103 (26.1%) developed dysphagia. Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were used to identify independent predictors for dysphagia. The survival nomogram was developed on the basis of a multivariable Cox model, which allowed us to obtain survival probability estimations. The predictive performance of the nomogram was verified for discrimination and calibration. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were used to illustrate and evaluate the diagnostic performance of the novel model. RESULTS: The final novel scoring model, named SSG-OD, consists of three independent factors: gastric intubation (OR = 1.024, 95% CI 1.015-1.033), sedative drug use duration (OR = 1.031, 95% CI 1.001-1.063) and stroke or not (OR = 6.182, 95% CI 3.028-12.617). SSG-OD identified patients at risk for dysphagia with sensitivity of 68.5% and specificity of 89.0% (OR = 0.833, 95% CI: 0.782-0.884). The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.22 and 0.35. CONCLUSIONS: The novel SSG-OD scoring system to risk stratify CCU patients for dysphagia is an easy-to-use bedside prognostication aid with good predictive performance and the potential to reduce aspiration incidence and accelerate recovery.

Use of the cardiopulmonary coupling index based on refined composite multiscale entropy for prognostication of acute type A aortic dissection.

Objectives: The aim of this study is to assess the influence of cardiopulmonary coupling (CPC) based on RCMSE on the prediction of complications and death in patients with acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD). Background: The cardiopulmonary system may be nonlinearly regulated, and its coupling relationship with postoperative risk stratification in ATAAD patients has not been studied. Methods: This study was a single-center, prospective cohort study (ChiCTR1800018319). We enrolled 39 patients with ATAAD. The outcomes were in-hospital complications and all-cause readmission or death at 2 years. Results: Of the 39 participants, 16 (41.0%) developed complications in the hospital, and 15 (38.5%) died or were readmitted to the hospital during the two-year follow-up. When CPC-RCMSE was used to predict in-hospital complications in ATAAD patients, the AUC was 0.853 (p < 0.001). When CPC-RCMSE was used to predict all-cause readmission or death at 2 years, the AUC was 0.731 (p < 0.05). After adjusting for age, sex, ventilator support (days), and special care time (days), CPC-RCMSE remained an independent predictor of in-hospital complications in patients with ATAAD [adjusted OR: 0.8 (95% CI, 0.68-0.94)]. Conclusion: CPC-RCMSE was an independent predictor of in-hospital complications and all-cause readmission or death in patients with ATAAD.

Age shock index and age-modified shock index are strong predictors of outcomes in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients undergoing emergency percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of high-risk patients provides clinicians with greater decision-making time and better informs strategies to cope with disease. The predictive values of age shock index (age SI) and age-modified shock index (age MSI) in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients undergoing emergency percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have rarely been reported, especially compared with those for SI, MSI, and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Nine hundred and eighty-three STEMI patients undergoing emergency PCI between January 2014 and September 2017 were analyzed in a retrospective cohort study. The primary outcomes were rates of in-hospital cardiovascular events, and 6-month and long-term all-cause mortality. RESULTS: In multivariate analyses, the predictive values of age SI and age MSI were comparable to that of the GRACE score, but superior to those of SI and MSI for in-hospital cardiac mortality [age SI: odds ratio (OR) = 1.05, P < 0.001, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC-AUC) = 0.805, P < 0.001; age MSI: OR = 1.04, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.813, P < 0.001; GRACE score: OR = 1.03, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.827, P < 0.001], 6-month all-cause mortality (age SI: OR = 1.04, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.791, P < 0.001; age MSI: OR = 1.03, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.801, P < 0.001; GRACE score: ROC-AUC = 0.828, P < 0.001), long-term all-cause mortality [age SI: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.06, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.798, P < 0.001; age MSI: HR = 1.04, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.84, P < 0.001; GRACE score: ROC-AUC = 0.822, P < 0.001] and post-discharge all-cause mortality (age SI: HR = 1.05, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.78, P = 0.001; age MSI: HR = 1.05, P < 0.001, ROC-AUC = 0.789, P < 0.001; GRACE score: ROC-AUC = 0.812, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Age SI and age MSI are stronger predictors than SI and MSI for in-hospital cardiovascular events, and 6-month and long-term all-cause mortality in STEMI patients undergoing emergency PCI. Age SI and age MSI appear to be convenient and simpler indicators than the GRACE score.