Spatial and temporal distribution of infectious disease epidemics, disasters and other potential public health emergencies in the World Health Organisation Africa region, 2016-2018.

BACKGROUND: Emerging and re-emerging diseases with pandemic potential continue to challenge fragile health systems in Africa, creating enormous human and economic toll. To provide evidence for the investment case for public health emergency preparedness, we analysed the spatial and temporal distribution of epidemics, disasters and other potential public health emergencies in the WHO African region between 2016 and 2018. METHODS: We abstracted data from several sources, including: the WHO African Region's weekly bulletins on epidemics and emergencies, the WHO-Disease Outbreak News (DON) and the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Other sources were: the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED) and the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON). We included information on the time and location of the event, the number of cases and deaths and counter-checked the different data sources. DATA ANALYSIS: We used bubble plots for temporal analysis and generated graphs and maps showing the frequency and distribution of each event. Based on the frequency of events, we categorised countries into three: Tier 1, 10 or more events, Tier 2, 5-9 events, and Tier 3, less than 5 or no event. Finally, we compared the event frequencies to a summary International Health Regulations (IHR) index generated from the IHR technical area scores of the 2018 annual reports. RESULTS: Over 260 events were identified between 2016 and 2018. Forty-one countries (87%) had at least one epidemic between 2016 and 2018, and 21 of them (45%) had at least one epidemic annually. Twenty-two countries (47%) had disasters/humanitarian crises. Seven countries (the epicentres) experienced over 10 events and all of them had limited or developing IHR capacities. The top five causes of epidemics were: Cholera, Measles, Viral Haemorrhagic Diseases, Malaria and Meningitis. CONCLUSIONS: The frequent and widespread occurrence of epidemics and disasters in Africa is a clarion call for investing in preparedness. While strengthening preparedness should be guided by global frameworks, it is the responsibility of each government to finance country specific needs. We call upon all African countries to establish governance and predictable financing mechanisms for IHR implementation and to build resilient health systems everywhere.

Two Obstacles in Response Efforts to the Ebola Epidemic in the Provinces of North Kivu and Ituri in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Denial of and Rumors about the Disease.

Denial and rumors are two major obstacles impairing the implementation of activities in response to the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic. This study investigated the roles of denial and rumors, among other challenges, in complicating the response to the EVD outbreak in the North Kivu and Ituri provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. A total of 800 randomly selected respondents were surveyed using a structured questionnaire. In-depth interviews were conducted with 17 community religious and opinion leaders, as well as Ebola survivors. Furthermore, 20 focus group discussions were conducted with adult and youth male and female participants, and health care workers. The results revealed that the existence of the disease is widely denied by many, including political leaders, village chiefs, neighborhood chiefs, street chiefs, avenue chiefs, and members of the general population. These individuals generally consider the EVD to be the result of a misbehavior or a curse; consequently, the general population, including community members, teachers, and even health care professionals, refuse to comply with the authorities' strategies to fight the epidemic. Rumors are another obstacle in response efforts. Rumors pertaining to the denial of the existence of the EVD, as well as the epidemic, Ebola treatment centers, hospitals, vaccines, and safe and dignified burials have been identified. Rumors about the EVD and the response, spread by clerics, traditional therapists, men, and women, including healthcare professionals in focus group discussions, portrayed the EVD as an invention, as if the virus had been created. The response to the EVD has been marked by these two constraints, which have often hindered the involvement of community members in the fight against the disease.