A Comparison of Palliative Care Delivery between Ethnically Chinese and Non-Chinese Canadians in the Last Year of Life.

BACKGROUND: Ethnically Chinese adults in Canada and the United States face multiple barriers in accessing equitable, culturally respectful care at the end-of-life. Palliative care (PC) is committed to supporting patients and families in achieving goal-concordant, high-quality serious illness care. Yet, current PC delivery may be culturally misaligned. Therefore, understanding ethnically Chinese patients' use of palliative care may uncover modifiable factors to sustained inequities at the end-of-life. OBJECTIVE: To compare the use and delivery of PC in the last year of life between ethnically Chinese and non-Chinese adults. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: All Ontario adults who died between January 1st, 2012, and October 31st, 2022, in Ontario, Canada. EXPOSURES: Chinese ethnicity. MAIN MEASURES: Elements of physician-delivered PC, including model of care (generalist; specialist; mixed), timing and location of initiation, and type of palliative care physician at initial consultation. KEY RESULTS: The final study cohort included 527,700 non-Chinese (50.8% female, 77.9 ± 13.0 mean age, 13.0% rural residence) and 13,587 ethnically Chinese (50.8% female, 79.2 ± 13.6 mean age, 0.6% rural residence) adults. Chinese ethnicity was associated with higher likelihoods of using specialist (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.53, 95%CI 1.46-1.60) and mixed (aOR 1.32, 95%CI 1.26-1.38) over generalist models of PC, compared to non-Chinese patients. Chinese ethnicity was also associated with a higher likelihood of PC initiation in the last 30 days of life (aOR 1.07, 95%CI 1.03-1.11), in the hospital setting (aOR 1.24, 95%CI 1.18-1.30), and by specialist PC physicians (aOR 1.33, 95%CI 1.28-1.38). CONCLUSIONS: Chinese ethnicity was associated with a higher likelihood of mixed and specialist models of PC delivery in the last year of life compared to adults who were non-Chinese. These observed differences may be due to later initiation of PC in hospital settings, and potential differences in unmeasured needs that suggest opportunities to initiate early, community-based PC to support ethnically Chinese patients with serious illness.

The response of Canada's clinical health research ecosystem to the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The response of Canada's research community to the COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique opportunity to examine the country's clinical health research ecosystem. We sought to describe patterns of enrolment across Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR)-funded studies on COVID-19. METHODS: We identified COVID-19 studies funded by the CIHR and that enrolled participants from Canadian acute care hospitals between January 2020 and April 2023. We collected information on study-and site-level variables from study leads, site investigators, and public domain sources. We described and evaluated factors associated with cumulative enrolment. RESULTS: We obtained information for 23 out of 26 (88%) eligible CIHR-funded studies (16 randomized controlled trials [RCTs] and 7 cohort studies). The 23 studies were managed by 12 Canadian and 3 international coordinating centres. Of 419 Canadian hospitals, 97 (23%) enrolled a total of 28 973 participants - 3876 in RCTs across 78 hospitals (median cumulative enrolment per hospital 30, interquartile range [IQR] 10-61), and 25 097 in cohort studies across 62 hospitals (median cumulative enrolment per hospital 158, IQR 6-348). Of 78 hospitals recruiting participants in RCTs, 13 (17%) enrolled 50% of all RCT participants, whereas 6 of 62 hospitals (9.7%) recruited 54% of participants in cohort studies. INTERPRETATION: A minority of Canadian hospitals enrolled the majority of participants in CIHR-funded studies on COVID-19. This analysis sheds light on the Canadian health research ecosystem and provides information for multiple key partners to consider ways to realize the full research potential of Canada's health systems.

Effect of immediate initiation of invasive ventilation on mortality in acute hypoxemic respiratory failure: a target trial emulation.

PURPOSE: Invasive ventilation is a fundamental treatment in intensive care but its precise timing is difficult to determine. This study aims at assessing the effect of initiating invasive ventilation versus waiting, in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure without immediate reason for intubation on one-year mortality. METHODS: Emulation of a target trial to estimate the benefit of immediately initiating invasive ventilation in hypoxemic respiratory failure, versus waiting, among patients within the first 48-h of hypoxemia. The eligible population included non-intubated patients with SpO2/FiO2 ≤ 200 and SpO2 ≤ 97%. The target trial was emulated using a single-center database (MIMIC-IV) which contains granular information about clinical status. The hourly probability to receive mechanical ventilation was continuously estimated. The hazard ratios for the primary outcome, one-year mortality, and the secondary outcome, 30-day mortality, were estimated using weighted Cox models with stabilized inverse probability weights used to adjust for measured confounding. RESULTS: 2996 Patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria of whom 792 were intubated within 48 h. Among the non-invasive support devices, the use of oxygen through facemask was the most common (75%). Compared to patients with the same probability of intubation but who were not intubated, intubation decreased the hazard of dying for the first year after ICU admission HR 0.81 (95% CI 0.68-0.96, p = 0.018). Intubation was associated with a 30-day mortality HR of 0.80 (95% CI 0.64-0.99, p = 0.046). CONCLUSION: The initiation of mechanical ventilation in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure reduced the hazard of dying in this emulation of a target trial.

Do Thresholds for Invasive Ventilation in Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure Exist? A Cohort Study.

Rationale: Invasive ventilation is a significant event for patients with respiratory failure. Physiologic thresholds standardize the use of invasive ventilation in clinical trials, but it is unknown whether thresholds prompt invasive ventilation in clinical practice. Objectives: To measure, in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure, the probability of invasive ventilation within 3 hours after meeting physiologic thresholds. Methods: We studied patients admitted to intensive care receiving FiO2 of 0.4 or more via nonrebreather mask, noninvasive positive pressure ventilation, or high-flow nasal cannula, using data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database (2008-2019) and the Amsterdam University Medical Centers Database (AmsterdamUMCdb) (2003-2016). We evaluated 17 thresholds, including the ratio of arterial to inspired oxygen, the ratio of saturation to inspired oxygen ratio, composite scores, and criteria from randomized trials. We report the probability of invasive ventilation within 3 hours of meeting each threshold and its association with covariates using odds ratios (ORs) and 95% credible intervals (CrIs). Measurements and Main Results: We studied 4,726 patients (3,365 from MIMIC, 1,361 from AmsterdamUMCdb). Invasive ventilation occurred in 28% (1,320). In MIMIC, the highest probability of invasive ventilation within 3 hours of meeting a threshold was 20%, after meeting prespecified neurologic or respiratory criteria while on vasopressors, and 19%, after a ratio of arterial to inspired oxygen of <80 mm Hg. In AmsterdamUMCdb, the highest probability was 34%, after vasopressor initiation, and 25%, after a ratio of saturation to inspired oxygen of <90. The probability after meeting the threshold from randomized trials was 9% (MIMIC) and 13% (AmsterdamUMCdb). In MIMIC, a race/ethnicity of Black (OR, 0.75; 95% CrI, 0.57-0.96) or Asian (OR, 0.6; 95% CrI, 0.35-0.95) compared with White was associated with decreased probability of invasive ventilation after meeting a threshold. Conclusions: The probability of invasive ventilation within 3 hours of meeting physiologic thresholds was low and associated with patient race/ethnicity.

Association of Noninvasive Respiratory Support with Extubation Outcomes in Brain-injured Patients Receiving Mechanical Ventilation: A Secondary Analysis of the ENIO Prospective Observational Study.

Rationale: Noninvasive respiratory support using a high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) or noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) can decrease the risk of reintubation in patients being liberated from mechanical ventilation, but effects in patients with acute brain injury (ABI) are unknown. Objectives: To evaluate the association between postextubation noninvasive respiratory support and reintubation in patients with ABI being liberated from mechanical ventilation. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of a prospective, observational study of mechanically ventilated patients with ABI (clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT03400904). The primary endpoint was reintubation during ICU admission. We used mixed-effects logistic regression models with patient-level covariates and random intercepts for hospital and country to evaluate the association between prophylactic (i.e., planned) HFNC or NIPPV and reintubation. Measurements and Main Results: 1,115 patients were included from 62 hospitals and 19 countries, of whom 267 received HFNC or NIPPV following extubation (23.9%). Compared with conventional oxygen therapy, neither prophylactic HFNC nor NIPPV was associated with decreased odds of reintubation (respectively, odds ratios of 0.97 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-1.73] and 0.63 [0.30-1.32]). Findings remained consistent in sensitivity analyses accounting for alternate adjustment procedures, missing data, shorter time frames of the primary endpoint, and competing risks precluding reintubation. In a Bayesian analysis using skeptical and data-driven priors, the probabilities of reduced reintubation ranged from 17% to 34% for HFNC and from 46% to 74% for NIPPV. Conclusions: In a large cohort of brain-injured patients undergoing liberation from mechanical ventilation, prophylactic use of HFNC and NIPPV were not associated with reintubation. Prospective trials are needed to confirm treatment effects in this population. Primary study registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03400904).

Oxygenation thresholds for invasive ventilation in hypoxemic respiratory failure: a target trial emulation in two cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The optimal thresholds for the initiation of invasive ventilation in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure are unknown. Using the saturation-to-inspired oxygen ratio (SF), we compared lower versus higher hypoxemia severity thresholds for initiating invasive ventilation. METHODS: This target trial emulation included patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV, 2008-2019) and the Amsterdam University Medical Centers (AmsterdamUMCdb, 2003-2016) databases admitted to intensive care and receiving inspired oxygen fraction ≥ 0.4 via non-rebreather mask, noninvasive ventilation, or high-flow nasal cannula. We compared the effect of using invasive ventilation initiation thresholds of SF < 110, < 98, and < 88 on 28-day mortality. MIMIC-IV was used for the primary analysis and AmsterdamUMCdb for the secondary analysis. We obtained posterior means and 95% credible intervals (CrI) with nonparametric Bayesian G-computation. RESULTS: We studied 3,357 patients in the primary analysis. For invasive ventilation initiation thresholds SF < 110, SF < 98, and SF < 88, the predicted 28-day probabilities of invasive ventilation were 72%, 47%, and 19%. Predicted 28-day mortality was lowest with threshold SF < 110 (22.2%, CrI 19.2 to 25.0), compared to SF < 98 (absolute risk increase 1.6%, CrI 0.6 to 2.6) or SF < 88 (absolute risk increase 3.5%, CrI 1.4 to 5.4). In the secondary analysis (1,279 patients), the predicted 28-day probability of invasive ventilation was 50% for initiation threshold SF < 110, 28% for SF < 98, and 19% for SF < 88. In contrast with the primary analysis, predicted mortality was highest with threshold SF < 110 (14.6%, CrI 7.7 to 22.3), compared to SF < 98 (absolute risk decrease 0.5%, CrI 0.0 to 0.9) or SF < 88 (absolute risk decrease 1.9%, CrI 0.9 to 2.8). CONCLUSION: Initiating invasive ventilation at lower hypoxemia severity will increase the rate of invasive ventilation, but this can either increase or decrease the expected mortality, with the direction of effect likely depending on baseline mortality risk and clinical context.

Effect of Lowering Vt on Mortality in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Varies with Respiratory System Elastance.

Rationale: If the risk of ventilator-induced lung injury in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is causally determined by driving pressure rather than by Vt, then the effect of ventilation with lower Vt on mortality would be predicted to vary according to respiratory system elastance (Ers). Objectives: To determine whether the mortality benefit of ventilation with lower Vt varies according to Ers. Methods: In a secondary analysis of patients from five randomized trials of lower- versus higher-Vt ventilation strategies in ARDS and acute hypoxemic respiratory failure, the posterior probability of an interaction between the randomized Vt strategy and Ers on 60-day mortality was computed using Bayesian multivariable logistic regression. Measurements and Main Results: Of 1,096 patients available for analysis, 416 (38%) died by Day 60. The posterior probability that the mortality benefit from lower-Vt ventilation strategies varied with Ers was 93% (posterior median interaction odds ratio, 0.80 per cm H2O/[ml/kg]; 90% credible interval, 0.63-1.02). Ers was classified as low (<2 cm H2O/[ml/kg], n = 321, 32%), intermediate (2-3 cm H2O/[ml/kg], n = 475, 46%), and high (>3 cm H2O/[ml/kg], n = 224, 22%). In these groups, the posterior probabilities of an absolute risk reduction in mortality ≥ 1% were 55%, 82%, and 92%, respectively. The posterior probabilities of an absolute risk reduction ≥ 5% were 29%, 58%, and 82%, respectively. Conclusions: The mortality benefit of ventilation with lower Vt in ARDS varies according to elastance, suggesting that lung-protective ventilation strategies should primarily target driving pressure rather than Vt.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on intensive care unit workers: a nationwide survey.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Canadian intensive care unit (ICU) workers. METHODS: Between June and August 2020, we distributed a cross-sectional online survey of ICU workers evaluating the impact of the pandemic, coping strategies, symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD; Impact of Events Scale-Revised), and psychological distress, anxiety, and depression (Kessler Psychological Distress Scale). We performed regression analyses to determine the predictors of psychological symptoms. RESULTS: We analyzed responses from 455 ICU workers (80% women; 67% from Ontario; 279 nurses, 69 physicians, and 107 other healthcare professionals). Respondents felt that their job put them at great risk of exposure (60%), were concerned about transmitting COVID-19 to family members (76%), felt more stressed at work (67%), and considered leaving their job (37%). Overall, 25% had probable PTSD and 18% had minimal or greater psychological distress. Nurses were more likely to report PTSD symptoms (33%) and psychological distress (23%) than physicians (5% for both) and other health disciplines professionals (19% and 14%). Variables associated with PTSD and psychological distress included female sex (beta-coefficient [B], 1.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20 to 2.10 and B, 3.79; 95% CI, 1.79 to 5.78, respectively; P < 0.001 for differences in scores across groups) and perceived increased risk due to PPE shortage or inadequate PPE training (B, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.51 to 2.31 and B, 4.88; 95% CI, 3.34 to 6.43, respectively). Coping strategies included talking to friends/family/colleagues (80%), learning about COVID-19 (78%), and physical exercise (68%). Over half endorsed the following workplace strategies as valuable: hospital-provided scrubs, clear communication and protocols by hospitals, knowing their voice is heard, subsidized parking, and gestures of appreciation from leadership. CONCLUSIONS: This survey study shows that ICU workers have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic with high levels of stress and psychological burden. Respondents endorsed communication, protocols, and appreciation from leadership as helpful mitigating strategies.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Évaluer l'impact de la pandémie de COVID-19 sur les travailleurs canadiens des unités de soins intensifs (USI). MéTHODE: Entre juin et août 2020, nous avons fait parvenir un sondage transversal en ligne aux travailleurs des soins intensifs pour évaluer l'impact de la pandémie, les stratégies d'adaptation et les symptômes de stress post-traumatique (SPT; Échelle révisée de l'impact de l'événement - IES-R), ainsi que la détresse psychologique, l'anxiété et la dépression (Échelle de détresse psychologique de Kessler). Nous avons réalisé des analyses de régression pour déterminer les prédicteurs de symptômes psychologiques. RéSULTATS: Nous avons analysé les réponses de 455 travailleurs des soins intensifs (80 % de femmes; 67 % de l'Ontario; 279 infirmières/infirmiers, 69 médecins et 107 autres professionnels de la santé). Les répondants ont estimé que leur emploi les plaçait face à un risque élevé d'exposition (60 %), craignaient de transmettre la COVID-19 aux membres de leur famille (76 %), se sentaient plus stressés au travail (67 %) et avaient envisagé de quitter leur emploi (37 %). Dans l'ensemble, 25 % souffraient probablement d'un SPT et 18 % présentaient une détresse psychologique minimale ou supérieure. Les infirmières et infirmiers étaient plus susceptibles de rapporter des symptômes de SPT (33 %) et de détresse psychologique (23 %) que les médecins (5 % pour les deux) et les professionnels de la santé des autres disciplines (19 % et 14 %). Les variables associées à un SPT et à la détresse psychologique comprenaient le sexe féminin (coefficient bêta [B], 1,59; intervalle de confiance [IC] à 95 %, 1,20 à 2,10 et B, 3,79; IC 95 %, 1,79 à 5,78, respectivement; P < 0,001 pour les différences de scores entre les groupes) et la perception d'un risque accru en raison des pénuries d'EPI ou d'une formation inadéquate en EPI (B, 1,87; IC 95 %, 1,51 à 2,31 et B, 4,88; IC 95 %, 3,34 à 6,43, respectivement). Les stratégies d'adaptation comprenaient le fait de parler aux amis, à la famille ou aux collègues (80 %), l'acquisition de connaissances concernant la COVID-19 (78 %) et l'exercice physique (68 %). Plus de la moitié ont estimé que les stratégies de travail suivantes étaient utiles : des uniformes fournis par les hôpitaux, une communication et des protocoles clairs de la part des hôpitaux, le fait de savoir que leur voix est entendue, un stationnement subventionné et des gestes d'appréciation de la part des dirigeants. CONCLUSION: Cette étude montre que les travailleurs des soins intensifs ont été touchés par la pandémie de COVID-19 avec des niveaux élevés de stress et de fardeau psychologique. Les répondants ont déclaré que la communication, les protocoles et les gestes d'appréciation de la direction constituaient des stratégies d'atténuation utiles.

Evaluating satisfaction with the quality and provision of end-of-life care for patients from diverse ethnocultural backgrounds.

BACKGROUND: Recently immigrated and ethnic minority patients in Ontario, Canada are more likely to receive aggressive life-prolonging treatment at the end of life in comparison to other patients. To explore this finding further, this survey-based observational study aimed to evaluate satisfaction with the quality of end-of-life care for patients from diverse ethnocultural backgrounds. METHODS: The End-of-Life Satisfaction Survey was used to measure satisfaction with the quality of inpatient end-of-life care from the perspective of next-of-kin of recently deceased patients at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Toronto, Ontario (between March 2012 to May 2019). The primary outcome was the global rating of satisfaction. Associations with patient ethnicity, patient religion, level of religiosity/spirituality, language/communication barriers, and location of death were assessed using univariable and multivariable modified Poisson regression. Secondary outcomes included differences in satisfaction and rates of dying in intensive care units (ICU) among patient population subgroups, and identification of high priority areas for quality-of-care improvement. RESULTS: There were 1,543 respondents. Patient ethnicities included Caucasian (68.2%), Mediterranean (10.5%), East Asian (7.6%), South Asian (3.5%), Southeast Asian (2.1%) and Middle Eastern (2.0%); religious affiliations included Christianity (66.6%), Judaism (12.3%) and Islam (2.1%), among others. Location of death was most commonly in ICU (38.4%), hospital wards (37.0%) or long-term care (20.0%). The mean(SD) rating of satisfaction score was 8.30(2.09) of 10. After adjusting for other covariates, satisfaction with quality of end-of-life care was higher among patients dying in ICU versus other locations (relative risk [RR] 1.51, 95%CI 1.05-2.19, p=0.028), lower among those who experienced language/communication barriers (RR 0.49 95%CI 0.23-1.06, p=0.069), and lower for Muslim patients versus other religious affiliations (RR 0.46, 95%CI 0.21-1.02, p=0.056). Survey items identified as highest priority areas for quality-of-care improvement included communication and information giving; illness management; and healthcare provider characteristics such as emotional support, doctor availability and time spent with patient/family. CONCLUSION: Satisfaction with quality-of-care at the end of life was higher among patients dying in ICU and lower among Muslim patients or when there were communication barriers between families and healthcare providers. These findings highlight the importance of measuring and improving end-of-life care across the ethnocultural spectrum.

Association between Chinese or South Asian ethnicity and end-of-life care in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Ethnicity may be associated with important aspects of end-of-life care, such as what treatments are received, access to palliative care and where people die. However, most studies have focused on end-of-life care of white, Hispanic and black patients. We sought to compare end-of-life care delivered to people of Chinese and South Asian ethnicity with that delivered to others from the general population, in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we included all people who died in Ontario, Canada, between Apr. 1, 2004, and Mar. 31, 2015. People were identified as having Chinese or South Asian ethnicity on the basis of a validated surname algorithm. We used modified Poisson regression analyses to assess location of death and care received in the last 6 months of life. RESULTS: We analyzed 967 339 decedents, including 18 959 (2.0%) of Chinese and 11 406 (1.2%) of South Asian ethnicity. Chinese (13.6%) and South Asian (18.5%) decedents were more likely than decedents from the general population (10.1%) to die in the intensive care unit (ICU). The adjusted relative risk of dying in intensive care was 1.21 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15 to 1.27) for Chinese and 1.25 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.30) for South Asian decedents. In their last 6 months of life, decedents of Chinese and South Asian ethnicity experienced significantly more ICU admission, hospital admission, mechanical ventilation, dialysis, percutaneous feeding tube placement, tracheostomy and cardiopulmonary resuscitation than the general population. INTERPRETATION: Decedents of Chinese and South Asian ethnicity in Ontario were more likely than decedents from the general population to receive aggressive care and to die in an ICU. These findings may be due to communication difficulties between patients and clinicians, differences in preferences about end-of-life care or differences in access to palliative care services.

Measuring variability between clusters by subgroup: An extension of the median odds ratio.

Investigating clustered data requires consideration of the variation across clusters, including consideration of the component of the total individual variance that is at the cluster level. The median odds ratio and analogues are useful intuitive measures available to communicate variability in outcomes across clusters using the variance of random intercepts from a multilevel regression model. However, the median odds ratio cannot describe variability across clusters for different patient subgroups because the random intercepts do not vary by subgroup. To empower investigators interested in equity and other applications of this scenario, we describe an extension of the median odds ratio to multilevel regression models employing both random intercepts and random coefficients. By example, we conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of variation in care limitations (goals of care preferences) according to ethnicity in patients admitted to intensive care. Using mixed-effects logistic regression clustered by hospital, we demonstrated that patients of non-Caucasian ethnicity were less likely to have care limitations but experienced similar variability across hospitals. Limitations of the extended median odds ratio include the large sample sizes and computational power needed for models with random coefficients. This extension of the median odds ratio to multilevel regression models with random coefficients will provide insight into cluster-level variability for researchers interested in equity and other phenomena where variability by patient subgroup is important.

Association Between Immigrant Status and End-of-Life Care in Ontario, Canada.

Importance: People who immigrate face unique health literacy, communication, and system navigation challenges, and they may have diverse preferences that influence end-of-life care. Objective: To examine end-of-life care provided to immigrants to Canada in the last 6 months of their life. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study (April 1, 2004, to March 31, 2015) included 967 013 decedents in Ontario, Canada, using validated linkages between health and immigration databases to identify immigrant (since 1985) and long-standing resident cohorts. Exposures: All decedents who immigrated to Canada between 1985 and 2015 were classified as recent immigrants, with subgroup analyses assessing the association of time since immigration, and region of birth, with end-of-life care. Main Outcomes and Measures: Location of death and intensity of care received in the last 6 months of life. Analysis included modified Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations, adjusting for age, sex, socioeconomic position, causes of death, urban and rural residence, and preexisting comorbidities. Results: Among 967 013 decedents of whom 47 514 (5%) immigrated since 1985, sex, socioeconomic status, urban (vs rural) residence, and causes of death were similar, while long-standing residents were older than immigrant decedents (median [interquartile range] age, 75 [58-84] vs 80 [68-87] years). Recent immigrant decedents were overall more likely to die in intensive care (15.6% vs 10.0%; difference, 5.6%; 95% CI, 5.2%-5.9%) after adjusting for differences in age, sex, income, geography, and cause of death (relative risk, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.27-1.32). In their last 6 months of life, recent immigrant decedents experienced more intensive care admissions (24.9% vs 19.2%; difference, 5.7%; 95% CI, 5.3%-6.1%), hospital admissions (72.1% vs 68.2%; difference, 3.9%; 95% CI, 3.5%-4.3%), mechanical ventilation (21.5% vs 13.6%; difference, 7.9%; 95% CI, 7.5%-8.3%), dialysis (5.5% vs 3.4%; difference, 2.1%; 95% CI, 1.9%-2.3%), percutaneous feeding tube placement (5.5% vs 3.0%; difference, 2.5%; 95% CI, 2.3%-2.8%), and tracheostomy (2.3% vs 1.1%; difference, 1.2%; 95% CI, 1.1%-1.4%). Relative risk of dying in intensive care for recent immigrants compared with long-standing residents varied according to recent immigrant region of birth from 0.84 (95% CI, 0.74-0.95) among those born in Northern and Western Europe to 1.96 (95% CI, 1.89-2.05) among those born in South Asia. Conclusions and Relevance: Among decedents in Ontario, Canada, recent immigrants were significantly more likely to receive aggressive care and to die in an intensive care unit compared with other residents. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms behind this association.

Physicians' warnings for unfit drivers and the risk of trauma from road crashes.

BACKGROUND: Physicians' warnings to patients who are potentially unfit to drive are a medical intervention intended to prevent trauma from motor vehicle crashes. We assessed the association between medical warnings and the risk of subsequent road crashes. METHODS: We identified consecutive patients who received a medical warning in Ontario, Canada, between April 1, 2006, and December 31, 2009, from a physician who judged them to be potentially unfit to drive. We excluded patients who were younger than 18 years of age, who were not residents of Ontario, or who lacked valid health-card numbers under universal health insurance. We analyzed emergency department visits for road crashes during a baseline interval before the warning and a subsequent interval after the warning. RESULTS: A total of 100,075 patients received a medical warning from a total of 6098 physicians. During the 3-year baseline interval, there were 1430 road crashes in which the patient was a driver and presented to the emergency department, as compared with 273 road crashes during the 1-year subsequent interval, representing a reduction of approximately 45% in the annual rate of crashes per 1000 patients after the warning (4.76 vs. 2.73, P<0.001). The lower rate was observed across patients with diverse characteristics. No significant change was observed in subsequent crashes in which patients were pedestrians or passengers. Medical warnings were associated with an increase in subsequent emergency department visits for depression and a decrease in return visits to the responsible physician. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians' warnings to patients who are potentially unfit to drive may contribute to a decrease in subsequent trauma from road crashes, yet they may also exacerbate mood disorders and compromise the doctor-patient relationship. (Funded by the Canada Research Chairs program and others.).

What Is the Potential Value of a Randomized Trial of Different Thresholds to Initiate Invasive Ventilation? A Health Economic Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the expected value of undertaking a future randomized controlled trial of thresholds used to initiate invasive ventilation compared with usual care in hypoxemic respiratory failure. PERSPECTIVE: Publicly funded healthcare payer. SETTING: Critical care units capable of providing invasive ventilation and unconstrained by resource limitations during usual (nonpandemic) practice. METHODS: We performed a model-based cost-utility estimation with individual-level simulation and value-of-information analysis focused on adults, admitted to critical care, receiving noninvasive oxygen. In the primary scenario, we compared hypothetical threshold A to usual care, where threshold A resulted in increased use of invasive ventilation and improved survival compared with usual care. In the secondary scenario, we compared hypothetical threshold B to usual care, where threshold B resulted in decreased use of invasive ventilation and similar survival compared with usual care. We assumed a willingness-to-pay of 100,000 Canadian dollars (CADs) per quality-adjusted life year. RESULTS: In the primary scenario, threshold A was cost-effective compared with usual care due to improved hospital survival (78.1% vs. 75.1%), despite more use of invasive ventilation (62% vs. 30%) and higher lifetime costs (86,900 vs. 75,500 CAD). In the secondary scenario, threshold B was cost-effective compared with usual care due to similar survival (74.5% vs. 74.6%) with less use of invasive ventilation (20.2% vs. 27.6%) and lower lifetime costs (71,700 vs. 74,700 CAD). Value-of-information analysis showed that the expected value to Canadian society over 10 years of a 400-person randomized trial comparing a threshold for invasive ventilation to usual care in hypoxemic respiratory failure was 1.35 billion CAD or more in both scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: It would be highly valuable to society to identify thresholds that, in comparison to usual care, either increase survival or reduce invasive ventilation without reducing survival.

Designing a Bayesian adaptive clinical trial to evaluate novel mechanical ventilation strategies in acute respiratory failure using integrated nested Laplace approximations.

BACKGROUND: Adaptive trials usually require simulations to determine values for design parameters, demonstrate error rates, and establish the sample size. We designed a Bayesian adaptive trial comparing ventilation strategies for patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure using simulations. The complexity of the analysis would usually require computationally expensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods but this barrier to simulation was overcome using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) algorithm to provide fast, approximate Bayesian inference. METHODS: We simulated two-arm Bayesian adaptive trials with equal randomization that stratified participants into two disease severity states. The analysis used a proportional odds model, fit using INLA. Trials were stopped based on pre-specified posterior probability thresholds for superiority or futility, separately for each state. We calculated the type I error and power across 64 scenarios that varied the probability thresholds and the initial minimum sample size before commencing adaptive analyses. Two designs that maintained a type I error below 5%, a power above 80%, and a feasible mean sample size were evaluated further to determine the optimal design. RESULTS: Power generally increased as the initial sample size and the futility threshold increased. The chosen design had an initial recruitment of 500 and a superiority threshold of 0.9925, and futility threshold of 0.95. It maintained high power and was likely to reach a conclusion before exceeding a feasible sample size. CONCLUSIONS: We designed a Bayesian adaptive trial to evaluate novel strategies for ventilation using the INLA algorithm to efficiently evaluate a wide range of designs through simulation.