Pulmonary emphysema and coronary artery calcifications at baseline LDCT and long-term mortality in smokers and former smokers of the ITALUNG screening trial.

OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular disease (CVD), lung cancer (LC), and respiratory diseases are main causes of death in smokers and former smokers undergoing low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for LC screening. We assessed whether quantification of pulmonary emphysematous changes at baseline LDCT has a predictive value concerning long-term mortality. METHODS: In this longitudinal study, we assessed pulmonary emphysematous changes with densitometry (volume corrected relative area below - 950 Hounsfield units) and coronary artery calcifications (CAC) with a 0-3 visual scale in baseline LDCT of 524 participants in the ITALUNG trial and analyzed their association with mortality after 13.6 years of follow-up using conventional statistics and a machine learning approach. RESULTS: Pulmonary emphysematous changes were present in 32.3% of subjects and were mild (6% ≤ RA950 ≤ 9%) in 14.9% and moderate-severe (RA950 > 9%) in 17.4%. CAC were present in 67% of subjects (mild in 34.7%, moderate-severe in 32.2%). In the follow-up, 81 (15.4%) subjects died (20 of LC, 28 of other cancers, 15 of CVD, 4 of respiratory disease, and 14 of other conditions). After adjusting for age, sex, smoking history, and CAC, moderate-severe emphysema was significantly associated with overall (OR 2.22; 95CI 1.34-3.70) and CVD (OR 3.66; 95CI 1.21-11.04) mortality. Machine learning showed that RA950 was the best single feature predictive of overall and CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate-severe pulmonary emphysematous changes are an independent predictor of long-term overall and CVD mortality in subjects participating in LC screening and should be incorporated in the post-test calculation of the individual mortality risk profile. KEY POINTS: • Densitometry allows quantification of pulmonary emphysematous changes in low-dose CT examinations for lung cancer screening. • Emphysematous lung density changes are an independent predictor of long-term overall and cardio-vascular disease mortality in smokers and former smokers undergoing screening. • Emphysematous changes quantification should be included in the post-test calculation of the individual mortality risk profile.

Testing behavioral economics messages to increase non-responders' participation in organized colorectal cancer-screening programs: A randomized controlled trial.

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of behavioral economic-inspired messages on participation in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs. We conducted a randomized-controlled trial involving 11,505 non-responders to the CRC screening programs in Florence, Rome, and Turin in 2020. Participants aged 54-70 years were randomly assigned to four conditions. Individuals in the control conditions received a standard invitation letter while the three intervention groups included an additional paragraph featuring either i. normative feedback [F] message (giving feedback that invited subjects did not participate); ii. Minority norm [MN] message (only a minority did not participate); iii. F+ MN message (combining both messages). The primary outcome was the screening participation rate 90 days after the invitation was completed. A multivariate analysis was conducted adjusting for gender, age and birthplace. Overall, screening participation rates were 5.3% in the control condition, 7.0% in the F, 8.2% in the MN, and 7.4% in the F + MN arms (p = 0.002). Invited subjects in the MN arm were more likely to participate (adjusted Odds Ratio[aOR] = 1.38; 95% Confidence Interval [95%CI,1.13-1.68]), particularly those aged 54-59 years (aOR = 1.52; 95%CI:1.16-1.98), and 60-64 (aOR = 1.57; 95%CI:1.62-; 95%CI: 1.06-2.48). Additionally, individuals aged 60-64 invited in F and F + MN arms demonstrated a higher likelihood of participation (aOR for F arm = 1.60; 95%CI: 1.06-2.41; aOR for F + MN arm = 1.99; 95%CI: 1.35-2.92). The inclusion of MN and/or F messages in the invitation letter increased participation among previous non-responders <65 years. Behavioral economics is a promising area of interest for enhancing CRC screening participation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registration number: ISRCTN11841256.

Long-Term Follow-up of the Italian Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening Trial.

BACKGROUND: Recent reports showed that the protective effect of flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) screening was maintained up to17 years, although differences were reported by sex. OBJECTIVE: To assess long-term reduction of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality after a single FS screening. DESIGN: Parallel randomized controlled trial. (ISRCTN registry number: 27814061). SETTING: 6 centers in Italy. PARTICIPANTS: Persons aged 55 to 64 years expressing interest in having FS screening if invited, recruited from 1995 to 1999 and followed until 2012 (incidence) and 2014 to 2016 (mortality). INTERVENTION: Eligible persons were randomly assigned (1:1 ratio) to either the once-only FS screening group or control (usual care) group. MEASUREMENTS: Incidence and mortality rate ratios (RRs) and rate differences. RESULTS: A total of 34 272 persons (17 136 in each group) were included in the analysis; 9911 participants had screening in the intervention group. Median follow-up was 15.4 years for incidence and 18.8 years for mortality. Incidence of CRC was reduced by 19% (RR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.71 to 0.93]) in the intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis, comparing the intervention with the control group, and by 33% (RR, 0.67 [CI, 0.56 to 0.81]) in the per protocol (PP) analysis, comparing participants screened in the intervention group with the control persons. Colorectal cancer mortality was reduced by 22% (RR, 0.78 [CI, 0.61 to 0.98]) in the ITT analysis and by 39% (RR, 0.61 [CI, 0.44 to 0.84]) in the PP analysis. Incidence of CRC was statistically significantly reduced among both men and women. Colorectal cancer mortality was statistically significantly reduced among men (ITT RR, 0.73 [CI, 0.54 to 0.97]) but not among women (ITT RR, 0.90 [CI, 0.59 to 1.37]). LIMITATION: Self-selection of volunteers from the general population sample targeted for recruitment may limit generalizability. CONCLUSION: The strong protective effect of a single FS screening for CRC incidence and mortality was maintained up to 15 and 19 years, respectively. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Italian Association for Cancer Research, Italian National Research Council, Istituto Oncologico Romagnolo, Fondo "E. Tempia," University of Milan, and Local Health Unit ASL-Torino.

SICOB-endorsed national Delphi consensus on obesity treatment optimization: focus on diagnosis, pre-operative management, and weight regain/insufficient weight loss approach.

PURPOSE: Overweight and obesity affects 60% of adults causing more than 1.2 million deaths across world every year. Fight against involved different specialist figures and multiple are the approved weapons. Aim of the present survey endorsed by the Italian Society of Bariatric Surgery (SICOB) is to reach a national consensus on obesity treatment optimization through a Delphi process. METHODS: Eleven key opinion leaders (KOLs) identified 22 statements with a major need of clarification and debate. The explored pathways were: (1) Management of patient candidate to bariatric/metabolic surgery (BMS); (2) Management of patient not eligible for BMS; (3) Management of patient with short-term (2 years) weight regain (WR) or insufficient weight loss (IWL); (4) Management of the patient with medium-term (5 years) WR; and (5) Association between drugs and BMS as WR prevention. The questionnaire was distributed to 65 national experts via an online platform with anonymized results. RESULTS: 54 out of 65 invited panelists (83%) respond. Positive consensus was reached for 18/22 statements (82%); while, negative consensus (s20.4; s21.5) and no consensus (s11.5, s17) were reached for 2 statements, respectively (9%). CONCLUSION: The Delphi results underline the importance of first-line interdisciplinary management, with large pre-treatment examination, and establish a common opinion on how to properly manage post-operative IWL/WR. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE V: Report of expert committees.

Updating obesity management strategies: an audit of Italian specialists.

Obesity negatively affects physical and psychological health and increases health care costs. Although there is increasing interest in early diagnosis and timely intervention, there are several principles of care included in the current guidelines for clinical management of obesity that can potentially be updated and improved to address the "clinical inertia" and, consequently, to optimize the management of adult obesity. Using an online Delphi-based process, an Italian board of experts involved in the management of obesity discussed the usefulness of a pro-active approach to the care of patients with obesity, providing a consensus document with practical indications to identify risk factors for morbidity and death and raise awareness throughout the treatment continuum, including the early stages of the disease. In clinical practice, it seems inappropriate to delay an intervention that could avoid progression to a more severe level of obesity and/or prevent the onset of obesity-related comorbidities.Level of evidence Level V, report of expert committee.

Synthetic indicator of the impact of colorectal cancer screening programmes on incidence rates.

OBJECTIVE: The impact of a screening programme on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in its target population depends on several variables, including coverage with invitations, participation rate, positivity rate of the screening test, compliance with an invitation to second-level assessment and endoscopists' sensitivity. We propose a synthetic indicator that may account for all the variables influencing the potential impact of a screening programme on CRC incidence. DESIGN: We defined the 'rate of advanced adenoma on the target population' (AA-TAP) as the rate of patients who received a diagnosis of advanced adenoma within a screening programme, divided by the programme target population. We computed the AA-TAP for the CRC Italian screening programmes (biennial faecal immunochemical test, target population 50-69 year olds) using the data of the Italian National Survey from 2003 to 2016, overall and by region, and assessed the association between AA-TAP and CRC incidence fitting a linear regression between the trend of regional CRC incidence rates in 50-74 year old subjects and the cumulative AA-TAP. RESULTS: In 2016, the AA-TAP at a national level was 105×100 000, whereas significant differences were observed between the northern and central regions (respectively 126 and 149×100 000) and the South and Islands (36×100 000). The cumulative AA-TAP from 2004 to 2012 was significantly correlated with the difference between CRC incidence rates in 2013-2014 and those in 2003-2004 (p=0.009). CONCLUSION: The AA-TAP summarises into a single indicator the potential impact of a screening programme in reducing CRC incidence rates.

Faecal haemoglobin concentration among subjects with negative FIT results is associated with the detection rate of neoplasia at subsequent rounds: a prospective study in the context of population based screening programmes in Italy.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the predictive role of faecal haemoglobin (f-Hb) concentration among subjects with faecal immunochemical test (FIT) results below the positivity cut-off for the subsequent risk of advanced neoplasia (AN: colorectal cancer-CRC-or advanced adenoma). DESIGN: Prospective cohort of subjects aged 50-69 years, undergoing their first FIT between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2010 in four population-based programmes in Italy. METHODS: All programmes adopted the same analytical procedure (OC Sensor, Eiken Japan), performed every 2 years, on a single sample, with the same positivity cut-off (20 µg Hb/g faeces). We assessed the AN risk at subsequent exams, the cumulative AN detection rate (DR) over the 4-year period following the second FIT and the interval CRC (IC) risk following two negative FITs by cumulative amount of f-Hb concentration over two consecutive negative FITs, using multivariable logistic regression models and the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: The cumulative probability of a positive FIT result over the subsequent two rounds ranged between 7.8% (95% CI 7.5 to 8.2) for subjects with undetectable f-Hb at the initial two tests (50% of the screenees) and 48.4% (95% CI 44.0 to 53.0) among those (0.7% of the screenees) with a cumulative f-Hb concentration ≥20 µg/g faeces. The corresponding figures for cumulative DR were: 1.4% (95% CI 1.3 to 1.6) and 25.5% (95% CI 21.4 to 30.2) for AN; 0.17% (95% CI 0.12 to 0.23) and 4.5% (95% CI 2.8 to 7.1) for CRC. IC risk was also associated with cumulative f-Hb levels. CONCLUSION: The association of cumulative f-Hb concentration with subsequent AN and IC risk may allow to design tailored strategies to optimise the utilisation of endoscopy resources: subjects with cumulative f-Hb concentration ≥20 µg/g faeces over two negative tests could be referred immediately for total colonoscopy (TC), while screening interval might be extended for those with undetectable f-Hb.

Smoking Cessation in the ITALUNG Lung Cancer Screening: What Does "Teachable Moment" Mean?

BACKGROUND: Changes in smoking habits and predictors of smoking cessation were examined in the randomized ITALUNG lung cancer screening trial. METHODS: In three centers, eligible smokers or ex-smokers (55-69 years, ≥20 pack-years in the last 10 years) were randomized to receive annual invitation for low-dose computed tomography for 4 years or usual care. At invitation, subjects received written information for a free smoking cessation program. Quitting outcome was assessed at year 4. RESULTS: Among participants who completed baseline assessments and year 4 screening, higher quitting (20.8% vs. 16.7%, p = .029) and lower relapse (6.41% vs. 7.56%, p = .50) rates were observed in the active screening group as compared to the usual-care control group. Corresponding figures in the intention-to-treat analysis were as follows: 16.04% versus 14.64% (p = .059) and 4.88% versus 6.43% (p = .26). Quitting smoking was significantly associated to male gender, lower pack-years, and having pulmonary nodules at baseline. Center-specific analyses showed a threefold statistically significant higher probability to quit associated with participating in the smoking cessation program. A subsample of smokers of the scan group from one center showed higher quitting rates over 12-month follow-up as compared to matched controls from the general population who underwent the same smoking cessation program. CONCLUSIONS: Consistently with previous reports, in the ITALUNG trial, screened subjects showed significantly higher quit rates than controls, and higher quit rates were associated with both the presence of pulmonary nodules and participating in a smoking cessation program. Maximal effect on quitting outcome was observed with the participation in the smoking cessation program. IMPLICATIONS: Participating in lung cancer screening promotes smoking cessation. An effective "teachable moment" may be achieved when the smoking cessation intervention is structured as integral part of the screening clinical visits and conducted by a dedicated team of health care professionals. Standardized guidelines for smoking cessation interventions in lung cancer screening are needed.

[Oncological organized screening programmes in the COVID-19 era: an Italian survey on accrued delays, reboot velocity, and diagnostic delay estimates]. / Ritardi maturati dai programmi di screening oncologici ai tempi del COVID-19 in Italia, velocità della ripartenza e stima dei possibili ritardi diagnostici.

OBJECTIVES: to describe the course of Italian organized cancer screening programmes during the COVID-19 emergency; to provide estimates of the diagnosis of malignant or pre-malignant lesions that will face a diagnostic delay due to the slowing down of screening activities. DESIGN: quantitative survey of aggregated data for each Region and overall for Italy relating to screening tests carried out in the period January-May 2020 compared to those of the same period of 2019; estimate of diagnostic delays starting from the calculation of the average detection rate of the last 3 years available (specific by Region). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Italian mass screening programmes. Data on the tests carried out in the target population of the breast (women 50-69 years old), cervix (women 25-64 years old), and colorectal (women and men 50-69 years old) cancer screening. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the cumulative delay (in absolute numbers and as a percentage) in the period January-May 2020 compared to the same period of 2019, by Region; the difference of screening tests (in absolute number and in percentage) performed in May 2020 compared to May 2019; the estimate of the fewer lesions diagnosed in 2020 compared with 2019 with relative 95% confidence intervals (95%CI); the 'standard months' of delay (proportion of fewer tests carried out from January to May 2020 for the corresponding number of months). RESULTS: 20 Regions out of 21 participated. In the period January-May 2020, the fewer screening tests performed in comparison with the same period of 2019 were: 472,389 (equal to 53.8%) with an average delay of standard months of 2.7 for mammography screening; 585,287 (equal to 54.9%) with an average delay of standard months of 2.7 for colorectal screening; 371,273 (equal to 55.3%) with an average delay of 2.8 standard months for cervical screening. The estimated number of undiagnosed lesions is 2,201 (95%CI 2,173-2,220) breast cancers; 645 (95%CI 632-661) colorectal carcinomas; 3,890 (95%CI 3,855-3,924) advanced colorectal adenomas and 1,497 (95%CI 1,413-1,586) CIN2 or more serious lesions. CONCLUSIONS: mass screenings need to be restarted as quickly as possible. In order to make up for the delay that is accumulating, it is necessary to provide for wider delivery times, greater resources, and new organizational approaches. It will also be essential to develop communication strategies suitable for promoting participation during this emergency.

Impact of screening programme using the faecal immunochemical test on stage of colorectal cancer: Results from the IMPATTO study.

To evaluate the impact of faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening on stage distribution at diagnosis, and to estimate relative incidence rates by stage in screened at first and subsequent rounds vs. unscreened. We included all incident cases occurring in 2000-2008 in 50- to 71-year-olds residing in areas with an FIT-screening programme. Multinomial logistic models were computed to estimate the relative risk ratio (RRR) of stages I and IV, compared to stage II + III, adjusting for age, sex, geographical area, and incidence year. Proportions were then used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) by stage for screened subjects at the first and at subsequent rounds vs. unscreened subjects, applying the expected changes in overall incidence during screening phases. 11,663 cancers were included: 5965 in not-invited and 5,698 in invited subjects, 3,425 of whom attendees. Compared to not-invited, invited subjects had RRR 2.04 (95% CI: 1.84; 2.46) of stage I and RRR 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69; 0.87) of stage IV. Differences were stronger comparing attendees vs. nonattendees. Interval cancers were more frequently stage I compared to non-invited (RRR 1.54; 95% CI: 1.15; 2.04), but there was no difference for stage IV. IRRs in screened at first round vs. unscreened were 4.6 (95% CI: 4.2; 5.1), 1.4 (95% CI: 1.3; 1.5) and 0.7 (95% CI: 0.6; 0.9) for stages I, II + III and IV, respectively; in the following rounds the IRRs of screened vs. unscreened were 1.4 (95% CI: 1.2; 1.6), 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7; 0.9) and 0.3 (95% CI: 0.1; 0.4) for stages I, II + III and IV, respectively. FIT screening reduces the incidence of metastatic cancers by about 70% after the first round.

Patients' experience of screening CT colonography with reduced and full bowel preparation in a randomised trial.

OBJECTIVES: To assess patients' experience of bowel preparation and procedure for screening CT colonography with reduced (r-CTC) and full cathartic preparation (f-CTC) that showed similar detection rate for advanced neoplasia in a randomised trial. METHODS: Six hundred seventy-four subjects undergoing r-CTC and 612 undergoing f-CTC in the SAVE trial were asked to complete two pre-examination questionnaires-(1) Life Orientation Test - Revised (LOT-R) assessing optimism and (2) bowel preparation questionnaire-and a post-examination questionnaire evaluating overall experience of CTC screening test. Items were analysed with chi-square and t test separately and pooled. RESULTS: LOT-R was completed by 529 (78%) of r-CTC and by 462 (75%) of f-CTC participants and bowel preparation questionnaire by 531 (79%) subjects in the r-CTC group and by 465 (76%) in the f-CTC group. Post-examination questionnaire was completed by 525 (78%) subjects in the r-CTC group and by 453 (74%) in the f-CTC group. LOT-R average score was not different between r-CTC (14.27 ± 3.66) and f-CTC (14.54 ± 3.35) (p = 0.22). In bowel preparation questionnaire, 88% of r-CTC subjects reported no preparation-related symptoms as compared to 70% of f-CTC subjects (p < 0.001). No interference of bowel preparation with daily activities was reported in 80% of subjects in the r-CTC group as compared to 53% of subjects in the f-CTC group (p < 0.001). In post-examination questionnaire, average scores for discomfort of the procedure were not significantly different between r-CTC (3.53 ± 0.04) and f-CTC (3.59 ± 0.04) groups (p = 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Reduced bowel preparation is better tolerated than full preparation for screening CT colonography. KEY POINTS: • Reduced bowel preparation is better tolerated than full preparation for screening CT colonography. • Procedure-related discomfort of screening CT colonography is not influenced by bowel preparation. • Males tolerate bowel preparation and CT colonography screening procedure better than females.

Associations between cervical, breast and colorectal cancer screening uptake, chronic diseases and health-related behaviours: Data from the Italian PASSI nationwide surveillance.

Screening programmes have been proposed as a privileged setting for health promotion interventions. We aim to assess the associations between behavioural risk factors, chronic conditions and diseases and cervical, breast and colorectal cancer screening uptake. Secondly, we aim to assess whether these associations are due to underlying differences in socioeconomic characteristics. In Italy, a random sample was interviewed by the PASSI surveillance (106,000 interviews) in 2014-2016. Screening uptake adjusted for age and gender alone and for age, gender and socioeconomic characteristics (educational attainment and self-reported economic difficulties) were estimated using multivariate Poisson regression models. Screening uptake was 79%, 73% and 45% for cervical (age 25-64), breast (women aged 50-69) and colorectal cancer (both sexes age 50-69), respectively. People with low consumption of vegetables and fruits and those with insufficient physical activity had lower uptake than people with healthy behaviours (20-22% and 8-15% lower, respectively), as did those obese and diabetic compared to healthier people (7-10% and 5-8% lower, respectively). Those with high-risk drinking behaviour, self-reported driving after drinking alcohol, and former smokers had higher screening uptake (3-7%, 3-6%, and 7-14% higher, respectively). Differences in uptake decreased after adjusting for socioeconomic characteristics, but trends were unvaried. In conclusion, screening uptake is negatively associated with unfavourable behaviours and health conditions that are also risk factors for breast and colorectal cancer incidence. Socioeconomic characteristics do not fully explain these differences. Health promotion interventions targeting diet and physical activity nested in screening programmes might miss part of the at-risk population.

[The inappropriateness in the use of female cancer screening tests in Italy: over- and under-utilization determinants]. / L'inappropriatezza nell'uso dei test di screening oncologici femminili in Italia: determinanti di sovra e sottoutilizzo.

OBJECTIVES: to identify the determinants of over and under-use of Pap test and mammography in the screening programme target population. DESIGN: cross-sectional study. SETTING E PARTICIPANTS: we used data from the National Health interview conducted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics in 2012-2013 obtaining nation-wide representative samples of the female resident population aged 25-64 years (No. 32,831; target age of Pap test) and 50-69 years (No. 16,459; target age of mammography). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: overall coverage: proportion of women in the target age with at least one test in lifetime; appropriate coverage: proportion of women reporting to have at least one or more tests following the first one with the recommended frequency (three and two years for Pap test and mammography, respectively); over-use: women reporting to repeat test at higher frequency; under-use: women reporting not having ever had a test or having test at longer intervals. For frequency outcomes, only women aged 28-64 years and 52-69 years were included for Pap test and mammography, respectively. RESULTS: 11.9% of women have Pap test at the recommended frequency, 48.5% at shorter intervals, and 19.6% at longer intervals than recommended, while 20.0% never had a Pap test at all (39.6% under-use). 41.1% of women have a mammography at the recommended interval, 18.4% at shorter intervals, and 20.2% at longer intervals, while 20.3% never had a mammography at all. For both tests, in the North-East higher appropriate coverage and less over-use are observed, while in the South more under-use is highlighted. Young, foreigners, single, less educated, and unoccupied women have, at the same time, more over- and under-use for Pap test. Foreigner women reporting economic difficulties and single women have more mammography over and under-use. CONCLUSIONS: Pap test and, in a minor measure, mammography over-use are relevant in Italy, while large part of the population is still not covered.

[Development of a conceptual model for interpretation of monitoring indicators of cancer screenings from the Italian National Prevention Plan]. / Sviluppo di un modello concettuale di riferimento per l'interpretazione degli indicatori di monitoraggio degli screening oncologici nel Piano nazionale della prevenzione.

OBJECTIVES: the Italian National Prevention Plan (PNP) posed the standard to be achieved by Italian Regions for the implementation of cervical, breast, and colorectal cancer screening: to invite all of the target populations and to increase the screening uptake up to 50%, 60%, and 50%, respectively, the standard defined by the Essential Levels of Care (LEA). Moreover, for cervical cancer screening, it requires the implementation of HPV-DNA test and, for breast cancer screening, the PNP demands for the definition of diagnostic and follow up pathways for high familial risk women. The PNP also set up a monitoring system to assess the impact of implemented policies. A conceptual model has been defined to facilitate interpretation of variation in outcome indicators. DESIGN: after a systematic review, the DPSEEA (Driving forces, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Actions) was identified as the more appropriate framework to assess the results of preventive policies. Factors for each component of the model were identified and indicators that allow measuring the changing of each of these factors were defined. RESULTS: among the "driving forces", the trust in the health care system and the social capital were included. The presence of opportunistic screening, the competing private clinical activity, the commitment of General Practitioners and "medical" leaders, the attitude to cooperation and to patients' involvement, and the level of agreement between the positions of scientific societies and the recommendations implemented in organized screening programmes were included in the "pressures". In "state", the availability of technological and human resources, the level of management skills and of accessibility were identified. The "exposure" was defined as the coverage of active invitation of the target population and the uptake of screening tests. The "exposure" factors influence the "effect", described as the impact on anticipation of cancer diagnosis, on disease incidence (for cervical and colorectal cancer) and prognosis. The changing in screening programs performance modifies the impact of invitation coverage and test uptake ("exposure"). CONCLUSIONS: through the DPSEEA framework, we set up a logical conceptual model, which includes implementable actions and the mechanisms through which these actions should impact on the "exposure" (invitation coverage and screening uptake) and on the screening performance (quality).

Volumetric breast density and risk of advanced cancers after a negative screening episode: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the association between volumetric breast density (BD) and risk of advanced cancers after a negative screening episode. METHODS: A cohort of 16,752 women aged 49-54 years at their first screening mammography in the Florence screening programme was followed for breast cancer (BC) incidence until the second screening round. Volumetric BD was measured using fully automated software. The cumulative incidence of advanced cancer after a negative screening episode (including stage II or more severe cancer during the screening interval - on average 28 months - and at the subsequent round) was calculated separately for Volpara density grade (VDG) categories. RESULTS: BC incidence gradually increased with the increas in BD: 3.7‰, 5.1‰, 5.4‰ and 9.1‰ in the VDG categories 1-4, respectively (p trend < 0.001). The risk of advanced cancers after a negative screening episode was 1.0‰, 1.3‰, 1.1‰, and 4.2‰ (p trend = 0.003). The highest BD category, compared with the other three together, has double the invasive BC risk (RR = 2.0; 95% CI 1.5-2.8) and almost fourfold risk of advanced cancer (RR = 3.8; 95% CI 1.8-8.0). CONCLUSION: BD has a strong impact on the risk of advanced cancers after a negative screening episode, the best early surrogate of BC mortality. Therefore, our results suggest that screening effectiveness is quite different among BD categories.

The efficacy of prostate-specific antigen screening: Impact of key components in the ERSPC and PLCO trials.

BACKGROUND: The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) demonstrated that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening significantly reduced prostate cancer mortality (rate ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.91). The US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) trial indicated no such reduction but had a wide 95% CI (rate ratio for prostate cancer mortality, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.87-1.36). Standard meta-analyses are unable to account for key differences between the trials that can impact the estimated effects of screening and the trials' point estimates. METHODS: The authors calibrated 2 microsimulation models to individual-level incidence and mortality data from 238,936 men participating in the ERSPC and PLCO trials. A cure parameter for the underlying efficacy of screening was estimated by the models separately for each trial. The authors changed step-by-step major known differences in trial settings, including enrollment and attendance patterns, screening intervals, PSA thresholds, biopsy receipt, control arm contamination, and primary treatment, to reflect a more ideal protocol situation and differences between the trials. RESULTS: Using the cure parameter estimated for the ERSPC, the models projected 19% to 21% and 6% to 8%, respectively, prostate cancer mortality reductions in the ERSPC and PLCO settings. Using this cure parameter, the models projected a reduction of 37% to 43% under annual screening with 100% attendance and biopsy compliance and no contamination. The cure parameter estimated for the PLCO trial was 0. CONCLUSIONS: The observed cancer mortality reduction in screening trials appears to be highly sensitive to trial protocol and practice settings. Accounting for these differences, the efficacy of PSA screening in the PLCO setting is not necessarily inconsistent with ERSPC results. Cancer 2018;124:1197-206. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Monitoring vaccine and non-vaccine HPV type prevalence in the post-vaccination era in women living in the Basilicata region, Italy.

BACKGROUND: A large free-of-charge quadrivalent HPV (qHPV) vaccination program, covering four cohorts annually (women 11, 14, 17 and 24 years), has been implemented in Basilicata since 2007. This study evaluated vaccine and non-vaccine HPV prevalence 5-7 years post-vaccination program implementation in vaccinated and unvaccinated women. METHODS: This population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in the public screening centers of the Local Health Unit in Matera between 2012 and 2014. Cervical samples were obtained for Pap and HPV testing (HC2, LiPA Extra® assay) and participants completed a sociodemographic and behavioral questionnaire. Detailed HPV vaccination status was retrieved from the official HPV vaccine registry. HPV prevalence was described overall, by type and vaccination status. The association between HPV type-detection and risk/protective factors was studied. Direct vaccine protection (qHPV vaccine effectiveness [VE]), cross-protection, and type-replacement were evaluated in cohorts eligible for vaccination, by analyzing HPV prevalence of vaccine and non-vaccine types according to vaccination status. RESULTS: Overall, 2793 women (18-50 years) were included, 1314 of them having been in birth cohorts eligible for the HPV vaccination program (18- to 30-year-old women at enrolment). Among the latter, qHPV vaccine uptake was 59% (at least one dose), with 94% completing the schedule; standardized qHPV type prevalence was 0.6% in vaccinated versus 5.5% in unvaccinated women (P <0.001); adjusted VE against vaccine type infections was 90% (95% CI: 73%-96%) for all fully vaccinated women and 100% (95% CI not calculable) in women vaccinated before sexual debut. No statistically significant difference in overall high-risk HPV, high-risk non-vaccine HPV, or any single non-vaccine type prevalence was observed between vaccinated and unvaccinated women. CONCLUSIONS: These results, conducted in a post-vaccine era, suggest a high qHPV VE and that a well-implemented catch-up vaccination program may be efficient in reducing vaccine-type infections in a real-world setting. No cross-protective effect or evidence of type-replacement was observed a few years after HPV vaccine introduction.

Reconciling the Effects of Screening on Prostate Cancer Mortality in the ERSPC and PLCO Trials.

BACKGROUND: The ERSPC (European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer) found that screening reduced prostate cancer mortality, but the PLCO (Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial) found no reduction. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether effects of screening on prostate cancer mortality relative to no screening differed between the ERSPC and PLCO. DESIGN: Cox regression of prostate cancer death in each trial group, adjusted for age and trial. Extended analyses accounted for increased incidence due to screening and diagnostic work-up in each group via mean lead times (MLTs), which were estimated empirically and using analytic or microsimulation models. SETTING: Randomized controlled trials in Europe and the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Men aged 55 to 69 (ERSPC) or 55 to 74 (PLCO) years at randomization. INTERVENTION: Prostate cancer screening. MEASUREMENTS: Prostate cancer incidence and survival from randomization; prostate cancer incidence in the United States before screening began. RESULTS: Estimated MLTs were similar in the ERSPC and PLCO intervention groups but were longer in the PLCO control group than the ERSPC control group. Extended analyses found no evidence that effects of screening differed between trials (P = 0.37 to 0.47 [range across MLT estimation approaches]) but strong evidence that benefit increased with MLT (P = 0.0027 to 0.0032). Screening was estimated to confer a 7% to 9% reduction in the risk for prostate cancer death per year of MLT. This translated into estimates of 25% to 31% and 27% to 32% lower risk for prostate cancer death with screening as performed in the ERSPC and PLCO intervention groups, respectively, compared with no screening. LIMITATION: The MLT is a simple metric of screening and diagnostic work-up. CONCLUSION: After differences in implementation and settings are accounted for, the ERSPC and PLCO provide compatible evidence that screening reduces prostate cancer mortality. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute.

Detection rate and predictive factors of sessile serrated polyps in an organised colorectal cancer screening programme with immunochemical faecal occult blood test: the EQuIPE study (Evaluating Quality Indicators of the Performance of Endoscopy).

OBJECTIVES: To assess detection rate and predictive factors of sessile serrated polyps (SSPs) in organised colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programmes based on the faecal immunochemical test (FIT). DESIGN: Data from a case series of colonoscopies of FIT-positive subjects were provided by 44 Italian CRC screening programmes. Data on screening history, endoscopic procedure and histology results, and additional information on the endoscopy centre and the endoscopists were collected, including the age-standardised and sex-standardised adenoma detection rate (ADR) of the individual endoscopists. The SSP detection rate (SSP-DR) was assessed for the study population. To identify SSP-predictive factors, multilevel analyses were performed according to patient/centre/endoscopist characteristics. RESULTS: We analysed 72 021 colonoscopies, of which 1295 presented with at least one SSP (SSP-DR 1.8%; 95% CI 1.7% to 1.9%). At the per-patient level, SSP-DR was associated with males (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.17 to 1.54) and caecal intubation (OR 3.75; 95% CI 2.22 to 6.34), but not with the FIT round. The presence of at least one advanced adenoma was more frequent among subjects with SSPs than those without (OR 2.08; 95% CI 1.86 to 2.33). At the per-endoscopist level, SSP-DR was associated with ADR (third vs first ADR quartile: OR 1.55; 95% CI 1.03 to 2.35; fourth vs first quartile: OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.24 to 2.90). CONCLUSION: The low prevalence of SSPs and the lack of association with the FIT round argue against SSP as a suitable target for FIT-based organised programmes. Strict association of SSP-DR with the key colonoscopy quality indicators, namely caecal intubation rate and high ADR further marginalises the need for SSP-specific quality indicators in FIT-based programmes.

Impact of cause of death adjudication on the results of the European prostate cancer screening trial.

BACKGROUND: The European Randomised Study of Prostate Cancer Screening has shown a 21% relative reduction in prostate cancer mortality at 13 years. The causes of death can be misattributed, particularly in elderly men with multiple comorbidities, and therefore accurate assessment of the underlying cause of death is crucial for valid results. To address potential unreliability of end-point assessment, and its possible impact on mortality results, we analysed the study outcome adjudication data in six countries. METHODS: Latent class statistical models were formulated to compare the accuracy of individual adjudicators, and to assess whether accuracy differed between the trial arms. We used the model to assess whether correcting for adjudication inaccuracies might modify the study results. RESULTS: There was some heterogeneity in adjudication accuracy of causes of death, but no consistent differential accuracy by trial arm. Correcting the estimated screening effect for misclassification did not alter the estimated mortality effect of screening. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings were consistent with earlier reports on the European screening trial. Observer variation, while demonstrably present, is unlikely to have materially biased the main study results. A bias in assigning causes of death that might have explained the mortality reduction by screening can be effectively ruled out.