Risk of liver-related events in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) patients with fibrosis: A comparative analysis of various risk stratification criteria.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: International regulatory agencies recommend testing drug therapy for patients with noncirrhotic high-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) because they are at risk of liver-related events (LRE). We aimed to compare the risk of LRE in patients with MASLD stratified for F2-F4 fibrosis and MASH. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Overall, 1938 consecutive patients with biopsy-proven MASLD were enrolled. High-risk MASH was defined as MASH with F2-F4 fibrosis. LSM was measured by transient elastography. LRE were recorded during follow-up. Cox multivariate models were used to assess the association between high-risk MASH or F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH, of LSM (≥8 or ≥10 Kpa), and of AGILE 3+ with LRE. The diagnostic performance for the prediction of LRE was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves. The observed 5-year actuarial rate of LRE was 0.4%, 0.2%, 5.1%, and 6.6% in patients with F0-F1 fibrosis without MASH, F0-F1 fibrosis with MASH, F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH, and high-risk MASH, respectively. At multivariate Cox regression analysis using F0-F1 fibrosis without MASH as a reference, both F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH [adjusted HR (aHR) 9.96] and high-risk MASH (aHR 10.14) were associated with LRE. In the 1074 patients with available LSM, LSM ≥ 10 kPa (aHR 6.31) or AGILE 3+ > 0.67 (aHR 27.45) independently predicted the development of LRE and had similarly acceptable 5-year area under the receiver operating characteristic to high-risk MASH and F2-F4 fibrosis (0.772, 0.818, 0.739, and 0.780, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of LRE is similar in patients with high-risk MASH and with F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH. The use of LSM ≥ 10 kPa or AGILE 3+ > 0.67 could be an accurate option to identify patients with MASLD worthy to be included in clinical trials.

Long-term liver-related outcomes and liver stiffness progression of statin usage in steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Statins have multiple benefits in patients with metabolic-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). AIM: To explore the effects of statins on the long-term risk of all-cause mortality, liver-related clinical events (LREs) and liver stiffness progression in patients with MASLD. METHODS: This cohort study collected data on patients with MASLD undergoing at least two vibration-controlled transient elastography examinations at 16 tertiary referral centres. Cox regression analysis was performed to examine the association between statin usage and long-term risk of all-cause mortality and LREs stratified by compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD): baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) of ≥10 kPa. Liver stiffness progression was defined as an LSM increase of ≥20% for cACLD and from <10 kPa to ≥10 or LSM for non-cACLD. Liver stiffness regression was defined as LSM reduction from ≥10 kPa to <10 or LSM decrease of ≥20% for cACLD. RESULTS: We followed up 7988 patients with baseline LSM 5.9 kPa (IQR 4.6-8.2) for a median of 4.6 years. At baseline, 40.5% of patients used statins, and cACLD was present in 17%. Statin usage was significantly associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR=0.233; 95% CI 0.127 to 0.426) and LREs (adjusted HR=0.380; 95% CI 0.268 to 0.539). Statin usage was also associated with lower liver stiffness progression rates in cACLD (HR=0.542; 95% CI 0.389 to 0.755) and non-cACLD (adjusted HR=0.450; 95% CI 0.342 to 0.592), but not with liver stiffness regression (adjusted HR=0.914; 95% CI 0.778 to 1.074). CONCLUSIONS: Statin usage was associated with a relatively lower long-term risk of all-cause mortality, LREs and liver stiffness progression in patients with MASLD.

AI-Safe-C Score: Assessing Liver-Related Event Risks in Non-Cirrhotic Patients after Successful Direct-Acting Antiviral Treatment.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have considerably improved chronic hepatitis C (HCV) treatment; however, post-sustained virological response (SVR) follow-up typically neglects the risk of liver-related events (LREs). This study introduces and validates artificial intelligence-safe score (AI-Safe-C score) to assess the risk of LREs in non-cirrhotic patients after successful DAA treatment. METHODS: The random survival forest model was trained to predict LREs in 913 non-cirrhotic HCV patients after SVR in Korea and was further tested in a combined cohort from Hong Kong and France (N = 1264). The model's performance was assessed using Harrell's C-index and the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: The AI-Safe-C score, which incorporated liver stiffness measurement (LSM), age, sex, and six other biochemical tests-with LSM being ranked as the most important among 9 clinical features-demonstrated a C-index of 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.82-0.90) in predicting LREs in an external validation cohort. It achieved 3- and 5-year LRE AUROCs of 0.88 (95%CI, 0.84-0.92) and 0.79 (95%CI, 0.71-0.87), respectively, and for hepatocellular carcinoma, a C-index of 0.87 (95%CI, 0.81-0.92) with 3- and 5-year AUROCs of 0.88 (95%CI, 0.84-0.93) and 0.82 (95%CI, 0.75-0.90), respectively. Using a cut-off of 0.7, the 5-year LRE rate within a high-risk group was between 3.2% and 6.2%, mirroring the incidence observed in individuals with advanced fibrosis, in stark contrast to the significantly lower incidence of 0.2% to 0.6% in a low-risk group. CONCLUSION: AI-Safe-C score is a useful tool for identifying patients without cirrhosis who are at higher risk of developing LREs. The post-SVR LSM, as integrated within the AI-Safe-C score, plays a critical role in predicting future LREs. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The AI-Safe-C score introduces a paradigm shift in the management of non-cirrhotic patients post-DAA treatment, a cohort traditionally not included in routine surveillance protocols for LREs. By accurately identifying a subgroup at a comparably high risk of LREs, akin to those with advanced fibrosis, this predictive model facilitates a strategic reallocation of surveillance and clinical resources.

Agile scores in MASLD and ALD: External validation and their utility in clinical algorithms.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Agile scores, including liver stiffness measurements (LSM) and routine clinical/laboratory biomarkers, have been developed for advanced fibrosis (F≥3) and cirrhosis (F4), respectively, in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). We independently validated the diagnostic accuracy of these scores in MASLD, alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) and chronic hepatitis B or C (CHB/C) and assessed them in clinical algorithms with FIB-4 and LSM. METHODS: We included 4,243 patients (MASLD: 912, ALD: 386, CHB: 597, CHC: 2,348) with LSM, liver biopsy and laboratory tests within 6 months. FIB-4, Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores were calculated. RESULTS: For F≥3, the diagnostic accuracy of Agile 3+ and LSM were similar in MASLD (AUC: 0.86 vs. 0.86, p = 0.831) and ALD (0.92 vs. 0.94, p = 0.123). For cirrhosis, Agile 4 was similar to LSM in MASLD (0.89 vs. 0.90, p = 0.412) and ALD (0.94 vs. 0.95, p = 0.513). Agile 3+/4 performed worse than LSM in CHB/C. Using predefined dual thresholds of 90% sensitivity/specificity, correct classification rates in MASLD were 66% vs. 61% using Agile 3+ vs. LS dual cut-offs and 71% vs. 67% in ALD, respectively. When using Agile 3+ or LSM as a second step after FIB-4 >1.3, correct classification rates were higher with Agile 3+ than LSM, both for MASLD (75% vs. 71%) and ALD (76% vs. 72%), with fewer indeterminate results. Positive agreement of LSM and Agile 3+/4 significantly increased the specificity of a diagnosis of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: Agile 3+ and Agile 4 have equal diagnostic accuracy with LSM in both MASLD and ALD but result in fewer indeterminate results. Sequential use of FIB-4 and Agile 3+/4 or concurrent Agile 3+/4 and LSM can be used to further optimize F≥3 diagnosis. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: As of today, it is accepted that there will be no single non-invasive test or an isolated cut-off for identifying patients with advanced chronic liver disease. Here, we confirmed that Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores are useful alternatives to simple liver stiffness measurement in diagnosing advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in steatotic liver disease, but they do not perform as well in chronic viral hepatitis. Agile scores can help optimize the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in a dual cut-off strategy by reducing the number of indeterminate results either alone or in a sequential strategy after FIB-4. The combination of Agile scores and liver stiffness measurement can further increase our confidence in a positive diagnosis of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. These novel combination strategies can be useful tools to predict the likelihood of advanced stages of liver disease with the highest possible accuracy in a secondary/tertiary healthcare setting.

Recurrent splanchnic and extrasplanchnic thrombotic events in patients with non-cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis associated with local factors.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: One-third of non-cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis (NCPVT) cases are associated with local factors. The risk of rethrombosis after anticoagulation withdrawal is unknown. We aimed to determine factors associated with new splanchnic or extrasplanchnic thrombotic events in this setting. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study including cases of recent NCPVT associated with local factors. High- and low-risk prothrombotic factors, prespecified according to RIPORT study criteria, were assessed. Univariate and multivariate Cox models assessed the influence of different variables on the occurrence of new thrombotic events. RESULTS: At baseline, 83/154 (53.9%) patients had at least one prothrombotic factor including 50 (32.5%) with a high-risk and 33 (21.4%) with a low-risk prothrombotic factor. Oestrogen-containing contraception was discontinued in all patients. During follow-up, 63/140 (45%) patients had at least one prothrombotic factor, including 47 (33.6%) with a high-risk and 16 (11.4%) with a low-risk prothrombotic factor. Seventeen new thrombotic events occurred after a median follow-up of 52 (IQR 14-62) (min-max 3.0-69.0) months. New thromboses were associated with high-risk factors (hazard ratio [HR] 3.817, 95% CI 1.303-11.180, p = 0.015), but were inversely related to recanalization (HR 0.222, 95% CI 0.078-0.635, p = 0.005) and anticoagulation (HR 0.976, 95% CI 0.956-0.995, p = 0.016). When a high-risk factor was present a new thrombotic event occurred in 7.4%, 14.6%, 14.6% and 28.8% of patients at 1, 3, 5 and 7 years under anticoagulants, respectively, compared to 21.2%, 21.2%, 58% and 58% without anticoagulants, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In cases of recent NCPVT associated with local factors, high-risk factors for thrombosis are associated with new thrombotic events. Permanent anticoagulation appears beneficial in this high-risk situation. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: In non-cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis (NCPVT) associated with local factors, systematic screening for prothrombotic factors is recommended, but the prevalence of the latter is not clearly established, and the risk of recurrent intra or extrasplanchnic thromboembolism is poorly described. Thus, interest in permanent anticoagulation remains. NCPVT associated with local factors is a matter of concern for hepatologists, gastroenterologists and digestive surgeons. Due to a lack of knowledge, practices are heterogeneous. Our findings highlight that systematic screening for prothrombotic factors in NCPVT is needed even when associated with local factors, as it may justify long-term anticoagulation for the prevention of new intra or extrasplanchnic thrombotic events in at least one-third of cases. The interest in long-term anticoagulation should be investigated prospectively in the absence of high-risk prothrombotic factors. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: NCT0536064.

High Diagnostic Value of Transient Elastography for Advanced Fibrosis and Cirrhosis in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis Delta.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver biopsy remains the gold standard for fibrosis staging in patients with chronic hepatitis delta (CHD). Here, we comparatively evaluated the performance of transient elastography (TE) and biomarkers for the diagnosis of liver fibrosis in patients with CHD. METHODS: A total of 230 HDV-infected RNA-positive patients from various centers who underwent liver biopsy and liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) using Fibroscan, within a period of 6 months maximum, were investigated retrospectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and Youden index were used to establish cutoff values of LSM. TE was compared with other noninvasive tests: aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, Fibrosis-4, and Delta-4 fibrosis scores. RESULTS: Histologic fibrosis stage distribution was: 20.4% for F0-F1; 27.0% for F2; 18.7% for F3; and 33.9% for F4. TE demonstrated good diagnostic performance for detecting cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis with an Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 and 0.86, which were significantly higher than those obtained with the other noninvasive tests (P = .004 and P < .001). With a cutoff value of >12 kPa for cirrhosis, the sensitivity was 70.5%, specificity was 86.2%, positive predictive value was 72.4%, negative predictive value was 85.1%, and accuracy was 80.9%. Using 10.4 kPa as the cutoff value for F3, the sensitivity was 70.2%, specificity was 83.5%, positive predictive value was 82.5%, negative predictive value was 71.7%, and accuracy was 76.5%. In 89% of patients with LSM ≤6.2 kPa, liver biopsy disclosed only absent or minimal fibrosis. CONCLUSION: TE demonstrated good diagnostic performance for advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with CHD. Advanced fibrosis is highly probable for LSM values ≥10 kPa. LSM values <6 kPa almost totally exclude significant fibrosis. Between 6 and 10 kPa, liver biopsy should be discussed.

A Liver Stiffness-Based Etiology-Independent Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores have modest accuracy, and most are specific to chronic hepatitis B infection. In this study, we developed and validated a liver stiffness-based machine learning algorithm (ML) for prediction and risk stratification of HCC in various chronic liver diseases (CLDs). METHODS: MLs were trained for prediction of HCC in 5155 adult patients with various CLDs in Korea and further tested in 2 prospective cohorts from Hong Kong (HK) (N = 2732) and Europe (N = 2384). Model performance was assessed according to Harrell's C-index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: We developed the SMART-HCC score, a liver stiffness-based ML HCC risk score, with liver stiffness measurement ranked as the most important among 9 clinical features. The Harrell's C-index of the SMART-HCC score in HK and Europe validation cohorts were 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.92) and 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.95), respectively. The area under ROC curves of the SMART-HCC score for HCC in 5 years was ≥0.89 in both validation cohorts. The performance of SMART-HCC score was significantly better than existing HCC risk scores including aMAP score, Toronto HCC risk index, and 7 hepatitis B-related risk scores. Using dual cutoffs of 0.043 and 0.080, the annual HCC incidence was 0.09%-0.11% for low-risk group and 2.54%-4.64% for high-risk group in the HK and Europe validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The SMART-HCC score is a useful machine learning-based tool for clinicians to stratify HCC risk in patients with CLDs.

acFibroMASH Index for the Diagnosis of Fibrotic MASH and Prediction of Liver-related Events: An International Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) and fibrotic MASH are significant health challenges. This multi-national study aimed to validate the acMASH index (including serum creatinine and aspartate aminotransferase concentrations) for MASH diagnosis and develop a new index (acFibroMASH) for non-invasively identifying fibrotic MASH and exploring its predictive value for liver-related events (LREs). METHODS: We analyzed data from 3004 individuals with biopsy-proven metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) across 29 Chinese and 9 international cohorts to validate the acMASH index and develop the acFibroMASH index. Additionally, we utilized the independent external data from a multi-national cohort of 9034 patients with MAFLD to examine associations between the acFibroMASH index and the risk of LREs. RESULTS: In the pooled global cohort, the acMASH index identified MASH with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.802 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.786-0.818). The acFibroMASH index (including the acMASH index plus liver stiffness measurement) accurately identified fibrotic MASH with an AUROC of 0.808 in the derivation cohort and 0.800 in the validation cohort. Notably, the AUROC for the acFibroMASH index was 0.835 (95% CI, 0.786-0.882), superior to that of the FAST score at 0.750 (95% CI, 0.693-0.800; P < .01) in predicting the 5-year risk of LREs. Patients with acFibroMASH >0.39 had a higher risk of LREs than those with acFibroMASH <0.15 (adjusted hazard ratio, 11.23; 95% CI, 3.98-31.66). CONCLUSIONS: This multi-ethnic study validates the acMASH index as a reliable, noninvasive test for identifying MASH. The newly proposed acFibroMASH index is a reliable test for identifying fibrotic MASH and predicting the risk of LREs.

Lean individuals with NAFLD have more severe liver disease and poorer clinical outcomes (NASH-CO Study).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The severity of liver injury and clinical outcomes in lean individuals with NAFLD is a subject of debate and very few studies have been performed in the general population. The aim of this study was to compare subject characteristics and mortality between lean and nonlean NAFLD in a community setting. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The study population included 169,303 participants from the nationwide Constances cohort. Subjects with excessive alcohol consumption, viral hepatitis, or other liver diseases were excluded and 137,206 subjects were analyzed. The diagnosis of NAFLD and fibrosis was performed using the Fatty Liver Index and the Forns Index. The median follow-up was 3.58 years. The prevalence of NAFLD was 5.3% (95% CI: 5.2-5.4) in lean subjects, while 16.3% (95% CI: 15.7-16.8) of NAFLD subjects were lean. Despite their better metabolic profile, the prevalence of advanced fibrosis was significantly higher in lean than in nonlean NAFLD (3.7% vs. 1.7%, respectively, p < 0.01). Among NAFLD subjects and after adjustment for demographics, metabolic risk factors and lifestyle, lean status was associated with advanced fibrosis (OR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.20-1.65, p = 0.005), an increased risk of liver-related events (adjusted HR=5.84, 95% CI: 4.03-8.46), chronic kidney disease (adjusted HR=2.49, 95% CI: 1.49-4.16), and overall mortality (adjusted HR=3.01, 95% CI: 2.21-4.11). Liver-related events and overall mortality were related to the severity of fibrosis, both in lean and nonlean NAFLD subjects, whatever the usual risk factors. CONCLUSION: This study in a large community-based cohort confirms that NAFLD in lean subjects is more severe for fibrosis, the progression of liver disease, chronic kidney disease, and overall mortality.

Geographical similarity and differences in the burden and genetic predisposition of NAFLD.

NAFLD has become a major public health problem for more than 2 decades with a growing prevalence in parallel with the epidemic of obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D). The disease burden of NAFLD differs across geographical regions and ethnicities. Variations in prevalence of metabolic diseases, extent of urban-rural divide, dietary habits, lifestyles, and the prevalence of NAFLD risk and protective alleles can contribute to such differences. The rise in NAFLD has led to a remarkable increase in the number of cases of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatic decompensation, and liver-related mortality related to NAFLD. Moreover, NAFLD is associated with multiple extrahepatic manifestations. Most of them are risk factors for the progression of liver fibrosis and thus worsen the prognosis of NAFLD. All these comorbidities and complications affect the quality of life in subjects with NAFLD. Given the huge and growing size of the population with NAFLD, it is expected that patients, healthcare systems, and the economy will suffer from the ongoing burden related to NAFLD. In this review, we examine the disease burden of NAFLD across geographical areas and ethnicities, together with the distribution of some well-known genetic variants for NAFLD. We also describe some special populations including patients with T2D, lean patients, the pediatric population, and patients with concomitant liver diseases. We discuss extrahepatic outcomes, patient-reported outcomes, and economic burden related to NAFLD.

Validation of the new 2021 EASL algorithm for the noninvasive diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) has recently proposed an algorithm for the diagnosis of advanced liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of this algorithm in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). APPROACH AND RESULTS: One thousand fifty-one patients with NAFLD, liver biopsy, and four noninvasive tests (NITs; Fibrosis-4 [FIB4], vibration controlled transient elastography [VCTE], FibroMeter, Fibrotest) were included. The enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score was available in 396 patients. A cohort of 230 patients from primary care/diabetes clinics had FIB4, VCTE, and ELF. Compared with the performance of single NITs, agreement between two NITs (FIB4 and VCTE, VCTE and patented serum tests) increased specificity and positive predictive value by 20%, thus justifying the sequential use proposed in the EASL algorithm. The FIB4/VCTE/FibroMeter and FIB4/VCTE/Fibrotest algorithms performed similarly, providing 85% diagnostic accuracy and a liver biopsy requirement rate of only 10%. The FIB4/VCTE/ELF algorithm performed similarly in the subgroup where ELF was available. Simulations of algorithm accuracies at different prevalence showed that positive predictive values rapidly increased, reaching a plateau above 75% starting at 15% prevalence. Negative predictive values remained higher than 90% up to 25% prevalence. The rate of liver biopsy requirement remained stable, increasing by only 5% between low and high prevalence settings. When the EASL algorithm was applied in the primary care/diabetes clinic cohort, liver biopsy requirement was only 3%, and the agreement among the three steps provided 75% positive predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: Our study validates the algorithm proposed by the EASL in its latest 2021 guidelines for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in the setting of NAFLD.

Noninvasive assessment of liver disease severity in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of simple, noninvasive tests (NITs) in NAFLD patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS AND RESULTS: This was an individual patient data meta-analysis of 1780 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and T2D. The index tests of interest were FIB-4, NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography, and AGILE 3+. The target conditions were advanced fibrosis, NASH, and fibrotic NASH(NASH plus F2-F4 fibrosis). The diagnostic performance of noninvasive tests. individually or in sequential combination, was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and by decision curve analysis. Comparison with 2278 NAFLD patients without T2D was also made. In NAFLD with T2D LSM and AGILE 3+ outperformed, both NFS and FIB-4 for advanced fibrosis (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve:LSM 0.82, AGILE 3+ 0.82, NFS 0.72, FIB-4 0.75, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index 0.68; p < 0.001 of LSM-based versus simple serum tests), with an uncertainty area of 12%-20%. The combination of serum-based with LSM-based tests for advanced fibrosis led to a reduction of 40%-60% in necessary LSM tests. Decision curve analysis showed that all scores had a modest net benefit for ruling out advanced fibrosis at the risk threshold of 5%-10% of missing advanced fibrosis. LSM and AGILE 3+ outperformed both NFS and FIB-4 for fibrotic NASH (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve:LSM 0.79, AGILE 3+ 0.77, NFS 0.71, FIB-4 0.71; p < 0.001 of LSM-based versus simple serum tests). All noninvasive scores were suboptimal for diagnosing NASH. CONCLUSIONS: LSM and AGILE 3+ individually or in low availability settings in sequential combination after FIB-4 or NFS have a similar good diagnostic accuracy for advanced fibrosis and an acceptable diagnostic accuracy for fibrotic NASH in NAFLD patients with T2D.

Liver disease in germline mutations of telomere-related genes: Prevalence, clinical, radiological, pathological features, outcome, and risk factors.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Germline mutations of telomere-related genes (TRG) induce multiorgan dysfunction, and liver-specific manifestations have not been clearly outlined. We aimed to describe TRG mutations-associated liver diseases. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Retrospective multicenter analysis of liver disease (transaminases > 30 IU/L and/or abnormal liver imaging) in patients with TRG mutations. Main measurements were characteristics, outcomes, and risk factors of liver disease in a TRG mutations cohort. The prevalence of liver disease was compared to a community-based control group (n = 1190) stratified for age and matched 1:3 for known risk factors of liver disease. Among 132 patients with TRG mutations, 95 (72%) had liver disease, with associated lung, blood, skin, rheumatological, and ophthalmological TRG diseases in 82%, 77%, 55%, 39%, and 30% of cases, respectively. Liver biopsy was performed in 52/95 patients, identifying porto-sinusoidal vascular disease in 48% and advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in 15%. After a follow-up of 21 months (12-54), ascites, hepato-pulmonary syndrome, variceal bleeding, and HCC occurred in 14%, 13%, 13%, and 2% of cases, respectively. Five-year liver transplantation-free survival was 69%. A FIB-4 score ≥ 3·25 and ≥1 risk factor for cirrhosis were associated with poor liver transplantation-free survival. Liver disease was more frequent in patients with TRG mutations than in the paired control group [80/396, (20%)], OR 12.9 (CI 95%: 7.8-21.3, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: TRG mutations significantly increase the risk of developing liver disease. Although symptoms may be mild, they may be associated with severe disease. Porto-sinusoidal vascular disease and cirrhosis were the most frequent lesions, suggesting that the mechanism of action is multifactorial.

Diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive tests to screen for at-risk MASH-An individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is a need to reduce the screen failure rate (SFR) in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) clinical trials (MASH+F2-3; MASH+F4) and identify people with high-risk MASH (MASH+F2-4) in clinical practice. We aimed to evaluate non-invasive tests (NITs) screening approaches for these target conditions. METHODS: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis for the performance of NITs against liver biopsy for MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4. Index tests were the FibroScan-AST (FAST) score, liver stiffness measured using vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), the fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) and the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and thresholds including those that achieved 34% SFR were reported. RESULTS: We included 2281 unique cases. The prevalence of MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4 was 31%, 24% and 7%, respectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-4 were .78, .75, .68 and .57 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-3 were .73, .67, .60, .58 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F4 were .79, .84, .81, .76 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. The sequential combination of FIB-4 and LSM-VCTE for the detection of MASH+F2-3 with threshold of .7 and 3.48, and 5.9 and 20 kPa achieved SFR of 67% and sensitivity of 60%, detecting 15 true positive cases from a theoretical group of 100 participants at the prevalence of 24%. CONCLUSIONS: Sequential combinations of NITs do not compromise diagnostic performance and may reduce resource utilisation through the need of fewer LSM-VCTE examinations.

Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography Scores to Predict Liver-Related Events in Steatotic Liver Disease.

Importance: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is currently the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. It is important to develop noninvasive tests to assess the disease severity and prognosis. Objective: To study the prognostic implications of baseline levels and dynamic changes of the vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE)-based scores developed for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (Agile 3+) and cirrhosis (Agile 4) in patients with MASLD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included data from a natural history cohort of patients with MASLD who underwent VCTE examination at 16 tertiary referral centers in the US, Europe, and Asia from February 2004 to January 2023, of which the data were collected prospectively at 14 centers. Eligible patients were adults aged at least 18 years with hepatic steatosis diagnosed by histologic methods (steatosis in ≥5% of hepatocytes) or imaging studies (ultrasonography, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, or controlled attenuation parameter ≥248 dB/m by VCTE). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was liver-related events (LREs), defined as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, or hepatorenal syndrome), liver transplant, and liver-related deaths. The Agile scores were compared with histologic and 8 other noninvasive tests. Results: A total of 16 603 patients underwent VCTE examination at baseline (mean [SD] age, 52.5 [13.7] years; 9600 [57.8%] were male). At a median follow-up of 51.7 (IQR, 25.2-85.2) months, 316 patients (1.9%) developed LREs. Both Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores classified fewer patients between the low and high cutoffs than most fibrosis scores and achieved the highest discriminatory power in predicting LREs (integrated area under the time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.89). A total of 10 920 patients (65.8%) had repeated VCTE examination at a median interval of 15 (IQR, 11.3-27.7) months and were included in the serial analysis. A total of 81.9% of patients (7208 of 8810) had stable Agile 3+ scores and 92.6% of patients (8163 of 8810) had stable Agile 4 scores (same risk categories at both assessments). The incidence of LREs was 0.6 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently low Agile 3+ scores and 30.1 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently high Agile 3+ scores. In patients with high Agile 3+ score at baseline, a decrease in the score by more than 20% was associated with substantial reduction in the risk of LREs. A similar trend was observed for the Agile 4 score, although it missed more LREs in the low-risk group. Conclusions and Relevance: Findings of this study suggest that single or serial Agile scores are highly accurate in predicting LREs in patients with MASLD, making them suitable alternatives to liver biopsy in routine clinical practice and in phase 2b and 3 clinical trials for steatohepatitis.

Enhanced diagnosis of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in individuals with NAFLD using FibroScan-based Agile scores.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Currently available non-invasive tests, including fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM by VCTE), are highly effective at excluding advanced fibrosis (AF) (F ≥3) or cirrhosis in people with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but only have moderate ability to rule-in these conditions. Our objective was to develop and validate two new scores (Agile 4 and Agile 3+) to identify cirrhosis or AF, respectively, with optimized positive predictive value and fewer indeterminate results, in individuals with NAFLD attending liver clinics. METHODS: This international study included seven adult cohorts with suspected NAFLD who underwent liver biopsy, LSM and blood sampling during routine clinical practice or screening for trials. The population was randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set, on which the best-fitting logistic regression model was built, and performance and goodness of fit were assessed, respectively. Furthermore, both scores were externally validated on two large cohorts. Cut-offs for high sensitivity and specificity were derived in the training set to rule-out and rule-in cirrhosis or AF and then tested in the validation set and compared to FIB-4 and LSM. RESULTS: Each score combined LSM, AST/ALT ratio, platelets, sex and diabetes status, as well as age for Agile 3+. Calibration plots for Agile 4 and Agile 3+ indicated satisfactory to excellent goodness of fit. Agile 4 and Agile 3+ outperformed FIB-4 and LSM in terms of AUROC, percentage of patients with indeterminate results and positive predictive value to rule-in cirrhosis or AF. CONCLUSIONS: The two novel non-invasive scores improve identification of cirrhosis or AF among individuals with NAFLD attending liver clinics and reduce the need for liver biopsy in this population. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Non-invasive tests currently used to identify patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, such as fibrosis-4 index and liver stiffness measurement by vibration-controlled transient elastography, have high negative predictive values but high false positive rates, while results are indeterminate for a large number of cases. This study provides scores that will help the clinician diagnose advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis. These new easy-to-implement scores will help liver specialists to better identify (1) patients who need more intensive follow-up, (2) patients who should be referred for inclusion in therapeutic trials, and (3) which patients should be treated with pharmacological agents when effective therapies are approved.

Hepatitis D double reflex testing of all hepatitis B carriers in low-HBV- and high-HBV/HDV-prevalence countries.

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection occurs as a coinfection with hepatitis B and increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis, and mortality compared to hepatitis B virus (HBV) monoinfection. Reliable estimates of the prevalence of HDV infection and disease burden are essential to formulate strategies to find coinfected individuals more effectively and efficiently. The global prevalence of HBV infections was estimated to be 262,240,000 in 2021. Only 1,994,000 of the HBV infections were newly diagnosed in 2021, with more than half of the new diagnoses made in China. Our initial estimates indicated a much lower prevalence of HDV antibody (anti-HDV) and HDV RNA positivity than previously reported in published studies. Accurate estimates of HDV prevalence are needed. The most effective method to generate estimates of the prevalence of anti-HDV and HDV RNA positivity and to find undiagnosed individuals at the national level is to implement double reflex testing. This requires anti-HDV testing of all hepatitis B surface antigen-positive individuals and HDV RNA testing of all anti-HDV-positive individuals. This strategy is manageable for healthcare systems since the number of newly diagnosed HBV cases is low. At the global level, a comprehensive HDV screening strategy would require only 1,994,000 HDV antibody tests and less than 89,000 HDV PCR tests. Double reflex testing is the preferred strategy in countries with a low prevalence of HBV and those with a high prevalence of both HBV and HDV. For example, in the European Union and North America only 35,000 and 22,000 cases, respectively, will require anti-HDV testing annually.

Point-of-Care Noninvasive Prediction of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Individual risk prediction of liver-related events (LRE) is needed for clinical assessment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. We aimed to provide point-of-care validated liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-based risk prediction models for the development of LRE in patients with NAFLD, focusing on selecting patients for clinical trials at risk of clinical events. METHODS: Two large multicenter cohorts were evaluated, 2638 NAFLD patients covering all LSM values as the derivation cohort and 679 more advanced patients as the validation cohort. We used Cox regression to develop and validate risk prediction models based on LSM alone, and the ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models for clinically significant portal hypertension. The main outcome of the study was the rate of LRE in the first 3 years after initial assessment. RESULTS: The 3 predictive models had similar performance in the derivation cohort with a very high discriminative value (c-statistic, 0.87-0.91). In the validation cohort, the LSM-LRE alone model had a significant inferior discrimination (c-statistic, 0.75) compared with the other 2 models, whereas the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model (0.81) was significantly better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model (0.79). In addition, the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model presented very good calibration in the validation cohort (integrated calibration index, 0.016), and was better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model. CONCLUSIONS: The ANTICIPATE-LRE models, and especially the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model, could be valuable validated clinical tools to individually assess the risk of LRE at 3 years in patients with NAFLD/NASH.

Impact of Type 2 Diabetes on the Accuracy of Noninvasive Tests of Liver Fibrosis With Resulting Clinical Implications.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Noninvasive tests (NITs) of liver fibrosis have been suggested to be less accurate in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We aimed to compare the accuracy of 6 NITs between patients with or without T2DM, explain any differences, and adapt diagnostic algorithms for clinical practice accordingly. METHODS: We included 1051 patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease with liver biopsy, blood fibrosis tests (Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score, FIB4, Fibrotest, FibroMeter), vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), and the combinatory elasto-blood test FibroMeterVCTE. The study endpoint was advanced fibrosis on liver biopsy. RESULTS: NIT areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were significantly lower in patients with T2DM, mostly because of a decrease in specificity. For FIB4, this decrease in specificity was only related to the higher age of patients with T2DM enrolled. For Fibrotest, FibroMeter, and FibroMeterVCTE, the decrease in specificity was related to age but also to higher alpha2-macroglobulin level, which is known to increase in T2DM. Sensitivity was unaffected by T2DM, but it masked a doubled raw number of false negatives because of the 2-fold higher prevalence of advanced fibrosis in that setting. The sequential algorithm FIB4-vibration-controlled transient elastography had 90.3% accuracy in patients without T2DM vs 79.0% in those with (P < .001). Algorithms using first-line specialized tests maintained a low rate of false negatives and false positives in T2DM. CONCLUSIONS: The decrease in NIT accuracy observed in T2DM is partly biased by the different characteristics of the groups studied, but also linked to T2DM itself through modification of the levels of some NIT biomarkers. Specialized tests should be used first-line to diagnose advanced liver fibrosis in T2DM.

Association between birth weight, preterm birth, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in a community-based cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The association between birth weight (BW) and metabolic outcomes has been described since the 1980s but NAFLD has been rarely studied. This study aimed to investigate the association between BW and NAFLD occurrence in adult subjects. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The study population consisted of participants from the French nationwide Constances cohort from 2012 to 2019. Participants with a history of chronic viral hepatitis or excessive alcohol consumption were excluded. Noninvasive diagnosis of NAFLD and fibrosis was performed using a combination of the Fatty Liver Index (FLI) and the Forns Index. The relationship between BW and NAFLD was analyzed with a sex-stratified logistic regression model adjusted for sociodemographic parameters, lifestyle, and birth term, whereas liver fibrosis was analyzed with a sex-stratified linear regression model. In total, 55,034 individuals with reliable BW were included (43% men, mean age: 38 years). NAFLD (FLI ≥ 60) was present in 5530 individuals (10%). Multivariate logistic regression showed a significant U-shaped relationship between BW and NAFLD, with no significant interaction with sex. A significant and slightly decreasing association was found between BW and Forns Index (ß = -0.05; p = 0.04). Premature birth (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.03-1.48 for birth between 33 and 37 weeks versus ≥ 37 weeks) was associated with NAFLD, with a significant direct effect of premature birth, and without an indirect effect of low BW in mediation analysis. Forns Index was not significantly higher in participants with preterm birth compared to full-term birth. CONCLUSIONS: This large prospective adult-based cohort confirms the relationship between BW and NAFLD occurrence.