A Comparison of Prognostic Scores (Mayo, UK-PBC, and GLOBE) in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Comparative data on scores that predict outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are scarce. We aimed to assess and compare the prognostic value of the Mayo Risk Score (MRS, 1989 and 1994), UK-PBC score, and GLOBE score in a large international cohort of patients with PBC. METHODS: Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from 7 centers participating in the GLOBAL PBC Study Group were included. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with concordance statistics at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Model for End-stage Liver Disease was included for comparison. Prediction accuracy was assessed by comparing predicted survival and actual survival in Kaplan-Meier analyses. RESULTS: A total of 1,100 ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC were included, with a mean (SD) age of 53.6 (12.0) years, of whom 1,003 (91%) were female. During a median follow-up of 7.6 (interquartile range 4.1-11.7) years, 42 patients underwent liver transplantation, and 127 patients died. At 1 year, the concordance statistic for Model for End-stage Liver Disease was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.72), 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) for the UK-PBC score, 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.81) for the MRS (1989 and 1994), and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84) for the GLOBE score. The GLOBE score showed superior discriminatory performance, but differences were not statistically different. For all scores, discriminatory performance increased in those with bilirubin >0.6 × ULN and advanced fibrosis estimated with Fibrosis-4. The predicted (median) minus observed 5-year transplant-free survival was +0.4% and +2.5% for the MRS (1989) and GLOBE score, respectively. DISCUSSION: All prognostic scores developed for PBC (GLOBE, UK-PBC, and MRS) demonstrated comparable discriminating performance for liver transplantation or death as well as good prediction accuracy.

Factors Associated With Progression and Outcomes of Early Stage Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients usually receive a diagnosis of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) at an early stage, based on biochemical analyses. We investigated the proportion of patients who progress to moderate or advanced PBC and factors associated with progression and patient survival. METHODS: We obtained data from 1615 patients (mean age, 55.4 y) with early stage PBC (based on their normal levels of albumin and bilirubin), collected at the time of initial evaluation or treatment, from the Global PBC Study Group database (comprising patients at 19 liver centers in North American and European countries). We collected data from health care evaluations on progression to moderate PBC (abnormal level of bilirubin or albumin) or advanced-stage PBC (abnormal level of both). The median follow-up time was 7.9 years. The composite end point was decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or death. RESULTS: Of the 1615 patients identified with early stage PBC, 904 developed moderate PBC and 201 developed advanced disease over the study period. The proportions of patients who transitioned to moderate PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years were 12.9%, 30.2%, and 45.8%. The proportions of these patients who then transitioned to advanced PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years later were 3.4%, 12.5%, and 16.0%, respectively. During the follow-up period, 236 patients had a clinical event. The proportions of patients with moderate PBC and event-free survival were 97.9%, 95.1%, and 91.5% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, and the proportions of patients with advanced PBC and event-free survival were 90.6%, 71.2%, and 58.3% at 1, 3, and 5 years later, respectively. Variables associated with transition from early to moderate PBC included baseline levels of bilirubin, albumin, and alkaline phosphatase; aspartate to alanine aminotransferase ratio; platelet count; and treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid. Transitions from early to moderate PBC and from moderate to advanced PBC were associated with higher probabilities of a clinical event (time-dependent hazard ratios, 3.0; 95% CI, 2.0-4.5; and 4.6; 95% CI, 3.5-6.2). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of patients with early stage PBC progress to a more severe stage within 5 years. Progression is associated with an increased risk of a clinical event, so surveillance is important for patients with early stage PBC.

Goals of Treatment for Improved Survival in Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Treatment Target Should Be Bilirubin Within the Normal Range and Normalization of Alkaline Phosphatase.

INTRODUCTION: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) are widely established as independent predictors of prognosis. Current treatment goals do not aim for normalization of surrogate markers because their association with survival has not been defined. METHODS: The patient cohort from the GLOBAL PBC Study Group was used, comprising of long-term follow-up data from European and North American centers. Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated and untreated patients with bilirubin levels ≤1 × upper limit of normal (ULN) at baseline or 1 year were included. The association of normal ALP with transplant-free survival was assessed in a subgroup with ALP ≤1.67 × ULN at 1 year. Optimal thresholds of bilirubin and ALP to predict liver transplantation (LT) or death were evaluated. RESULTS: There were 2,281 patients included in the time zero cohort and 2,555 patients in the 1-year cohort. The bilirubin threshold with the highest ability to predict LT or death at 1 year was 0.6 × ULN (hazard ratio 2.12, 95% CI 1.69-2.66, P < 0.001). The 10-year survival rates of patients with bilirubin ≤0.6 × ULN and >0.6 × ULN were 91.3% and 79.2%, respectively (P < 0.001). The risk for LT or death was stable below the bilirubin levels of 0.6 × ULN, yet increased beyond this threshold. Ursodeoxycholic acid-induced reduction in bilirubin below this threshold was associated with an 11% improvement in 10-year survival. Furthermore, ALP normalization was optimal, with 10-year survival rates of 93.2% in patients with ALP ≤ 1 × ULN and 86.1% in those with ALP 1.0-1.67 × ULN. DISCUSSION: Attaining bilirubin levels ≤0.6 × ULN or normal ALP are associated with the lowest risk for LT or death in patients with PBC. This has important implications for treatment targets.

The Yield and Safety of Screening Colonoscopy in Patients Evaluated for Liver Transplantation.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening with colonoscopy is commonly used in patients who are candidates for liver transplantation. We initiated this study to define the risk-benefit ratio of performing screening colonoscopy in this population. A retrospective observational study of all consecutive patients undergoing colonoscopy during pre-liver transplantation screening between 2004 and 2017 was conducted. Endoscopic and pathological findings and clinical events potentially related to the colonoscopy in the 30 days after the procedure were registered and compared with a 30-day inpatient control time frame. A total of 858 colonoscopies were performed in 808 patients (65% male; median age, 55 years [interquartile range (IQR), 47-62]; median model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, 15 [IQR, 11-18]). CRC was found in 2 patients (0.2%), and advanced adenomas were found in 44 patients (5.4%). The only independent risk factor for an advanced neoplasm was age (odds ratio, 1.072 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.031-1.115; P < 0.001). During the 30-day postprocedure period, 178 clinical events occurred in 128 patients compared with 101 clinical events in 72 patients in the control time frames (P < 0.001). After colonoscopy, there was a significantly increased risk for renal failure (P = 0.001) and gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding (P = 0.023). Presence of ascites and MELD score were identified as independent risk factors for acute renal failure and GI bleeding. During the study observation period, 53.5% of the screened population actually underwent liver transplantation. Conclusion: CRC screening in pre-liver transplantation patients is associated with a relatively low prevalence of CRC and an increased risk of postcolonoscopy complications such as acute renal failure and GI bleeding, especially in patients with advanced liver disease. Because the risk-benefit ratio of standard performance of a screening colonoscopy in this population appears questionable, alternative screening strategies should be considered.

Validation, clinical utility and limitations of the Amsterdam-Oxford model for primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recently the Amsterdam-Oxford model (AOM) was introduced as a prognostic model to assess the risk of death and/or liver transplantation (LT) in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). We aimed to validate and assess the utility of the AOM. METHODS: Clinical and laboratory data were collected from the time of PSC diagnosis until the last visit or time of LT or death. The AOM was calculated at yearly intervals following PSC diagnosis. Discriminatory performance was assessed by calculation of the C-statistic and prediction accuracy by comparing the predicted survival with the observed survival in Kaplan-Meier estimates. A grid search was performed to identify the most discriminatory AOM threshold. RESULTS: A total of 534 patients with PSC and a mean (SD) age of 39.2 (13.1) years were included. The diagnosis was large duct PSC in 466 (87%), PSC with features of autoimmune hepatitis in 52 (10%) and small-duct PSC in 16 (3%). During the median (IQR) follow-up of 7.8 (4.0-12.6) years, 167 patients underwent LT and 65 died. The median LT-free survival was 13.2 (11.8-14.7) years. The C-statistic of the AOM ranged from 0.67 at baseline to 0.75 at 5 years of follow-up. The difference between the predicted and observed survival ranged from -1.6% at 1 year to + 3.9% at 5 years of follow-up. Patients that developed AOM scores >2.0 were at significant risk of LT or death (time-dependent hazard ratio 4.09; 95% CI 2.99-5.61). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of patients with PSC, the AOM showed an adequate discriminative performance and good prediction accuracy at PSC diagnosis and during follow-up. This study further validates the AOM as a valuable risk stratification tool in PSC and extends its utility. LAY SUMMARY: In our study we assessed whether the Amsterdam-Oxford model (AOM) is able to correctly estimate the risk of liver transplantation or death in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). This model uses 7 objective and readily available variables to estimate prognosis for individual patients at the time of PSC diagnosis. The AOM may aid in patient counselling and timing of diagnostic procedures or therapeutic interventions for complications of liver disease. We confirm that the model works well at PSC diagnosis, but also when the AOM is recalculated at different timepoints during follow-up, greatly improving the applicability of the model in clinical practice and for individual patients.

Ursodeoxycholic acid therapy and liver transplant-free survival in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The clinical efficacy of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) remains subject to debate as definitive randomized controlled trials are lacking. We aimed to determine whether UDCA prolongs liver transplant (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC. METHODS: This international cohort study included patients from the Global PBC Study Group database, originating from 8 countries in Europe and North America. Both UDCA-treated and untreated patients were included. LT and death were assessed as a combined endpoint through Cox regression analyses, with inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW). RESULTS: In the 3,902 patients included, the mean (SD) age was 54.3 (11.9) years, 3,552 patients (94.0%) were female, 3,529 patients (90.4%) were treated with UDCA and 373 patients (9.6%) were not treated. The median (interquartile range) follow-up was 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. In total, 721 UDCA-treated patients and 145 untreated patients died or underwent LT. After IPTW, the 10-year cumulative LT-free survival was 79.7% (95% CI 78.1-81.2) among UDCA-treated patients and 60.7% (95% CI 58.2-63.4) among untreated patients (p <0.001). UDCA was associated with a statistically significant reduced risk of LT or death (hazard ratio 0.46, 95% CI 0.40-0.52; p <0.001). The hazard ratio remained statistically significant in all stages of disease. Patients classified as inadequate biochemical responders after 1 year of UDCA had a lower risk of LT or death than patients who were not treated (adjusted hazard ratio 0.56; 95% CI 0.45-0.69; p <0.001). CONCLUSION: The use of UDCA improves LT-free survival among patients with PBC, regardless of the disease stage and the observed biochemical response. These findings support UDCA as the current universal standard of care in PBC. LAY SUMMARY: In this international multicenter study of 3,902 patients with primary biliary cholangitis, we found that treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid is associated with prolonged liver transplant-free survival. This association was significant, irrespective of sex, age, or disease stage. The survival benefit remained statistically significant in patients with an incomplete biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid therapy.

Increased Mortality Among Patients With vs Without Cirrhosis and Autoimmune Hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There have been few reproducible studies of mortality in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) and its variants. We calculated mortality in a large national cohort of patients with AIH, with vs without cirrhosis, in the Netherlands. METHODS: We collected data from 449 patients with established AIH (77% female), from 6 academic and 10 non-academic hospitals in the Netherlands. We identified 29 patients with AIH and primary biliary cholangitis and 35 patients with AIH and primary sclerosing cholangitis (AIH-PSC). Mortality and liver transplantation data were assessed from August 1, 2006 through July 31, 2016. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated using age-, sex-, and calendar year-matched mortality for the general Dutch population. RESULTS: During the 10-year follow-up period, 60 patients (13%) died (mean age, 71 years; range, 33-94 years). Twenty-six causes of death were liver related (43%), whereas the others could not be attributed to liver disease. Patients with AIH and cirrhosis had significantly higher mortality than the general population (SMR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.2-3.4), whereas patients without cirrhosis did not (SMR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.8-1.8). Patients with AIH-PSC had the largest increase in mortality, compared to the general population (SMR, 4.7; 95% CI, 1.5-14.6), of all groups analyzed. Mortality in patients with AIH and primary biliary cholangitis was not greater than the general population. Four or more relapses per decade or not achieving remission was associated with an increase in liver-related death or liver transplantation. Nine patients underwent liver transplantation; 2 died from non-liver related causes. Four of 9 patients on the waitlist for transplantation died before receiving a donated liver. CONCLUSION: In an analysis of data from a large national cohort of patients with AIH, we found increased mortality of patients with cirrhosis, but not of patients without cirrhosis, compared to the general Dutch population. Survival was significantly reduced in patients with AIH and features of concurrent PSC.

Effects of Age and Sex of Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid and Transplant-free Survival in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) predominantly affects middle-aged women; there are few data on disease phenotypes and outcomes of PBC in men and younger patients. We investigated whether differences in sex and/or age at the start of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment are associated with response to therapy, based on biochemical markers, or differences in transplant-free survival. METHODS: We performed a longitudinal retrospective study of 4355 adults in the Global PBC Study cohort, collected from 17 centers across Europe and North America. Patients received a diagnosis of PBC from 1961 through 2014. We evaluated the effects of sex and age on response to UDCA treatment (based on GLOBE score) and transplant-free survival using logistic regression and Cox regression analyses, respectively. RESULTS: Male patients were older at the start of treatment (58.3±12.1 years vs 54.3±11.6 years for women; P<.0001) and had higher levels of bilirubin and lower circulating platelet counts (P<.0001). Younger patients (45 years or younger) had increased serum levels of transaminases than older patients (older than 45 years). Patients older than 45 years at time of treatment initiation had increased odds of a biochemical response to UDCA therapy, based on GLOBE score, compared to younger patients. The greatest odds of response to UDCA were observed in patients older than 65 years (odds ratio compared to younger patients 45 years or younger, 5.48; 95% CI, 3.92-7.67; P<.0001). Risk of liver transplant or death (compared to a general population matched for age, sex, and birth year) decreased significantly with advancing age: hazard ratio for patients 35 years or younger, 14.59 (95% CI, 9.66-22.02) vs hazard ratio for patients older than 65 years, 1.39 (95% CI, 1.23-1.57) (P<.0001). On multivariable analysis, sex was not independently associated with response or transplant-free survival. CONCLUSION: In longitudinal analysis of 4355 adults in the Global PBC Study, we associated patient age, but not sex, with response to UDCA treatment and transplant-free survival. Younger age at time of treatment initiation is associated with increased risk of treatment failure, liver transplant, and death.

Milder disease stage in patients with primary biliary cholangitis over a 44-year period: A changing natural history.

Changes over time in the presenting features and clinical course of patients with primary biliary cholangitis are poorly described. We sought to describe temporal trends in patient and disease characteristics over a 44-year period across a large international primary biliary cholangitis cohort of 4,805 patients diagnosed between 1970 and 2014, from 17 centers across Europe and North America. Patients were divided into five cohorts according to their year of diagnosis: 1970-1979 (n = 143), 1980-1989 (n = 858), 1990-1999 (n = 1,754), 2000-2009 (n = 1,815), and ≥2010 (n = 235). Age at diagnosis, disease stage, response to ursodeoxycholic acid, and clinical outcomes were compared. Mean age at diagnosis increased incrementally by 2-3 years per decade from 46.9 ± 10.1 years in the 1970s to 57.0 ± 12.1 years from 2010 onward (P < 0.001). The female to male ratio (9:1) and antimitochondrial antibody positivity (90%) were not significantly variable. The proportion of patients presenting with mild biochemical disease (according to Rotterdam staging) increased from 41.3% in the 1970s to 72.2% in the 1990s (P < 0.001) and remained relatively stable thereafter. Patients with a mild histological stage at diagnosis increased from 60.4% (1970-1989) to 76.5% (1990-2014) (P < 0.001). Correspondingly, response to ursodeoxycholic acid according to Paris-I criteria increased; 51.7% in the 1970s and 70.5% in the 1990s (P < 0.001). Recent decades were also characterized by lower decompensation rates (18.5% in the 1970s to 5.8% in the 2000s, P < 0.001) and higher 10-year transplant-free survival (48.4%, 68.7%, 79.7%, and 80.1% for each respective cohort; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In recent decades, a pattern of primary biliary cholangitis presentation consistent with an older age at diagnosis alongside reduced disease severity has been noted; the observed trends may be explained by an increase in routine testing of liver function and/or a changing environmental trigger. (Hepatology 2018;67:1920-1930).

Major Hepatic Complications in Ursodeoxycholic Acid-Treated Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Risk Factors and Time Trends in Incidence and Outcome.

OBJECTIVES: In this era of near universal ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), progression to cirrhosis still occurs in an important proportion of patients. The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of cirrhosis-associated complications in patients with PBC and assess risk factors and impact on survival. METHODS: Cohorts of UDCA-treated patients from 16 European and North-American liver centers were included. We used Cox proportional hazards assumptions and Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: During 8.1 years' median follow-up, 278 of 3,224 patients developed ascites, variceal bleeding, and/or encephalopathy (incidence rate of 9.7 cases/1,000 patient years). The overall cumulative incidence was 9.1% after 10 years of follow-up, but decreased over time to 5.8% after the year 2000. Earlier calendar year of diagnosis (P<0.001), high aspartate aminotransferase to platelets ratio index (APRI; P<0.001) and biochemical non-response (P<0.001) were independently associated with future complications. Patients with both biochemical non-response and an APRI >0.54 after 12 months of UDCA had a 10-year complication rate of 37.4%, as compared to 3.2% in biochemical responders with an APRI ≤0.54. The 10-year transplantation-free survival after a complication was 9% (time-dependent hazard ratio 21.5; 20.1-22.8). Prognosis after variceal bleeding has improved over time. CONCLUSIONS: In this large international cohort, up to 15% of UDCA-treated PBC patients developed major non-neoplastic, cirrhosis-associated hepatic complications within 15 years, but cumulative incidence has decreased over time. Biochemical non-response to UDCA and APRI were independent risk factors for these complications. Subsequent long-term outcome after complications is generally poor, but has improved over the past decades.

Bacterascites: A study of clinical features, microbiological findings, and clinical significance.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about bacterascites is limited and management guidelines are based on small patient series. The purpose of this study was to add further insight into the clinical characteristics, microbiological findings, and prognosis of patients diagnosed with bacterascites. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of patients with advanced chronic liver disease diagnosed with bacterascites and SBP between January 2003 and August 2016. RESULTS: In this study, 123 patients were included with 142 episodes of bacterascites. The median MELD score was 20 and clinical symptoms of infection were present in 78%. Empiric antibiotic treatment was initiated in 68%. In 26 untreated patients undergoing repeated paracentesis, 42% were diagnosed with either ongoing bacterascites or SBP. The presence of signs or symptoms of infection was not an independent predictor for mortality or spontaneous resolution of infection. The 1-month and 1-year mortality rates of the 123 patients studied, were 32% and 60%, respectively; these results were in line with data pertaining to the prognosis of SBP. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with bacterascites and SBP are highly comparable with respect to severity of liver disease and overall prognosis. If left untreated, bacterascites is likely to persist or to evolve to SBP in a significant proportion of patients. The results of this study support current guidelines regarding the treatment of ascitic fluid infection, but could not confirm the prognostic relevance of symptomatic disease at the time of diagnosis. We suggest that the threshold to initiate antibiotic treatment, in particular in cases with severely advanced liver disease, should be low.

Covered transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt versus endoscopic therapy + ß-blocker for prevention of variceal rebleeding.

UNLABELLED: Gastroesophageal variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, as well as a high rebleeding risk. Limited data are available on the role of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) with covered stents in patients receiving standard endoscopic, vasoactive, and antibiotic treatment. In this multicenter randomized trial, long-term endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) or glue injection + ß-blocker treatment was compared with TIPS placement in 72 patients with a first or second episode of gastric and/or esophageal variceal bleeding, after hemodynamic stabilization upon endoscopic, vasoactive, and antibiotic treatment. Randomization was stratified according to Child-Pugh score. Kaplan-Meier (event-free) survival estimates were used for the endpoints rebleeding, death, treatment failure, and hepatic encephalopathy. During a median follow-up of 23 months, 10 (29%) of 35 patients in the endoscopy + ß-blocker group, as compared to 0 of 37 (0%) patients in the TIPS group, developed variceal rebleeding (P = 0.001). Mortality (TIPS 32% vs. endoscopy 26%; P = 0.418) and treatment failure (TIPS 38% vs. endoscopy 34%; P = 0.685) did not differ between groups. Early hepatic encephalopathy (within 1 year) was significantly more frequent in the TIPS group (35% vs. 14%; P = 0.035), but during long-term follow-up this difference diminished (38% vs. 23%; P = 0.121). CONCLUSIONS: In unselected patients with cirrhosis, who underwent successful endoscopic hemostasis for variceal bleeding, covered TIPS was superior to EVL + ß-blocker for reduction of variceal rebleeding, but did not improve survival. TIPS was associated with higher rates of early hepatic encephalopathy.

Small-bowel Surveillance in Patients With Peutz-Jeghers Syndrome: Comparing Magnetic Resonance Enteroclysis and Double Balloon Enteroscopy.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Small-bowel surveillance with polypectomy of polyps ≥15 mm prevents complications in patients with Peutz-Jeghers syndrome (PJS). We aimed to compare magnetic resonance enteroclysis (MRE) and double balloon enteroscopy (DBE) for diagnostic yield of these polyps and for patient preference. MATERIALS AND METHODS: PJS patients prospectively underwent MRE followed by proximal DBE within 20 weeks. Endoscopists were blinded to the MRE results. We compared number of polyps ≥15 mm detected by MRE and DBE. Patients' perceptions of both procedures were assessed using questionnaires. RESULTS: Fifteen PJS patients (67% males, median age 47 y) underwent both MRE and DBE. Polyps ≥15 mm were identified by MRE and/or DBE in 12/15 (80%) patients. There was no significant difference in the detection of polyps ≥15 mm (38 by MRE vs. 50 by DBE, P=0.37). Sensitivity for these polyps was 62% (38/61) for MRE and 82% (50/61) for DBE. Patients' perceived shame and burden did not differ significantly between MRE and DBE. Patients reported significantly more pain during preparation for MRE than for DBE (moderate vs. no pain, P=0.02), although perceived pain during the procedures was comparable (both mild, P=0.89). For future small-bowel surveillance 10/13 (77%) patients preferred DBE over MRE (P=0.09). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that MRE and DBE have a comparable diagnostic yield of polyps ≥15 mm. However, DBE allows for direct intervention and was preferred over MRE by most patients in this series. Larger cohorts of PJS patients are needed to fully evaluate the diagnostic yield of DBE compared with other modalities.

The impact of infections on delisting patients from the liver transplantation waiting list.

Approximately 20% of the patients listed for liver transplantation die before transplantation can be accomplished. Understanding risk factors for waiting list mortality may help to improve survival and organ allocation. Infections are very common in patients with cirrhosis and are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. This study analysed the frequency and characteristics of infections in patients awaiting liver transplantation, identified risk factors for withdrawal from the waiting list and evaluated the impact of infections on the clinical outcome. A retrospective analysis of consecutive patients listed for liver transplantation in Rotterdam, the Netherlands from 2007 to 2014 was conducted. Infections occurred in 144 of 327 studied patients (44%). In this cohort, 23.4% of the patients on the liver transplantation waiting list were delisted or died before transplantation. Patients with an infection were 5.2 times more likely to become delisted than noninfected patients. In the 30 days after the first infection, patients were 33.8 times more likely to become delisted compared to noninfected patients. High age, high MELD score, refractory ascites and inappropriate antibiotic therapy were independent predictors for delisting due to infection. Infections occur frequently in patients on the liver transplantation waiting list. Emphasis on appropriate and timely antimicrobial therapy is required.

Stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in primary biliary cirrhosis: a multicentre international study.

OBJECTIVE: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an infrequent yet critical event in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC); however, predictive tools remain ill-defined. Our objective was to identify candidate risk factors for HCC development in patients with PBC. DESIGN: Risk factor analysis was performed in over 15 centres from North America and Europe spanning >40 years observation period using Cox proportional hazards assumptions, logistic regression, and Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: Of 4565 patients with PBC 123 developed HCC, yielding an incidence rate (IR) of 3.4 cases/1000 patient-years. HCC was significantly more common in men (p<0.0001), and on univariate analysis factors at PBC diagnosis associated with future HCC development were male sex (unadjusted HR 2.91, p<0.0001), elevated serum aspartate transaminase (HR 1.24, p<0.0001), advanced disease (HR 2.72, p=0.022), thrombocytopenia (HR 1.65, p<0.0001), and hepatic decompensation (HR 9.89, p<0.0001). As such, non-treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid itself was not associated with cancer development; however, 12-month stratification by biochemical non-response (Paris-I criteria) associated significantly with future risk of HCC (HR 4.52, p<0.0001; IR 6.6 vs 1.4, p<0.0001). Non-response predicted future risk in patients with early stage disease (IR 4.7 vs 1.2, p=0.005), advanced disease (HR 2.79, p=0.02; IR 11.2 vs 4.4, p=0.033), and when restricting the analysis to only male patients (HR 4.44, p<0.001; IR 18.2 vs 5.4, p<0.001). On multivariable analysis biochemical non-response remained the most significant factor predictive of future HCC risk (adjusted HR 3.44, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This uniquely powered, internationally representative cohort robustly demonstrates that 12-month biochemical non-response is associated with increased future risk of developing HCC in PBC. Such risk stratification is relevant to patient care and development of new therapies.

Development and Validation of a Scoring System to Predict Outcomes of Patients With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis Receiving Ursodeoxycholic Acid Therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Approaches to risk stratification for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) are limited, single-center based, and often dichotomous. We aimed to develop and validate a better model for determining prognoses of patients with PBC. METHODS: We performed an international, multicenter meta-analysis of 4119 patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid at liver centers in 8 European and North American countries. Patients were randomly assigned to derivation (n = 2488 [60%]) and validation cohorts (n = 1631 [40%]). A risk score (GLOBE score) to predict transplantation-free survival was developed and validated with univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses using clinical and biochemical variables obtained after 1 year of ursodeoxycholic acid therapy. Risk score outcomes were compared with the survival of age-, sex-, and calendar time-matched members of the general population. The prognostic ability of the GLOBE score was evaluated alongside those of the Barcelona, Paris-1, Rotterdam, Toronto, and Paris-2 criteria. RESULTS: Age (hazard ratio = 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.06; P < .0001); levels of bilirubin (hazard ratio = 2.56; 95% CI: 2.22-2.95; P < .0001), albumin (hazard ratio = 0.10; 95% CI: 0.05-0.24; P < .0001), and alkaline phosphatase (hazard ratio = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.18-1.67; P = .0002); and platelet count (hazard ratio/10 units decrease = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.96-0.99; P < .0001) were all independently associated with death or liver transplantation (C-statistic derivation, 0.81; 95% CI: 0.79-0.83, and validation cohort, 0.82; 95% CI: 0.79-0.84). Patients with risk scores >0.30 had significantly shorter times of transplant-free survival than matched healthy individuals (P < .0001). The GLOBE score identified patients who would survive for 5 years and 10 years (responders) with positive predictive values of 98% and 88%, respectively. Up to 22% and 21% of events and nonevents, respectively, 10 years after initiation of treatment were correctly reclassified in comparison with earlier proposed criteria. In subgroups of patients aged <45, 45-52, 52-58, 58-66, and ≥66 years, age-specific GLOBE-score thresholds beyond which survival significantly deviated from matched healthy individuals were -0.52, 0.01, 0.60, 1.01 and 1.69, respectively. Transplant-free survival could still be accurately calculated by the GLOBE score with laboratory values collected at 2-5 years after treatment. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated scoring system (the GLOBE score) to predict transplant-free survival of ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC. This score might be used to select strategies for treatment and care.

Testing for Anti-PBP Antibody Is Not Useful in Diagnosing Autoimmune Pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES: Autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) is a rare form of chronic pancreatitis, clinically mimicking pancreatic cancer. In 2009, a serological diagnostic test detecting antibodies against plasminogen-binding protein (PBP) of Helicobacter pylori was reported with outstanding test performances (NEJM 361:135). We aimed to validate these findings. METHODS: Between March 2007 and May 2011, sera were collected from consecutive patients presenting with type 1 AIP, pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), chronic pancreatitis (CP), primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), and healthy controls (HC) with or without antibodies against H. pylori. Serum antibody binding to synthetic PBP peptide was quantified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), using standard curves of custom-made PBP rabbit polyclonal antibodies. A synthetic Flag peptide (DYKDDDK), to which no antibodies are found in human serum, was included as negative control. RESULTS: High sensitivity of PBP peptide recognition was demonstrated by selective binding of PBP peptide over Flag peptide by PBP-immunized rabbit serum. Competition assays with PBP peptide validated the selectivity for antibodies recognizing this antigen. A total of 114 patients were subsequently tested: 34 AIP, 29 PDAC, 17 CP, 16 PSC, and 18 HCs (9 positive and 9 negative for H. pylori). No significant differences in detection of antibodies against the PBP peptide were found between different the patient groups and healthy controls. CONCLUSIONS: Using a sensitive and selective ELISA-based assay, we did not find increased serum antibodies against PBP peptide in AIP patients. PBP serum antibodies are therefore not a useful diagnostic tool to diagnose AIP.

Levels of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin are surrogate end points of outcomes of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis: an international follow-up study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Noninvasive surrogate end points of long-term outcomes of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) are needed to monitor disease progression and evaluate potential treatments. We performed a meta-analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies to evaluate whether patients' levels of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin correlate with their outcomes and can be used as surrogate end points. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis of data from 4845 patients included in 15 North American and European long-term follow-up cohort studies. Levels of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin were analyzed in different settings and subpopulations at different time points relative to the clinical end point (liver transplantation or death). RESULTS: Of the 4845 patients, 1118 reached a clinical end point. The median follow-up period was 7.3 years; 77% survived for 10 years after study enrollment. Levels of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin measured at study enrollment (baseline) and each year for 5 years were strongly associated with clinical outcomes (lower levels were associated with longer transplant-free survival). At 1 year after study enrollment, levels of alkaline phosphatase that were 2.0 times the upper limit of normal (ULN) best predicted patient outcome (C statistic, 0.71) but not significantly better than other thresholds. Of patients with alkaline phosphatase levels ≤ 2.0 times the ULN, 84% survived for 10 years compared with 62% of those with levels >2.0 times the ULN (P < .0001). Absolute levels of alkaline phosphatase 1 year after study enrollment predicted patient outcomes better than percentage change in level. One year after study enrollment, a bilirubin level 1.0 times the ULN best predicted patient transplant-free survival (C statistic, 0.79). Of patients with bilirubin levels ≤ 1.0 times the ULN, 86% survived for 10 years after study enrollment compared with 41% of those with levels >1.0 times the ULN (P < .0001). Combining levels of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin increased the ability to predict patient survival times. We confirmed the predictive value of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin levels in multiple subgroups, such as patients who had not received treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid, and at different time points after study enrollment. CONCLUSIONS: Levels of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin can predict outcomes (liver transplantation or death) of patients with PBC and might be used as surrogate end points in therapy trials.

Genome-wide association study identifies variants associated with autoimmune hepatitis type 1.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is an uncommon autoimmune liver disease of unknown etiology. We used a genome-wide approach to identify genetic variants that predispose individuals to AIH. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide association study of 649 adults in The Netherlands with AIH type 1 and 13,436 controls. Initial associations were further analyzed in an independent replication panel comprising 451 patients with AIH type 1 in Germany and 4103 controls. We also performed an association analysis in the discovery cohort using imputed genotypes of the major histocompatibility complex region. RESULTS: We associated AIH with a variant in the major histocompatibility complex region at rs2187668 (P = 1.5 × 10(-78)). Analysis of this variant in the discovery cohort identified HLA-DRB1*0301 (P = 5.3 × 10(-49)) as a primary susceptibility genotype and HLA-DRB1*0401 (P = 2.8 × 10(-18)) as a secondary susceptibility genotype. We also associated AIH with variants of SH2B3 (rs3184504, 12q24; P = 7.7 × 10(-8)) and CARD10 (rs6000782, 22q13.1; P = 3.0 × 10(-6)). In addition, strong inflation of association signal was found with single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with other immune-mediated diseases, including primary sclerosing cholangitis and primary biliary cirrhosis, but not with single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with other genetic traits. CONCLUSIONS: In a genome-wide association study, we associated AIH type 1 with variants in the major histocompatibility complex region, and identified variants of SH2B3and CARD10 as likely risk factors. These findings support a complex genetic basis for AIH pathogenesis and indicate that part of the genetic susceptibility overlaps with that for other immune-mediated liver diseases.