Annual dementia incidence and monetary burden attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other dementias currently represent the fifth most common cause of death in the world, according to the World Health Organization, with a projected future increase as the proportion of the elderly in the population is growing. Air pollution has emerged as a plausible risk factor for AD, but studies estimating dementia cases attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and resulting monetary estimates are lacking. METHODS: We used data on average population-weighted exposure to ambient PM2.5 for the entire population of Sweden above 30 years of age. To estimate the annual number of dementia cases attributable to air pollution in the Swedish population above 60 years of age, we used the latest concentration response functions (CRF) between PM2.5 exposure and dementia incidence, based on ten longitudinal cohort studies, for the population above 60 years of age. To estimate the monetary burden of attributable cases, we calculated total costs related to dementia, including direct and indirect lifetime costs and intangible costs by including quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost. Two different monetary valuations of QALYs in Sweden were used to estimate the monetary value of reduced quality-of-life from two different payer perspectives. RESULTS: The annual number of dementia cases attributable to PM2.5 exposure was estimated to be 820, which represents 5% of the annual dementia cases in Sweden. Direct and indirect lifetime average cost per dementia case was estimated to correspond € 213,000. A reduction of PM2.5 by 1 µg/m3 was estimated to yield 101 fewer cases of dementia incidences annually, resulting in an estimated monetary benefit ranging up to 0.01% of the Swedish GDP in 2019. CONCLUSION: This study estimated that 5% of annual dementia cases could be attributed to PM2.5 exposure, and that the resulting monetary burden is substantial. These findings suggest the need to consider airborne toxic pollutants associated with dementia incidence in public health policy decisions.

Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies.

Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11-40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6-14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050.

Calculation of the disease burden associated with environmental chemical exposures: application of toxicological information in health economic estimation.

Calculation of costs and the Burden of Disease (BoD) is useful in developing resource allocation and prioritization strategies in public and environmental health. While useful, the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) metric disregards subclinical dysfunctions, adheres to stringent causal criteria, and is hampered by gaps in environmental exposure data, especially from industrializing countries. For these reasons, a recently calculated environmental BoD of 5.18% of the total DALYs is likely underestimated. We combined and extended cost calculations for exposures to environmental chemicals, including neurotoxicants, air pollution, and endocrine disrupting chemicals, where sufficient data were available to determine dose-dependent adverse effects. Environmental exposure information allowed cost estimates for the U.S. and the EU, for OECD countries, though less comprehensive for industrializing countries. As a complement to these health economic estimations, we used attributable risk valuations from expert elicitations to as a third approach to assessing the environmental BoD. For comparison of the different estimates, we used country-specific monetary values of each DALY. The main limitation of DALY calculations is that they are available for few environmental chemicals and primarily based on mortality and impact and duration of clinical morbidity, while less serious conditions are mostly disregarded. Our economic estimates based on available exposure information and dose-response data on environmental risk factors need to be seen in conjunction with other assessments of the total cost for these environmental risk factors, as our estimate overlaps only slightly with the previously estimated environmental DALY costs and crude calculations relying on attributable risks for environmental risk factors. The three approaches complement one another and suggest that environmental chemical exposures contribute costs that may exceed 10% of the global domestic product and that current DALY calculations substantially underestimate the economic costs associated with preventable environmental risk factors. By including toxicological and epidemiological information and data on exposure distributions, more representative results can be obtained from utilizing health economic analyses of the adverse effects associated with environmental chemicals.

Comparison of methods for calculating the health costs of endocrine disrupters: a case study on triclosan.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic analysis is currently used in the Europe Union as part of the regulatory process in Regulation Registration, Evaluation and Authorisation of Chemicals (REACH), with the aim of assessing and managing risks from dangerous chemicals. The political impact of the socio-economic analysis is potentially high in the authorisation and restriction procedures, however, current socio-economic analysis dossiers submitted under REACH are very heterogeneous in terms of methodology used and quality. Furthermore, the economic literature is not very helpful for regulatory purposes, as most published calculations of health costs associated with chemical exposures use epidemiological studies as input data, but such studies are rarely available for most substances. The quasi-totality of the data used in the REACH dossiers comes from toxicological studies. METHODS: This paper assesses the use of the integrated probabilistic risk assessment, based on toxicological data, for the calculation of health costs associated with endocrine disrupting effects of triclosan. The results are compared with those obtained using the population attributable fraction, based on epidemiological data. RESULTS: The results based on the integrated probabilistic risk assessment indicated that 4894 men could have reproductive deficits based on the decreased vas deferens weights observed in rats, 0 cases of changed T3 levels, and 0 cases of girls with early pubertal development. The results obtained with the Population Attributable Fraction method showed 7,199,228 cases of obesity per year, 281,923 girls per year with early pubertal development and 88,957 to 303,759 cases per year with increased total T3 hormone levels. The economic costs associated with increased BMI due to TCS exposure could be calculated. Direct health costs were estimated at €5.8 billion per year. CONCLUSIONS: The two methods give very different results for the same effects. The choice of a toxicological-based or an epidemiological-based method in the socio-economic analysis will therefore significantly impact the estimated health costs and consequently the political risk management decision. Additional work should be done for understanding the reasons of these significant differences.

Underprotection of Unpredictable Statistical Lives Compared to Predictable Ones.

Existing ethical discussion considers the differences in care for identified versus statistical lives. However, there has been little attention to the different degrees of care that are taken for different kinds of statistical lives. Here we argue that for a given number of statistical lives at stake, there will sometimes be different, and usually greater, care taken to protect predictable statistical lives, in which the number of lives that will be lost can be predicted fairly accurately, than for unpredictable statistical lives, where the lives are at stake because of a low-probability event, such that most likely no one will be affected by the decision but with low probability some lives will be at stake. One reason for this difference is the statistical challenge of estimating low probabilities, and in particular the tendency of common approaches to underestimate these probabilities. Another is the existence of rational incentives to treat unpredictable risks as if the probabilities were lower than they are. Some of these factors apply outside the pure economic context, to institutions, individuals, and governments. We argue that there is no ethical reason to treat unpredictable statistical lives differently from predictable statistical lives. Moreover, lives that are unpredictable from the perspective of an individual agent may become predictable when aggregated to the level of a societal decision. Underprotection of unpredictable statistical lives is a form of market failure that may need to be corrected by altering regulation, introducing compulsory liability insurance, or other social policies.

Environmental Health Risks and Housing Values: Evidence from 1,600 Toxic Plant Openings and Closings.

Regulatory oversight of toxic emissions from industrial plants and understanding about these emissions' impacts are in their infancy. Applying a research design based on the openings and closings of 1,600 industrial plants to rich data on housing markets and infant health, we find that: toxic air emissions affect air quality only within 1 mile of the plant; plant openings lead to 11 percent declines in housing values within 0.5 mile or a loss of about $4.25 million for these households; and a plant's operation is associated with a roughly 3 percent increase in the probability of low birthweight within 1 mile.

Socioeconomic driving factors of nitrogen load from food consumption and preventive measures.

To diagnose environmental nitrogen (N) load from food consumption and to suggest preventive measures, this study identified relationships between nitrogen load from food consumption and driving factors by examining six representative countries and regions for the period 1970-2009 as an example. The logarithmic mean Divisia index technique was used to disassemble nitrogen load growth into four driving factors: population, economic activity, food intensity of the economy, and nitrogen content of food. In all study areas, increased economic activity was the main factor driving nitrogen load increase. The positive effect of population growth was relatively small but not negligible and changes in food intensity had a decreasing effect on nitrogen load. Changes in nitrogen content of food varied between areas. Broad strategies to reduce and mitigate nitrogen loading and decouple nitrogen load from economic growth in both developed and developing countries are suggested.

An optimal hierarchical decision model for a regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration.

This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level.

Comments on Ferreira and Moro (2011) 'Constructing genuine savings indicators for Ireland, 1995-2005'.

Ferreira and Moro's article is an important attempt to improve and expand the 'rough' World Bank genuine savings estimates of Ireland, based upon available official statistical sources of Ireland. Their main findings are that Irish genuine savings estimates are smaller than the Bank's estimates and - this may come as a surprise - even negative for a number of years. These results are primarily driven by their much larger estimates of environmental degradation. Unfortunately, when going over their calculations, I have come to doubt the main outcomes of their study due to two issues: CO2 damage values are overestimated by a factor 13 as a mistake is made in converting damage costs expressed in dollars per ton carbon towards dollars per ton CO2. Second, the implied average SO2 damage values per ton that they use are much higher than found in the literature.

Characterization of economic requirements for a "carbon-debt-free country".

In recent years, greenhouse gas emission controls that incorporate the supply chains of products and services, thereby emphasizing the role of consumers rather than producers, have been drawing increasing attention. A country's consumption-based emissions, including those due to global supply chains, reflect the total emissions on which the national economy relies. To design effective emissions control strategies there is therefore an urgent need for countries to elucidate the structural relationship between their domestic economy and emissions occurring through global supply chains. Here we consider the structural characteristics of consumption-based emissions in Japan, which in 2005 totaled 1675 Mt CO(2)eq. Outside the country the Japanese economy generated global emissions of 541 Mt CO(2)eq, 35.7% of which were UNFCCC Annex I emissions and 64.3% were non-Annex I and other emissions. This figure of 64.3% reveals that Japan is actually relying to a considerable degree on emissions that are subject to no international obligations. We identify key economic contributors to consumption-based emissions at the commodity level and specify items of household expenditure that are effective options for both financial savings and emissions reduction. We then discuss the importance of emissions control for evolving toward a "carbon-debt-free country".

Constructing genuine savings indicators for Ireland, 1995-2005.

In this paper we compute the genuine savings indicators for the Republic of Ireland over the period 1995-2005. We expand and improve existing World Bank's estimates by: a) using data collected from official Irish sources; b) employing the net present value method to assess resource depreciation; c) including external costs from SO(2) and NOx emissions; and d) estimating human capital accumulation using the returns to education. We also perform a sensitivity analysis to check the robustness of our estimates to different assumptions and parameters. Our estimates are consistently smaller than the World Bank's and negative in the first years of the period considered.

Bt cotton and farmer suicides in India: an evidence-based assessment.

Bt cotton is accused of being responsible for an increase of farmer suicides in India. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of evidence on Bt cotton and farmer suicides. Available data show no evidence of a 'resurgence' of farmer suicides. Moreover, Bt cotton technology has been very effective overall in India. Nevertheless, in specific districts and years, Bt cotton may have indirectly contributed to farmer indebtedness, leading to suicides, but its failure was mainly the result of the context or environment in which it was planted.

The effects of the environmental protection tax law on heavily polluting firms in China.

In 2016, China implemented an environmental protection tax (EPTL2016) to promote the transformation and upgrading of heavily polluting industries through tax leverage. Using panel data of China's listed companies, this study assesses the treatment effects of the EPTL2016 on the transformation and upgrading of heavily polluting firms by incorporating the intermediary role of the financial market. The empirical findings show that the EPTL2016 significantly reduced the innovation investment and productivity of heavily polluting firms but had no significant effect on fixed-asset investment. Additionally, EPTL2016 reduced the supply of bank loans to heavily polluting firms and increased the value of growth options for private enterprises and the efficiency of the supply of long-term loans to heavily polluting firms. Although the environmental policy of EPTL2016 benefits the transformation and upgrading of heavily polluting industries in many aspects, it generally hinders the industrial upgrading because of the reduction of bank loans.

A novel approach using hierarchical clustering to select industrial chemicals for environmental impact assessment.

We propose a four-step strategy, based on principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering, for selecting structurally dissimilar organic substances from a list of commercial, high volume production chemicals. The selection strategy also presents alternative structures with similar characteristics, so that practical aspects of future testing can be easily addressed. The selected compounds listed in this Article are intended for further study regarding their environmental impact and as potential pollutants.

Analysis of the Academic Literature on Environmental Valuation.

Environmental valuation refers to a variety of techniques to assign monetary values to environmental impacts, especially non-market impacts. It has experienced a steady growth in the number of publications on the subject in the last 30 years. We performed a search for papers containing the term "environmental valuation" in the title, abstract, or keywords. The search was conducted with an online literature search engine of the Web of Science (WoS) electronic databases. A search of this database revealed that the term "environmental valuation" appeared for the first time in 1987. Since then, a large number of studies have been published, including significant breakthroughs in theory and applications. In the present work, 661 publications were selected for a review of the literature on environmental valuation over the period 1987-2019. This paper analyzes the evolution of the leading methodologies and authors, highlights the preference for the choice experiment method over the contingent valuation method, and shows that relatively few papers have had a strong impact on the researchers in this area.

Endocrine-disrupting chemicals: economic, regulatory, and policy implications.

Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) substantially cost society as a result of increases in disease and disability but-unlike other toxicant classes such as carcinogens-have yet to be codified into regulations as a hazard category. This Series paper examines economic, regulatory, and policy approaches to limit human EDC exposures and describes potential improvements. In the EU, general principles for EDCs call for minimisation of human exposure, identification as substances of very high concern, and ban on use in pesticides. In the USA, screening and testing programmes are focused on oestrogenic EDCs exclusively, and regulation is strictly risk-based. Minimisation of human exposure is unlikely without a clear overarching definition for EDCs and relevant pre-marketing test requirements. We call for a multifaceted international programme (eg, modelled on the International Agency for Research in Cancer) to address the effects of EDCs on human health-an approach that would proactively identify hazards for subsequent regulation.

Erratum to "Integrated research on subsurface environments in Asian urban areas".

The RIHN project "Human impacts on urban subsurface environments" aims to suggest improved development plans of urban centers for human well-being. This will be done by examining reconstructed past changes in urban environments, and by developing integrated nature-social models. Subsurface environmental indicators are developed from the points of view of: (1) human activities; (2) climate change; and (3) character of urban development and social policies. Water, heat, and material environments and transport vectors are being evaluated by a number of different approaches. Some of these include investigating changes in groundwater resources using satellite observations, reconstructing effects of climate change and urbanization using subsurface thermal regimes, and evaluating past contamination patterns from preserved subsurface records. In this overview paper, we describe the current status of urbanization in Asia, subsurface water conditions, material and contaminant transport to surface waters by groundwater, and subsurface thermal anomalies due to the heat island effect. The rapid pace of urbanization in Asia requires that we develop a better understanding of how to deal with environmental impacts, both above and below ground.

Self-reported occupational skin contact with cleaning agents and the risk of disability pension.

BACKGROUND: Occupational skin diseases often affect the hands and can lead to consequences at both the individual and the social level. OBJECTIVES: To investigate and quantify the association between self-reported occupational skin contact with cleaning agents and subsequent transition to disability pension. METHODS: A sample of 8337 employees between 18 and 59 years of age participated in the Danish Work Environment Cohort Study in 1990, 1995, or 2000. They were followed up regarding disability pension until 2006 using the DREAM register on social transfer payments for all inhabitants in Denmark. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the impact of occupational exposure to cleaning agents on subsequent disability pension. RESULTS: Among women, 11% of the disability pension cases were attributable to exposure to cleaning agents and/or disinfectants. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests a potential for prevention of work-related disabilities among job groups exposed to cleaning agents.