Risk score for the prediction of severe obesity in pediatric craniopharyngiomas: relative to tumor origin.

ABSTRACT

BackgroundWe aimed to develop a risk score to improve the prediction of severe obesity in pediatric craniopharyngiomas (PCs).MethodsOverall, 612 consecutive PCs were prospectively enrolled from six hospitals. Data from 404 participants were analyzed. Participants from three of the six hospitals (n=290) were used to develop a risk score. External validation of the developed risk score was conducted using the participants from the other three hospitals (n=114). Sequential logistic regression was used to develop and validate the risk score. The c statistic and a calibration plot were used to assess the discrimination and calibration of the proposed risk score.ResultsThe overall frequency of severe obesity was 16.1% (65/404). The risk score employed a scale of 0-16 and demonstrated good discriminative power, with an optimism-corrected c statistic of 0.820. Similar results were obtained from external validation, with a c statistic of 0.821. The risk score showed good calibration, with no apparent over- or under-prediction observed in the calibration plots.ConclusionsThis novel risk score is a simple tool that can help clinicians assess the risk of severe obesity in PCs, thereby helping to plan and initiate the most appropriate disease management for these patients in time.