[Potential geographical distribution and changes of Artemisia ordosica in China under future climate change]. / 未来气候变化下黑沙蒿在中国的潜在地理分布及变迁.

ABSTRACT

Artemisia ordosica is a forerunner species of wind-break and sand-fixation in desert steppe in China, which plays an important role in ecosystem restoration and reconstruction. How-ever, it could influence human health. Based on 89 valid data of current distribution of A. ordosica in China and 19 typical climatic factors, the MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential distribution of A. ordosica in China under current and two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2050s and 2070s). The SDM toolbox of ArcGIS software was used to analyze the potential distribution range of A. ordosica and its changes in China. The importance of key climatic factors was evaluated by comprehensive contribution rate, Jackknife method, and response curve of environmental variables. The accuracy of model was tested and evaluated by area under the curve (AUC) of the test subject working characteristic (ROC). The results showed that the MaxEnt model worked well (AUC=0.980). which predicted that A. ordosica was mainly concentrated in and around Mu Us Sandy Land, consistent with the current actual distribution range. The distribution area of A. ordosica of potential high fitness under the future two scenarios decreased by 5.2%-26.8%, which was negatively affected by future climate change. Seasonal variation of temperature, mean precipitation in the coldest season, and mean annual temperature had the greatest impact. The core area of future potential distribution of A. ordosica in China was located in Mu Us Sandy Land, with a tendency for spreading to northeast (Jilin, Heilongjiang, Liaoning and some parts of Hebei).