Quantifying chromosomal instability from intratumoral karyotype diversity using agent-based modeling and Bayesian inference.

DNA contains all the information that cells need to function. The DNA inside cells is housed in structures called chromosomes, and most healthy human cells contain 23 pairs. When a cell divides, all chromosomes are copied so that each new cell gets a complete set. However, sometimes the process of separating chromosomes is faulty, and new cells may get incorrect numbers of chromosomes during cell division. Cancer cells frequently exhibit this behavior, which is called chromosomal instability', or CIN. Chromosomal instability affects many cancer cells with varying severity. In cancers with high chromosomal instability, the number of chromosomes may change almost every time the cells divide. These cancers are often the most aggressive and difficult to treat. Scientists can estimate chromosomal instability by counting differences in the number of chromosomes across many cells. However, many cells that are missing chromosomes die, resulting in inaccurate measures of chromosomal instability. To find a solution to this problem, Lynch et al. counted chromosomes in human cells with different levels of chromosomal instability and created a computer model to work out the relationship between chromosomal instability and chromosome number. The model could account for both living and dead cells, which gave more accurate results. Lynch et al. then confirmed the accuracy of their approach by using it on a group of cells treated with a chemotherapy drug that causes a known level of chromosomal instability. They also used existing data from breast and bowel cancer, which revealed that levels of chromosomal instability varied between one mistake per three to twenty cell divisions. Lower levels of chromosomal instability can be linked to a better prognosis for cancer patients, but it currently cannot be measured reliably. These results may help to reveal the causes of chromosomal instability and the role it has in cancer. If this method is successfully applied to patient samples, it could also improve our ability to predict how each cancer will progress and may lead to better treatments.