Preoperative prediction of disease-free survival in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients after R0 resection using contrast-enhanced CT and CA19-9.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the efficiency of a combination of preoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) in predicting disease-free survival (DFS) after R0 resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). METHODS: A total of 138 PDAC patients who underwent curative R0 resection were retrospectively enrolled and allocated chronologically to training (n = 91, January 2014-July 2019) and validation cohorts (n = 47, August 2019-December 2020). Using univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses, we constructed a preoperative clinicoradiographic model based on the combination of CECT features and serum CA19-9 concentrations, and validated it in the validation cohort. The prognostic performance was evaluated and compared with that of postoperative clinicopathological and tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) models. Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to verify the preoperative prognostic stratification performance of the proposed model. RESULTS: The preoperative clinicoradiographic model included five independent prognostic factors (tumor diameter on CECT > 4 cm, extrapancreatic organ infiltration, CECT-reported lymph node metastasis, peripheral enhancement, and preoperative CA19-9 levels > 180 U/mL). It better predicted DFS than did the postoperative clinicopathological (C-index, 0.802 vs. 0.787; p < 0.05) and TNM (C-index, 0.802 vs. 0.711; p < 0.001) models in the validation cohort. Low-risk patients had significantly better DFS than patients at the high-risk, defined by the model preoperatively (p < 0.001, training cohort; p < 0.01, validation cohort). CONCLUSIONS: The clinicoradiographic model, integrating preoperative CECT features and serum CA19-9 levels, helped preoperatively predict postsurgical DFS for PDAC and could facilitate clinical decision-making. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: We constructed a simple model integrating clinical and radiological features for the prediction of disease-free survival after curative R0 resection in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma; this novel model may facilitate preoperative identification of patients at high risk of recurrence and metastasis that may benefit from neoadjuvant treatments. KEY POINTS: • Existing clinicopathological predictors for prognosis in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients who underwent R0 resection can only be ascertained postoperatively and do not allow preoperative prediction. • We constructed a clinicoradiographic model, using preoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) features and preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) levels, and presented it as a nomogram. • The presented model can predict disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with PDAC better than can postoperative clinicopathological or tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) models.