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A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease.
Mahon, Michael B; Sack, Alexandra; Aleuy, O Alejandro; Barbera, Carly; Brown, Ethan; Buelow, Heather; Civitello, David J; Cohen, Jeremy M; de Wit, Luz A; Forstchen, Meghan; Halliday, Fletcher W; Heffernan, Patrick; Knutie, Sarah A; Korotasz, Alexis; Larson, Joanna G; Rumschlag, Samantha L; Selland, Emily; Shepack, Alexander; Vincent, Nitin; Rohr, Jason R.
Afiliação
  • Mahon MB; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Sack A; Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Aleuy OA; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Barbera C; Eck Institute of Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Brown E; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Buelow H; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Civitello DJ; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Cohen JM; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • de Wit LA; Department of Biology, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • Forstchen M; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
  • Halliday FW; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Heffernan P; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Knutie SA; Eck Institute of Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Korotasz A; Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA.
  • Larson JG; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Rumschlag SL; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Institute for Systems Genomics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA.
  • Selland E; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Shepack A; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Vincent N; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
  • Rohr JR; Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Nature ; 629(8013): 830-836, 2024 May.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38720068
ABSTRACT
Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, which are significantly correlated with socioeconomic, environmental and ecological factors1. Studies have shown that infectious disease risk is modified by changes to biodiversity2-6, climate change7-11, chemical pollution12-14, landscape transformations15-20 and species introductions21. However, it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. Here we amassed a dataset from the literature that contains 2,938 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,497 host-parasite combinations, including plant, animal and human hosts. We found that biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, climate change and introduced species are associated with increases in disease-related end points or harm, whereas urbanization is associated with decreases in disease end points. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation and forest fragmentation are comparatively unimportant or idiosyncratic as drivers of disease. Overall, these results are consistent across human and non-human diseases. Nevertheless, context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were found to be common. The findings uncovered by this meta-analysis should help target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, managing ecosystem health, and preventing biological invasions and biodiversity loss could help to reduce the burden of plant, animal and human diseases, especially when coupled with improvements to social and economic determinants of health.
Assuntos

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Mudança Climática / Doenças Transmissíveis / Biodiversidade / Poluição Ambiental / Espécies Introduzidas Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Estados Unidos

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Mudança Climática / Doenças Transmissíveis / Biodiversidade / Poluição Ambiental / Espécies Introduzidas Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Estados Unidos