ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: The objective is to estimate the economic benefits of trading zones as part of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control measures for limited duration outbreaks. DESIGN: The proposed trading zones for FMD at the state level are determined using multiple tools. Eleven individual incursion scenarios in six Australian states are simulated within the Australian Animal Disease Spread epidemiological model to identify the potential geographic extent of outbreaks, as well as the number of animals infected and the duration of outbreaks. The disease spread information is used to identify the boundaries of trading zones. The outbreak duration data are combined with historical export data to estimate the share of Australian exports that could be embargoed. The market impacts of the potential export embargoes including changes in equilibrium quantities, prices and revenue are simulated within the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences' AgEmissions partial equilibrium model of Australian agriculture. RESULTS: Results emphasize the importance of jurisdictional and outbreak characteristics in determining trading zones. Should Australia effectively implement trading zones at the state level in response to small FMD outbreaks, the potential reductions of embargoed exports lead to a reduction in estimated producer revenue losses compared with losses under a national embargo. Producer revenue losses are reduced between $3 billion and $9 billion estimated in present value terms over 10 years at a 7% discount rate. CONCLUSION: Economic analysis of the implications of trading zones identifies additional investments that would be of value to livestock industries.
Subject(s)
Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus , Foot-and-Mouth Disease , Animals , Australia/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Disease Outbreaks/veterinary , Foot-and-Mouth Disease/epidemiology , Foot-and-Mouth Disease/prevention & control , Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus/physiology , LivestockABSTRACT
BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Anemia affects the postoperative course of patients undergoing a major surgical procedure. However, it remains unclear whether anemia has a different impact on the long-term outcome of patients with malignant or benign pancreatic disease. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of patients undergoing pancreatic surgery for pancreatic malignancies or chronic pancreatitis was conducted between January 2012 and June 2018 at the University Hospital Dresden, Germany. The occurrence of preoperative anemia and the administration of pre-, intra-, and postoperative blood transfusions were correlated with postoperative complications and survival data by uni- and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: A total of 682 patients were included with 482 (70.7%) undergoing surgical procedures for pancreatic malignancies. Univariate regression analysis confirmed preoperative anemia as a risk factor for postoperative complications > grade 2 according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. Multivariate regression analyses indicated postoperative blood transfusion as an independent risk factor for postoperative complications in patients with a benign (OR 20.5; p value < 0.001) and a malignant pancreatic lesion (OR 4.7; p value < 0.01). Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed preoperative anemia and pre-, intra-, and postoperative blood transfusions as independent prognostic factors for shorter overall survival in benign and malignant patients (p value < 0.001-0.01). CONCLUSION: Preoperative anemia is a prevalent, independent, and adjustable factor in pancreatic surgery, which poses a significant risk for postoperative complications irrespective of the entity of the underlying disease. It should therefore be understood as an adjustable factor rather than an indicator of underlying disease severity.