Biological reinforcement learning simulation for natural enemy -host behavior: Exploring deep learning algorithms for population dynamics.

This study introduces a simulation of biological reinforcement learning to explore the behavior of natural enemies in the presence of host pests, aiming to analyze the population dynamics between natural enemies and insect pests within an ecological context. The simulation leverages on Q-learning, a reinforcement learning algorithm, to model the decision-making processes of both parasitoids/predators and pests, thereby assessing the impact of varying parasitism and predation rates on pest population growth. Simulation parameters, such as episode count, duration in months, steps, learning rate, and discount factor, were set arbitrarily. Environmental and reward matrices, representing climatic conditions, crop availability, and the rewards for different actions, were established for each month. Initial Q-tables for parasitoids/predators and pests, along with population arrays, were used to track population dynamics.•The simulation, illustrated through the Aphid-Ladybird beetle interaction case study over multiple episodes, includes a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the effects of different predation rates.•Findings reveal detailed population dynamics, phase relationships between predator and pest populations, and the significant influence of predation rates.•These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of ecological systems and inform potential pest management strategies.

A mathematical model for mapping the insecticide resistance trend in the Anopheles gambiae mosquito population under climate variability in Africa.

The control of arthropod disease vectors using chemical insecticides is vital in combating malaria, however the increasing insecticide resistance (IR) poses a challenge. Furthermore, climate variability affects mosquito population dynamics and subsequently IR propagation. We present a mathematical model to decipher the relationship between IR in Anopheles gambiae populations and climate variability. By adapting the susceptible-infected-resistant (SIR) framework and integrating temperature and rainfall data, our model examines the connection between mosquito dynamics, IR, and climate. Model validation using field data achieved 92% accuracy, and the sensitivity of model parameters on the transmission potential of IR was elucidated (e.g. µPRCC = 0.85958, p-value < 0.001). In this study, the integration of high-resolution covariates with the SIR model had a significant impact on the spatial and temporal variation of IR among mosquito populations across Africa. Importantly, we demonstrated a clear association between climatic variability and increased IR (width = [0-3.78], α = 0.05). Regions with high IR variability, such as western Africa, also had high malaria incidences thereby corroborating the World Health Organization Malaria Report 2021. More importantly, this study seeks to bolster global malaria combat strategies by highlighting potential IR 'hotspots' for targeted intervention by National malria control programmes.

A Fuzzy-Based Model to Predict the Spatio-Temporal Performance of the Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris Natural Enemy against Tuta absoluta under Climate Change.

The South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta, causes up to 100% tomato crop losses. As Tuta absoluta is non-native to African agroecologies and lacks efficient resident natural enemies, the microgastrine koinobiont solitary oligophagous larval endoparasitoid, Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris (Marsh) (Syn.: Apanteles gelechiidivoris Marsh) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) was released for classical biological control. This study elucidates the current and future spatio-temporal performance of D. gelechiidivoris against T. absoluta in tomato cropping systems using a fuzzy logic modelling approach. Specifically, the study considers the presence of the host and the host crop, as well as the parasitoid reproductive capacity, as key variables. Results show that the fuzzy algorithm predicted the performance of the parasitoid (in terms of net reproductive rate (R0)), with a low root mean square error (RMSE) value (<0.90) and a considerably high R2 coefficient (=0.98), accurately predicting the parasitoid performance over time and space. Under the current climatic scenario, the parasitoid is predicted to perform well in all regions throughout the year, except for the coastal region. Under the future climatic scenario, the performance of the parasitoid is projected to improve in all regions throughout the year. Overall, the model sheds light on the varying performance of the parasitoid across different regions of Kenya, and in different seasons, under both current and future climatic scenarios.