Population health outcomes in Nigeria compared with other west African countries, 1998-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Population-level health and mortality data are crucial for evidence-informed policy but scarce in Nigeria. To fill this gap, we undertook a comprehensive assessment of the burden of disease in Nigeria and compared outcomes to other west African countries. METHODS: In this systematic analysis, using data and results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we analysed patterns of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and health system coverage for Nigeria and 15 other west African countries by gender in 1998 and 2019. Estimates of all-age and age-standardised disability-adjusted life-years for 369 diseases and injuries and 87 risk factors are presented for Nigeria. Health expenditure per person and gross domestic product were extracted from the World Bank repository. FINDINGS: Between 1998 and 2019, life expectancy and HALE increased in Nigeria by 18% to 64·3 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 62·2-66·6), mortality reduced for all age groups for both male and female individuals, and health expenditure per person increased from the 11th to third highest in west Africa by 2018 (US$18·6 in 2001 to $83·75 in 2018). Nonetheless, relative outcomes remained poor; Nigeria ranked sixth in west Africa for age-standardised mortality, seventh for HALE, tenth for YLLs, 12th for health system coverage, and 14th for YLDs in 2019. Malaria (5176·3 YLLs per 100 000 people, 95% UI 2464·0-9591·1) and neonatal disorders (4818·8 YLLs per 100 000, 3865·9-6064·2) were the leading causes of YLLs in Nigeria in 2019. Nigeria had the fourth-highest under-five mortality rate for male individuals (2491·8 deaths per 100 000, 95% UI 1986·1-3140·1) and female individuals (2117·7 deaths per 100 000, 1756·7-2569·1), but among the lowest mortality for men older than 55 years. There was evidence of a growing non-communicable disease burden facing older Nigerians. INTERPRETATION: Health outcomes remain poor in Nigeria despite higher expenditure since 2001. Better outcomes in countries with equivalent or lower health expenditure suggest health system strengthening and targeted intervention to address unsafe water sources, poor sanitation, malnutrition, and exposure to air pollution could substantially improve population health. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Rapid Scale-up of an Antiretroviral Therapy Program Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic - Nine States, Nigeria, March 31, 2019-September 30, 2020.

In 2018, an estimated 1.8 million persons living in Nigeria had HIV infection (1.3% of the total population), including 1.1 million (64%) who were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) (1). Effective ART reduces morbidity and mortality rates among persons with HIV infection and prevents HIV transmission once viral load is suppressed to undetectable levels (2,3). In April 2019, through the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR),* CDC launched an 18-month ART Surge program in nine Nigerian states to rapidly increase the number of persons with HIV infection receiving ART. CDC analyzed programmatic data gathered during March 31, 2019-September 30, 2020, to describe the ART Surge program's progress on case finding, ART initiation, patient retention, and ART Surge program growth. Overall, the weekly number of newly identified persons with HIV infection who initiated ART increased approximately eightfold, from 587 (week ending May 4, 2019) to 5,329 (week ending September 26, 2020). The ART Surge program resulted in 208,202 more HIV-infected persons receiving PEPFAR-supported ART despite the COVID-19 pandemic (97,387 more persons during March 31, 2019-March 31, 2020 and an additional 110,815 persons during April 2020-September 2020). Comprehensive, data-guided, locally adapted interventions and the use of incident command structures can help increase the number of persons with HIV infection who receive ART, reducing HIV-related morbidity and mortality as well as decreasing HIV transmission.

Expanding access to HIV services during the COVID-19 pandemic-Nigeria, 2020.

BACKGROUND: To accelerate progress toward the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Nigeria country office (CDC Nigeria) initiated an Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) Surge in 2019 to identify and link 340,000 people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) to ART. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) threatened to interrupt ART Surge progress following the detection of the first case in Nigeria in February 2020. To overcome this disruption, CDC Nigeria designed and implemented adapted ART Surge strategies during February-September 2020. METHODS: Adapted ART Surge strategies focused on continuing expansion of HIV services while mitigating COVID-19 transmission. Key strategies included an intensified focus on community-based, rather than facility-based, HIV case-finding; immediate initiation of newly-diagnosed PLHIV on 3-month ART starter packs (first ART dispense of 3 months of ART); expansion of ART distribution through community refill sites; and broadened access to multi-month dispensing (MMD) (3-6 months ART) among PLHIV established in care. State-level weekly data reporting through an Excel-based dashboard and individual PLHIV-level data from the Nigeria National Data Repository facilitated program monitoring. RESULTS: During February-September 2020, the reported number of PLHIV initiating ART per month increased from 11,407 to 25,560, with the proportion found in the community increasing from 59 to 75%. The percentage of newly-identified PLHIV initiating ART with a 3-month ART starter pack increased from 60 to 98%. The percentage of on-time ART refill pick-ups increased from 89 to 100%. The percentage of PLHIV established in care receiving at least 3-month MMD increased from 77 to 93%. Among PLHIV initiating ART, 6-month retention increased from 74 to 92%. CONCLUSIONS: A rapid and flexible HIV program response, focused on reducing facility-based interactions while ensuring delivery of lifesaving ART, was critical in overcoming COVID-19-related service disruptions to expand access to HIV services in Nigeria during the first eight months of the pandemic. High retention on ART among PLHIV initiating treatment indicates immediate MMD in this population may be a sustainable practice. HIV program infrastructure can be leveraged and adapted to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Opportunities and challenges to integrating mental health into HIV programs in a low- and middle-income country: insights from the Nigeria implementation science Alliance.

BACKGROUND: In Nigeria, there is an estimated 1.9 million people living with HIV (PLHIV), 53% of whom utilize HIV care and services. With decreasing HIV-related deaths and increasing new infections, HIV with its associated comorbidities continue to be a key public health challenge in Nigeria. Untreated, comorbid mental disorders are a critical but potentially modifiable determinant of optimal HIV treatment outcomes. This study aimed to identify the challenges and opportunities related to integrating mental health care into existing HIV programs in Nigeria. METHOD: Attendees at the Nigeria Implementation Science Alliance (NISA)'s 2019 conference participated in nominal group technique (NGT) exercise informed by the "Exploration, Preparation, Implementation, and Sustainment (EPIS)" framework. The NGT process was conducted among the nominal groups in two major sessions of 30-min phases followed by a 30-min plenary session. Data analysis proceeded in four steps: transcription, collation, theming and content analysis. RESULTS: The two major theoretical themes from the study were - opportunities and challenges of integrating mental health treatment into HIV services. Three sub-themes emerged on opportunities: building on health care facilities for HIV services (screening, counseling, task-sharing monitoring and evaluation frameworks), utilizing existing human resources or workforce in HIV programs (in-service training and including mental health in education curriculum) and the role of social and cultural structures (leveraging existing community, traditional and faith-based infrastructures). Four sub-themes emerged for challenges: double burden of stigma and the problems of early detection (HIV and mental health stigma, lack of awareness), existing policy gaps and structural challenges (fragmented health system), limited human resources for mental health care in Nigeria (knowledge gap and burnout) and dearth of data/evidence for planning and action (research gaps). CONCLUSIONS: Potential for integrating treatments for mental disorders into HIV programs and services exist in Nigeria. These include opportunities for clinicians' training and capacity building as well as community partnerships. Multiple barriers and challenges such as stigma, policy and research gaps would need to be addressed to leverage these opportunities. Our findings serve as a useful guide for government agencies, policy makers and research organizations to address co-morbid mental disorders among PLHIV in Nigeria.

Performance and trend for quality of service in a large HIV/AIDS treatment program in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: As antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs expand access, there is an increase in burden to a healthcare system. These results are reduced provider-patient contact time and poor programmatic and patient outcomes. Quality management offers providers a standardized approach for addressing the appropriateness of care to be applied in resource-limited settings. This study aimed to determine the trend of performance on HIV/AIDS quality management indicators of health facilities providing ART over a period of 5 years. METHODS: The annual performance scores of quality of care (QoC) indicators of 31 health facilities providing ART was extracted from a database covering a period of 5 years (from October 2008 to September 2012). The data are percentages that indicate scores of each health facility assessed based on compliance to National ART guidelines categorized into several indicator domains. A Chi square statistic for the trend, as well as test for departure from the trend line was determined. The p value associated with each indicator provides the significant level for testing an alternative hypothesis that the rate of change over the period considered for that indicator does not equal to zero. The slope of the regression line also gives the magnitude of the rate of change for each indicator by healthcare level across the review period. RESULTS: Generally, performance trends showed improvement across most indicator domains. The highest improvement occurred for "3 month loss to follow-up" and "1 year no-visit", with scores declining from 37 to 3%, and 42% to 12% respectively. However, there was a sharp decline in performance between 2010 and 2012 in weight monitoring of patients (p < 0.01), adherence assessment to ARVs (p < 0.01) and hematocrit measurements (p = 0.01). The aggregate rate of change ß, as obtained from the slope of the trend line is highly significant (p < 0.01) for all the quality of care indicators considered, whether improving or declining. CONCLUSION: Periodic assessment to determine HIV/AIDS quality of care can guide rapid scale-up of services to achieve universal coverage in resource-limited settings. Determining trends to understand patterns is very useful for improving programmatic and patient outcomes.

Postal recruitment and consent obtainment from index cases of narcolepsy.

BACKGROUND: Access to research volunteers may be hampered by low numbers of cases and few eligible participants for rare diseases in clinical settings. METHODS: We recruited volunteers and obtained informed consent by mail from narcolepsy cases in a case-control study, and here in we report feasibility, response rate, timeliness and cost. We invited index cases into the study by mail through their care-giving physicians then mailed study information and consent forms to cases that indicated interest in the study. RESULTS: Of the 33 index cases invited, 15 (45.0%) expressed interest in the study, and of those, 14 (93.3%) returned their signed informed consents by mail. The median number of days from invitation to consent return was 39, interquartile range = 45, and the cost per consent obtained from the recruited subjects was $ 23.61. CONCLUSION: In this setting, postal recruitment for biomedical research on rare conditions is feasible and time and cost effective.

From intense rejection to advocacy: how Muslim clerics were engaged in a polio eradication initiative in Northern Nigeria.

Gambo Aliyu and colleagues describe an approach to eradicating polio in Northern Nigeria by engaging Muslim clerics in influencing community perceptions. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care digital chest-x-ray in HIV patients with pulmonary mycobacterial infections in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Chest-x-ray is routinely used in the diagnosis of smear negative tuberculosis (TB). This study assesses the incremental cost per true positive test of a point-of-care digital chest-x-ray, in the diagnosis of pulmonary mycobacterial infections among HIV patients with presumed tuberculosis undetected by smear microscopy. METHODS: Consecutive patients with clinical suspicion of pulmonary tuberculosis were serially tested for Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), their sputum examined for Acid Fast Bacilli then cultured in broth and solid media. Cultures characterized as tuberculous (M.tb) and non-tuberculous (NTM) mycobacteria by Hain assays were used as gold standards. A chest-x-ray was classified as: (1) consistent for TB, (2) not consistent for TB and (3) no pathology. RESULTS: Of the 1391 suspected cases enrolled, complete data were available for 952 (68%): 753/952 (79%) had negative smear tests while 150/753 (20%) had cultures positive for TB. Of those, 82/150 (55%) had chest-x-ray signs consistent with TB and 29/82 (35%) were positive for HIV. Within the co-infected, 9/29 (31%) had NTM infections. Among all suspects, the cost per positive case detected using smear microscopy test was $52.84; the overall incremental cost per positive case using chest-x-ray in smear negatives was $23.42, and in smear negative, HIV positive patients the cost was $15.77. CONCLUSION: Point-of-care chest-x-ray is a cost-effective diagnostic tool for smear negative HIV positive patients with pulmonary mycobacterial infection.

HIV risk behaviour, viraemia, and transmission across HIV cascade stages including low-level viremia: Analysis of 14 cross-sectional population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in sub-Saharan Africa.

As antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage for people living with HIV (PLHIV) increases, HIV programmes require up-to-date information about evolving HIV risk behaviour and transmission risk, including those with low-level viremia (LLV; >50 to ≤1000 copies/mL), to guide prevention priorities. We aimed to assess differences in sexual risk behaviours, distribution of viral load (VL) and proportion of transmission across PLHIV subgroups. We analysed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in 14 sub-Saharan African countries during 2015-2019. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of self-reported HIV high-risk behaviour (multiple partners and condomless sex) across cascade stages via generalised estimation equations. We modelled the proportions of transmission from each subgroup using relative self-reported sexual risk, a Hill function for transmission rate by VL, and proportions within cascade stages from surveys and UNAIDS country estimates for 2010-2020. Compared to PLHIV with undetectable VL (≤50 copies/mL), undiagnosed PLHIV (aPR women: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.08-1.52]; men: 1.61 [1.33-1.95]) and men diagnosed but untreated (2.06 [1.52-2.78]) were more likely to self-report high-risk sex. High-risk behaviour was not significantly associated with LLV. Mean VL was similar among undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and on ART but non-suppressed sub-groups. Across surveys, undiagnosed and diagnosed but untreated contributed most to transmission (40-91% and 1-41%, respectively), with less than 1% from those with LLV. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of transmission from individuals on ART but non-suppressed increased. In settings with high ART coverage, effective HIV testing, ART linkage, and retention remain priorities to reduce HIV transmission. Persons with LLV are an increasing share of PLHIV but their contribution to HIV transmission was small. Improving suppression among PLHIV on ART with VL ≥1000 copies/mL will become increasingly important.

HIV counseling and testing and access-to-care needs of populations most-at-risk for HIV in Nigeria.

Mobile HIV counseling and testing (mHCT) is an effective tool to access hard-to-reach most-at-risk populations (MARPs), but identifying which populations are not accessing services is often a challenge. We compared correlates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and awareness of HIV care services among populations tested through mHCT and at testing facilities in Nigeria. Participants in a cross-sectional study completed a questionnaire and HCT between May 2005 and March 2010. Of 27,586 total participants, 26.7% had been previously tested for HIV; among mHCT clients, 14.7% had previously been tested. HIV prevalence ranged from 6.6% among those tested through a facility to 50.4% among brothel-based sex workers tested by mHCT. Among mHCT participants aged 18-24, women were nine times more likely to be infected than men. Women aged 18-24 were also less likely than their male counterparts to know that there were medicines available to treat HIV (63.2 vs. 68.1%; p=0.03). After controlling for gender, age, and other risk factors, those with current genital ulcer disease were more likely to be HIV-infected (OR(mHCT)=1.65, 1.31-2.09; OR(facility)=1.71, 1.37-2.14), while those previously tested were less likely to be HIV-infected (OR(mHCT)=0.75, 0.64-0.88; OR(facility)=0.27, 0.24-0.31). There is an urgent need to promote strategies to identify those who are HIV-infected within MARPs, particularly young women, and to educate and inform them about availability of HIV testing and care services. mHCT, ideally coupled with sexually transmitted infection management, may help to ensure that MARPs access HIV prevention support, and if infected, access care, and treatment.

Characterization of acute HIV-1 infection in high-risk Nigerian populations.

BACKGROUND: Acute phase of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (AHI) may account for a significant proportion of HIV-1 transmission. We identified and characterized individuals in Nigeria with AHI. METHODS: Individuals were tested using a combination of rapid HIV testing in mobile units and laboratory-based specimen pooling for nucleic acid amplification testing. Genome sequences were characterized. A linear segmented regression model was fit to serial viral load (VL) measurements to characterize early VL profiles. RESULTS: Sixteen AHIs were identified from 28 655 persons screened. Specimens were genotyped: 7 (43.8%) were CRF02_AG, 6 (37.5%) were subtype G, 1 (6.3%) was CRF06_cpx, and 2 (12.5%) were unique recombinant forms. No antiretroviral resistance mutations were detected. The mean duration of high VL burden from peak to nadir was 76 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 58-93 days), and the mean rate of viremic control was -0.66 log(10) VL per month. The mean VL at set-point was 4.5 log(10) copies/mL (95% CI, 3.9-5.1 log(10) copies/mL). CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to characterize AHI among Nigerians identified as HIV infected before seroconversion who would be otherwise missed by conventional HIV testing. Infections by HIV subtypes in Nigeria exhibit long periods of high viral burden, which can contribute to increased transmissibility.

Individual and household factors associated with non-disclosure of positive HIV status in a population-based HIV serosurvey.

OBJECTIVES: Non-disclosure of positive HIV status in population-based surveys causes underestimation of national HIV diagnosis and biases inferences about engagement in the care continuum. This study investigated individual and household factors associated with HIV non-disclosure to survey interviewers in Nigeria. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a cross sectional population-based household HIV survey. METHODS: We analyzed data from adults aged 15-64 years who tested positive for HIV and had antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) in their blood from a nationally representative HIV sero-survey conducted in Nigeria in 2018. We considered ARV use as a proxy for knowledge of HIV diagnosis; thus, respondents who self-reported to be unaware of their HIV status were classified as non-disclosers. We estimated the associations between non-disclosure and various sociodemographic, clinical, and household characteristics using weighted logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 1266 respondents living with HIV who were taking ARVs, 503 (40%) did not disclose their HIV status to interviewers. In multivariable statistical analyses, the adjusted odds of non-disclosure were highest among respondents aged 15-24 years, those with less than a primary school education, and those who were the only person living with HIV in their household. CONCLUSIONS: Non-disclosure of positive HIV status to survey personnel is common among adults who are receiving treatment in Nigeria. These findings highlight the importance of validating self-reported HIV status in surveys using biomarkers of ARV use. Meanwhile, it is crucial to improve disclosure by strengthening interview procedures and tailoring strategies towards groups that are disproportionately likely to underreport HIV diagnoses.

Prevalence of HIV drug resistance in Nigeria: results from a cross-sectional, population-based survey of Nigerian adults with unsuppressed viral load.

BACKGROUND: HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) surveillance is an important tool to monitor threats to progress towards epidemic control. The characterization of HIVDR in Nigeria at the national level is needed to inform both clinical decisions and population-level HIV policy strategies. This study uses data obtained from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) to describe the prevalence and distribution of HIVDR in Nigeria. METHODS: NAIIS was a cross-sectional, population-based survey of households throughout Nigeria in 2018. NAIIS was designed to provide estimates of HIV prevalence and related health indicators from a nationally representative sample. The study population included participants aged 15-64 years who tested positive for HIV, had a viral load at least 1000 copies/ml, and had available HIV drug resistance genotypes. HIV isolates were genotyped to detect drug resistance mutations. Individual characteristics of study participants associated with HIVDR were identified using a weighted multivariable logistic regression model. RESULTS: Of 1355 respondents with available HIV genotypes, 293 (19%) had evidence of drug-resistant mutations (DRMs) that conferred resistance to at least one antiretroviral drug. The majority of DRMs observed conferred resistance to NNRTIs (17.6%) and NRTIs (11.2%). HIVDR was associated with being ART-experienced, longer duration on ART, and lower CD4+ count but not sociodemographic characteristics. CONCLUSION: The population level DRM prevalence in Nigeria was consistent with what would be expected in a mature HIV treatment landscape. The continued roll out of dolutegravir-anchored regimens should mitigate the impact of NNRTI resistance on population viral load suppression and progress towards epidemic control.

Willingness to pay for antiretroviral therapy, viral load, and premium services; A contingent valuation survey of people living with HIV in southern Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: With stagnating funding for HIV and AIDS control programs in Nigeria, alternative funding models for antiretroviral therapy (ART) including out of pocket payment are being considered to sustain momentum epidemic control targets. We assessed willingness to pay for ART related services, and factors associated with willingness to pay. METHODS: Between July and August 2019, we conducted a survey among people living with HIV (PLHIV) on ART in 3 states in southern Nigeria. Randomly sampled respondents on ART for at least 6 months, aged ≥ 18 years, able to communicate in English or pidgin English, and consenting to the survey were enrolled. Respondents were asked if they were willing to pay for clinical consultation, antiretroviral drugs (ARVs), viral load testing services and premium ART services (including fast track services). Respondents indicating willingness to pay for any of these services were asked the maximum amount they were willing to pay using contingent valuation methodology. We assessed the weighted proportions of PLHIV on ART willing to pay for ART and used survey-featured logistic regression measures to assess sociodemographic and ART related factors associated with willingness to pay for ART services. RESULTS: Overall, 1,598 PLHIV with a mean age of 39.03 years (standard deviation [SD]: 11.23 years), were included in this analysis. Of these, 65.8% (1,079), 73.9% (1,192), 61.0% (995) and 33.6% (472) were willing to pay for ART consultation, ARVs, viral load testing services and premium ART services respectively. The median maximum amount PLHIV were willing to pay for clinical consultation and for ARVs was NGN1,000 (USD equivalent of $2.78; interquartile range [IQR]: 500-2,000) respectively, and NGN2,500 (USD equivalent of $6.94; IQR: NGN1,000-5,000) and NGN2,000 (USD equivalent of $5.56; IQR: NGN1,000-3,000) for viral load testing and premium ART services respectively. Receiving ART in Lagos state, being employed and having a monthly income of NGN100,000 or more was associated with willingness to pay for the various ART services. CONCLUSION: We found generally high-level of willingness to pay for ART consultation, ARVs and viral load testing services but low willingness to pay for premium ART services among PLHIV on ART. The maximum amount PLHIV were willing to pay for various ART services fell short of benchmarks for alternative funding but can potentially supplement ART by funding differentiated service delivery models that require nominal amounts to facilitate person-centered differentiated service delivery models.

Mpox (monkeypox) risk and mortality associated with HIV infection: a national case-control study in Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Recent outbreaks of mpox are characterised by changes in the natural history of the disease, the demographic and clinical characteristics of the cases, and widening geographical distribution. We investigated the role of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) coinfection among cases in the re-emergence of mpox to inform national and global response. METHODS: We conducted a national descriptive and case-control study on cases in the 2017-2019 Nigerian mpox outbreak. Mpox cases were age, sex and geographical area matched each with two randomly selected controls from a representative national HIV/AIDS survey. Logistic regression was used to investigate the association between HIV infection and the risk of mpox acquisition and death. RESULTS: Among 204 suspected mpox cases, 86 were confirmed (median age 31 years (IQR 27-38 years), mostly males (61 cases, 70.9%). Three-fifths of mpox cases had serological evidence of one or more STIs with 27.9% (24/86) coinfected with HIV. The case fatality rate was 9.4% (8/86) and 20.8% (5/24) overall and in HIV positive cases respectively. Mpox cases were more likely to have HIV coinfection compared with an age, gender and geography-matched control group drawn from the general population (OR 45 (95% CI 6.1 to 333.5, p=0.002) and when compared with non mpox rash cases (7.29 (95% CI 2.6 to 20.5, p<0.0001)). HIV coinfection and young age were associated with mortality among mpox cases (aOR 13.66 (95% CI 1.88 to 98.95, p=0.010) and aOR 0.90 (0.82-0.97, p=0.008), respectively). CONCLUSION: HIV infection was associated with a higher risk of contracting and dying from mpox. Children are also at high risk of death. STIs in mpox cases may be suggestive of high-risk sexual behaviours among these individuals.

Effect of Test and Treat on clinical outcomes in Nigeria: A national retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: In Nigeria, results from the pilot of the Test and Treat strategy showed higher loss to follow up (LTFU) among people living with HIV compared to before its implementation. The aim of this evaluation was to assess the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation within 14 days on LTFU at 12 months and viral suppression. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected de-identified patient-level data hosted on the Nigeria National Data Repository from 1,007 facilities. The study population included people living with HIV age ≥15. We used multivariable Cox proportional frailty hazard models to assess time to LTFU comparing ART initiation strategy and multivariable log-binomial regression for viral suppression. RESULTS: Overall, 26,937 (38.13%) were LTFU at 12 months. Among individuals initiated within 14 days, 38.4% were LTFU by 12 months compared to 35.4% for individuals initiated >14 days (p<0.001). In the adjusted analysis, individuals who were initiated ≤14 days after HIV diagnosis had a higher hazard of being LTFU (aHR 1.15, 95% CI 1.10-1.20) than individuals initiated after 14 days of HIV diagnosis. Among individuals with viral load results, 86.2% were virally suppressed. The adjusted risk ratio for viral suppression among individuals who were initiated ≤14 days compared to >14 days was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: LTFU was higher among individuals who were initiated within 14 days compared to greater than 14 days after HIV diagnosis. There was no difference for viral suppression. The provision of early tailored interventions to support newly diagnosed people living may contribute to reducing LTFU.

An analysis of the uptake of anti-retroviral treatment among pregnant women in Nigeria from 2015 to 2020.

The percentage of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) positive pregnant women that receive anti-retroviral treatment in Nigeria is low and has been declining. Consequently, 14% of all new infections among children in 2020 occurred in Nigeria. A detailed analysis of available data was undertaken to generate evidence to inform remedial actions. Data from routine service delivery, national surveys and models were analyzed for the six-year period from 2015 to 2020. Numbers and percentages were calculated for antenatal registrations, HIV testing, HIV positive pregnant women and HIV positive pregnant women on antiretroviral treatment. The Mann-Kendall Trend Test was used to determine the presence of time trends when the p-value was less than 0.05. In 2020, only 35% of an estimated 7.8 million pregnant women received antenatal care at a health facility that provided and reported PMTCT services. Within these facilities, the percentage of HIV-positive pregnant women on anti-retroviral treatment from 71% in 2015 to 88% in 2020. However, declining HIV positivity rates at these antenatal clinics and an absence of expansion of PMTCT services to other pregnant women due to cost-efficiency considerations contributed to a progressive decline in national PMTCT coverage rates. To achieve elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, all pregnant women should be offered a HIV test, all who are HIV positive should be given anti-retroviral treatment, and all PMTCT services should be reported.

From Paper Files to Web-Based Application for Data-Driven Monitoring of HIV Programs: Nigeria's Journey to a National Data Repository for Decision-Making and Patient Care.

BACKGROUND: Timely and reliable data are crucial for clinical, epidemiologic, and program management decision making. Electronic health information systems provide platforms for managing large longitudinal patient records. Nigeria implemented the National Data Repository (NDR) to create a central data warehouse of all people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) while providing useful functionalities to aid decision making at different levels of program implementation. OBJECTIVE: We describe the Nigeria NDR and its development process, including its use for surveillance, research, and national HIV program monitoring toward achieving HIV epidemic control. METHODS: Stakeholder engagement meetings were held in 2013 to gather information on data elements and vocabulary standards for reporting patient-level information, technical infrastructure, human capacity requirements, and information flow. Findings from these meetings guided the development of the NDR. An implementation guide provided common terminologies and data reporting structures for data exchange between the NDR and the electronic medical record (EMR) systems. Data from the EMR were encoded in extensible markup language and sent to the NDR over secure hypertext transfer protocol after going through a series of validation processes. RESULTS: By June 30, 2021, the NDR had up-to-date records of 1,477,064 (94.4%) patients receiving HIV treatment across 1,985 health facilities, of which 1,266,512 (85.7%) patient records had fingerprint template data to support unique patient identification and record linkage to prevent registration of the same patient under different identities. Data from the NDR was used to support HIV program monitoring, case-based surveillance and production of products like the monthly lists of patients who have treatment interruptions and dashboards for monitoring HIV test and start. CONCLUSION: The NDR enabled the availability of reliable and timely data for surveillance, research, and HIV program monitoring to guide program improvements to accelerate progress toward epidemic control.

Development of a Quality Assurance Score for the Nigeria AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) Database: Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: In 2018, Nigeria implemented the world's largest HIV survey, the Nigeria AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS), with the overarching goal of obtaining more reliable metrics regarding the national scope of HIV epidemic control in Nigeria. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to (1) describe the processes involved in the development of a new database evaluation tool (Database Quality Assurance Score [dQAS]) and (2) assess the application of the dQAS in the evaluation and validation of the NAIIS database. METHODS: The dQAS tool was created using an online, electronic Delphi (e-Delphi) methodology with the assistance of expert review panelists. Thematic categories were developed to form superordinate categories that grouped themes together. Subordinate categories were then created that decomposed themes for more specificity. A validation score using dQAS was employed to assess the technical performance of the NAIIS database. RESULTS: The finalized dQAS tool was composed of 34 items, with a total score of 81. The tool had 2 sections: validation item section, which contains 5 subsections, and quality assessment score section, with a score of "1" for "Yes" to indicate that the performance measure item was present and "0" for "No" to indicate that the measure was absent. There were also additional scaling scores ranging from "0" to a maximum of "4" depending on the measure. The NAIIS database achieved 78 out of the maximum total score of 81, yielding an overall technical performance score of 96.3%, which placed it in the highest category denoted as "Exceptional." CONCLUSIONS: This study showed the feasibility of remote internet-based collaboration for the development of dQAS-a tool to assess the validity of a locally created database infrastructure for a resource-limited setting. Using dQAS, the NAIIS database was found to be valid, reliable, and a valuable source of data for future population-based, HIV-related studies.