Long-term HIV care outcomes under universal HIV treatment guidelines: A retrospective cohort study in 25 countries.

BACKGROUND: While national adoption of universal HIV treatment guidelines has led to improved, timely uptake of antiretroviral therapy (ART), longer-term care outcomes are understudied. There is little data from real-world service delivery settings on patient attrition, viral load (VL) monitoring, and viral suppression (VS) at 24 and 36 months after HIV treatment initiation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: For this retrospective cohort analysis, we used observational data from 25 countries in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium's Asia-Pacific, Central Africa, East Africa, Central/South America, and North America regions for patients who were ART naïve and aged ≥15 years at care enrollment between 24 months before and 12 months after national adoption of universal treatment guidelines, occurring 2012 to 2018. We estimated crude cumulative incidence of loss-to-clinic (CI-LTC) at 12, 24, and 36 months after enrollment among patients enrolling in care before and after guideline adoption using competing risks regression. Guideline change-associated hazard ratios of LTC at each time point after enrollment were estimated via cause-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models. Modified Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risks of retention, VL monitoring, and VS at 12, 24, and 36 months after ART initiation. There were 66,963 patients enrolling in HIV care at 109 clinics with ≥12 months of follow-up time after enrollment (46,484 [69.4%] enrolling before guideline adoption and 20,479 [30.6%] enrolling afterwards). More than half (54.9%) were females, and median age was 34 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 27 to 43). Mean follow-up time was 51 months (standard deviation: 17 months; range: 12, 110 months). Among patients enrolling before guideline adoption, crude CI-LTC was 23.8% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 23.4, 24.2) at 12 months, 31.0% (95% CI [30.6, 31.5]) at 24 months, and 37.2% (95% [CI 36.8, 37.7]) at 36 months after enrollment. Adjusting for sex, age group, enrollment CD4, clinic location and type, and country income level, enrolling in care and initiating ART after guideline adoption was associated with increased hazard of LTC at 12 months (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.25 [95% CI 1.08, 1.44]; p = 0.003); 24 months (aHR 1.38 [95% CI 1.19, 1.59]; p < .001); and 36 months (aHR 1.34 [95% CI 1.18, 1.53], p < .001) compared with enrollment before guideline adoption, with no before-after differences among patients with no record of ART initiation by end of follow-up. Among patients retained after ART initiation, VL monitoring was low, with marginal improvements associated with guideline adoption only at 12 months after ART initiation. Among those with VL monitoring, VS was high at each time point among patients enrolling before guideline adoption (86.0% to 88.8%) and afterwards (86.2% to 90.3%), with no substantive difference associated with guideline adoption. Study limitations include lags in and potential underascertainment of care outcomes in real-world service delivery data and potential lack of generalizability beyond IeDEA sites and regions included in this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, adoption of universal HIV treatment guidelines was associated with lower retention after ART initiation out to 36 months of follow-up, with little change in VL monitoring or VS among retained patients. Monitoring long-term HIV care outcomes remains critical to identify and address causes of attrition and gaps in HIV care quality.

The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Evaluation of mean corpuscular volume among anemic people with HIV in North America following ART initiation.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is common and associated with increased morbidity among people with HIV (PWH). Classification of anemia using the mean corpuscular volume (MCV) can help investigate the underlying causative factors of anemia. We characterize anemia using MCV among PWH receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), and identify the risk factors for normocytic, macrocytic, and microcytic anemias. METHODS: Including PWH with anemia (hemoglobin measure < 12.9 g/dL among men and < 11.9 g/dL among women) in the NA-ACCORD from 01/01/2007 to 12/31/2017, we estimated the annual distribution of normocytic (80-100 femtolitre (fL)), macrocytic (> 100 fL) or microcytic (< 80 fL) anemia based on the lowest hemoglobin within each year. Poisson regression models with robust variance and general estimating equations were used to estimate crude and adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk factors for macrocytic (vs. normocytic) and microcytic (vs. normocytic) anemia stratified by sex. RESULTS: Among 37,984 hemoglobin measurements that identified anemia in 14,590 PWH, 27,909 (74%) were normocytic, 4257 (11%) were microcytic, and 5818 (15%) were macrocytic. Of the anemic PWH included over the study period, 1910 (13%) experienced at least one measure of microcytic anemia and 3208 (22%) at least one measure of macrocytic anemia. Normocytic anemia was most common among both males and females, followed by microcytic among females and macrocytic among males. Over time, the proportion of anemic PWH who have macrocytosis decreased while microcytosis increased. Macrocytic (vs. normocytic) anemia is associated with increasing age and comorbidities. With increasing age, microcytic anemia decreased among females but not males. A greater proportion of PWH with normocytic anemia had CD4 counts ≤ 200 cells/mm3 and had recently initiated ART. CONCLUSION: In anemic PWH, normocytic anemia was most common. Over time macrocytic anemia decreased, and microcytic anemia increased irrespective of sex. Normocytic anemia is often due to chronic disease and may explain the greater risk for normocytic anemia among those with lower CD4 counts or recent ART initiation. Identified risk factors for type-specific anemias including sex, age, comorbidities, and HIV factors, can help inform targeted investigation into the underlying causes.

Access to healthcare among transgender women living with and without HIV in the United States: associations with gender minority stress and resilience factors.

BACKGROUND: Transgender women (TW) experience significant inequities in healthcare access and health disparities compared to cisgender populations. Access to non-transition related healthcare is understudied among TW. We aimed to assess the association between access to care and gender minority stress and resilience factors among TW living with and without HIV in eastern and southern United States. METHODS: This study was a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data drawn from a cohort of 1613 adult TW from the LITE Study. The cohort permitted participation through two modes: a site-based, technology-enhanced mode and an exclusively online (remote) mode. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses determined measurement models for gender minority stress, resilience, and healthcare access. Structural equation modeling was used to assess the relationships between these constructs. Models were evaluated within the overall sample and separately by mode and HIV status. RESULTS: Higher levels of gender minority stress, as measured by anticipated discrimination and non-affirmation were associated with decreased access to healthcare. Among TW living with HIV, higher levels of anticipated discrimination, non-affirmation, and social support were associated with decreased healthcare access. Among TW living without HIV in the site-based mode, resilience was positively associated with positive healthcare experiences and inversely associated with barriers to healthcare access. Among TW living without HIV in the online mode, anticipated discrimination was associated with barriers to healthcare access; resilience was positively associated with positive healthcare experiences and inversely associated with barriers to healthcare access. CONCLUSIONS: Gender minority stress was associated with increased barriers to healthcare access among TW in the US, regardless of HIV status. Resilience factors did not mediate this effect. Interventions aiming to increase healthcare access among TW can be aided by efforts to mitigate drivers of gender minority stress and improve patient experiences in healthcare facilities.

Moving Because of Unaffordable Housing and Disrupted Social Safety Net Access Among Children.

OBJECTIVES: To measure associations between residential moves because of unaffordable housing costs and disruptions in access to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program; the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children; and Medicaid in a health care-based sample of families with young children. METHODS: We used cross-sectional survey data on social safety net-eligible caregivers and children recruited into the Children's HealthWatch study from emergency departments and primary care clinics in Baltimore and Philadelphia (2011-2019). Children's HealthWatch measured residential moves (cost-driven and noncost-driven) in the past year and disruptions in safety net access. We used logistic regression to estimate associations between each type of move and disrupted access to social safety nets. RESULTS: Across 9344 children, cost-driven residential moves were associated with higher odds of disrupted access to at least 1 safety net program (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program; the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children; or Medicaid; adjusted odds ratio 1.44; 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.80), as well as higher odds of disruption to each program separately. Noncost-driven moves were also associated with disruptions to at least 1 safety net program, but less strongly so (adjusted odds ratio 1.14; confidence interval 1.01-1.29; P value for comparison with cost-driven = .045). CONCLUSIONS: Residential moves, particularly cost-driven moves, are associated with social safety net benefit disruptions. The association between these events suggests a need for action to ensure consistent safety net access among children facing cost-driven moves and vice versa (ie, access to housing supports for children with disrupted safety net access).

Food Insecurity Is High in a Multi-Site Cohort of Transgender Women Vulnerable to or Living with HIV in the Eastern and Southern United States: Baseline Findings from the LITE Cohort.

The prevalence and correlates of food insecurity-the unavailability of food and limited access to it-have not been adequately considered among transgender women (TW), particularly alongside other health-related conditions burdening this population, such as HIV infection. This study examined the prevalence and correlates of food insecurity among TW. Between 2018 and 2020, 1590 TW in the Eastern and Southern U.S. completed a multi-site baseline assessment (socio-behavioral survey and HIV testing). Descriptive statistics were calculated and multivariable Poisson models with robust error variance were used to estimate prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals for correlates of food insecurity (dichotomized as sometimes-to-always vs. seldom-to-never running out of food). Eighteen percent of TW were living with HIV and nearly half of participants (44%) reported food insecurity. Correlates of food insecurity included being Black, multiracial, or another race/ethnicity; having < college education, low income, unstable housing, and high anticipated discrimination; and a history of sex work and sexual violence (all p < 0.05). Food insecurity was highly prevalent among TW. Current programs to provide food support do not adequately meet the needs of TW. HIV pr evention and care programs may benefit from addressing food insecurity.

Hospital readmissions among adults living with and without HIV in the US: findings from the Nationwide Readmissions Database.

Background: Thirty-day hospital readmission measures quality of care, but there are limited data among people with HIV (PWH) and people without HIV (PWoH) in the era of universal recommendation for antiretroviral therapy. We descriptively compared 30-day all-cause, unplanned readmission risk between PWH and PWoH. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the 2019 Nationwide Readmissions Database (2019/01/01-2019/12/31), an all-payer database that represents all US hospitalizations. Index (initial) admissions and readmissions were determined using US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services definitions. Crude and age-adjusted risk ratios (aRR) comparing the 30-day all-cause, unplanned readmission risk between PWH to PWoH were estimated using random effect logistic regressions and predicted marginal estimates. Survey weights were applied to all analyses. Findings: We included 24,338,782 index admissions from 18,240,176 individuals. The median age was 52(IQR = 40-60) years for PWH and 61(IQR = 38-74) years for PWoH. The readmission risk was 20.9% for PWH and 12.2% for PWoH (age-adjusted-RR:1.88 [95%CI = 1.84-1.92]). Stratified by age and sex, young female (age 18-29 and 30-39 years) PWH had a higher readmission risk than young female PWoH (aRR = 3.50 [95%CI = 3.11-3.88] and aRR = 4.00 [95%CI = 3.67-4.32], respectively). While the readmission risk increased with age among PWoH, the readmission risk was persistently high across all age groups among PWH. The readmission risk exceeded 30% for PWH admitted for hypertensive heart disease, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease. Interpretation: PWH have a disproportionately higher risk of readmission than PWoH, which is concerning given the aging profile of PWH. More efforts are needed to address readmissions among PWH. Funding: US National Institutes of Health.

Recent and projected incidence trends and risk of anal cancer among people with HIV in North america.

BACKGROUND: Anal cancer risk is elevated among people with HIV (PWH). Recent anal cancer incidence patterns among PWH in the United States (US) and Canada remain unclear. It is unknown how the incidence patterns may evolve in future years. METHODS: Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design, we investigated absolute anal cancer incidence and incidence trends in the US, Canada, and different US regions. We further estimated relative risk compared with persons without HIV, relative risk among various subgroups, and projected future anal cancer burden among US PWH. RESULTS: During 2001-2016, in the US, age-standardized anal cancer incidence declined 2.2%/year (95%CI=-4.4% to -0.1%), particularly in the Western region (-3.8%/year [95%CI=-6.5% to -0.9%]. In Canada, incidence remained stable. Considerable geographic variation in risk was observed by US regions (eg, over four-fold risk in the Midwest and Southeast compared to the Northeast among men who have sex with men [MSM] with HIV). Anal cancer risk increased with a decrease in nadir CD4 count and was elevated among those with opportunistic illnesses. Anal cancer burden among US PWH is expected to decrease in future years (through 2035), but >70% of cases will continue to occur in MSM with HIV and people with AIDS. CONCLUSION: Geographic variation in anal cancer risk and trends may reflect underlying differences in screening practices and HIV epidemic. MSM with HIV and PWH with AIDS will continue to bear most anal cancer burden, highlighting the importance of precision prevention.

Age-associated dementia among older people aging with HIV in the United States: a modeling study.

OBJECTIVE: Almost 400 000 people with HIV (PWH) in the United States are over age 55 years and at risk for age-associated dementias (AAD), including Alzheimer's disease and vascular contributions to cognitive impairment and dementia (VCID). We projected the cumulative incidence and mortality associated with AAD among PWH at least 60 years in the United States compared with the general population. DESIGN/METHODS: Integrating the CEPAC and AgeD-Pol models, we simulated two cohorts of 60-year-old male and female individuals: PWH, and the general US population. We estimated AAD incidence and AAD-associated mortality rates. Projected outcomes included AAD cumulative incidence, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We performed sensitivity and scenario analyses on AAD-specific (e.g. incidence) and HIV-specific (e.g. disengagement from HIV care) parameters, as well as premature aging among PWH. RESULTS: We projected that 22.1%/16.3% of 60-year-old male individuals/female individuals with HIV would develop AAD by 80 years compared with 15.9%/13.3% of male individuals/female individuals in the general population. Accounting for age-associated and dementia-associated quality of life, 60-year-old PWH would have a lower life expectancy (QALYs): 17.4 years (14.1 QALYs) and 16.8 years (13.4 QALYs) for male and female individuals, respectively, compared with the general population [male individuals, 21.7 years (18.4 QALYs); female individuals, 24.7 years (20.2 QALYs)]. AAD cumulative incidence was most sensitive to non-HIV-related mortality, engagement in HIV care, and AAD incidence rates. CONCLUSION: Projected estimates of AAD-associated morbidity, mortality, and quality of life can inform decision-makers and health systems planning as the population of PWH ages. Improved AAD prevention, treatment, and supportive care planning are critical for people aging with HIV.

Preexposure prophylaxis availability among health facilities participating in the global International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium.

BACKGROUND: While recognized as a key HIV prevention strategy, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) availability and accessibility are not well documented globally. We aimed to describe PrEP drug registration status and the availability of PrEP services across HIV care sites participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) research consortium. METHODS: We used country-level PrEP drug registration status from the AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition and data from IeDEA surveys conducted in 2014, 2017 and 2020 among participating HIV clinics in seven global regions. We used descriptive statistics to assess PrEP availability across IeDEA sites serving adult patients in 2020 and examined trends in PrEP availability among sites that responded to all three surveys. RESULTS: Of 199 sites that completed the 2020 survey, PrEP was available in 161 (81%). PrEP availability was highest at sites in North America (29/30; 97%) and East Africa (70/74; 95%) and lowest at sites in Central (10/20; 50%) and West Africa (1/6; 17%). PrEP availability was higher among sites in countries where PrEP was officially registered (146/161; 91%) than where it was not (14/32; 44%). Availability was higher at health centers (109/120; 90%) and district hospitals (14/16; 88%) compared to regional/teaching hospitals (36/63). Among the 94 sites that responded to all three surveys, PrEP availability increased from 47% in 2014 to 60% in 2017 and 76% in 2020. CONCLUSION: PrEP availability has substantially increased since 2014 and is now available at most IeDEA sites. However, PrEP service provision varies markedly across global regions.

THE ASSOCIATION OF ANEMIA WITH SURVIVAL AMONG PEOPLE WITH HIV FOLLOWING ANTIRETROVIRAL INITIATION IN THE NA-ACCORD 2007-2016.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is an independent predictor of mortality, which may be utilized as a signal of deteriorating health. We estimated the association between anemia severity categories and mortality following the initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people with HIV (PWH) in North America. METHODS: Within the NA-ACCORD, annual median hemoglobin measurements between 01/01/2007-12/31/2016 were categorized using World Health Organization criteria into mild (11.0-12.9g/dL men, 11.0-11.9g/dL women), moderate (8.0-10.9g/dL men/women) and severe (<8.0g/dL men/women) anemia. Discrete time-to-event analyses using complementary log-log link models estimated mortality hazards ratios adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, and HIV clinical markers with 95% confidence intervals for the association between anemia and mortality. RESULTS: Among 67,228 PWH contributing a total of 320,261 annual median hemoglobin measurements, 257,293 (80%) demonstrated no anemia, 44,041 (14%) mild, 18,259 (6%) moderate, and 668 (0.2%) severe anemia during follow-up. Mortality risk was 5.6-fold higher among PWH with (vs. without) anemia. The association was greater among males (aHR=5.8 [5.4, 6.2]) versus females (aHR=4.1 [3.2, 5.4]). Mortality risk was 3.8-fold higher among PWH with mild anemia, 13.7-fold higher with moderate anemia, and 34.5-fold higher with severe anemia (vs. no anemia). Median hemoglobin levels significantly declined within 4 years prior to death, with the maximum decrease the year prior to death. Macrocytic anemia was associated with an increased and microcytic anemia a decreased mortality risk (vs. normocytic anemia). CONCLUSIONS: Anemia among PWH who have initiated ART is an important predictive marker for mortality with macrocytic anemia having an increased and microcytic anemia a decreased association with mortality compared with normocytic anemia.

PrEP initiation and discontinuation among transgender women in the United States: a longitudinal, mixed methods cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Transgender women in the United States experience high HIV incidence and suboptimal Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) engagement. We sought to estimate PrEP initiation and discontinuation rates and characterize PrEP discontinuation experiences among a prospective cohort of transgender women. METHODS: Using a sequential, explanatory, mixed-methods design, 1312 transgender women at risk for HIV acquisition were enrolled from March 2018 to August 2020 and followed through July 2022 (median follow-up 24 months; interquartile range 15-36). Cox regression models assessed predictors of initiation and discontinuation. In-depth interviews were conducted among 18 participants, including life history calendars to explore key events and experiences surrounding discontinuations. Qualitative and quantitative data were integrated to generate typologies of discontinuation, inform meta-inferences and facilitate the interpretation of findings. RESULTS: 21.8% (n = 286) of participants reported taking PrEP at one or more study visits while under observation. We observed 139 PrEP initiations over 2127 person-years (6.5 initiations/100 person-years, 95% CI: 5.5-7.7). Predictors of initiation included identifying as Black and PrEP indication. The rate of initiation among those who were PrEP-indicated was 9.6 initiations/100 person-years (132/1372 person-years; 95% CI: 8.1-11.4). We observed 138 PrEP discontinuations over 368 person-years (37.5 discontinuations/100 person-years, 95% CI: 31.7-44.3). Predictors of discontinuation included high school education or less and initiating PrEP for the first time while under observation. Four discontinuation typologies emerged: (1) seroconversion following discontinuation; (2) ongoing HIV acquisition risk following discontinuation; (3) reassessment of HIV/STI prevention strategy following discontinuation; and (4) dynamic PrEP use coinciding with changes in HIV acquisition risk. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP initiation rates were low and discontinuation rates were high. Complex motivations to stop using PrEP did not consistently correspond with HIV acquisition risk reduction. Evidence-based interventions to increase PrEP persistence among transgender women with ongoing acquisition risk and provide HIV prevention support for those who discontinue PrEP are necessary to reduce HIV incidence in this population.