Assessing national vector control micro-planning in Zambia using the 2021 malaria indicator survey.

BACKGROUND: In 2020, the Zambia National Malaria Elimination Centre targeted the distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor-residual spraying (IRS) campaigns based on sub-district micro-planning, where specified geographical areas at the health facility catchment level were assigned to receive either LLINs or IRS. Using data from the 2021 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS), the objectives of this analysis were to (1) assess how well the micro-planning was followed in distributing LLINs and IRS, (2) investigate factors that contributed to whether households received what was planned, and (3) investigate how overall coverage observed in the 2021 MIS compared to the 2018 MIS conducted prior to micro-planning. METHODS: Households' receipt of ≥ 1 LLIN, and/or IRS within the past 12 months in the 2021 MIS, was compared against the micro-planning area under which the households fell. GPS points for 3,550 households were overlayed onto digitized micro-planning maps in order to determine what micro-plan the households fell under, and thus whether they received their planned intervention. Mixed-effects regression models were conducted to investigate what factors affected whether these households: (1) received their planned intervention, and (2) received any intervention. Finally, coverage indicators between the 2021 and 2018 MIS were compared. RESULTS: Overall, 60.0% (95%CI 55.4, 64.4) of households under a micro-plan received their assigned intervention, with significantly higher coverage of the planned intervention in LLIN-assigned areas (75.7% [95%CI 69.5, 80.9]) compared to IRS-assigned areas (49.4% [95%CI: 44.4, 54.4]). Regression analysis indicated that households falling under the IRS micro-plan had significantly reduced odds of receiving their planned intervention (OR: 0.34 [95%CI 0.24, 0.48]), and significantly reduced odds of receiving any intervention (OR: 0.51 [95%CI 0.37, 0.72] ), compared to households under the LLIN micro-plan. Comparison between the 2021 and 2018 MIS indicated a 27% reduction in LLIN coverage nationally in 2021, while IRS coverage was similar. Additionally, between 2018 and 2021, there was a 13% increase in households that received neither intervention. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis shows that although the micro-planning strategy adopted in 2020 worked much better for LLIN-assigned areas compared to IRS-assigned areas, there was reduced overall vector control coverage in 2021 compared to 2018 before micro-planning.

Associating the scale-up of insecticide-treated nets and use with the decline in all-cause child mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2005 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the malaria burden and improve the socioeconomic status of its citizens, the Democratic Republic of Congo scaled up key malaria control interventions, especially insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), between 2005 and 2014. Since then, the effects of these interventions on malaria mortality and morbidity have not been assessed. This study aimed to measure the impact of the National Malaria Control Programme's efforts and to inform future control strategies. METHODS: The authors used data from the Demographic and Health Surveys 2007 and 2013-2014 to assess trends in all-cause childhood mortality (ACCM) against trends in coverage of malaria interventions at national and subnational levels. The authors used the plausibility argument to assess the impact of the malaria control interventions and used Kaplan-Meier survival probability and Cox proportional hazard models to examine the effect of ITN ownership on child survival. Contextual factor trends affecting child survival were also considered. RESULTS: Countrywide, household ownership of at least one ITN increased, from 9% in 2007 to 70% in 2013-2014. All provinces experienced similar increases, with some greater than the national level. ITN use increased between 2007 and 2013-2014 among children under five (6% to 55%). Severe anaemia (haemoglobin concentration < 8 g/dl) prevalence among children aged 6-59 months significantly decreased, from 11% (95% confidence interval [CI] 9-13%) in 2007 to 6% (95% CI 5-7%) in 2013-2014. During the same period, ACCM declined, from 148 (95% CI 132-163) to 104 (95% CI 97-112) deaths per 1000 live births. The decline in ACCM was greater among children aged 6-23 months (relative reduction of 36%), compared to children aged 24-59 months (relative reduction of 12%). Cox regression indicated that household ownership of at least one ITN reduced the risk of mortality by 24% among children under five (risk ratio = 0.76, 95% CI 0.64-0.90). Contextual factor analysis revealed marginal improvements in socioeconomic indicators and other health interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Given the patterns of the coverage of malaria control interventions, patterns in ACCM by province, and marginal improvements in contextual factors, the authors conclude that the malaria control interventions have plausibly contributed to the decrease in ACCM in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2005 to 2014.

Evaluating malaria programmes in moderate- and low-transmission settings: practical ways to generate robust evidence.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have made substantial progress in scaling-up and sustaining malaria intervention coverage, leading to more focalized and heterogeneous transmission in many settings. Evaluation provides valuable information for programmes to understand if interventions have been implemented as planned and with quality, if the programme had the intended impact on malaria burden, and to guide programmatic decision-making. Low-, moderate-, and heterogeneous-transmission settings present unique evaluation challenges because of dynamic and targeted intervention strategies. This paper provides illustration of evaluation approaches and methodologies for these transmission settings, and suggests how to answer evaluation questions specific to the local context. METHODS: The Roll Back Malaria Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group formed a task force in October 2017 to lead development of this framework. The task force includes representatives from National Malaria Programmes, funding agencies, and malaria research and implementing partners. The framework builds on existing guidance for process and outcome evaluations and impact evaluations specifically in high transmission settings. RESULTS: The theory of change describes how evaluation questions asked by national malaria programmes in different contexts influence evaluation design. The transmission setting, existing stratification, and data quality and availability are also key considerations. The framework is intended for adaption by countries to their local context, and use for evaluation at sub-national level. Confirmed malaria incidence is recommended as the primary impact indicator due to its sensitivity to detect changes in low-transmission settings. It is expected that process evaluations provide sufficient evidence for programme monitoring and improvement, while impact evaluations are needed following adoption of new mixes of interventions, operational strategies, tools or policies, particularly in contexts of changing malaria epidemiology. Impact evaluations in low-, moderate-, or heterogeneous-transmission settings will likely use plausibility designs, and methods highlighted by the framework include interrupted time series, district-level dose-response analyses, and constructed control methods. Triangulating multiple data sources and analyses is important to strengthen the plausibility argument. CONCLUSIONS: This framework provides a structure to assist national malaria programmes and partners to design evaluations in low-, moderate- or heterogeneous-transmission settings. Emphasizing a continuous cycle along the causal pathway linking process evaluation to impact evaluation and then programmatic decision-making, the framework provides practical guidance in evaluation design, analysis, and interpretation to ensure that the evaluation meets national malaria programme priority questions and guides decision-making at national and sub-national levels.

Are new national malaria strategic plans informed by the previous ones? A comprehensive assessment of sub-Saharan African countries from 2001 to present.

BACKGROUND: New national malaria strategic plans (NMSPs) should build upon the achievements and challenges identified during the implementation of previous plans, but there is limited research on the transition process between NMSPs. This study aims to fill this gap through an assessment of NMSPs across sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: The study reviewed the two most recent NMSPs for selected sub-Saharan African countries. Targets for six core malaria indicators were extracted from each NMSP and compared to the coverage achieved according to corresponding population-based surveys completed near the end of the NMSP term. Implementation challenges and proposed solutions identified through the NMSP analysis were documented. The current NMSP was reviewed to determine whether proposed solutions had been integrated into the strategy. RESULTS: Twenty-two countries in sub-Saharan Africa were included in the assessment. Of the 135 verified targets, only 4 were achieved. No country reached more than one of the six targets assessed in each NMSP. Despite this low success rate, only four of the 22 countries lowered a subsequent target, with most setting the next target at an equal or greater level. Most NMSPs identified solutions to address implementation challenges faced, but the solutions were not always fully incorporated in the new strategy. CONCLUSIONS: The results show a disconnect between NMSPs. Most targets were set according to global goals rather than the individual country's previous achievements and limitations. This indicates a need to revise the NMSP development process to guide programmes in defining targets based on their country context and incorporate strategies to address challenges identified in the previous NMSP. This will allow countries to set and meet achievable targets as they work toward global goals.

A subnational profiling analysis reveals regional differences as the main predictor of ITN ownership and use in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the malaria burden in Nigeria, the country is scaling up prevention and treatment interventions, especially household ownership and use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). Nevertheless, large gaps remain to achieve the goals of the National Malaria Strategic Plan 2014-2020 of universal access to ITNs and their increased use. To inform the targeting of intervention strategies and to maximize impact, the authors conducted a sub-national profiling of household ITN ownership and use in the general population to identify key predictors of ITN ownership and use, and the sub-groups that are at higher risk of low ITN coverage and use. METHODS: The authors conducted a secondary analysis of data from the 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey. Using the Chi square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) and multiple logistic regression analysis, the authors examined the key predictors of ITN ownership and use in the general population throughout Nigeria. RESULTS: The CHAID models identified region of the country as the best predictor of household ownership of at least one ITN and its use in the general population, with higher ownership and use observed in the northern regions. The odds of a household owning an ITN were five times greater in the North West region compared with the North Central region (odds ratio [OR] = 5.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.46-6.72, p < 0.001). The odds of ITN use were two times greater for those living in the North West region compared with the North Central region (OR = 2.04, 95% CI 1.73-2.41, p < 0.001). Other significant predictors were household size, head of household education level, household wealth quintile, and place of residence. The CHAID gain index results identified households in the South West, North Central and South Central regions with low ITN ownership, and the general population in the South South, South East and North Central regions with low ITN use. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals regional differences in ITN ownership and use in Nigeria. Therefore, the findings from this analysis provide evidence that could inform the NMEP to better target future campaign and routine distribution of ITNs, to achieve universal access and increased use by 2020 in Nigeria.

Academic physicians' and medical students' perceived barriers toward bystander administered naloxone as an overdose prevention strategy.

AIMS: To identify perceived barriers to the prescription of naloxone to third-party contacts of opiate users. DESIGN: Qualitative descriptive study. SETTING: Two academic hospitals in Baltimore, MD, USA. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty medical providers, including both physicians and medical students. MEASUREMENTS: Qualitative; in-depth interviews and focus groups analyzed using line-by-line, focused, and axial coding based on methods adapted from grounded theory. FINDINGS: Academic physicians and medical students cited three categories of barriers to naloxone prescription related to drug, provider, and patient characteristics. Concerns about naloxone itself included inability to prevent addictive behaviors, duration of action, medical risks, expiration date, and route of administration. Concerns about medical providers included lack of knowledge or experience, medical community common practices and norms, insufficient provision of third-party education, physician and clinic scheduling practices, worry about insulting patients, and fear of being viewed as enabling drug abuse. Concerns about patients included increased risk-taking behaviors, opiate withdrawal symptoms, potential repeat overdose related to withdrawal-discomfort, decreased contact with medical providers, and stigma. CONCLUSIONS: Minimizing barriers to naloxone provision may increase acceptability and prescription practice in the medical community. Addressing these barriers from multiple provider perspectives is critical to advance naloxone prescription as a harm reduction strategy, which has the potential to prevent opiate overdoses.