Estimating the Public Health Impact of Air Pollution for Informing Policy in the Twin Cities: A Minnesota Tracking Collaboration.

OBJECTIVE: The Minnesota Department of Health and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency used local air pollution and public health data to estimate the impacts of particulate matter and ozone on population health, to identify disparities, and to inform decisions that will improve health. SETTING: While air quality in Minnesota currently meets federal standards, urban communities are concerned about the impact of air pollution on their health. The Twin Cities (Minneapolis-St Paul) metropolitan area includes 7 counties where fine particulate levels and rates of asthma exacerbations are elevated in some communities. DESIGN: We used the Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program) software, along with local PM2.5 (fine particulate) and ozone ambient concentrations, census and population health data, to calculate impacts for 2008 at the zip code level. The impacts were summed across all zip codes for area-wide estimates. American Community Survey data were used to stratify zip codes by poverty and race for assessment of disparities. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Attributable fraction, attributable rate and counts for all-cause mortality, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospitalizations, asthma emergency department (ED) visits, and cardiovascular disease hospitalizations. RESULTS: In the Twin Cities (2008), air pollution was a contributing cause for an estimated 2% to 5% of respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations and ED visits and between 6% and 13% of premature deaths. The elderly (aged 65+ years) experienced the highest air pollution-attributable rates of death and respiratory hospitalizations; children experienced the highest asthma ED visit rates. Geographical and demographic differences in air pollution-attributable health impacts across the region reflected the differences in the underlying morbidity and mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Method was effective in demonstrating that changes in air quality can have quantifiable health impacts across the Twin Cities. Key messages and implications from this work were shared with the media, community groups, legislators and the public. The results are being used to inform initiatives aimed at reducing sources of air pollution and to address health disparities in urban communities.

Efficiency of incentives to jointly increase carbon sequestration and species conservation on a landscape.

We develop an integrated model to predict private land-use decisions in response to policy incentives designed to increase the provision of carbon sequestration and species conservation across heterogeneous landscapes. Using data from the Willamette Basin, Oregon, we compare the provision of carbon sequestration and species conservation under five simple policies that offer payments for conservation. We evaluate policy performance compared with the maximum feasible combinations of carbon sequestration and species conservation on the landscape for various conservation budgets. None of the conservation payment policies produce increases in carbon sequestration and species conservation that approach the maximum potential gains on the landscape. Our results show that policies aimed at increasing the provision of carbon sequestration do not necessarily increase species conservation and that highly targeted policies do not necessarily do as well as more general policies.

Ecosystem services as a common language for coastal ecosystem-based management.

Ecosystem-based management is logistically and politically challenging because ecosystems are inherently complex and management decisions affect a multitude of groups. Coastal ecosystems, which lie at the interface between marine and terrestrial ecosystems and provide an array of ecosystem services to different groups, aptly illustrate these challenges. Successful ecosystem-based management of coastal ecosystems requires incorporating scientific information and the knowledge and views of interested parties into the decision-making process. Estimating the provision of ecosystem services under alternative management schemes offers a systematic way to incorporate biogeophysical and socioeconomic information and the views of individuals and groups in the policy and management process. Employing ecosystem services as a common language to improve the process of ecosystem-based management presents both benefits and difficulties. Benefits include a transparent method for assessing trade-offs associated with management alternatives, a common set of facts and common currency on which to base negotiations, and improved communication among groups with competing interests or differing worldviews. Yet challenges to this approach remain, including predicting how human interventions will affect ecosystems, how such changes will affect the provision of ecosystem services, and how changes in service provision will affect the welfare of different groups in society. In a case study from Puget Sound, Washington, we illustrate the potential of applying ecosystem services as a common language for ecosystem-based management.

Coastal ecosystem-based management with nonlinear ecological functions and values.

A common assumption is that ecosystem services respond linearly to changes in habitat size. This assumption leads frequently to an "all or none" choice of either preserving coastal habitats or converting them to human use. However, our survey of wave attenuation data from field studies of mangroves, salt marshes, seagrass beds, nearshore coral reefs, and sand dunes reveals that these relationships are rarely linear. By incorporating nonlinear wave attenuation in estimating coastal protection values of mangroves in Thailand, we show that the optimal land use option may instead be the integration of development and conservation consistent with ecosystem-based management goals. This result suggests that reconciling competing demands on coastal habitats should not always result in stark preservation-versus-conversion choices.