Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Estimating mortality and causes of death in Turkey: methods, results and policy implications.

BACKGROUND: Cause-specific mortality statistics are primary evidence for health policy formulation, programme evaluation, and epidemiological research. In Turkey, a partially functioning vital registration system in urban areas yields fragmentary evidence on levels and causes of mortality. This article discusses the application of innovative methods to develop national mortality estimates in Turkey, and their implications for national health development policies. METHODS: Child mortality levels from the Demography and Health Survey (DHS) were applied to model life tables to estimate age-specific death rates. Reported causes of death from urban areas were adjusted using re-distribution algorithms from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. Rural cause structure was estimated from epidemiological models. Local epidemiological data was used to adjust model-based estimates. RESULTS: Life expectancy at birth in 2000 was estimated to be 67.7 years (males) and 71.9 years (females), about 8-10 years lower than in Western Europe. Leading causes of death include major vascular diseases (ischaemic heart disease, stroke) causing 35-38% of deaths, chronic obstructive lung disease and lung cancer in men, but also perinatal causes, lower respiratory infections and diarrhoeal diseases. Injuries cause about 6-8% of deaths, although this may be an underestimate. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality estimates are uncertain in Turkey, given the poor quality of death registration systems. Application of burden of disease methods suggests that there has been progress along the epidemiological transition. Key health development strategies for Turkey include improved access to communicable disease control technologies, and urgent attention to the development of a reliable, nationally representative health information system.