Simulation-based inference for efficient identification of generative models in computational connectomics.

Recent advances in connectomics research enable the acquisition of increasing amounts of data about the connectivity patterns of neurons. How can we use this wealth of data to efficiently derive and test hypotheses about the principles underlying these patterns? A common approach is to simulate neuronal networks using a hypothesized wiring rule in a generative model and to compare the resulting synthetic data with empirical data. However, most wiring rules have at least some free parameters, and identifying parameters that reproduce empirical data can be challenging as it often requires manual parameter tuning. Here, we propose to use simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) to address this challenge. Rather than optimizing a fixed wiring rule to fit the empirical data, SBI considers many parametrizations of a rule and performs Bayesian inference to identify the parameters that are compatible with the data. It uses simulated data from multiple candidate wiring rule parameters and relies on machine learning methods to estimate a probability distribution (the 'posterior distribution over parameters conditioned on the data') that characterizes all data-compatible parameters. We demonstrate how to apply SBI in computational connectomics by inferring the parameters of wiring rules in an in silico model of the rat barrel cortex, given in vivo connectivity measurements. SBI identifies a wide range of wiring rule parameters that reproduce the measurements. We show how access to the posterior distribution over all data-compatible parameters allows us to analyze their relationship, revealing biologically plausible parameter interactions and enabling experimentally testable predictions. We further show how SBI can be applied to wiring rules at different spatial scales to quantitatively rule out invalid wiring hypotheses. Our approach is applicable to a wide range of generative models used in connectomics, providing a quantitative and efficient way to constrain model parameters with empirical connectivity data.

Flexible and efficient simulation-based inference for models of decision-making.

Inferring parameters of computational models that capture experimental data are a central task in cognitive neuroscience. Bayesian statistical inference methods usually require the ability to evaluate the likelihood of the model-however, for many models of interest in cognitive neuroscience, the associated likelihoods cannot be computed efficiently. Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a solution to this problem by only requiring access to simulations produced by the model. Previously, Fengler et al. introduced likelihood approximation networks (LANs, Fengler et al., 2021) which make it possible to apply SBI to models of decision-making, but require billions of simulations for training. Here, we provide a new SBI method that is substantially more simulation efficient. Our approach, mixed neural likelihood estimation (MNLE), trains neural density estimators on model simulations to emulate the simulator, and is designed to capture both the continuous (e.g., reaction times) and discrete (choices) data of decision-making models. The likelihoods of the emulator can then be used to perform Bayesian parameter inference on experimental data using standard approximate inference methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. We demonstrate MNLE on two variants of the drift-diffusion model and show that it is substantially more efficient than LANs: MNLE achieves similar likelihood accuracy with six orders of magnitude fewer training simulations, and is significantly more accurate than LANs when both are trained with the same budget. Our approach enables researchers to perform SBI on custom-tailored models of decision-making, leading to fast iteration of model design for scientific discovery.