Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?

Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2 ], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per °C. Doubling [CO2 ] from 360 to 720 µmol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2 ] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2 ] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

Building a community-based open harmonised reference data repository for global crop mapping.

Reference data is key to produce reliable crop type and cropland maps. Although research projects, national and international programs as well as local initiatives constantly gather crop related reference data, finding, collecting, and harmonizing data from different sources is a challenging task. Furthermore, ethical, legal, and consent-related restrictions associated with data sharing represent a common dilemma faced by international research projects. We address these dilemmas by building a community-based, open, harmonised reference data repository at global extent, ready for model training or product validation. Our repository contains data from different sources such as the Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring Initiative (GEOGLAM) Joint Experiment for Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM) sites, the Radiant MLHub, the Future Harvest (CGIAR) centers, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Food Security and Agriculture Program (NASA Harvest), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) citizen science platforms (LACO-Wiki and Geo-Wiki), as well as from individual project contributions. Data of 2016 onwards were collected, harmonised, and annotated. The data sets spatial, temporal, and thematic quality were assessed applying rules developed in this research. Currently, the repository holds around 75 million harmonised observations with standardized metadata of which a large share is available to the public. The repository, funded by ESA through the WorldCereal project, can be used for either the calibration of image classification deep learning algorithms or the validation of Earth Observation generated products, such as global cropland extent and maize and wheat maps. We recommend continuing and institutionalizing this reference data initiative e.g. through GEOGLAM, and encouraging the community to publish land cover and crop type data following the open science and open data principles.