Global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of caregivers: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic priorities have focused on prevention, detection, and response. Beyond morbidity and mortality, pandemics carry secondary impacts, such as children orphaned or bereft of their caregivers. Such children often face adverse consequences, including poverty, abuse, and institutionalisation. We provide estimates for the magnitude of this problem resulting from COVID-19 and describe the need for resource allocation. METHODS: We used mortality and fertility data to model minimum estimates and rates of COVID-19-associated deaths of primary or secondary caregivers for children younger than 18 years in 21 countries. We considered parents and custodial grandparents as primary caregivers, and co-residing grandparents or older kin (aged 60-84 years) as secondary caregivers. To avoid overcounting, we adjusted for possible clustering of deaths using an estimated secondary attack rate and age-specific infection-fatality ratios for SARS-CoV-2. We used these estimates to model global extrapolations for the number of children who have experienced COVID-19-associated deaths of primary and secondary caregivers. FINDINGS: Globally, from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, we estimate 1 134 000 children (95% credible interval 884 000-1 185 000) experienced the death of primary caregivers, including at least one parent or custodial grandparent. 1 562 000 children (1 299 000-1 683 000) experienced the death of at least one primary or secondary caregiver. Countries in our study set with primary caregiver death rates of at least one per 1000 children included Peru (10·2 per 1000 children), South Africa (5·1), Mexico (3·5), Brazil (2·4), Colombia (2·3), Iran (1·7), the USA (1·5), Argentina (1·1), and Russia (1·0). Numbers of children orphaned exceeded numbers of deaths among those aged 15-50 years. Between two and five times more children had deceased fathers than deceased mothers. INTERPRETATION: Orphanhood and caregiver deaths are a hidden pandemic resulting from COVID-19-associated deaths. Accelerating equitable vaccine delivery is key to prevention. Psychosocial and economic support can help families to nurture children bereft of caregivers and help to ensure that institutionalisation is avoided. These data show the need for an additional pillar of our response: prevent, detect, respond, and care for children. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Medical Research Council), UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, and Imperial College London.

Violence prevention accelerators for children and adolescents in South Africa: A path analysis using two pooled cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The INSPIRE framework was developed by 10 global agencies as the first global package for preventing and responding to violence against children. The framework includes seven complementary strategies. Delivering all seven strategies is a challenge in resource-limited contexts. Consequently, governments are requesting additional evidence to inform which 'accelerator' provisions can simultaneously reduce multiple types of violence against children. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We pooled data from two prospective South African adolescent cohorts including Young Carers (2010-2012) and Mzantsi Wakho (2014-2017). The combined sample size was 5,034 adolescents. Each cohort measured six self-reported violence outcomes (sexual abuse, transactional sexual exploitation, physical abuse, emotional abuse, community violence victimisation, and youth lawbreaking) and seven self-reported INSPIRE-aligned protective factors (positive parenting, parental monitoring and supervision, food security at home, basic economic security at home, free schooling, free school meals, and abuse response services). Associations between hypothesised protective factors and violence outcomes were estimated jointly in a sex-stratified multivariate path model, controlling for baseline outcomes and socio-demographics and correcting for multiple-hypothesis testing using the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. We calculated adjusted probability estimates conditional on the presence of no, one, or all protective factors significantly associated with reduced odds of at least three forms of violence in the path model. Adjusted risk differences (ARDs) and adjusted risk ratios (ARRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were also calculated. The sample mean age was 13.54 years, and 56.62% were female. There was 4% loss to follow-up. Positive parenting, parental monitoring and supervision, and food security at home were each associated with lower odds of three or more violence outcomes (p < 0.05). For girls, the adjusted probability of violence outcomes was estimated to be lower if all three of these factors were present, as compared to none of them: sexual abuse, 5.38% and 1.64% (ARD: -3.74% points, 95% CI -5.31 to -2.16, p < 0.001); transactional sexual exploitation, 10.07% and 4.84% (ARD: -5.23% points, 95% CI -7.26 to -3.20, p < 0.001); physical abuse, 38.58% and 23.85% (ARD: -14.72% points, 95% CI -19.11 to -10.33, p < 0.001); emotional abuse, 25.39% and 12.98% (ARD: -12.41% points, 95% CI -16.00 to -8.83, p < 0.001); community violence victimisation, 36.25% and 28.37% (ARD: -7.87% points, 95% CI -11.98 to -3.76, p < 0.001); and youth lawbreaking, 18.90% and 11.61% (ARD: -7.30% points, 95% CI -10.50 to -4.09, p < 0.001). For boys, the adjusted probability of violence outcomes was also estimated to be lower if all three factors were present, as compared to none of them: sexual abuse, 2.39% to 1.80% (ARD: -0.59% points, 95% CI -2.24 to 1.05, p = 0.482); transactional sexual exploitation, 6.97% to 4.55% (ARD: -2.42% points, 95% CI -4.77 to -0.08, p = 0.043); physical abuse from 37.19% to 25.44% (ARD: -11.74% points, 95% CI -16.91 to -6.58, p < 0.001); emotional abuse from 23.72% to 10.72% (ARD: -13.00% points, 95% CI -17.04 to -8.95, p < 0.001); community violence victimisation from 41.28% to 35.41% (ARD: -5.87% points, 95% CI -10.98 to -0.75, p = 0.025); and youth lawbreaking from 22.44% to 14.98% (ARD -7.46% points, 95% CI -11.57 to -3.35, p < 0.001). Key limitations were risk of residual confounding and not having information on protective factors related to all seven INSPIRE strategies. CONCLUSION: In this cohort study, we found that positive and supervisory caregiving and food security at home are associated with reduced risk of multiple forms of violence against children. The presence of all three of these factors may be linked to greater risk reduction as compared to the presence of one or none of these factors. Policies promoting action on positive and supervisory caregiving and food security at home are likely to support further efficiencies in the delivery of INSPIRE.

New WHO Violence Prevention Information System, an interactive knowledge platform of scientific findings on violence.

Scientific information on violence can be difficult to compile and understand. It is scattered across websites, databases, technical reports and academic journals, and rarely addresses all types of violence. In response, in October 2017 WHO released the Violence Prevention Information System or Violence Info, an online interactive collection of scientific information about the prevalence, consequences, risk factors and preventability of all forms of interpersonal violence. It covers homicide, child maltreatment, youth violence, intimate partner violence, elder abuse and sexual violence.

Global development and diffusion of outcome evaluation research for interpersonal and self-directed violence prevention from 2007 to 2013: A systematic review.

Through a global review, we identified gaps in the geographical distribution of violence prevention evidence outcome evaluation studies and the types of violence addressed. Systematic literature searches identified 355 articles published between 2007 and 2013 that evaluated programs to prevent interpersonal or self-directed violence; focused on universal or selected populations; and reported outcomes measuring violence or closely related risk factors. The number of studies identified increased annually from 2008 (n = 37), reaching 64 in 2013. Over half (n = 203) of all studies focused on youth violence yet only one on elder maltreatment. Study characteristics varied by year and violence type. Only 9.3% of all studies had been conducted in LMICs. These studies were less likely than those in high income countries (HICs) to have tested established interventions yet more likely to involve international collaboration. Evaluation studies successfully established in LMIC had often capitalized on other major regional priorities (e.g. HIV). Relationships between violence and social determinants, communicable and non-communicable diseases, and even economic prosperity should be explored as mechanisms to increase the global reach of violence prevention research. Results should inform future research strategies and provide a baseline for measuring progress in developing the violence prevention evidence-base, especially in LMICs.

The long-term health consequences of child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Child sexual abuse is considered a modifiable risk factor for mental disorders across the life course. However the long-term consequences of other forms of child maltreatment have not yet been systematically examined. The aim of this study was to summarise the evidence relating to the possible relationship between child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect, and subsequent mental and physical health outcomes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A systematic review was conducted using the Medline, EMBASE, and PsycINFO electronic databases up to 26 June 2012. Published cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies that examined non-sexual child maltreatment as a risk factor for loss of health were included. All meta-analyses were based on quality-effects models. Out of 285 articles assessed for eligibility, 124 studies satisfied the pre-determined inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Statistically significant associations were observed between physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect and depressive disorders (physical abuse [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54; 95% CI 1.16-2.04], emotional abuse [OR = 3.06; 95% CI 2.43-3.85], and neglect [OR = 2.11; 95% CI 1.61-2.77]); drug use (physical abuse [OR = 1.92; 95% CI 1.67-2.20], emotional abuse [OR = 1.41; 95% CI 1.11-1.79], and neglect [OR = 1.36; 95% CI 1.21-1.54]); suicide attempts (physical abuse [OR = 3.40; 95% CI 2.17-5.32], emotional abuse [OR = 3.37; 95% CI 2.44-4.67], and neglect [OR = 1.95; 95% CI 1.13-3.37]); and sexually transmitted infections and risky sexual behaviour (physical abuse [OR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.50-2.10], emotional abuse [OR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.49-2.04], and neglect [OR = 1.57; 95% CI 1.39-1.78]). Evidence for causality was assessed using Bradford Hill criteria. While suggestive evidence exists for a relationship between maltreatment and chronic diseases and lifestyle risk factors, more research is required to confirm these relationships. CONCLUSIONS: This overview of the evidence suggests a causal relationship between non-sexual child maltreatment and a range of mental disorders, drug use, suicide attempts, sexually transmitted infections, and risky sexual behaviour. All forms of child maltreatment should be considered important risks to health with a sizeable impact on major contributors to the burden of disease in all parts of the world. The awareness of the serious long-term consequences of child maltreatment should encourage better identification of those at risk and the development of effective interventions to protect children from violence.

Global, regional, and national minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, by age and family circumstance up to Oct 31, 2021: an updated modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In the 6 months following our estimates from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, the proliferation of new coronavirus variants, updated mortality data, and disparities in vaccine access increased the amount of children experiencing COVID-19-associated orphanhood. To inform responses, we aimed to model the increases in numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, as well as the cumulative orphanhood age-group distribution and circumstance (maternal or paternal orphanhood). METHODS: We used updated excess mortality and fertility data to model increases in minimum estimates of COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver deaths from our original study period of March 1, 2020-April 30, 2021, to include the new period of May 1-Oct 31, 2021, for 21 countries. Orphanhood was defined as the death of one or both parents; primary caregiver loss included parental death or the death of one or both custodial grandparents; and secondary caregiver loss included co-residing grandparents or kin. We used logistic regression and further incorporated a fixed effect for western European countries into our previous model to avoid over-predicting caregiver loss in that region. For the entire 20-month period, we grouped children by age (0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-17 years) and maternal or paternal orphanhood, using fertility contributions, and we modelled global and regional extrapolations of numbers of orphans. 95% credible intervals (CrIs) are given for all estimates. FINDINGS: The number of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death is estimated to have increased by 90·0% (95% CrI 89·7-90·4) from April 30 to Oct 31, 2021, from 2 737 300 (95% CrI 1 976 100-2 987 000) to 5 200 300 (3 619 400-5 731 400). Between March 1, 2020, and Oct 31, 2021, 491 300 (95% CrI 485 100-497 900) children aged 0-4 years, 736 800 (726 900-746 500) children aged 5-9 years, and 2 146 700 (2 120 900-2 174 200) children aged 10-17 years are estimated to have experienced COVID-19-associated orphanhood. Globally, 76·5% (95% CrI 76·3-76·7) of children were paternal orphans, whereas 23·5% (23·3-23·7) were maternal orphans. In each age group and region, the prevalence of paternal orphanhood exceeded that of maternal orphanhood. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death almost doubled in 6 months compared with the amount after the first 14 months of the pandemic. Over the entire 20-month period, 5·0 million COVID-19 deaths meant that 5·2 million children lost a parent or caregiver. Our data on children's ages and circumstances should support pandemic response planning for children globally. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and Medical Research Council), Oak Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, and Imperial College London.

The Science of Scale for Violence Prevention: A New Agenda for Family Strengthening in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Ending all violence against children by 2030 is a core part of Sustainable Development Goals 5 and 16. A number of promising violence reduction strategies have been identified in research studies. However, we lack an understanding of the implementation and impact of these programs in respect to their delivery at a large scale or within existing service systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We advocate for greater collaboration between researchers, policymakers, donors, governments, non-governmental organizations, and program managers and staff to study how violence prevention programs operate on a large scale. We describe a new initiative aiming to foster such collaborations in the field of family strengthening programs.

Child maltreatment prevention: a systematic review of reviews.

OBJECTIVE: To synthesize recent evidence from systematic and comprehensive reviews on the effectiveness of universal and selective child maltreatment prevention interventions, evaluate the methodological quality of the reviews and outcome evaluation studies they are based on, and map the geographical distribution of the evidence. METHODS: A systematic review of reviews was conducted. The quality of the systematic reviews was evaluated with a tool for the assessment of multiple systematic reviews (AMSTAR), and the quality of the outcome evaluations was assessed using indicators of internal validity and of the construct validity of outcome measures. FINDINGS: The review focused on seven main types of interventions: home visiting, parent education, child sex abuse prevention, abusive head trauma prevention, multi-component interventions, media-based interventions, and support and mutual aid groups. Four of the seven - home-visiting, parent education, abusive head trauma prevention and multi-component interventions - show promise in preventing actual child maltreatment. Three of them - home visiting, parent education and child sexual abuse prevention - appear effective in reducing risk factors for child maltreatment, although these conclusions are tentative due to the methodological shortcomings of the reviews and outcome evaluation studies they draw on. An analysis of the geographical distribution of the evidence shows that outcome evaluations of child maltreatment prevention interventions are exceedingly rare in low- and middle-income countries and make up only 0.6% of the total evidence base. CONCLUSION: Evidence for the effectiveness of four of the seven main types of interventions for preventing child maltreatment is promising, although it is weakened by methodological problems and paucity of outcome evaluations from low- and middle-income countries.

Exposure to physical and sexual violence and adverse health behaviours in African children: results from the Global School-based Student Health Survey.

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between exposure to physical violence (PV) or sexual violence (SV) and adverse health behaviours among a sample of children in five African countries. METHODS: In a cross-sectional analysis of data from Namibia, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe - countries that participated in the Global School-based Student Health Survey in 2003 or 2004 - we compared the relative frequency of several adverse health behaviours among children (primarily students 13-15 years of age) who did and who did not report exposure to PV or SV. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) for such behaviours and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) after adjusting for age and sex. FINDINGS: Exposure to PV during the 12 months preceding the survey was reported by 27-50% (average: 42%) of the children studied in the five countries, and lifetime exposure to SV was reported by 9-33% (average: 23%). Moderate to strong associations were observed between exposure to PV or SV and measures of mental health, suicidal ideation, current cigarette use, current alcohol use, lifetime drug use, multiple sex partners and a history of sexually transmitted infection (P < 0.05 for all associations). For example, the odds of being a current cigarette smoker were higher in children involved in one fight (OR: 2.20; 95% CI: 1.77-2.75), 2-5 fights (OR: 3.43; 95% CI: 2.54-4.63), or 6 fights or more (OR: 5.95; 95% CI: 4.37-8.11) (P for trend < 0.001) during the 12 months preceding the survey than in children unexposed to PV. CONCLUSION: Childhood exposure to PV and SV is common among African children in some countries and is associated with multiple adverse health behaviours. In developing countries, increased awareness of the frequency of exposure to violence among children and its potential health consequences may lead to heightened attention to the need for health promotion and preventive programmes that address the problem.

The impact of violence on health in low- to middle-income countries.

More than 90% of violence-related deaths occur in low- to middle-income countries (LMICs), where the mortality rate due to violence is almost 2.5 times greater than in high-income countries. Over and above the substantial contribution of violence as a cause of death and physical injuries, victims of violence are also more vulnerable to a range of mental and physical health problems. Several studies describe the deleterious impact of different types of violence on a range of health outcomes, but no review has yet been undertaken that presents a composite overview of the current state of knowledge in LMICs. This paper reviews the scientific literature describing the nature, magnitude and impact of violence on health, describing the current state of violence-prevention policy developments within the global health agenda and highlighting the health consequences, disease burden and economic costs of violence. Although data are limited, the review indicates that costs relating to violence deplete health care budgets considerably and that scarce resources could be better used to address other health threats that hamper development.

The impact of violence on development in low- to middle-income countries.

Along with the numerous trauma-related impacts of violence and its effects on other health outcomes, the social toll of violence is further exacerbated by economic costs that represent formidable threats to fiscal growth and development. A companion piece to a review of the scientific literature describing the nature, magnitude and impact of violence on health (Matzopoulos, Bowman, Butchart & Mercy, 2008) in this issue, this paper reviews the current knowledge base on violence and development with a specific focus on low- to middle-income countries. It describes how violence impacts on all eight goals of the Millennium Development Plan and exerts a considerable economic burden on already stressed state systems and social spending. Violence will become an increasingly important threat to development and is receiving growing recognition among the global health community and within health ministries. The near absence of violence prevention within the global development agenda is, however, cause for concern. There is an urgent need to mobilise the international development community to provide financial and technical support for intersectoral collaboration, multilateral research cooperation and the development of research capacity towards addressing violence as a significant threat to development.

Preventing violence in developing countries: a framework for action.

Violence is an enormous global public health problem that increases the risk of injury, disease and poor mental health while also impeding economic and social development. This paper articulates a framework for violence prevention in developing countries that is grounded in the knowledge gained from research and programmatic efforts in rich and in poor countries over several decades. This framework can be used by countries and funding agencies as a guide to building strong foundations for ongoing violence prevention efforts and for identifying violence prevention strategies most likely to be effective. The world has learned a lot about preventing violence and, without a doubt, there is a great deal more to learn. As a global community, however, it is not possible to wait for perfect solutions to these problems to act. The obligation is to act now to use the valuable knowledge that has been gained about violence prevention to improve the world.

Violence: a glossary.

Violence has been explicitly identified as a significant public health problem. This glossary clarifies widely used definitions and concepts of violence within the public health field, building on those promoted through the 2002 World Report on Violence and Health. We provide definitions and concepts that can be usefully applied to identify points for public health intervention to prevent the social and health impacts of violence.

Violence: a priority for public health? (part 2).

Violence continues to grow as a priority for public health practitioners, particularly as its causes and consequences become better understood and the potential roles for public health are better articulated. This article provides the context to "Violence: a glossary (part 1)" published in the last issue of this journal, and updates some of the data, concepts and population approaches presented in the 2002 World report on violence and health. The paper addresses the following questions: What is the magnitude and global burden of injury from violence? What causes violence? Is resilience important? What is the role for public health? What are the key challenges and opportunities? We aim to engage the general reader and to increase understanding of violence as a potentially preventable issue.

The effect of multiple adverse childhood experiences on health: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: A growing body of research identifies the harmful effects that adverse childhood experiences (ACEs; occurring during childhood or adolescence; eg, child maltreatment or exposure to domestic violence) have on health throughout life. Studies have quantified such effects for individual ACEs. However, ACEs frequently co-occur and no synthesis of findings from studies measuring the effect of multiple ACE types has been done. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched five electronic databases for cross-sectional, case-control, or cohort studies published up to May 6, 2016, reporting risks of health outcomes, consisting of substance use, sexual health, mental health, weight and physical exercise, violence, and physical health status and conditions, associated with multiple ACEs. We selected articles that presented risk estimates for individuals with at least four ACEs compared with those with none for outcomes with sufficient data for meta-analysis (at least four populations). Included studies also focused on adults aged at least 18 years with a sample size of at least 100. We excluded studies based on high-risk or clinical populations. We extracted data from published reports. We calculated pooled odds ratios (ORs) using a random-effects model. FINDINGS: Of 11 621 references identified by the search, 37 included studies provided risk estimates for 23 outcomes, with a total of 253 719 participants. Individuals with at least four ACEs were at increased risk of all health outcomes compared with individuals with no ACEs. Associations were weak or modest for physical inactivity, overweight or obesity, and diabetes (ORs of less than two); moderate for smoking, heavy alcohol use, poor self-rated health, cancer, heart disease, and respiratory disease (ORs of two to three), strong for sexual risk taking, mental ill health, and problematic alcohol use (ORs of more than three to six), and strongest for problematic drug use and interpersonal and self-directed violence (ORs of more than seven). We identified considerable heterogeneity (I2 of >75%) between estimates for almost half of the outcomes. INTERPRETATION: To have multiple ACEs is a major risk factor for many health conditions. The outcomes most strongly associated with multiple ACEs represent ACE risks for the next generation (eg, violence, mental illness, and substance use). To sustain improvements in public health requires a shift in focus to include prevention of ACEs, resilience building, and ACE-informed service provision. The Sustainable Development Goals provide a global platform to reduce ACEs and their life-course effect on health. FUNDING: Public Health Wales.

Estimating the South African trauma caseload.

A survey of medical superintendents revealed that an estimated 1.5 million trauma cases presented to South Africa's 356 secondary and tertiary level hospitals in 1999. Injury rates for traffic, violence and other injuries showed considerable inter-provincial variation, with violence accounting for more than half of the trauma caseload. This type of survey is a simple low cost alternative for monitoring injury patterns and supplementing burden of disease and injury costing studies.