Quiet Zone Within a Seismic Gap near Western Nicaragua: Possible Location of a Future Large Earthquake.

A 5700-square-kilometer quiet zone occurs in the midst of the locations of more than 4000 earthquakes off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. The region is indicated by the seismic gap technique to be a likely location for an earthquake of magnitude larger than 7. The quiet zone has existed since at least 1950; the last large earthquake originating from this area occurred in 1898 and was of magnitude 7.5. A rough estimate indicates that the magnitude of an earthquake rupturing the entire quiet zone could be as large as that of the 1898 event. It is not yet possible to forecast a time frame for the occurrence of such an earthquake in the quiet zone.

Yields of Soviet underground nuclear explosions from seismic surface waves: Compliance with the Threshold Test Ban Treaty.

Magnitudes of the larger Soviet underground nuclear weapons tests from the start of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty in 1976 through 1982 are determined for short- and long-period seismic waves. Yields are calculated from the surface wave magnitude for those explosions at the eastern Kazakh test site that triggered a small-to-negligible component of tectonic stress and are used to calibrate body wave magnitude-yield relationship that can be used to determine the sizes of other explosions at that test site. The results confirm that a large bias, related to differential attenuation of P waves, exists between Nevada and Central Asia. The yields of the seven largest Soviet explosions are nearly identical and are close to 150 kilotons, the limit set by the Threshold Treaty.