Three decades of increasing fish biodiversity across the northeast Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean.

Observed range shifts of numerous species support predictions of climate change models that species will shift their distribution northward into the Arctic and sub-Arctic seas due to ocean warming. However, how this is affecting overall species richness is unclear. Here we analyze 20,670 scientific research trawls from the North Sea to the Arctic Ocean collected from 1994 to 2020, including 193 fish species. We found that demersal fish species richness at the local scale has doubled in some Arctic regions, including the Barents Sea, and increased at a lower rate at adjacent regions in the last three decades, followed by an increase in species richness and turnover at a regional scale. These changes in biodiversity correlated with an increase in sea bottom temperature. Within the study area, Arctic species' probability of occurrence generally declined over time. However, the increase in species from southern latitudes, together with an increase in some Arctic species, ultimately led to an enrichment of the Arctic and sub-Arctic marine fauna due to increasing water temperature consistent with climate change.

Climate and human stressors on global penguin hotspots: Current assessments for future conservation.

As charismatic and iconic species, penguins can act as "ambassadors" or flagship species to promote the conservation of marine habitats in the Southern Hemisphere. Unfortunately, there is a lack of reliable, comprehensive, and systematic analysis aimed at compiling spatially explicit assessments of the multiple impacts that the world's 18 species of penguin are facing. We provide such an assessment by combining the available penguin occurrence information from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (>800,000 occurrences) with three main stressors: climate-driven environmental changes at sea, industrial fisheries, and human disturbances on land. Our analyses provide a quantitative assessment of how these impacts are unevenly distributed spatially within species' distribution ranges. Consequently, contrasting pressures are expected among species, and populations within species. The areas coinciding with the greatest impacts for penguins are the coast of Perú, the Patagonian Shelf, the Benguela upwelling region, and the Australian and New Zealand coasts. When weighting these potential stressors with species-specific vulnerabilities, Humboldt (Spheniscus humboldti), African (Spheniscus demersus), and Chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarcticus) emerge as the species under the most pressure. Our approach explicitly differentiates between climate and human stressors, since the more achievable management of local anthropogenic stressors (e.g., fisheries and land-based threats) may provide a suitable means for facilitating cumulative impacts on penguins, especially where they may remain resilient to global processes such as climate change. Moreover, our study highlights some poorly represented species such as the Northern Rockhopper (Eudyptes moseleyi), Snares (Eudyptes robustus), and Erect-crested penguin (Eudyptes sclateri) that need internationally coordinated efforts for data acquisition and data sharing to understand their spatial distribution properly.

Future climate-induced distribution shifts in a sexually dimorphic key predator of the Southern Ocean.

The response to climate change in highly dimorphic species can be hindered by differences between sexes in habitat preferences and movement patterns. The Antarctic fur seal, Arctocephalus gazella, is the most abundant pinniped in the Southern Hemisphere, and one of the main consumers of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, in the Southern Ocean. However, the populations breeding in the Atlantic Southern Ocean are decreasing, partly due to global warming. Male and female Antarctic fur seals differ greatly in body size and foraging ecology, and little is known about their sex-specific responses to climate change. We used satellite tracking data and Earth System Models to predict changes in habitat suitability for male and female Antarctic fur seals from the Western Antarctic Peninsula under different climate change scenarios. Under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5; global average temperature +4.4°C projected by 2100), suitable habitat patches will shift southward during the non-breeding season, leading to a minor overall habitat loss. The impact will be more pronounced for females than for males. The reduction of winter foraging grounds might decrease the survival of post-weaned females, reducing recruitment and jeopardizing population viability. During the breeding season, when males fast on land, suitable foraging grounds for females off the South Shetland Islands will remain largely unmodified, and new ones will emerge in the Bellingshausen Sea. As Antarctic fur seals are income breeders, the foraging grounds of females should be reasonably close to the breeding colony. As a result, the new suitable foraging grounds will be useful for females only if nearby beaches currently covered by sea ice emerge by the end of the century. Furthermore, the colonization of these new, ice-free breeding locations might be limited by strong female philopatry. These results should be considered when managing the fisheries of Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean.

La resposta al canvi climàtic en espècies amb dimorfisme sexual pot veure's dificultada per les diferències entre sexes respecte a les seves preferències d'ús de l'hàbitat i els seus patrons de moviment. L'os marí antàrtic (Arctocephalus gazella), és el pinnípede més abundant a l'Hemisferi Sud i un dels principals consumidors de krill antàrtic, (Euphausia superba), a l'Oceà Antàrtic. No obstant això, les poblacions que es reprodueixen al sector Atlàntic de l'Oceà Antàrtic estan disminuint, en part a causa de l'escalfament global. Els mascles i les femelles de l'os marí antàrtic difereixen considerablement en la seva mida corporal i ecologia tròfica, i es té poc coneixement sobre les seves respostes específiques al canvi climàtic. En aquest estudi hem utilitzat dades de seguiment per satèl·lit i models del Sistema Terrestre per predir els canvis en la idoneïtat de l'hàbitat per als mascles i les femelles d'os marí antàrtic de la Península Antàrtica Occidental sota diferents escenaris de canvi climàtic. Sota l'escenari més extrem (SSP5-8.5; temperatura mitjana mundial +4.4°C prevista per a 2100), les zones d'hàbitat idoni es desplaçaran cap al sud durant l'època d'hivernada (no reproducció), provocant una lleugera pèrdua d'hàbitat idoni. Tot i això, l'impacte serà més pronunciat per a les femelles que per als mascles. Aquesta reducció dels territoris d'alimentació durant l'hivern podria disminuir la supervivència de les femelles postdeslletades, reduint-ne el reclutament i posant en perill la viabilitat de la població. Durant l'època de cria, quan els mascles es troben majoritàriament en dejú a terra, els territoris d'alimentació idonis per a les femelles al voltant de les Illes Shetland del Sud romandran en gran part sense modificar-se, i n'emergiran de nous al mar de Bellingshausen. Com que les femelles d'os marí antàrtic es continuen alimentant durant la cria, els territoris d'alimentació de les femelles han d'estar raonablement a prop de la colònia de cria. Com a resultat, aquestes noves zones d'alimentació seran útils només si les platges properes, actualment cobertes de gel marí, emergeixen al llarg del segle. A més, la colonització d'aquests nous llocs de reproducció lliures de gel podria veure's limitada per la forta filopatria de les femelles. Aquests resultats haurien de tenir-se en compte en la gestió de les pesqueries de krill a l'Oceà Antàrtic.

Food web trophic control modulates tropical Atlantic reef ecosystems response to marine heat wave intensity and duration.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are episodes of anomalous warming in the ocean that can last from a few days to years. MHWs have different characteristics in terms of intensity, duration and frequency and generate thermal stress in marine ecosystems. In reef ecosystems, they are one of the main causes of the decreased presence and abundance of corals, invertebrates and fish. The deleterious capacity of thermal stress often depends on biotic factors, such as the trophic control of predators on prey. Despite the evidence of thermal stress and biotic factors affecting individual species, the combined effects of both stressors on entire reef ecosystems are much less studied. Here, using a food web modelling approach, we estimated the rate of change in species' biomass due to different MHW characteristics. Specifically, we modelled the mechanistic link between species' consumption rate and seawater temperature (thermal stressor), simulating species' biomass dynamics for different MHW characteristics under different trophic control assumptions (top-down, mixed trophic control and bottom-up). We find that total reef ecosystem biomass declined by 10% ± 5% under MHWs with severe intensity and a top-down control assumption. The bottom-up control assumption moderates the total ecosystem biomass reduction by 5% ± 5%. Irrespective of the MHW characteristics and the trophic control assumption, the most substantial biomass changes occur among top, mesopredators and corals (5% to 20% ± 10%). We show that reef ecosystems where predators exert top-down control on prey are prone to suffer species abundance declines under strong MHW events. We identify food web trophic control as a crucial driver that modulates the impacts of MHWs. Overall, our results provide a unified understanding of the interplay between abiotic stressors and biotic factors in reef ecosystems under extreme thermal events, offering insights into present baselines and future ecological states for reef ecosystems.

An inverse latitudinal gradient in speciation rate for marine fishes.

Far more species of organisms are found in the tropics than in temperate and polar regions, but the evolutionary and ecological causes of this pattern remain controversial1,2. Tropical marine fish communities are much more diverse than cold-water fish communities found at higher latitudes3,4, and several explanations for this latitudinal diversity gradient propose that warm reef environments serve as evolutionary 'hotspots' for species formation5-8. Here we test the relationship between latitude, species richness and speciation rate across marine fishes. We assembled a time-calibrated phylogeny of all ray-finned fishes (31,526 tips, of which 11,638 had genetic data) and used this framework to describe the spatial dynamics of speciation in the marine realm. We show that the fastest rates of speciation occur in species-poor regions outside the tropics, and that high-latitude fish lineages form new species at much faster rates than their tropical counterparts. High rates of speciation occur in geographical regions that are characterized by low surface temperatures and high endemism. Our results reject a broad class of mechanisms under which the tropics serve as an evolutionary cradle for marine fish diversity and raise new questions about why the coldest oceans on Earth are present-day hotspots of species formation.

Palaeontological evidence for community-level decrease in mesopelagic fish size during Pleistocene climate warming in the eastern Mediterranean.

Mesopelagic fishes are an important element of marine food webs, a huge, still mostly untapped food resource and great contributors to the biological carbon pump, whose future under climate change scenarios is unknown. The shrinking of commercial fishes within decades has been an alarming observation, but its causes remain contended. Here, we investigate the effect of warming climate on mesopelagic fish size in the eastern Mediterranean Sea during a glacial-interglacial-glacial transition of the Middle Pleistocene (marine isotope stages 20-18; 814-712 kyr B.P.), which included a 4°C increase in global seawater temperature. Our results based on fossil otoliths show that the median size of lanternfishes, one of the most abundant groups of mesopelagic fishes in fossil and modern assemblages, declined by approximately 35% with climate warming at the community level. However, individual mesopelagic species showed different and often opposing trends in size across the studied time interval, suggesting that climate warming in the interglacial resulted in an ecological shift toward increased relative abundance of smaller sized mesopelagic fishes due to geographical and/or bathymetric distribution range shifts, and the size-dependent effects of warming.

Sardines at a junction: Seascape genomics reveals ecological and oceanographic drivers of variation in the NW Mediterranean Sea.

By evaluating genetic variation across the entire genome, one can address existing questions in a novel way while raising new ones. The latter includes how different local environments influence adaptive and neutral genomic variation within and among populations, providing insights into local adaptation of natural populations and their responses to global change. Here, under a seascape genomic approach, ddRAD data of 4609 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 398 sardines (Sardina pilchardus) collected in 11 Mediterranean and one Atlantic site were generated. These were used along with oceanographic and ecological information to detect signals of adaptive divergence with gene flow across environmental gradients. The studied sardines constitute two clusters (FST  = 0.07), a pattern attributed to outlier loci, highlighting putative local adaptation. The trend in the number of days with sea surface temperature above 19°C, a critical threshold for successful sardine spawning, was crucial at all levels of population structuring with implications on the species' key biological processes. Outliers link candidate SNPs to the region's environmental heterogeneity. Our findings provide evidence for a dynamic equilibrium in which population structure is maintained by physical and ecological factors under the opposing influences of migration and selection. This dynamic in a natural system warrants continuous monitoring under a seascape genomic approach that might benefit from a temporal and more detailed spatial dimension. Our results may contribute to complementary studies aimed at providing deeper insights into the mechanistic processes underlying population structuring. Those are key to understanding and predicting future changes and responses of this highly exploited species in the face of climate change.

Making protected areas effective for biodiversity, climate and food.

The spatial extent of marine and terrestrial protected areas (PAs) was among the most intensely debated issues prior to the decision about the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Positive impacts of PAs on habitats, species diversity and abundance are well documented. Yet, biodiversity loss continues unabated despite efforts to protect 17% of land and 10% of the oceans by 2020. This casts doubt on whether extending PAs to 30%, the agreed target in the Kunming-Montreal GBF, will indeed achieve meaningful biodiversity benefits. Critically, the focus on area coverage obscures the importance of PA effectiveness and overlooks concerns about the impact of PAs on other sustainability objectives. We propose a simple means of assessing and visualising the complex relationships between PA area coverage and effectiveness and their effects on biodiversity conservation, nature-based climate mitigation and food production. Our analysis illustrates how achieving a 30% PA global target could be beneficial for biodiversity and climate. It also highlights important caveats: (i) achieving lofty area coverage objectives alone will be of little benefit without concomitant improvements in effectiveness, (ii) trade-offs with food production particularly for high levels of coverage and effectiveness are likely and (iii) important differences in terrestrial and marine systems need to be recognized when setting and implementing PA targets. The CBD's call for a significant increase in PA will need to be accompanied by clear PA effectiveness goals to reduce and revert dangerous anthropogenic impacts on socio-ecological systems and biodiversity.

Differential effect of fisheries to the COVID-19 pandemic in the region of Andalusia (Spain).

Fishing is one of the most widespread and important human activities in coastal ecosystems and it plays a fundamental role in employment and the economy of coastal communities. However, in the period 2020-2021, the global outbreak of COVID-19 negatively affected fishing economic activity. Against this background, Andalusia (South of Spain) is an important region in which the resilience of different fishing exploitation systems can be studied, but within the same social and economic framework. Therefore, the main study aim was to investigate the resilience of fishing activity to the COVID-19 pandemic in two Andalusian fishing grounds (i.e. Atlantic and Mediterranean). We analysed daily landings and the first-sale prices of fresh fish of the most caught species in both fishing grounds, while taking into account the different seasonal behaviour of the fisheries. Generalised Linear Models were used to compare the data, which were obtained during periods in which the COVID-19 severity levels differed. These levels were implemented according to political measures. The final objective was to understand how the degree of industrialisation in the fleets can hinder or help maintain the economic activity of fisheries during major crises.

Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change.

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Making spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling better - A perspective.

Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) provide a deeper understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics. The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development has highlighted the need to deploy these complex mechanistic spatial-temporal models to engage policy makers and society into dialogues towards sustainably managed oceans. From our shared perspective, MEMs remain underutilized because they still lack formal validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantifications that undermines their credibility and uptake in policy arenas. We explore why these shortcomings exist and how to enable the global modelling community to increase MEMs' usefulness. We identify a clear gap between proposed solutions to assess model skills, uncertainty, and confidence and their actual systematic deployment. We attribute this gap to an underlying factor that the ecosystem modelling literature largely ignores: technical issues. We conclude by proposing a conceptual solution that is cost-effective, scalable and simple, because complex spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling is already complicated enough.

Twenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins.

Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%-30% (±12%-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%-80% (±35%-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.

Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs.

Effective ecosystem-based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components' vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions.

Hacia un Marco de Trabajo para la Evaluación y el Manejo de los Impactos Humanos Acumulativos sobre las Redes Alimenticias Marinas Resumen El manejo efectivo con base en los ecosistemas requiere entender la respuesta de los ecosistemas a múltiples amenazas humanas en lugar de enfocarse en amenazas individuales. Para entender holísticamente la respuesta de los ecosistemas a las múltiples amenazas antropogénicas es necesario saber cómo estas amenazas afectan a los diferentes componentes dentro de los ecosistemas y cómo alteran finalmente el funcionamiento de los ecosistemas. Usamos el estudio de caso de la red alimenticia del pasto marino del Mediterráneo (Posidonia oceanica) y la obtención de conocimiento de expertos en una aplicación de los pasos iniciales de un método para la evaluación de los impactos humanos acumulativos sobre las redes alimenticias. Produjimos un modelo de red alimenticia de pastos marinos, determinamos las principales relaciones tróficas, identificamos a las principales amenazas para los componentes de la red y evaluamos la vulnerabilidad de los componentes a esas amenazas. Algunas amenazas tuvieron impactos altos (p. ej.: infraestructura costera) o bajos (p. ej.: escorrentía agrícola) sobre todos los componentes de la red, mientras que otros (p. ej.: carnívoros introducidos) tuvieron impactos muy diferentes sobre cada componente. Partir al ecosistema en sus componentes nos permitió identificar amenazas no vistas previamente y reevaluar la importancia de las amenazas percibidas comúnmente como mayores. Al incorporar este entendimiento de la vulnerabilidad del sistema con datos sobre los cambios en el estado de cada amenaza (p. ej.: disminución de la contaminación doméstica e incremento de la pesca) al modelo de red alimenticia, los manejadores pueden ser capaces de estimar y predecir de mejor manera los impactos humanos acumulativos sobre los ecosistemas y priorizar las acciones de conservación.

From projected species distribution to food-web structure under climate change.

Climate change is inducing deep modifications in species geographic ranges worldwide. However, the consequences of such changes on community structure are still poorly understood, particularly the impacts on food-web properties. Here, we propose a new framework, coupling species distribution and trophic models, to predict climate change impacts on food-web structure across the Mediterranean Sea. Sea surface temperature was used to determine the fish climate niches and their future distributions. Body size was used to infer trophic interactions between fish species. Our projections reveal that 54 fish species of 256 endemic and native species included in our analysis would disappear by 2080-2099 from the Mediterranean continental shelf. The number of feeding links between fish species would decrease on 73.4% of the continental shelf. However, the connectance of the overall fish web would increase on average, from 0.26 to 0.29, mainly due to a differential loss rate of feeding links and species richness. This result masks a systematic decrease in predator generality, estimated here as the number of prey species, from 30.0 to 25.4. Therefore, our study highlights large-scale impacts of climate change on marine food-web structure with potential deep consequences on ecosystem functioning. However, these impacts will likely be highly heterogeneous in space, challenging our current understanding of climate change impact on local marine ecosystems.

Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought.

Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced responses in forests at the macroecological scale, including defoliation, mortality, and food web responses. Here we report a generalized increase in crown defoliation in southern European forests occurring during 1987-2007. Forest tree species have consistently and significantly altered their crown leaf structures, with increased percentages of defoliation in the drier parts of their distributions in response to increased water deficit. We assessed the demographic responses of trees associated with increased defoliation in southern European forests, specifically in the Iberian Peninsula region. We found that defoliation trends are paralleled by significant increases in tree mortality rates in drier areas that are related to tree density and temperature effects. Furthermore, we show that severe drought impacts are associated with sudden changes in insect and fungal defoliation dynamics, creating long-term disruptive effects of drought on food webs. Our results reveal a complex geographical mosaic of species-specific responses to climate change-driven drought pressures on the Iberian Peninsula, with an overwhelmingly predominant trend toward increased drought damage.

Assessing mercury contamination in Southern Hemisphere marine ecosystems: The role of penguins as effective bioindicators.

Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant known for its significant bioaccumulation and biomagnification capabilities, posing a particular threat to marine environments. Seabirds have been recognized as effective bioindicators of marine pollution, and, among them, penguins present a unique opportunity to serve as a single taxonomic group (Sphenisciformes) for monitoring Hg across distinct marine ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive systematic review of Hg concentrations, and performed a meta-analysis that took into account the various sources of uncertainty associated with Hg contamination in penguins. Beyond intrinsic species-specific factors shaping Hg levels, our results showed that the penguin community effectively reflects spatial patterns of Hg bioavailability. We identified geographic Hg hotspots in Australia, the Indian Ocean, and Tierra del Fuego, as well as coldspots in Perú and the South Atlantic. Furthermore, specific penguin species, namely the Southern Rockhopper (Eudyptes chrysocome) and Macaroni penguin (Eudyptes chrysolophus), are highlighted as particularly vulnerable to the toxic effects of Hg. Additionally, we identified knowledge gaps in geographic areas such as the Galápagos Islands, South Africa, and the coast of Chile, as well as in species including Fiordland (Eudyptes pachyrhynchus), Snares (Eudyptes robustus), Erect-crested (Eudyptes sclateri), Royal (Eudyptes schlegeli), Yellow-eyed (Megadyptes antipodes), and Galápagos (Spheniscus mendiculus) penguins. Overall, our study contributes to the growing body of literature emphasizing the role of penguins as bioindicators of Hg pollution, but it also highlights areas where further research and data collection are needed for a more comprehensive understanding of Hg contamination in marine ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere.

Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea.

Climate warming is one of the facets of anthropogenic global change predicted to increase in the future, its magnitude depending on present-day decisions. The north Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are already undergoing community changes, with warmer-water species expanding northwards, and colder-water species retracting. However, the future extent and implications of these shifts remain unclear. Here, we fitted a joint species distribution model to occurrence data of 107, and biomass data of 61 marine fish species from 16,345 fishery independent trawls sampled between 2004 and 2022 in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, including the Barents Sea. We project overall increases in richness and declines in relative dominance in the community, and generalised increases in species' ranges and biomass across three different future scenarios in 2050 and 2100. The projected decline of capelin and the practical extirpation of polar cod from the system, the two most abundant species in the Barents Sea, drove an overall reduction in fish biomass at Arctic latitudes that is not replaced by expanding species. Furthermore, our projections suggest that Arctic demersal fish will be at high risk of extinction by the end of the century if no climate refugia is available at eastern latitudes.

Spatial patterns of ß-diversity under cumulative pressures in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

Understanding the spatial dynamics of biodiversity is an essential issue in marine ecology and requires combining information at local and regional scales. ß-diversity is an important measure of biodiversity that informs on the differences in community composition between sites and, thus, in the species turnover in the community structure. In this study, we analysed and predicted the spatial patterns of ß-diversity for fishes, invertebrates and the demersal assemblage along the Iberian Mediterranean coast. We used Bayesian Bootstrap Generalized Dissimilarity Models (BBGDMs) to study the effects of environment and human pressures on the ß-diversity of invertebrate, fishes and the entire demersal assemblage from 1994 to 2015 using different time windows to account for temporal variability. Then, we used these relationships to predict the spatial patterns of ß-diversity in the whole Iberian Mediterranean coast. Our results highlighted that the regional spatial patterns of ß-diversity were best described by bathymetry and a cumulative index of coastal impacts. We identified specific regions with the highest ß-diversity in the study area, which were complementary to hotspots of species richness and presented different degree of overlapping with existent marine protected areas. Overall, our study illustrates that by modelling spatial turnover using ß-diversity we can better understand and predict spatial variation of biodiversity and the effects of particular variables, providing relevant information to end-users and policy makers for designing specific spatial conservation and management strategies.

Understanding the response of the Western Mediterranean cephalopods to environment and fishing in a context of alleged winners of change.

Increasing impacts of both fisheries and climate change have resulted in shifts in the structure and functioning of marine communities. One recurrent observation is the rise of cephalopods as fish recede. This is generally attributed to the removal of main predators and competitors by fishing, while mechanistic evidence is still lacking. In addition, climate change may influence cephalopods due to their high environmental sensitivity. We aim to unveil the effects of different anthropogenic and environmental drivers at different scales focusing on the cephalopod community of the Western Mediterranean Sea. We investigate several ecological indicators offering a wide range of information about their ecology, and statistically relating them with environmental, biotic and fisheries drivers. Our results highlight non-linear changes of indicators along with spatial differences in their responses. Overall, the environment drivers have greater effects than biotic and local human impacts with contrasting effects of temperature across the geographic gradient. We conclude that cephalopods may be impacted by climate change in the future while not necessary through positive warming influence, which should make us cautious when referring to them as generalized winners of current changes.

Cross-basin and cross-taxa patterns of marine community tropicalization and deborealization in warming European seas.

Ocean warming and acidification, decreases in dissolved oxygen concentrations, and changes in primary production are causing an unprecedented global redistribution of marine life. The identification of underlying ecological processes underpinning marine species turnover, particularly the prevalence of increases of warm-water species or declines of cold-water species, has been recently debated in the context of ocean warming. Here, we track changes in the mean thermal affinity of marine communities across European seas by calculating the Community Temperature Index for 65 biodiversity time series collected over four decades and containing 1,817 species from different communities (zooplankton, coastal benthos, pelagic and demersal invertebrates and fish). We show that most communities and sites have clearly responded to ongoing ocean warming via abundance increases of warm-water species (tropicalization, 54%) and decreases of cold-water species (deborealization, 18%). Tropicalization dominated Atlantic sites compared to semi-enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas, probably due to physical barrier constraints to connectivity and species colonization. Semi-enclosed basins appeared to be particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, experiencing the fastest rates of warming and biodiversity loss through deborealization.