Rural livestock asset portfolio in northern Ethiopia: a microeconomic analysis of choice and accumulation.

Livestock fulfill different functions. Depending on their livelihood strategies, households differ in their choice of what type of animal to keep and on accumulation of the chosen animal overtime. Using a panel data of 385 rural households in a mixed farming system in northern Ethiopia, this paper investigates the dynamic behavior of rural households' livestock holding to identify determinants of choice and accumulation of livestock overtime. Choice is analyzed for a principal animal, the animal that constituted the largest value of livestock assets a household possessed, using a multinomial logit model. Results indicate that rural households differ in their choice of what type of animal to keep. Agro-climatic conditions, sex and age of household head, presence of an adult male member in a household, and liquidity are the major factors that influence the type of principal animal households keep. Conditional on the principal animal selected, we analyzed the factors that determine the accumulation of the chosen animals by correcting for selection bias. Area of land cultivated is the most significant factor that explains the number of animals households keep. Other factors include sex of household head, diversification into nonfarm self-employment, and shocks.

Desertification? Northern Ethiopia re-photographed after 140 years.

A collection of sepia photographs, taken during Great Britain's military expedition to Abyssinia in 1868, are the oldest landscape photographs from northern Ethiopia, and have been used to compare the status of vegetation and land management 140 years ago with that of contemporary times. Thirteen repeat landscape photographs, taken during the dry seasons of 1868 and 2008, were analyzed for various environmental indicators and show a significant improvement of vegetation cover. New eucalypt woodlands, introduced since the 1950s are visible and have provided a valuable alternative for house construction and fuel-wood, but more importantly there has also been locally important natural regeneration of indigenous trees and shrubs. The situation in respect to soil and water conservation measures in farmlands has also improved. According to both historical information and measured climatic data, rainfall conditions around 1868 and in the late 19th century were similar to those of the late 20th/early 21st century. Furthermore, despite a ten-fold increase in population density, land rehabilitation has been accomplished over extensive areas by large-scale implementation of reforestation and terracing activities, especially in the last two decades. In some cases repeat photography shows however that riparian vegetation has been washed away. This is related to river widening in recent degradation periods, particularly in the 1970s-1980s. More recently, riverbeds have become stabilized, and indicate a decreased runoff response. Environmental recovery programmes could not heal all scars, but this study shows that overall there has been a remarkable recovery of vegetation and also improved soil protection over the last 140 years, thereby invalidating hypotheses of the irreversibility of land degradation in semi-arid areas. In a highly degraded environment with high pressure on the land, rural communities were left with no alternative but to improve land husbandry: in northern Ethiopia such interventions have been demonstrably successful.

Understanding spatial patterns of soils for sustainable agriculture in northern Ethiopia's tropical mountains.

Knowledge of the geographical distribution of soils is indispensable for policy and decision makers to achieve the goal of increasing agricultural production and reduce poverty, particularly in the Global South. A study was conducted to better understand the soilscapes of the Giba catchment (900-3300 m a.s.l.; 5133 km2) in northern Ethiopia, so as to sustain soil use and management. To characterise the chemical and physical properties of the different benchmark soils and to classify them in line with the World Reference Base of Soil Resources, 141 soil profile pits and 1381 soil augerings at representative sites were analysed. The dominant soil units identified are Leptosol and bare rock (19% coverage), Vertic Cambisol (14%), Regosol and Cambisol (10%), Skeletic/Leptic Cambisol and Regosol (9%), Rendzic Leptosol (7%), Calcaric/Calcic Vertisol (6%), Chromic Luvisol (6%) and Chromic/Pellic Vertisol (5%). Together these eight soil units cover almost 75% of the catchment. Topography and parent material are the major influencing factors that explain the soil distribution. Besides these two factors, land cover that is strongly impacted by human activities, may not be overlooked. Our soil suitability study shows that currently, after thousands of years of agricultural land use, a new dynamic equilibrium has come into existence in the soilscape, in which ca. 40% of the catchment is very suitable, and 25% is moderately suitable for agricultural production. In view of such large suitable areas, the Giba catchment has a good agricultural potential if soil erosion rates can be controlled, soil fertility (particularly nitrogen) increased, available water optimally used, and henceforth crop yields increased.

Geographic distribution and ecological niche of plague in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Plague is a rapidly progressing, serious illness in humans that is likely to be fatal if not treated. It remains a public health threat, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In spite of plague's highly focal nature, a thorough ecological understanding of the general distribution pattern of plague across sub-Saharan Africa has not been established to date. In this study, we used human plague data from sub-Saharan Africa for 1970-2007 in an ecological niche modeling framework to explore the potential geographic distribution of plague and its ecological requirements across Africa. RESULTS: We predict a broad potential distributional area of plague occurrences across sub-Saharan Africa. General tests of model's transferability suggest that our model can anticipate the potential distribution of plague occurrences in Madagascar and northern Africa. However, generality and predictive ability tests using regional subsets of occurrence points demonstrate the models to be unable to predict independent occurrence points outside the training region accurately. Visualizations show plague to occur in diverse landscapes under wide ranges of environmental conditions. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the typical focality of plague, observed in sub-Saharan Africa, is not related to fragmented and insular environmental conditions manifested at a coarse continental scale. However, our approach provides a foundation for testing hypotheses concerning focal distribution areas of plague and their links with historical and environmental factors.

Conservation of the Ethiopian church forests: Threats, opportunities and implications for their management.

In the central and northern highlands of Ethiopia, native forest and forest biodiversity is almost confined to sacred groves associated with churches. Local communities rely on these 'church forests' for essential ecosystem services including shade and fresh water but little is known about their region-wide distribution and conservation value. We (1) performed the first large-scale spatially-explicit assessment of church forests, combining remote-sensing and field data, to assess the number of forests, their size, shape, isolation and woody plant species composition, (2) determined their plant communities and related these to environmental variables and potential natural vegetation, (3) identified the main challenges to biodiversity conservation in view of plant population dynamics and anthropogenic disturbances, and (4) present guidelines for management and policy. The 394 forests identified in satellite images were on average ~2ha in size and generally separated by ~2km from the nearest neighboring forest. Shape complexity, not size, decreased from the northern to the central highlands. Overall, 148 indigenous tree, shrub and liana species were recorded across the 78 surveyed forests. Patch α-diversity increased with mean annual precipitation, but typically only 25 woody species occurred per patch. The combined results showed that >50% of tree species present in tropical northeast Africa were still present in the 78 studied church forests, even though individual forests were small and relatively species-poor. Tree species composition of church forests varied with elevation and precipitation, and resembled the potential natural vegetation. With a wide distribution over the landscape, these church forests have high conservation value. However, long-term conservation of biodiversity of individual patches and evolutionary potential of species may be threatened by isolation, small sizes of tree species populations and disturbance, especially when considering climate change. Forest management interventions are essential and should be supported by environmental education and other forms of public engagement.

Human activity spaces and plague risks in three contrasting landscapes in Lushoto District, Tanzania.

Since 1980 plague has been a human threat in the Western Usambara Mountains in Tanzania. However, the spatial-temporal pattern of plague occurrence remains poorly understood. The main objective of this study was to gain understanding of human activity patterns in relation to spatial distribution of fleas in Lushoto District. Data were collected in three landscapes differing in plague incidence. Field survey coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) and physical sample collections were used to collect data in wet (April to June 2012) and dry (August to October 2012) seasons. Data analysis was done using GIS, one-way ANOVA and nonparametric statistical tools. The degree of spatial co-occurrence of potential disease vectors (fleas) and humans in Lushoto focus differs significantly (p ≤ 0.05) among the selected landscapes, and in both seasons. This trend gives a coarse indication of the possible association of the plague outbreaks and the human frequencies of contacting environments with fleas. The study suggests that plague surveillance and control programmes at landscape scale should consider the existence of plague vector contagion risk gradient from high to low incidence landscapes due to human presence and intensity of activities.

Predicting small mammal and flea abundance using landform and soil properties in a plague endemic area in Lushoto District, Tanzania.

Small mammals particularly rodents, are considered the primary natural hosts of plague. Literature suggests that plague persistence in natural foci has a root cause in soils. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between on the one hand landforms and associated soil properties, and on the other hand small mammals and fleas in West Usambara Mountains in Tanzania, a plague endemic area. Standard field survey methods coupled with Geographical Information System (GIS) technique were used to examine landform and soils characteristics. Soil samples were analysed in the laboratory for physico-chemical properties. Small mammals were trapped on pre-established landform positions and identified to genus/species level. Fleas were removed from the trapped small mammals and counted. Exploration of landform and soil data was done using ArcGIS Toolbox functions and descriptive statistical analysis. The relationships between landforms, soils, small mammals and fleas were established by generalised linear regression model (GLM) operated in R statistics software. Results show that landforms and soils influence the abundance of small mammals and fleas and their spatial distribution. The abundance of small mammals and fleas increased with increase in elevation. Small mammal species richness also increases with elevation. A landform-soil model shows that available phosphorus, slope aspect and elevation were statistically significant predictors explaining richness and abundance of small mammals. Fleas' abundance and spatial distribution were influenced by hill-shade, available phosphorus and base saturation. The study suggests that landforms and soils have a strong influence on the richness and evenness of small mammals and their fleas' abundance hence could be used to explain plague dynamics in the area.

Small mammal distribution and diversity in a plague endemic area in West Usambara Mountains, Tanzania.

Small mammals play a role in plague transmission as hosts in all plague endemic areas. Information on distribution and diversity of small mammals is therefore important for plague surveillance and control in such areas. The objective of this study was to investigate small mammals' diversity and their distribution in plague endemic area in the West Usambara Mountains in north-eastern Tanzania. Landsat images and field surveys were used to select trapping locations in different landscapes. Three landscapes with different habitats were selected for trapping of small mammals. Three types of trap were used in order to maximise the number of species captured. In total, 188 animals and thirteen species were captured in 4,905 trap nights. Praomys delectorum and Mastomys natalensis both reported as plague hosts comprised 50% of all the animals trapped. Trap success increased with altitude. Species diversity was higher in plantation forest followed by shrub, compared to other habitats, regardless of landscape type. It would therefore seem that chances of plague transmission from small mammals to humans are much higher under shrub, natural and plantation forest habitats.

Vegetation habitats and small mammals in a plague endemic area in Western Usambara Mountains, Tanzania.

Human plague still exists in different parts of the world, including some landscapes in north-eastern Tanzania. Wherever the hotspot of plague, small mammals seem to play a key role as host. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between vegetation habitats types and small mammals in a plague endemic area of Lushoto District in Tanzania. A combination of field survey and Landsat images was used to identify the vegetation habitats. Small mammals were trapped in the mapped vegetation units, and identified. In total, six main types of vegetation habitats were investigated. A total of 13 small mammal species, potentially related to plague were trapped. Results show that annual cultivated crops habitat accounted for 80% of Mastomys natalensis while natural forest accounted for 60% of Praomys delectorum. These findings have shed new light on the diversity of rodents in different habitats of natural and semi-natural vegetations, and agricultural crops in the study area, which is an important intermediate step in unravelling the complex human plague system.

Integrating land cover and terrain characteristics to explain plague risks in Western Usambara Mountains, Tanzania: a geospatial approach.

Literature suggests that higher resolution remote sensing data integrated in Geographic Information System (GIS) can provide greater possibility to refine the analysis of land cover and terrain characteristics for explanation of abundance and distribution of plague hosts and vectors and hence of health risk hazards to humans. These technologies are not widely used in East Africa for studies on diseases including plague. The objective of this study was to refine the analysis of single and combined land cover and terrain characteristics in order to gain an insight into localized plague infection risks in the West Usambara Mountains in north-eastern Tanzania. The study used a geospatial approach to assess the influence of land cover and terrain factors on the abundance and spatial distribution of plague hosts (small mammals) and plague vectors (fleas). It considered different levels of scale and resolution. Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) statistical method was used to clarify the relationships between land cover and terrain variables with small mammals and fleas. Results indicate that elevation positively influenced the presence of small mammals. The presence of fleas was clearly influenced by land management features such as miraba. Medium to high resolution remotely sensed data integrated in a GIS have been found to be quite useful in this type of analysis. These findings contribute to efforts on plague surveillance and awareness creation among communities on the probable risks associated with various landscape factors during epidemics.

Land use determinants of small mammal abundance and distribution in a plague endemic area of Lushoto District, Tanzania.

Small mammals are considered to be involved in the transmission cycle of bubonic plague, still occurring in different parts of the world, including the Lushoto District in Tanzania. The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between land use types and practices and small mammal abundance and distribution. A field survey was used to collect data in three landscapes differing in plague incidences. Data collection was done both in the wet season (April-June 2012) and dry season (August-October 2012). Analysis of variance and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) modelling technique were used to establish the relationship between land use and small mammal abundance and distribution. Significant variations (p ≤ 0.05) of small mammal abundance among land use types were identified. Plantation forest with farming, natural forest and fallow had higher populations of small mammals than the other aggregated land use types. The influence of individual land use types on small mammal abundance level showed that, in both dry and wet seasons, miraba and fallow tended to favour small mammals' habitation whereas land tillage practices had the opposite effect. In addition, during the wet season crop types such as potato and maize appeared to positively influence the distribution and abundance of small mammals which was attributed to both shelter and food availability. Based on the findings from this study it is recommended that future efforts to predict and map spatial and temporal human plague infection risk at fine scale should consider the role played by land use and associated human activities on small mammal abundance and distribution.

Anthropogenic soils and land use patterns in relation to small mammal and flea abundance in plague endemic area of Western Usambara Mountains, Tanzania.

Heterogeneity in the landscapes of West Usambara Mountains on land use and human activities has been reported. However, the interface of land use patterns and human modified soils with small mammal and flea abundance for possible explanation of plague has not been explored. This study was carried out to determine the link between anthropogenic soils and land use patterns on small mammal and flea abundance and the occurrence of reported plague in the Western Usambara Mountains in Tanzania. Standard soil survey methods were used to identify and describe soils and land use patterns on lower slopes and valley bottoms on which the surrounding villages are reported to have high and medium plague frequencies. The identified soils were characterised in terms of their morphological and physico-chemical properties and classified according to FAO-World Reference Base for Soil Resources. Small mammals were trapped on the same landscape positions and identified to genus/species level. Fleas were removed from the trapped small mammals, counted and identified to species level. In total 57 small mammals were captured from which 32 fleas were collected. Results show that human settlements and mixed cultivation on lower slopes and continuous vegetable cropping in the valley bottoms are dominant land use types. Intensive use of forest soils, manuring and irrigation on farms in the studied landscapes have contributed to the development of uniquely human modified soils namely Hortic Anthrosols in the lower slopes and Plaggic Irragric Hortic Anthrosols in valley bottoms. The identified anthropogenic soils and land use patterns are associated with high abundance of small mammals (Mastomys natalensis) and flea species (Xenopsylla brasiliensis and Dinopsyllus lypusus). This phenomenon is vividly apparent in the villages with medium to high plague frequencies. The study suggests that plague surveillance programmes should consider the existing relationship between anthropogenic soils, land use patterns, small mammal and flea abundance.

Contribution of land use to rodent flea load distribution in the plague endemic area of Lushoto District, Tanzania.

Fleas associated with different rodent species are considered as the major vectors of bubonic plague, which is still rampant in different parts of the world. The objective of this study was to investigate the contribution of land use to rodent flea load distribution at fine scale in the plague endemic area of north-eastern Tanzania. Data was collected in three case areas namely, Shume, Lukozi and Mwangoi, differing in plague incidence levels. Data collection was carried out during both wet and dry seasons of 2012. Analysis of Variance and Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) statistical methods were used to clarify the relationships between fleas and specific land use characteristics. There was a significant variation (P ≤ 0.05) of flea indices in different land use types. Fallow and natural forest had higher flea indices whereas plantation forest mono-crop and mixed annual crops had the lowest flea indices among the aggregated land use types. The influence of individual land use types on flea indices was variable with fallow having a positive effect and land tillage showing a negative effect. The results also demonstrated a seasonal effect, part of which can be attributed to different land use practices such as application of pesticides, or the presence of grass strips around fields. These findings suggest that land use factors have a major influence on rodent flea abundance which can be taken as a proxy for plague infection risk. The results further point to the need for a comprehensive package that includes land tillage and crop type considerations on one hand and the associated human activities on the other, in planning and implementation of plague control interventions.

Environmental conditions and human drivers for changes to north Ethiopian mountain landscapes over 145 years.

As quantitative or spatially distributed studies of environmental change over truly long-term periods of more than 100 years are extremely rare, we re-photographed 361 landscapes that appear on historical photographs (1868-1994) within a 40,000 km(2) study area in northern Ethiopia. Visible evidence of environmental changes apparent from the paired photographs was analyzed using an expert rating system. The conditions of the woody vegetation, soil and water conservation structures and land management were worse in the earlier periods compared to their present conditions. The cover by indigenous trees is a notable exception: it peaked in the 1930s, declined afterwards and then achieved a second peak in the early 21st century. Particularly in areas with greater population densities, there has been a significant increase in woody vegetation and soil and water conservation structures over the course of the study period. We conclude that except for an apparent upward movement of the upper tree limit, the direct human impacts on the environment are overriding the effects of climate change in the north Ethiopian highlands and that the northern Ethiopian highlands are currently greener than at any other time in the last 145 years.

Landform and surface attributes for prediction of rodent burrows in the Western Usambara Mountains, Tanzania.

Previous studies suggest that rodent burrows, a proxy for rodent population are important for predicting plague risk areas. However, studies that link landform, surface attributes and rodent burrows in the Western Usambara Mountains in Tanzania are scanty. Therefore, this study was conducted in plague endemic area of the Western Usambara Mountains in northern, Tanzania, to explore the relationship between rodent burrows, and landform and surface attributes. The study was carried out in three areas corresponding to high (Lokome), medium (Lukozi) and low.(Mwangoi) frequency of reported plague cases. Data were collected from 117, 200 and 170 observation sites for Lokome, Lukozi and Mwangoi, respectively using 100 m x 200 m quadrats. Remote sensing and field surveys were used to collect data on landform and surface attributes. Rodent burrows were surveyed and quantified by counting the number of burrows in 20m x 20m grids demarcated on the main 100m x 200m quadrats. The collected data were analysed in R software using boosted regression trees (BRT) technique. Rodent burrows were found at an elevation of above 1600m in the high and medium plague frequency landscapes. No burrows were found in the low plague frequency landscape situated below 1500m. BRT analysis shows a significant relationship between landform characteristics and rodent burrows in both high and medium plague frequency landscapes. Overall, elevation and hillshade are the most important determinants of rodent burrow distribution in the studied landscapes. It is concluded that in high altitudes, specific landform attributes (hill-shade, slope, elevation) and vegetation cover- favour rodent burrowing.

Predicting potential risk areas of human plague for the Western Usambara Mountains, Lushoto District, Tanzania.

A natural focus of plague exists in the Western Usambara Mountains of Tanzania. Despite intense research, questions remain as to why and how plague emerges repeatedly in the same suite of villages. We used human plague incidence data for 1986-2003 in an ecological-niche modeling framework to explore the geographic distribution and ecology of human plague. Our analyses indicate that plague occurrence is related directly to landscape-scale environmental features, yielding a predictive understanding of one set of environmental factors affecting plague transmission in East Africa. Although many environmental variables contribute significantly to these models, the most important are elevation and Enhanced Vegetation Index derivatives. Projections of these models across broader regions predict only 15.5% (under a majority-rule threshold) or 31,997 km(2) of East Africa as suitable for plague transmission, but they successfully anticipate most known foci in the region, making possible the development of a risk map of plague.

Plague and the human flea, Tanzania.

Domestic fleas were collected in 12 villages in the western Usambara Mountains in Tanzania. Of these, 7 are considered villages with high plague frequency, where human plague was recorded during at least 6 of the 17 plague seasons between 1986 and 2004. In the remaining 5 villages with low plague frequency, plague was either rare or unrecorded. Pulex irritans, known as the human flea, was the predominant flea species (72.4%) in houses. The density of P. irritans, but not of other domestic fleas, was significantly higher in villages with a higher plague frequency or incidence. Moreover, the P. irritans index was strongly positively correlated with plague frequency and with the logarithmically transformed plague incidence. These observations suggest that in Lushoto District human fleas may play a role in plague epidemiology. These findings are of immediate public health relevance because they provide an indicator that can be surveyed to assess the risk for plague.