Modeling between-population variation in COVID-19 dynamics in Hubei, Lombardy, and New York City.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, formulating targeted policy interventions that are informed by differential severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission dynamics will be of vital importance to national and regional governments. We develop an individual-level model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that accounts for location-dependent distributions of age, household structure, and comorbidities. We use these distributions together with age-stratified contact matrices to instantiate specific models for Hubei, China; Lombardy, Italy; and New York City, United States. Using data on reported deaths to obtain a posterior distribution over unknown parameters, we infer differences in the progression of the epidemic in the three locations. We also examine the role of transmission due to particular age groups on total infections and deaths. The effect of limiting contacts by a particular age group varies by location, indicating that strategies to reduce transmission should be tailored based on population-specific demography and social structure. These findings highlight the role of between-population variation in formulating policy interventions. Across the three populations, though, we find that targeted "salutary sheltering" by 50% of a single age group may substantially curtail transmission when combined with the adoption of physical distancing measures by the rest of the population.

Evolving Face Mask Guidance During a Pandemic and Potential Harm to Public Perception: Infodemiology Study of Sentiment and Emotion on Twitter.

BACKGROUND: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention policies on face mask use fluctuated. Understanding how public health communications evolve around key policy decisions may inform future decisions on preventative measures by aiding the design of communication strategies (eg, wording, timing, and channel) that ensure rapid dissemination and maximize both widespread adoption and sustained adherence. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess how sentiment on masks evolved surrounding 2 changes to mask guidelines: (1) the recommendation for mask use on April 3, 2020, and (2) the relaxation of mask use on May 13, 2021. METHODS: We applied an interrupted time series method to US Twitter data surrounding each guideline change. Outcomes were changes in the (1) proportion of positive, negative, and neutral tweets and (2) number of words within a tweet tagged with a given emotion (eg, trust). Results were compared to COVID-19 Twitter data without mask keywords for the same period. RESULTS: There were fewer neutral mask-related tweets in 2020 (ß=-3.94 percentage points, 95% CI -4.68 to -3.21; P<.001) and 2021 (ß=-8.74, 95% CI -9.31 to -8.17; P<.001). Following the April 3 recommendation (ß=.51, 95% CI .43-.59; P<.001) and May 13 relaxation (ß=3.43, 95% CI 1.61-5.26; P<.001), the percent of negative mask-related tweets increased. The quantity of trust-related terms decreased following the policy change on April 3 (ß=-.004, 95% CI -.004 to -.003; P<.001) and May 13 (ß=-.001, 95% CI -.002 to 0; P=.008). CONCLUSIONS: The US Twitter population responded negatively and with less trust following guideline shifts related to masking, regardless of whether the guidelines recommended or relaxed mask usage. Federal agencies should ensure that changes in public health recommendations are communicated concisely and rapidly.

Otolaryngologic manifestations among MPOX patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: MPOX has numerous otolaryngologic presentations that have been recognized as clinically important, especially with the onset of the 2022 outbreak. However, how these features vary across region and outbreak have yet to be elucidated or supported by meta-analysis. The objective of this study is to identify the otolaryngologic manifestations of MPOX across previous and current outbreaks and among endemic and non-endemic regions. BASIC PROCEDURES: Data sources of MEDLINE (PubMed), the Cochrane Library, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and OpenGrey were searched through August 2022. All observational studies reporting data on laboratory-confirmed MPOX patients with otolaryngologic symptoms were included. Two authors independently performed the screening process while a third resolved disagreements. Data were extracted into a structured form by two authors independently. We performed a meta-analysis of the prevalence of otorhinolaryngologic symptoms using MetaXL software (version 5.3) under a random-effects model. MAIN FINDINGS: 38 studies with 5952 patients were included. The four most prevalent manifestations were headache at 31 % (95 % CI [0.16-0.49], I 2  = 99 %), sore throat at 22 % (95 % CI [0.09-0.37], I 2  = 99 %), cough at 16 % (95 % CI [0.05-0.30], I 2  = 99 %), and cervical lymphadenopathy at 10 % (95 % CI [0.01-0.26], I 2  = 100 %). Otolaryngologic features were more prevalent in previous outbreaks as compared to the 2022 outbreak including 37 % prevalence of headache (95 % CI [0.11-0.66], I 2  = 100 %), 33 % prevalence of cough (95 % CI [0.21-0.47], I 2  = 98 %), 27 % prevalence of sore throat (95 % CI [0.07-0.53], I 2  = 99 %), 15 % prevalence of cervical lymphadenopathy (95 % CI [0.00-0.428], I 2  = 100 %), 13 % prevalence of oral ulcers (95 % CI [0.02-0.30], I 2  = 99 %), 6 % prevalence of oral exanthem (95 % CI [0.00-0.17], I 2  = 99 %), 5 % prevalence of dysphagia (95 % CI [0.00-0.18], I 2  = 99 %), and 5 % prevalence of tonsillar signs (95 % CI [0.00-0.13], I 2  = 99 %). Features that were more prevalent in endemic areas versus non-endemic areas include 27 % prevalence of cough (95 % CI [0.14-0.41], I 2  = 99 %), 15 % prevalence of oral ulcers (95 % CI [0.02-0.36], I 2  = 99 %), 6 % prevalence of tonsillar signs (95 % CI [0.00-0.18], I 2  = 99 %), and 19 % prevalence of cervical lymphadenopathy (95 % CI [0.00-0.48], I 2  = 100 %), while the only feature more prevalent in non-endemic areas was headache with a prevalence of 36 % (95 % CI [0.24-0.47], I 2  = 96 %). PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, four symptoms - headache, sore throat, cough, and cervical lymphadenopathy - were found to be the most prevalent otolaryngologic features of MPOX. Otolaryngologic manifestations of MPOX were more pronounced in prior outbreaks and in endemic areas as compared to the 2022 outbreak and non-endemic areas. These findings may aid MPOX recognition in an otolaryngology setting.

Misinformation and Disinformation: The Potential Disadvantages of Social Media in Infectious Disease and How to Combat Them.

Although the use of social media to spread misinformation and disinformation is not a new concept, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has further highlighted the dangers that misinformation can pose to public health. More than two-thirds of Americans receive their news from at least 1 social media outlet, most of which do not undergo the same review process as academic journals and some professional news organizations. Unfortunately, this can lead to inaccurate health information being conveyed as truth. The purpose of this article is to inform the infectious diseases community of the history and dangers of health misinformation and disinformation in social media, present tools for identifying and responding to misinformation, and propose other ethical considerations for social media.

Viral Hepatitis E Outbreaks in Refugees and Internally Displaced Populations, sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020.

Hepatitis E virus is a common cause of acute viral hepatitis. We analyzed reports of hepatitis E outbreaks among forcibly displaced populations in sub-Saharan Africa during 2010-2020. Twelve independent outbreaks occurred, and >30,000 cases were reported. Transmission was attributed to poor sanitation and overcrowding.

Bending the epidemic curve: advancements and opportunities to reduce the threat of emerging pathogens.

This invited editorial introduces a special issue of Epidemiology & Infection while also discussing advances in emerging infectious diseases.

JYNNEOS Vaccine for Mpox.

This JAMA Patient Page describes the eligibility, safety and effectiveness, and administration procedure for the JYNNEOS vaccine for mpox infection.

Compassionate Use of Tecovirimat for the Treatment of Monkeypox Infection.

This case series describes the clinical resolution of systemic symptoms and lesions, along with any adverse events, in patients with monkeypox infection who were treated with tecovirimat on a compassionate use basis.