Prevalence and predictors of chronic kidney disease of undetermined causes (CKDu) in Western Kenya's "sugar belt": a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemics of chronic kidney disease of undetermined causes (CKDu) among young male agricultural workers have been observed in many tropical regions. Western Kenya has similar climatic and occupational characteristics as many of those areas. The study objectives were to characterize prevalence and predictors of CKDu, such as, HIV, a known cause of CKD, in a sugarcane growing region of Kenya; and to estimate prevalence of CKDu across occupational categories and evaluate if physically demanding work or sugarcane work are associated with reduced eGFR. METHODS: The Disadvantaged Populations eGFR Epidemiology Study (DEGREE) protocol was followed in a cross-sectional study conducted in Kisumu County, Western Kenya. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of reduced eGFR. RESULTS: Among 782 adults the prevalence of eGFR < 90 was 9.85%. Among the 612 participants without diabetes, hypertension, and heavy proteinuria the prevalence of eGFR < 90 was 8.99% (95%CI 6.8%, 11.5%) and 0.33% (95%CI 0.04%, 1.2%) had eGFR < 60. Among the 508 participants without known risk factors for reduced eGFR (including HIV), the prevalence of eGFR < 90 was 5.12% (95%CI 3.4%, 7.4%); none had eGFR < 60. Significant risk factors for reduced eGFR were sublocation, age, body mass index, and HIV. No association was found between reduced eGFR and work in the sugarcane industry, as a cane cutter, or in physically demanding occupations. CONCLUSION: CKDu is not a common public health problem in this population, and possibly this region. We recommend that future studies should consider HIV to be a known cause of reduced eGFR. Factors other than equatorial climate and work in agriculture may be important determinants of CKDu epidemics.

Predictors of Water Lead Levels in Drinking Water of Homes With Domestic Wells in 3 Illinois Counties.

CONTEXT: Millions of US homes receive water from private wells, which are not required to be tested for lead (Pb). An approach to prioritizing high-risk homes for water lead level (WLL) testing may help focus outreach and screening efforts, while reducing the testing of homes at low risk. OBJECTIVE: To (1) characterize distribution of WLLs and corrosivity in tap water of homes with private residential wells, and (2) develop and evaluate a screening strategy for predicting Pb detection within a home. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: Three Illinois counties: Kane (northern), Peoria (central), and Jackson (southern). PARTICIPANTS: 151 private well users from 3 Illinois counties. INTERVENTION: Water samples were analyzed for WLL and corrosivity. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) WLL and corrosivity, and (2) the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value of a strategy for prioritizing homes for WLL testing. RESULTS: Pb was detected (>0.76 ppb) in tap water of 48.3% homes, and 3.3% exceeded 15 ppb, the US Environmental Protection Agency action level for community water systems. Compared with homes built in/after 1987 with relatively low corrosivity, older homes with more corrosive water were far more likely to contain measurable Pb (odds ratio = 11.07; 95% confidence interval, 3.47-35.31). The strategy for screening homes with private wells for WLL had a sensitivity of 88%, specificity of 42%, positive predictive value of 58%, and negative predictive value of 80%. CONCLUSIONS: Pb in residential well water is widespread. The screening strategy for prioritizing homes with private wells for WLL testing is greater than 85% sensitive.

A Pilot Study of Chicago Waterways as Reservoirs of Multidrug-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae (MDR-Ent) in a High-Risk Region for Community-Acquired MDR-Ent Infection in Children.

Community-acquired multidrug resistant Enterobacteriaceae (MDR-Ent) infections continue to increase in the United States. In prior studies, we identified neighboring regions in Chicago, Illinois, where children have 5 to 6 times greater odds of MDR-Ent infections. To prevent community spread of MDR-Ent, we need to identify the MDR-Ent reservoirs. A pilot study of 4 Chicago waterways for MDR-Ent and associated antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) was conducted. Three waterways (A1 to A3) are labeled safe for "incidental contact recreation" (e.g., kayaking), and A4 is a nonrecreational waterway that carries nondisinfected water. Surface water samples were collected and processed for standard bacterial culture and shotgun metagenomic sequencing. Generally, A3 and A4 (neighboring waterways which are not hydraulically connected) were strikingly similar in bacterial taxa, ARG profiles, and abundances of corresponding clades and genera within the Enterobacteriaceae Additionally, total ARG abundances recovered from the full microbial community were strongly correlated between A3 and A4 (R2 = 0.97). Escherichia coli numbers (per 100 ml water) were highest in A4 (783 most probable number [MPN]) and A3 (200 MPN) relative to A2 (84 MPN) and A1 (32 MPN). We found concerning ARGs in Enterobacteriaceae such as MCR-1 (colistin), Qnr and OqxA/B (quinolones), CTX-M, OXA and ACT/MIR (beta-lactams), and AAC (aminoglycosides). We found significant correlations in microbial community composition between nearby waterways that are not hydraulically connected, suggesting cross-seeding and the potential for mobility of ARGs. Enterobacteriaceae and ARG profiles support the hypothesized concerns that recreational waterways are a potential source of community-acquired MDR-Ent.

Minigrants to Local Health Departments: An Opportunity to Promote Climate Change Preparedness.

CONTEXT: Human health is threatened by climate change. While the public health workforce is concerned about climate change, local health department (LHD) administrators have reported insufficient knowledge and resources to address climate change. Minigrants from state to LHDs have been used to promote a variety of local public health initiatives. OBJECTIVE: To describe the minigrant approach used by state health departments implementing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework, to highlight successes of this approach in promoting climate change preparedness at LHDs, and to describe challenges encountered. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey and discussion. INTERVENTION: State-level recipients of CDC funding issued minigrants to local public health entities to promote climate change preparedness, adaptation, and resilience. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The amount of funding, number of LHDs funded per state, goals, selection process, evaluation process, outcomes, successes, and challenges of the minigrant programs. RESULTS: Six state-level recipients of CDC funding for BRACE framework implementation awarded minigrants ranging from $7700 to $28 500 per year to 44 unique local jurisdictions. Common goals of the minigrants included capacity building, forging partnerships with entities outside of health departments, incorporating climate change information into existing programs, and developing adaptation plans. Recipients of minigrants reported increases in knowledge, engagement with diverse stakeholders, and the incorporation of climate change content into existing programs. Challenges included addressing climate change in regions where the topic is politically sensitive, as well as the uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of local projects beyond the term of minigrant support. CONCLUSIONS: Minigrants can increase local public health capacity to address climate change. Jurisdictions that wish to utilize minigrant mechanisms to promote climate change adaptation and preparedness at the local level may benefit from the experience of the 6 states and 44 local health programs described.

Estimate of incidence and cost of recreational waterborne illness on United States surface waters.

BACKGROUND: Activities such as swimming, paddling, motor-boating, and fishing are relatively common on US surface waters. Water recreators have a higher rate of acute gastrointestinal illness, along with other illnesses including respiratory, ear, eye, and skin symptoms, compared to non-water recreators. The quantity and costs of such illnesses are unknown on a national scale. METHODS: Recreational waterborne illness incidence and severity were estimated using data from prospective cohort studies of water recreation, reports of recreational waterborne disease outbreaks, and national water recreation statistics. Costs associated with medication use, healthcare provider visits, emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, lost productivity, long-term sequelae, and mortality were aggregated. RESULTS: An estimated 4 billion surface water recreation events occur annually, resulting in an estimated 90 million illnesses nationwide and costs of $2.2- $3.7 billion annually (central 90% of values). Illnesses of moderate severity (visit to a health care provider or ED) were responsible for over 65% of the economic burden (central 90% of values: $1.4- $2.4 billion); severe illnesses (result in hospitalization or death) were responsible for approximately 8% of the total economic burden (central 90% of values: $108- $614 million). CONCLUSION: Recreational waterborne illnesses are associated with a substantial economic burden. These findings may be useful in cost-benefit analysis for water quality improvement and other risk reduction initiatives.

Monitoring urban beaches with qPCR vs. culture measures of fecal indicator bacteria: Implications for public notification.

BACKGROUND: The United States Environmental Protection Agency has established methods for testing beach water using the rapid quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) method, as well as "beach action values" so that the results of such testing can be used to make same-day beach management decisions. Despite its numerous advantages over culture-based monitoring approaches, qPCR monitoring has yet to become widely used in the US or elsewhere. Considering qPCR results obtained on a given day as the best available measure of that day's water quality, we evaluated the frequency of correct vs. incorrect beach management decisions that are driven by culture testing. METHODS: Beaches in Chicago, USA, were monitored using E. coli culture and enterococci qPCR methods over 894 beach-days in the summers of 2015 and 2016. Agreement in beach management using the two methods, after taking into account agreement due to chance, was summarized using Cohen's kappa statistic. RESULTS: No meaningful agreement (beyond that expected by chance) was observed between beach management actions driven by the two pieces of information available to beach managers on a given day: enterococci qPCR results ofsamples collected that morning and E. coli culture results of samples collected the previous day. The E. coli culture beach action value was exceeded 3.4 times more frequently than the enterococci qPCR beach action value (22.6 vs. 6.6% of beach-days). CONCLUSIONS: The largest evaluation of qPCR-based beach monitoring to date provides little scientific rationale for continued E. coli culture testing of beach water in our setting. The observation that the E. coli culture beach action value was exceeded three times as frequently as the enterococci qPCR beach action value suggests that, although the beach action values for bacteria using different measurement methods are thought to provide comparable information about health risk, this does not appear to be the case in all settings.

Hospitalizations for heat-stress illness varies between rural and urban areas: an analysis of Illinois data, 1987-2014.

BACKGROUND: The disease burden due to heat-stress illness (HSI), which can result in significant morbidity and mortality, is expected to increase as the climate continues to warm. In the United States (U.S.) much of what is known about HSI epidemiology is from analyses of urban heat waves. There is limited research addressing whether HSI hospitalization risk varies between urban and rural areas, nor is much known about additional diagnoses of patients hospitalized for HSI. METHODS: Hospitalizations in Illinois for HSI (ICD-9-CM codes 992.x or E900) in the months of May through September from 1987 to 2014 (n = 8667) were examined. Age-adjusted mean monthly hospitalization rates were calculated for each county using U.S. Census population data. Counties were categorized into five urban-rural strata using Rural Urban Continuum Codes (RUCC) (RUCC1, most urbanized to RUCC5, thinly populated). Average maximum monthly temperature (°C) was calculated for each county using daily data. Multi-level linear regression models were used, with county as the fixed effect and temperature as random effect, to model monthly hospitalization rates, adjusting for the percent of county population below the poverty line, percent of population that is Non-Hispanic Black, and percent of the population that is Hispanic. All analyses were stratified by county RUCC. Additional diagnoses of patients hospitalized for HSI and charges for hospitalization were summarized. RESULTS: Highest rates of HSI hospitalizations were seen in the most rural, thinly populated stratum (mean annual summer hospitalization rate of 1.16 hospitalizations per 100,000 population in the thinly populated strata vs. 0.45 per 100,000 in the metropolitan urban strata). A one-degree Celsius increase in maximum monthly average temperature was associated with a 0.34 increase in HSI hospitalization rate per 100,000 population in the thinly populated counties compared with 0.02 per 100,000 in highly urbanized counties. The most common additional diagnoses of patients hospitalized with HSI were dehydration, electrolyte abnormalities, and acute renal disorders. Total and mean hospital charges for HSI cases were $167.7 million and $20,500 (in 2014 US dollars). CONCLUSION: Elevated temperatures appear to have different impacts on HSI hospitalization rates as function of urbanization. The most rural and the most urbanized counties of Illinois had the largest increases in monthly hospitalization rates for HSI per unit increase in the average monthly maximum temperature. This suggests that vulnerability of communities to heat is complex and strategies to reduce HSI may need to be tailored to the degree of urbanization of a county.

Water recreation and illness severity.

The health endpoint of prior studies of water recreation has been the occurrence of gastrointestinal (GI) illness. This dichotomous measure fails to take into account the range of symptom severity among those with GI illness, and those who develop GI symptoms but who do not satisfy the definition of GI illness. Data from two US cohort studies were used to assess use of ordinal and semi-continuous measures of GI symptoms, such as duration of GI symptoms and responses to those symptoms such as medication use, interference with daily activities, and utilization of healthcare service. Zero-inflated negative binomial and logistic regression models were used to assess associations between severity and either the degree of water exposure or water quality. Among 37,404 water recreators without baseline GI symptoms, we observed individuals with relatively low severity satisfying the case definition of GI illness, while others with high severity not satisfying that definition. Severity metrics were associated with water exposure. The dichotomous GI illness outcome could be improved by considering symptom severity in future studies. Modeling ordinal and semi-continuous outcomes may improve our understanding of determinants of the burden of illness rather than simply the number of cases of illness attributable to environmental exposures.

Moving into green healthy housing.

BACKGROUND: Green building systems have proliferated but health outcomes and associated costs and benefits remain poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To compare health before and after families moved into new green healthy housing with a control group in traditionally repaired housing. DESIGN AND SETTING: Mixed methods study in 3 Chicago housing developments. PARTICIPANTS: Public housing and low-income subsidized households (n = 325 apartments with 803 individuals). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported health status, visual assessment of housing condition, indoor air sampling, and Medicaid expenditure and diagnostic data. Medicaid expenditures and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes were modeled using a generalized linear model with γ distribution and log-link. RESULTS: Housing conditions and self-reported physical and mental health improved significantly in the green healthy housing study group compared with both the control group and the dilapidated public housing from which the residents moved, as did hay fever, headaches, sinusitis, angina, and respiratory allergy. Asthma severity measured by self-reported lost school/work days, disturbed sleep, and symptoms improved significantly, as did sadness, nervousness, restlessness, and child behavior. Medicaid data in this exploratory study were inconclusive and inconsistent with self-reported health outcomes and visual assessment data on housing quality but hold promise for future investigation. Possible sources of bias in the Medicaid data include older age in the study group, changes in Medicaid eligibility over time, controlling for Medicaid costs in an urban area, and the increased stress associated with moving, even if the move is into better housing. CONCLUSION: The mixed method approach employed here describes the complex relationships among self-reported health, housing conditions, environmental measures, and clinical data. Housing conditions and self-reported physical and mental health improved in green healthy housing. Health care cost savings in Medicaid due to improved housing could not be quantified here but hold promise for future investigations with larger cohorts over a longer follow-up period.

Receiver-operating characteristics analysis: a new approach to predicting the presence of pathogens in surface waters.

Fecal indicator microbes are used to monitor the public health risks of recreating in surface waters. However, the importance of indicator tests as predictors of waterborne pathogens has been unclear. Numerous studies have also shown that the survival and growth of indicator organisms may depend on location-specific factors that cannot be broadly generalized. We used receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) methods to determine whether fecal indicator species are capable of predicting the presence of Giardia and Cryptosporidium in fresh surface waters in the Chicago area. We also derived recreational water quality criteria specific to our location with respect to this end point. We considered five fecal indicators: enterococci measured by culture and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), Escherichia coli measured by culture, somatic coliphage, and F+ coliphage. All fecal indicators were found to predict the presence and absence of protozoan pathogens. The test for enterococci measured by culture was the poorest predictor of the presence of pathogens. The test for enterococci measured by qPCR was the best predictor of the presence of Giardia, but not an important predictor of the presence of Cryptosporidium. The test for somatic coliphage was a relatively strong predictor of the presence of both pathogens. This analysis supports the use of qPCR-based assays over culture-based assays for predicting the presence of Giardia in fresh surface water. Our criteria were optimized for the prediction of the presence of Giardia and Cryptosporidium in our location and were closely aligned with criteria of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency derived from epidemiological risk assessment. The ROC approach is flexible and can inform location-specific interpretation of water quality monitoring data and decision making.

A Framework for Evaluating Local Adaptive Capacity to Health Impacts of Climate Change: Use of Kenya's County-Level Integrated Development Plans.

Background: Health National Adaptation Plans were developed to increase the capacity of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to adapt to the impacts of climate change on the health sector. Climate and its health impacts vary locally, yet frameworks for evaluating the adaptive capacity of health systems on the subnational scale are lacking. In Kenya, counties prepare county integrated development plans (CIDPs), which contain information that might support evaluations of the extent to which counties are planning climate change adaptation for health. Objectives: To develop and apply a framework for evaluating CIDPs to assess the extent to which Kenya's counties are addressing the health sector's adaptive capacity to climate change. Methods: CIDPs were analyzed based on the extent to which they addressed climate change in their description of county health status, whether health is noted in their descriptions of climate change, and whether they mention plans for developing climate and health programs. Based on these and other data points, composite climate and health adaptation (CHA) scores were calculated. Associations between CHA scores and poverty rates were analyzed. Findings: CHA scores varied widely and were not associated with county-level poverty. Nearly all CIDPs noted climate change, approximately half mentioned health in the context of climate change and only 16 (34%) noted one or more specific climate-sensitive health conditions. Twelve (25%) had plans for a sub-program in both adaptive capacity and environmental health. Among the 24 counties with plans to develop climate-related programs in health programs, all specified capacity building, and 20% specified integrating health into disaster risk reduction. Conclusion: Analyses of county planning documents provide insights into the extent to which the impacts of climate change on health are being addressed at the subnational level in Kenya. This approach may support governments elsewhere in evaluating climate change adaptation for health by subnational governments.

Repeated home drinking water sampling to improve detection of particulate lead spikes: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Lead can be present in drinking water in soluble and particulate forms. The intermittent release of lead particulates in drinking water can produce highly variable water lead levels (WLLs) in individual homes, a health concern because both particulate and soluble lead are bioavailable. More frequent water sampling would increase the likelihood of identifying sporadic lead "spikes," though little information is available to aid in estimating how many samples are needed to achieve a given degree of sensitivity to spike detection. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of rounds of tap water sampling needed to determine with a given level of confidence that an individual household is at low risk for the intermittent release of lead particulates. METHODS: We simulated WLLs for 100,000 homes on 15 rounds of sampling under a variety of assumptions about lead spike release. A Markovian structure was used to describe WLLs for individual homes on subsequent rounds of sampling given a set of transitional probabilities, in which homes with higher WLLs at baseline were more likely to exhibit a spike on repeated sampling. RESULTS: Assuming 2% of homes had a spike on the first round of sampling and a mid-range estimate of transitional probabilities, the initial round of sampling had a 6.4% sensitivity to detect a spike. Seven rounds of sampling would be needed to increase the sensitivity to 50%, which would leave unrecognized the more than 15,000 homes that intermittently exhibit spikes. SIGNIFICANCE: For assessing household risk for lead exposure through drinking water, multiple rounds of water sampling are needed to detect the infrequent but high spikes in WLLs due to particulate release. Water sampling procedures for assessment of lead exposure in individual homes should be modified to account for the infrequent but high spikes in WLL. IMPACT: It has been known for decades that intermittent "spikes" in water lead occur due to the sporadic release of lead particulates. However, conventional water sampling strategies do not account for these infrequent but hazardous events. This research suggests that current approaches to sampling tap water for lead testing identify only a small fraction of homes in which particulate spikes occur, and that sampling procedures should be changed substantially to increase the probability of identifying the hazard of particulate lead release into drinking water.

IEUBK Modeling of Children's Blood Lead Levels in Homes Served by Private Domestic Wells in Three Illinois Counties.

Lead is known to impair neurocognitive development in children. Drinking water is routinely monitored for lead content in municipal systems, but private well owners are not required to test for lead. The lack of testing poses a risk of lead exposure and resulting health effects to rural children. In three Illinois counties, we conducted a cross-sectional study (n = 151 homes) examining water lead levels (WLLs), water consumption, and water treatment status to assess risk of lead exposure among residents using private water wells. Since blood lead levels (BLLs) were not available, EPA's Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) modeling was used to estimate the incremental contribution of WLL to BLL, holding all other sources of lead at their default values. Nearly half (48.3%) of stagnant water samples contained measurable lead ranging from 0.79 to 76.2 µg/L (median= 0.537 µg/L). IEUBK modeling showed BLLs rose from 0.3 to 0.4 µg/dL when WLLs rose from 0.54 µg/L (the tenth percentile) to 4.88 µg/L (the 90th percentile). Based on IEUBK modeling, 18% of children with a WLL at the 10th percentile would have a BLL above 3.5 µg/dL compared to 27.4% of those with a WLL at the 90th percentile. These findings suggest that the consumption of unfiltered well water likely results in increased blood lead levels in children.

Associations between obesity and asthma in a low-income, urban, minority population.

BACKGROUND: Community-based studies of obesity, asthma, biomarkers of oxidative stress, and adipokines among low-income, urban, minority populations are lacking. Oxidative stress, perhaps modulated by adipokines, may increase airway inflammation in obese individuals. OBJECTIVES: To characterize associations between obesity and asthma in a low-income, urban, minority community and evaluate adipokines, biomarkers of inflammation, and oxidant-antioxidant balance in association with asthma and obesity. METHODS: A door-to-door evaluation of asthma and obesity prevalence was performed in a low-income housing development. Nonsmoking adults and children underwent additional evaluation, including allergy skin testing, and measures of serum adipokines, and indicators of oxidative stress in blood and exhaled breath. RESULTS: The prevalences of current asthma and a body mass index in the 85th percentile or higher were 15.8% and 35.3%, respectively, among 350 nonsmokers older than 4 years. Asthma and obesity were not associated with one another (odds ratio, 1.0; 95% confidence interval, 0.55-1.84). Among 116 nonsmoking participants who underwent biomarker evaluation, obesity was not associated with exhaled nitric oxide. In multivariate logistic models that adjusted for age category, sex, and a body mass index in 85th percentile or higher, leptin concentrations in the highest quartile were associated with asthma (odds ratio, 8.34; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-50.2) but not with atopy. Adiponectin was associated with total antioxidant capacity in exhaled breath. CONCLUSION: Asthma and obesity, although both common in a low-income, minority community, were not associated with one another. Nevertheless, adipokines were associated with asthma status and with markers of oxidative stress in the lungs, providing some support for an adipokine-inflammatory mechanistic link between the two conditions.

Improving water quality communications at beaches: input from stakeholders.

OBJECTIVES: Water quality communication practices vary widely and stakeholder input has not played a role in defining acceptable levels of risk. Although the 2012 Recreational Water Quality Criteria (RWQC) emphasize the importance of promptly notifying the public about hazardous conditions, little is known about the public's understanding of notifications, or about levels of risk deemed acceptable. We sought to address these gaps. METHODS: A mixed methods approach was used. Focus groups (FGs) provided qualitative data regarding the understanding of surface water quality, awareness, and use, of currently available water quality information, and acceptability of risk. Intercept interviews (INTs) at recreation sites provided quantitative data. RESULTS: INTs of 374 people and 15 FG sessions were conducted. Participants had limited awareness about water quality information posted at beaches, even during swim bans and advisories. Participants indicated that communication content should be current, from a trusted source, and describe health consequences. Communicating via mobile electronics should be useful for segments of the population. Risk acceptability is lower with greater outcome severity, or if children are impacted. CONCLUSIONS: Current water quality communications approaches must be enhanced to make notification programs more effective. Further work should build on this initial effort to evaluate risk acceptability among US beachgoers.

Hydrometeorological variables predict fecal indicator bacteria densities in freshwater: data-driven methods for variable selection.

Statistical models of microbial water quality inform risk management for water recreation. Current research focuses on resource-intensive, location-specific data collection and water quality modeling, but this approach may be cost-prohibitive for risk managers responsible for numerous recreation sites. As an alternative, we tested the ability of two data-driven models, tree regression and random forests with conditional inference trees, to select readily available hydrometeorological variables for use in linear mixed effects (LME) models predicting bacterial density. The study included the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS) and Lake Michigan beaches and harbors in Chicago, Illinois, at which Escherichia coli and enterococci were measured seasonally in 2007-2009. Tree regression node variables reduced data dimensionality by >50 %. Variable importance ranks from random forests were used in a forward-step selection based on R (2) and root mean squared prediction error (RMSPE). We found two to three variables explained bacteria densities well relative to random forests with all variables. LME models with tree- or forest-selected variables performed reasonably well (0.335 < R (2) < 0.658). LME models for Lake Michigan had good prediction accuracy with respect to the single sample maximum standard (72-77 %), but limited sensitivity (23-62 %). Results suggest that our alternative approach is feasible and performs similarly to more resource-intensive approaches.

A Web-Based Interactive Map to Promote Health-Care Facility Flood Preparedness.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about how flood risk of health-care facilities (HCFs) is evaluated by emergency preparedness professionals and HCFs administrators. This study assessed knowledge of emergency preparedness and HCF management professionals regarding locations of floodplains in relation to HCFs. A Web-based interactive map of floodplains and HCF was developed and users of the map were asked to evaluate it. METHODS: An online survey was completed by administrators of HCFs and public health emergency preparedness professionals in Illinois, before and after an interactive online map of floodplains and HCFs was provided. RESULTS: Forty Illinois HCFs located in floodplains were identified, including 12 long-term care facilities. Preparedness professionals have limited knowledge of whether local HCFs were in floodplains, and few reported availability of geographic information system (GIS) resources at baseline. Respondents intended to use the interactive map for planning and stakeholder communications. CONCLUSIONS: Given that HCFs are located in floodplains, this first assessment of using interactive maps of floodplains and HCFs may promote a shift to reliable data sources of floodplain locations in relation to HCFs. Similar approaches may be useful in other settings.

Beach communications: a need for evaluation of current approaches.

AIMS: Programs to notify the public about water quality at beaches are developed at the state and local levels. We sought to characterize the messages and message delivery options in use, and information about the effectiveness of these beach notification programs. METHODS: A telephone survey of 37 US state, tribal and territorial and 18 county, city or local beach programs was conducted to characterize current public notification practices and any evaluations of those practices. RESULTS: Beach notification practices vary substantially at the state and local levels. Color-coded signs or flags are commonly used, but not universally, and the color schemes and their meanings vary. New communication approaches utilizing text messaging and the internet are in use or under development for local use. Few communication methods had undergone systematic evaluations of their content, delivery methods or effectiveness in promoting behavior change. CONCLUSION: The prevention of waterborne illness requires communications that effectively promote the avoidance of swimming when water quality is impaired. Current communication practices are variable and generally have not undergone formal evaluations for their effectiveness. It is not known whether or how they impact health risk.