Hydroclimatic changes on multiple timescales since 7800 y BP in the winter precipitation-dominated Central Asia.

Central Asia (CA) is one of the world's most significant arid regions, which is markedly impacted by global warming. A better understanding of the dynamical processes governing its Holocene climate variability is critical for a better understanding of possible future impacts of climate change in the region. To date, most of the existing CA paleoclimate records are from the summer precipitation-dominated eastern CA (ECA), with few records from the winter precipitation-dominated western CA (WCA). Here, we present a precisely dated (~6‰) and highly resolved (<4-y) record of hydroclimatic variations from the WCA covering the period between 7,774 and 656 y BP. Utilizing multiple proxies (δ18O, δ13C, and Sr/Ca) derived from a stalagmite from the Fergana Valley, Kyrgyzstan, we reveal a long-term drying trend in WCA, which is in contrast with the wetting trend in ECA. We propose that different responses of winter and summer westerly jets to seasonal solar insolation over the past 8,000 y may have resulted in an antiphased precipitation relationship between the WCA and ECA. Our data contain dominant quasiperiodicities of 1,400, 50 to 70, and 20 to 30 y, indicating close connections between the WCA climate and the North Atlantic. We further identified a series of droughts and pluvials on centennial-to-decadal timescales, which may have influenced regional societies and trans-Eurasian culture exchanges during historical and prehistorical times.

Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean1-4. The frequency and intensity of positive IOD events increased during the twentieth century5 and may continue to intensify in a warming world6. However, confidence in predictions of future IOD change is limited by known biases in IOD models7 and the lack of information on natural IOD variability before anthropogenic climate change. Here we use precisely dated and highly resolved coral records from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, where the signature of IOD variability is strong and unambiguous, to produce a semi-continuous reconstruction of IOD variability that covers five centuries of the last millennium. Our reconstruction demonstrates that extreme positive IOD events were rare before 1960. However, the most extreme event on record (1997) is not unprecedented, because at least one event that was approximately 27 to 42 per cent larger occurred naturally during the seventeenth century. We further show that a persistent, tight coupling existed between the variability of the IOD and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation during the last millennium. Indo-Pacific coupling was characterized by weak interannual variability before approximately 1590, which probably altered teleconnection patterns, and by anomalously strong variability during the seventeenth century, which was associated with societal upheaval in tropical Asia. A tendency towards clustering of positive IOD events is evident in our reconstruction, which-together with the identification of extreme IOD variability and persistent tropical Indo-Pacific climate coupling-may have implications for improving seasonal and decadal predictions and managing the climate risks of future IOD variability.

Protracted Indian monsoon droughts of the past millennium and their societal impacts.

Protracted droughts lasting years to decades constitute severe threats to human welfare across the Indian subcontinent. Such events are, however, rare during the instrumental period (ca. since 1871 CE). In contrast, the historic documentary evidence indicates the repeated occurrences of protracted droughts in the region during the preinstrumental period implying that either the instrumental observations underestimate the full spectrum of monsoon variability or the historic accounts overestimate the severity and duration of the past droughts. Here we present a temporally precise speleothem-based oxygen isotope reconstruction of the Indian summer monsoon precipitation variability from Mawmluh cave located in northeast India. Our data reveal that protracted droughts, embedded within multidecadal intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall, frequently occurred over the past millennium. These extreme events are in striking temporal synchrony with the historically documented droughts, famines, mass mortality events, and geopolitical changes in the Indian subcontinent. Our findings necessitate reconsideration of the region's current water resources, sustainability, and mitigation policies that discount the possibility of protracted droughts in the future.

Ancient DNA and multimethod dating confirm the late arrival of anatomically modern humans in southern China.

The expansion of anatomically modern humans (AMHs) from Africa around 65,000 to 45,000 y ago (ca. 65 to 45 ka) led to the establishment of present-day non-African populations. Some paleoanthropologists have argued that fossil discoveries from Huanglong, Zhiren, Luna, and Fuyan caves in southern China indicate one or more prior dispersals, perhaps as early as ca. 120 ka. We investigated the age of the human remains from three of these localities and two additional early AMH sites (Yangjiapo and Sanyou caves, Hubei) by combining ancient DNA (aDNA) analysis with a multimethod geological dating strategy. Although U-Th dating of capping flowstones suggested they lie within the range ca. 168 to 70 ka, analyses of aDNA and direct AMS 14C dating on human teeth from Fuyan and Yangjiapo caves showed they derive from the Holocene. OSL dating of sediments and AMS 14C analysis of mammal teeth and charcoal also demonstrated major discrepancies from the flowstone ages; the difference between them being an order of magnitude or more at most of these localities. Our work highlights the surprisingly complex depositional history recorded at these subtropical caves which involved one or more episodes of erosion and redeposition or intrusion as recently as the late Holocene. In light of our findings, the first appearance datum for AMHs in southern China should probably lie within the timeframe set by molecular data of ca. 50 to 45 ka.

Hydroclimate changes across the Amazon lowlands over the past 45,000 years.

Reconstructing the history of tropical hydroclimates has been difficult, particularly for the Amazon basin-one of Earth's major centres of deep atmospheric convection. For example, whether the Amazon basin was substantially drier or remained wet during glacial times has been controversial, largely because most study sites have been located on the periphery of the basin, and because interpretations can be complicated by sediment preservation, uncertainties in chronology, and topographical setting. Here we show that rainfall in the basin responds closely to changes in glacial boundary conditions in terms of temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. Our results are based on a decadally resolved, uranium/thorium-dated, oxygen isotopic record for much of the past 45,000 years, obtained using speleothems from Paraíso Cave in eastern Amazonia; we interpret the record as being broadly related to precipitation. Relative to modern levels, precipitation in the region was about 58% during the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) and 142% during the mid-Holocene epoch (about 6,000 years ago). We find that, as compared with cave records from the western edge of the lowlands, the Amazon was widely drier during the last glacial period, with much less recycling of water and probably reduced plant transpiration, although the rainforest persisted throughout this time.

Timing and structure of the Younger Dryas event and its underlying climate dynamics.

The Younger Dryas (YD), arguably the most widely studied millennial-scale extreme climate event, was characterized by diverse hydroclimate shifts globally and severe cooling at high northern latitudes that abruptly punctuated the warming trend from the last glacial to the present interglacial. To date, a precise understanding of its trigger, propagation, and termination remains elusive. Here, we present speleothem oxygen-isotope data that, in concert with other proxy records, allow us to quantify the timing of the YD onset and termination at an unprecedented subcentennial temporal precision across the North Atlantic, Asian Monsoon-Westerlies, and South American Monsoon regions. Our analysis suggests that the onsets of YD in the North Atlantic (12,870 ± 30 B.P.) and the Asian Monsoon-Westerlies region are essentially synchronous within a few decades and lead the onset in Antarctica, implying a north-to-south climate signal propagation via both atmospheric (decadal-time scale) and oceanic (centennial-time scale) processes, similar to the Dansgaard-Oeschger events during the last glacial period. In contrast, the YD termination may have started first in Antarctica at ∼11,900 B.P., or perhaps even earlier in the western tropical Pacific, followed by the North Atlantic between ∼11,700 ± 40 and 11,610 ± 40 B.P. These observations suggest that the initial YD termination might have originated in the Southern Hemisphere and/or the tropical Pacific, indicating a Southern Hemisphere/tropics to North Atlantic-Asian Monsoon-Westerlies directionality of climatic recovery.

The Asian monsoon over the past 640,000 years and ice age terminations.

Oxygen isotope records from Chinese caves characterize changes in both the Asian monsoon and global climate. Here, using our new speleothem data, we extend the Chinese record to cover the full uranium/thorium dating range, that is, the past 640,000 years. The record's length and temporal precision allow us to test the idea that insolation changes caused by the Earth's precession drove the terminations of each of the last seven ice ages as well as the millennia-long intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall associated with each of the terminations. On the basis of our record's timing, the terminations are separated by four or five precession cycles, supporting the idea that the '100,000-year' ice age cycle is an average of discrete numbers of precession cycles. Furthermore, the suborbital component of monsoon rainfall variability exhibits power in both the precession and obliquity bands, and is nearly in anti-phase with summer boreal insolation. These observations indicate that insolation, in part, sets the pace of the occurrence of millennial-scale events, including those associated with terminations and 'unfinished terminations'.

Early Neanderthal constructions deep in Bruniquel Cave in southwestern France.

Very little is known about Neanderthal cultures, particularly early ones. Other than lithic implements and exceptional bone tools, very few artefacts have been preserved. While those that do remain include red and black pigments and burial sites, these indications of modernity are extremely sparse and few have been precisely dated, thus greatly limiting our knowledge of these predecessors of modern humans. Here we report the dating of annular constructions made of broken stalagmites found deep in Bruniquel Cave in southwest France. The regular geometry of the stalagmite circles, the arrangement of broken stalagmites and several traces of fire demonstrate the anthropogenic origin of these constructions. Uranium-series dating of stalagmite regrowths on the structures and on burnt bone, combined with the dating of stalagmite tips in the structures, give a reliable and replicated age of 176.5 thousand years (±2.1 thousand years), making these edifices among the oldest known well-dated constructions made by humans. Their presence at 336 metres from the entrance of the cave indicates that humans from this period had already mastered the underground environment, which can be considered a major step in human modernity.

Shallow particulate organic carbon regeneration in the South Pacific Ocean.

Particulate organic carbon (POC) produced in the surface ocean sinks through the water column and is respired at depth, acting as a primary vector sequestering carbon in the abyssal ocean. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are sensitive to the length (depth) scale over which respiration converts POC back to inorganic carbon, because shallower waters exchange with the atmosphere more rapidly than deeper ones. However, estimates of this carbon regeneration length scale and its spatiotemporal variability are limited, hindering the ability to characterize its sensitivity to environmental conditions. Here, we present a zonal section of POC fluxes at high vertical and spatial resolution from the GEOTRACES GP16 transect in the eastern tropical South Pacific, based on normalization to the radiogenic thorium isotope 230Th. We find shallower carbon regeneration length scales than previous estimates for the oligotrophic South Pacific gyre, indicating less efficient carbon transfer to the deep ocean. Carbon regeneration is strongly inhibited within suboxic waters near the Peru coast. Canonical Martin curve power laws inadequately capture POC flux profiles at suboxic stations. We instead fit these profiles using an exponential function with flux preserved at depth, finding shallow regeneration but high POC sequestration below 1,000 m. Both regeneration length scales and POC flux at depth closely track the depths at which oxygen concentrations approach zero. Our findings imply that climate warming will result in reduced ocean carbon storage due to expanding oligotrophic gyres, but opposing effects on ocean carbon storage from expanding suboxic waters will require modeling and future work to disentangle.

Archaic human remains from Hualongdong, China, and Middle Pleistocene human continuity and variation.

Middle to Late Pleistocene human evolution in East Asia has remained controversial regarding the extent of morphological continuity through archaic humans and to modern humans. Newly found ∼300,000-y-old human remains from Hualongdong (HLD), China, including a largely complete skull (HLD 6), share East Asian Middle Pleistocene (MPl) human traits of a low vault with a frontal keel (but no parietal sagittal keel or angular torus), a low and wide nasal aperture, a pronounced supraorbital torus (especially medially), a nonlevel nasal floor, and small or absent third molars. It lacks a malar incisure but has a large superior medial pterygoid tubercle. HLD 6 also exhibits a relatively flat superior face, a more vertical mandibular symphysis, a pronounced mental trigone, and simple occlusal morphology, foreshadowing modern human morphology. The HLD human fossils thus variably resemble other later MPl East Asian remains, but add to the overall variation in the sample. Their configurations, with those of other Middle and early Late Pleistocene East Asian remains, support archaic human regional continuity and provide a background to the subsequent archaic-to-modern human transition in the region.

Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y.

Tropical rainfall variability is closely linked to meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and zonal movements of the Walker circulation. The characteristics and mechanisms of tropical rainfall variations on centennial to decadal scales are, however, still unclear. Here, we reconstruct a replicated stalagmite-based 2,700-y-long, continuous record of rainfall for the deeply convective northern central Indo-Pacific (NCIP) region. Our record reveals decreasing rainfall in the NCIP over the past 2,700 y, similar to other records from the northern tropics. Notable centennial- to decadal-scale dry climate episodes occurred in both the NCIP and the southern central Indo-Pacific (SCIP) during the 20th century [Current Warm Period (CWP)] and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), resembling enhanced El Niño-like conditions. Further, we developed a 2,000-y-long ITCZ shift index record that supports an overall southward ITCZ shift in the central Indo-Pacific and indicates southward mean ITCZ positions during the early MWP and the CWP. As a result, the drying trend since the 20th century in the northern tropics is similar to that observed during the past warm period, suggesting that a possible anthropogenic forcing of rainfall remains indistinguishable from natural variability.

Identification of a Quaternary rock avalanche deposit (Central Apennines, Italy): Significance for recognition of fossil catastrophic mass-wasting.

Whereas deposits of extremely-rapid, 'catastrophic' mass wastings >105 m3 in volume (for example, the Marocche di Dro rock avalanche in the Southern Alps and the Flims rockslide in the Western Alps) are easily recognized by their sheer mass and blocky surface, the identification of fossil catastrophic mass wastings partly removed by erosion must be based on deposit characteristics. Herein, a 'fossil' (pre-last glacial) rock avalanche, previously interpreted as either a till or debris flow, is described. The deposit, informally called 'Rubble Breccia', is located in the intramontane Campo Imperatore halfgraben that is bounded by a master fault with up to ca 900 m topographic throw. Based on documentation from field to thin section, and by comparative analysis with post-glacial rock avalanches, tills and debris flows, the Rubble Breccia is reinterpreted as a rock avalanche. The Rubble Breccia consists of an extremely-poorly sorted, disordered mixture of angular clasts from sand to block size. Many clasts show fitted subclast boundaries in crackle, jigsaw and mosaic fabrics, as diagnostic of catastrophic mass wasting deposits. Intercalated layers of angular to well-rounded clasts of coarse sand to fine pebble size, and deformed into open to recumbent folds, may represent shear belts folded during terminal avalanche propagation. The clast spectrum of the Rubble Breccia - mainly shallow-water bioclastic limestones, Saccocoma wackestones and other deep-water limestones and dolostones - is derived from the front range along the northern margin of the basin. Calcite cement found within the Rubble Breccia was dated with the U/Th disequilibrium method to 124.25 ± 2.76 ka bp, providing an ante-quam age constraint to the rock avalanche event. Because catastrophic mass wasting is a common erosional process, fossil deposits thereof should be more widespread than have been identified to date, although this may be a consequence of misidentification. The criteria outlined here provide a template to identify fossil catastrophic mass wasting deposits of any age.

The earliest unequivocally modern humans in southern China.

The hominin record from southern Asia for the early Late Pleistocene epoch is scarce. Well-dated and well-preserved fossils older than ∼45,000 years that can be unequivocally attributed to Homo sapiens are lacking. Here we present evidence from the newly excavated Fuyan Cave in Daoxian (southern China). This site has provided 47 human teeth dated to more than 80,000 years old, and with an inferred maximum age of 120,000 years. The morphological and metric assessment of this sample supports its unequivocal assignment to H. sapiens. The Daoxian sample is more derived than any other anatomically modern humans, resembling middle-to-late Late Pleistocene specimens and even contemporary humans. Our study shows that fully modern morphologies were present in southern China 30,000-70,000 years earlier than in the Levant and Europe. Our data fill a chronological and geographical gap that is relevant for understanding when H. sapiens first appeared in southern Asia. The Daoxian teeth also support the hypothesis that during the same period, southern China was inhabited by more derived populations than central and northern China. This evidence is important for the study of dispersal routes of modern humans. Finally, our results are relevant to exploring the reasons for the relatively late entry of H. sapiens into Europe. Some studies have investigated how the competition with H. sapiens may have caused Neanderthals' extinction (see ref. 8 and references therein). Notably, although fully modern humans were already present in southern China at least as early as ∼80,000 years ago, there is no evidence that they entered Europe before ∼45,000 years ago. This could indicate that H. neanderthalensis was indeed an additional ecological barrier for modern humans, who could only enter Europe when the demise of Neanderthals had already started.

Speleothem record of geomagnetic South Atlantic Anomaly recurrence.

The diminishing strength of the Earth's magnetic dipole over recent millennia is accompanied by the increasing prominence of the geomagnetic South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), which spreads over the South Atlantic Ocean and South America. The longevity of this feature at millennial timescales is elusive because of the scarcity of continuous geomagnetic data for the region. Here, we report a unique geomagnetic record for the last ∼1500 y that combines the data of two well-dated stalagmites from Pau d'Alho cave, located close to the present-day minimum of the anomaly in central South America. Magnetic directions and relative paleointensity data for both stalagmites are generally consistent and agree with historical data from the last 500 y. Before 1500 CE, the data adhere to the geomagnetic model ARCH3K.1, which is derived solely from archeomagnetic data. Our observations indicate rapid directional variations (>0.1°/y) from approximately 860 to 960 CE and approximately 1450 to 1750 CE. A similar pattern of rapid directional variation observed from South Africa precedes the South American record by 224 ± 50 y. These results confirm that fast geomagnetic field variations linked to the SAA are a recurrent feature in the region. We develop synthetic models of reversed magnetic flux patches at the core-mantle boundary and calculate their expression at the Earth's surface. The models that qualitatively resemble the observational data involve westward (and southward) migration of midlatitude patches, combined with their expansion and intensification.

South American monsoon response to iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic.

Heinrich Stadials significantly affected tropical precipitation through changes in the interhemispheric temperature gradient as a result of abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic. Here, we focus on changes in South American monsoon precipitation during Heinrich Stadials using a suite of speleothem records covering the last 85 ky B.P. from eastern South America. We document the response of South American monsoon precipitation to episodes of extensive iceberg discharge, which is distinct from the response to the cooling episodes that precede the main phase of ice-rafted detritus deposition. Our results demonstrate that iceberg discharge in the western subtropical North Atlantic led to an abrupt increase in monsoon precipitation over eastern South America. Our findings of an enhanced Southern Hemisphere monsoon, coeval with the iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic, are consistent with the observed abrupt increase in atmospheric methane concentrations during Heinrich Stadials.

Mid-latitude interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw over the past 550,000 years.

An interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw--in which latitudinal migrations of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) produce simultaneous wetting (increased precipitation) in one hemisphere and drying in the other--has been discovered in some tropical and subtropical regions. For instance, Chinese and Brazilian subtropical speleothem (cave formations such as stalactites and stalagmites) records show opposite trends in time series of oxygen isotopes (a proxy for precipitation variability) at millennial to orbital timescales, suggesting that hydrologic cycles were antiphased in the northerly versus southerly subtropics. This tropical to subtropical hydrologic phenomenon is likely to be an initial and important climatic response to orbital forcing. The impacts of such an interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw on higher-latitude regions and the global climate system, however, are unknown. Here we show that the antiphasing seen in the tropical records is also present in both hemispheres of the mid-latitude western Pacific Ocean. Our results are based on a new 550,000-year record of the growth frequency of speleothems from the Korean peninsula, which we compare to Southern Hemisphere equivalents. The Korean data are discontinuous and derived from 24 separate speleothems, but still allow the identification of periods of peak speleothem growth and, thus, precipitation. The clear hemispheric antiphasing indicates that the sphere of influence of the interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw over the past 550,000 years extended at least to the mid-latitudes, such as northeast Asia, and that orbital-timescale ITCZ shifts can have serious effects on temperate climate systems. Furthermore, our result implies that insolation-driven ITCZ dynamics may provoke water vapour and vegetation feedbacks in northern mid-latitude regions and could have regulated global climate conditions throughout the late Quaternary ice age cycles.

Abrupt climate changes during Termination III in Southern Europe.

The Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial transitions represent the highest amplitude climate changes over the last million years. Unraveling the sequence of events and feedbacks at Termination III (T-III), including potential abrupt climate reversals similar to those of the last Termination, has been particularly challenging due to the scarcity of well-dated records worldwide. Here, we present speleothem data from southern Europe covering the interval from 262.7 to 217.9 kyBP, including the transition from marine isotope stage (MIS) 8 to MIS 7e. High-resolution δ13C, δ18O, and Mg/Ca profiles reveal major millennial-scale changes in aridity manifested in changing water availability and vegetation productivity. uranium-thorium dates provide a solid chronology for two millennial-scale events (S8.1 and S8.2) which, compared with the last two terminations, has some common features with Heinrich 1 and Heinrich 2 in Termination I (T-I).

Hydrological change in Southern Europe responding to increasing North Atlantic overturning during Greenland Stadial 1.

Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1) was the last of a long series of severe cooling episodes in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial period. Numerous North Atlantic and European records reveal the intense environmental impact of that stadial, whose origin is attributed to an intense weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in response to freshening of the North Atlantic. Recent high-resolution studies of European lakes revealed a mid-GS-1 transition in the climatic regimes. The geographical extension of such atmospheric changes and their potential coupling with ocean dynamics still remains unclear. Here we use a subdecadally resolved stalagmite record from the Northern Iberian Peninsula to further investigate the timing and forcing of this transition. A solid interpretation of the environmental changes detected in this new, accurately dated, stalagmite record is based on a parallel cave monitoring exercise. This record reveals a gradual transition from dry to wet conditions starting at 12,500 y before 2000 A.D. in parallel to a progressive warming of the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The observed atmospheric changes are proposed to be led by a progressive resumption of the North Atlantic convection and highlight the complex regional signature of GS-1, very distinctive from previous stadial events.