ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: A major challenge to malaria elimination is identifying and targeting populations that are harbouring residual infections and contributing to persistent transmission. In many near-elimination settings in Southeast Asia, it is known that forest-goers are at higher risk for malaria infection, but detailed information on their behaviours and exposures is not available. METHODS: In Aceh Province, Indonesia, a near-elimination setting where a growing proportion of malaria is due to Plasmodium knowlesi, a case-control study was conducted to identify risk factors for symptomatic malaria, characteristics of forest-goers, and key intervention points. From April 2017 to September 2018, cases and controls were recruited and enrolled in a 1:3 ratio. Cases had confirmed malaria infection by rapid diagnostic test or microscopy detected at a health facility (HF). Gender-matched controls were recruited from passive case detection among individuals with suspected malaria who tested negative at a health facility (HF controls), and community-matched controls were recruited among those testing negative during active case detection. Multivariable logistic regression (unconditional for HF controls and conditional for community controls) was used to identify risk factors for symptomatic malaria infection. RESULTS: There were 45 cases, of which 27 were P. knowlesi, 17 were Plasmodium vivax, and one was not determined. For controls, 509 and 599 participants were recruited from health facilities and the community, respectively. Forest exposures were associated with high odds of malaria; in particular, working and sleeping in the forest (HF controls: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 21.66, 95% CI 5.09-92.26; community controls: aOR 16.78, 95% CI 2.19-128.7) and having a second residence in the forest (aOR 6.29, 95% CI 2.29-17.31 and 13.53, 95% CI 2.10-87.12). Male forest-goers were a diverse population employed in a variety of occupations including logging, farming, and mining, sleeping in settings, such as huts, tents, and barracks, and working in a wide range of group sizes. Reported use of protective measures, such as nets, hammock nets, mosquito coils, and repellents was low among forest-goers and interventions at forest residences were absent. CONCLUSIONS: Second residences in the forest and gaps in use of protective measures point to key malaria interventions to improve coverage in forest-going populations at risk for P. knowlesi and P. vivax in Aceh, Indonesia. Intensified strategies tailored to specific sub-populations will be essential to achieve elimination.
Subject(s)
Malaria, Vivax , Malaria , Male , Humans , Indonesia/epidemiology , Case-Control Studies , Malaria/prevention & control , Malaria, Vivax/epidemiology , Malaria, Vivax/prevention & control , ForestsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Ensuring health equity, especially for vulnerable populations in less developed settings with poor health system is essential for the current and future global health threats. This study examined geographical variations of COVID-19 mortality and its association with population health characteristics, health care capacity in responding pandemic, and socio-economic characteristics across 514 districts in Indonesia. METHODS: This nationwide ecological study included aggregated data of COVID-19 cases and deaths from all 514 districts in Indonesia, recorded in the National COVID-19 Task Force database, during the first two years of the epidemic, from 1 March 2020 to 27 February 2022. The dependent variable was district-level COVID-19 mortality rate per 100,000 populations. The independent variables include district-level COVID-19 incidence rate, population health, health care capacity, and socio-demographics data from government official sources. We used multivariable ordinal logistic regression to examine factors associated with higher mortality rate. RESULTS: Of total 5,539,333 reported COVID-19 cases, 148,034 (2.7%) died, and 5,391,299 (97.4%) were recovered. The district-level mortality rate ranged from 0 to 284 deaths per 100,000 populations. The top five districts with the highest mortality rate were Balikpapan (284 deaths per 100,000 populations), Semarang (263), Madiun (254), Magelang (250), and Yogyakarta (247). A higher COVID-19 incidence (coefficient 1.64, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.75), a higher proportion of ≥ 60 years old population (coefficient 0.26, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.46), a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus (coefficient 0.60, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.84), a lower prevalence of obesity (coefficient -0.32, 95% CI -0.56 to -0.08), a lower number of nurses per population (coefficient -0.27, 95% CI -0.50 to -0.04), a higher number of midwives per population (coefficient 0.32, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.50), and a higher expenditure (coefficient 0.34, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.57) was associated with a higher COVID-19 mortality rate. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 mortality rate in Indonesia was highly heterogeneous and associated with higher COVID-19 incidence, different prevalence of pre-existing comorbidity, healthcare capacity in responding the pandemic, and socio-economic characteristics. This study revealed the need of controlling both COVID-19 and those known comorbidities, health capacity strengthening, and better resource allocation to ensure optimal health outcomes for vulnerable population.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Diabetes Mellitus , Humans , Middle Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , Indonesia/epidemiology , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Comorbidity , PandemicsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. METHODS: We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. RESULTS: C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. CONCLUSIONS: Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , Humans , Immunization Programs/methods , Indonesia , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Syndrome , Vaccination/methods , Vaccination/statistics & numerical dataABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Poor access to health care providers was among the contributing factors to less prompt and ineffective malaria treatment. This limitation could cause severe diseases in remote areas. This study examined the sub-national disparities and predictors in accessing anti-malarial drug treatment among adults in Eastern Indonesia. METHODS: The study analyzed a subset of the 2018 National Basic Health Survey conducted in all 34 provinces in Indonesia. We extracted socio-demographic data of 4655 adult respondents diagnosed with malaria in the past 12 months in five provinces in Eastern Indonesia. The association between socio-demographic factors and the access to anti-malarial drug treatment was assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: Over 20% of respondents diagnosed with malaria within last 12 months admitted that they did not receive anti-malarial drug treatment (range 12-29.9%). The proportion of untreated cases was 12.0% in East Nusa Tenggara, 29.9% in Maluku, 23.1% in North Maluku, 12.7% in West Papua, and 15.6% in Papua. The likelihood of receiving anti-malarial drug treatment was statistically lower in Maluku (adjusted OR = 0.258; 95% CI 0.161-0.143) and North Maluku (adjusted OR = 0.473; 95% CI 0.266-0.840) than those in Eastern Nusa Tenggara (reference). Urban respondents were less likely to receive malaria treatment than rural (adjusted OR = 0.545; 95% CI 0.431-0.689). CONCLUSIONS: This study found that there were sub-national disparities in accessing anti-malarial drug treatment in Eastern Indonesia, with a high proportion of untreated malaria cases across the areas. Findings from this study could be used as baseline information to improve access to anti-malarial drug treatment and better target malaria intervention in Eastern Indonesia.
Subject(s)
Antimalarials , Malaria , Pharmaceutical Preparations , Adult , Antimalarials/therapeutic use , Humans , Indonesia/epidemiology , Malaria/drug therapy , Malaria/epidemiology , Rural PopulationABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Following a dramatic decline of malaria cases in Aceh province, geographically-based reactive case detection (RACD) was recently evaluated as a tool to improve surveillance with the goal of malaria elimination. While RACD detected few cases in households surrounding index cases, engaging in forest work was identified as a risk factor for malaria and infections from Plasmodium knowlesi-a non-human primate malaria parasite-were more common than expected. This qualitative formative assessment was conducted to improve understanding of malaria risk from forest work and identify strategies for targeted surveillance among forest workers, including adapting reactive case detection. METHODS: Between June and August, 2016, five focus groups and 18 in-depth interviews with forest workers and key informants were conducted in each of four subdistricts in Aceh Besar and Aceh Jaya districts. Themes included: types of forest activities, mobility of workers, interactions with non-human primates, malaria prevention and treatment-seeking behaviours, and willingness to participate in malaria surveys at forest work sites and using peer-referral. RESULTS: Reported forest activities included mining, logging, and agriculture in the deep forest and along the forest fringe. Forest workers, particularly miners and loggers, described often spending weeks to months at work sites in makeshift housing, rarely utilizing mosquito prevention and, upon fever, self-medicating and seeking care from traditional healers or pharmacies rather than health facilities. Non-human primates are frequently observed near work sites, and most forest work locations are within a day's journey of health clinics. Employers and workers expressed interest in undertaking malaria testing and in participating in survey recruitment by peer-referral and at work sites. CONCLUSIONS: Diverse groups of forest workers in Aceh are potentially exposed to malaria through forest work. Passive surveillance and household-based screening may under-estimate malaria burden due to extended stays in the forest and health-seeking behaviours. Adapting active surveillance to specifically target forest workers through work-site screening and/or peer-referral appears promising for addressing currently undetected infections.
Subject(s)
Forestry , Malaria/epidemiology , Occupational Diseases/epidemiology , Patient Acceptance of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , Plasmodium knowlesi/isolation & purification , Adult , Female , Humans , Incidence , Indonesia/epidemiology , Malaria/parasitology , Malaria/psychology , Male , Middle Aged , Occupational Diseases/parasitology , Occupational Diseases/psychology , Plasmodium/isolation & purification , Risk Factors , Young AdultABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes reduce dengue virus transmission, and city-wide releases in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia, are showing promising entomological results. Accurate estimates of the burden of dengue, its spatial distribution and the potential impact of Wolbachia are critical in guiding funder and government decisions on its future wider use. METHODS: Here, we combine multiple modelling methods for burden estimation to predict national case burden disaggregated by severity and map the distribution of burden across the country using three separate data sources. An ensemble of transmission models then predicts the estimated reduction in dengue transmission following a nationwide roll-out of wMel Wolbachia. RESULTS: We estimate that 7.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.8-17.7 million) symptomatic dengue cases occurred in Indonesia in 2015 and were associated with 332,865 (UI 94,175-754,203) lost disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The majority of dengue's burden was due to non-severe cases that did not seek treatment or were challenging to diagnose in outpatient settings leading to substantial underreporting. Estimated burden was highly concentrated in a small number of large cities with 90% of dengue cases occurring in 15.3% of land area. Implementing a nationwide Wolbachia population replacement programme was estimated to avert 86.2% (UI 36.2-99.9%) of cases over a long-term average. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest interventions targeted to the highest burden cities can have a disproportionate impact on dengue burden. Area-wide interventions, such as Wolbachia, that are deployed based on the area covered could protect people more efficiently than individual-based interventions, such as vaccines, in such dense environments.
Subject(s)
Aedes/microbiology , Dengue/prevention & control , Models, Theoretical , Pest Control, Biological/methods , Wolbachia , Animals , Cost of Illness , Dengue/epidemiology , Dengue/transmission , Dengue Virus , Humans , Indonesia/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Background: Mass screening and treatment (MST) aims to reduce malaria risk in communities by identifying and treating infected persons without regard to illness. Methods: A cluster-randomized trial evaluated malaria incidence with and without MST. Clusters were randomized to 3, 2, or no MST interventions: MST3, 6 clusters (156 households/670 individuals); MST2, 5 clusters (89 households/423 individuals); and MST0, 5 clusters (174 households/777 individuals). All clusters completed the study with 14 residents withdrawing. In a cohort of 324 schoolchildren (MST3, n = 124; MST2, n = 57; MST0, n = 143) negative by microscopy at enrollment, we evaluated the incidence density of malaria during 3 months of MST and 3 months following. The MST intervention involved community-wide expert malaria microscopic screening and standard therapy with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and primaquine for glucose-6 phosphate dehydrogenase-normal subjects. All blood examinations included polymerase chain reaction assays, which did not guide on-site treatment. Results: The risk ratios for incidence density of microscopically patent malaria in MST3 or MST2 relative to that in MST0 clusters were 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], .53-1.91) and 1.22 (95% CI, .42-3.55), respectively. Similar results were obtained with molecular analysis and species-specific (P. falciparum and P. vivax) infections. Microscopically subpatent, untreated infections accounted for 72% of those infected. Conclusions: Two or 3 rounds of MST within 3 months did not impact the force of anopheline mosquito-borne infection in these communities. The high rate of untreated microscopically subpatent infections likely explains the observed poor impact. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT01878357.
Subject(s)
Antimalarials/therapeutic use , Malaria/drug therapy , Malaria/transmission , Mass Screening , Adult , Cluster Analysis , Drug Therapy, Combination , Female , Humans , Incidence , Indonesia , Malaria/diagnosis , Male , Plasmodium falciparum/isolation & purification , Plasmodium vivax/genetics , Plasmodium vivax/isolation & purification , Treatment OutcomeABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Though essential to the development and evaluation of national malaria control programmes, precise enumeration of the clinical illness burden of malaria in endemic countries remains challenging where local surveillance systems are incomplete. Strategies to infer annual incidence rates from parasite prevalence survey compilations have proven effective in the specific case of Plasmodium falciparum, but have yet to be developed for Plasmodium vivax. Moreover, defining the relationship between P. vivax prevalence and clinical incidence may also allow levels of endemicity to be inferred for areas where the information balance is reversed, that is, incident case numbers are more widely gathered than parasite surveys; both applications ultimately facilitating cartographic estimates of P. vivax transmission intensity and its ensuring disease burden. METHODS: A search for active case detection surveys was conducted and the recorded incidence values were matched to local, contemporary parasite rate measures and classified to geographic zones of differing relapse phenotypes. A hierarchical Bayesian model was fitted to these data to quantify the relationship between prevalence and incidence while accounting for variation among relapse zones. RESULTS: The model, fitted with 176 concurrently measured P. vivax incidence and prevalence records, was a linear regression of the logarithm of incidence against the logarithm of age-standardized prevalence. Specific relationships for the six relapse zones where data were available were drawn, as well as a pooled overall relationship. The slope of the curves varied among relapse zones; zones with short predicted time to relapse had steeper slopes than those observed to contain long-latency relapse phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: The fitted relationships, along with appropriate uncertainty metrics, allow for estimates of clinical incidence of known confidence to be made from wherever P. vivax prevalence data are available. This is a prerequisite for cartographic-based inferences about the global burden of morbidity due to P. vivax, which will be used to inform control efforts.
Subject(s)
Endemic Diseases , Malaria, Vivax/epidemiology , Models, Theoretical , Parasitemia/epidemiology , Plasmodium vivax/physiology , Bayes Theorem , Humans , Incidence , Malaria, Vivax/parasitology , Parasitemia/parasitology , Prevalence , RecurrenceABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The Health Office of Aceh aims to eliminate malaria from Aceh Province, Indonesia by 2015. Malaria was formerly common in Aceh (population 4.5 million), but has declined dramatically in recent years consequent to post-tsunami control efforts. Successful elimination will depend upon rapid and accurate diagnosis and case follow-up at community level. A prerequisite to this is widespread coverage of high quality malaria diagnosis. This study describes the results of a comprehensive assessment of the malaria diagnostic capacity in Aceh as the province moves towards malaria elimination. METHODS: The study was conducted in 23 districts in Aceh from October 2010 to July 2011. Six types of questionnaires were used to collect data on competency of microscopists and laboratory capacity. Standardized slides were used to evaluate the proficiency of all microscopists. In addition, site visits to 17 primary health centres (PHC) assessed diagnostic practice and logistics capacity. RESULTS: Five hundred and seventy four malaria microscopists have been officially registered and assigned to duty in the 23 districts in Aceh Province. They work in 345 laboratories, predominantly in PHCs (69 %) and hospitals (25 %). Three laboratories were evaluated as adequate for all 30 elements, while 29 laboratories were adequate for less than five of 30 elements. Standardized proficiency tests showed that 413 microscopists were at basic (in training) level, with 10 advanced and 9 reference level. No microscopist achieved expert level. Neither the province nor any of Aceh's districts has a standardized inventory and logistics database for malaria diagnostics, nor did any of the surveyed laboratories operate a quality assurance programme for either microscopy or rapid diagnostic tests. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the importance of careful assessment of diagnostic capacity when embarking upon a large-scale malaria elimination programme. Aceh's laboratories have minimal infrastructure with nearly all microscopists still in training. On the positive side, a large workforce of microscopists has been assigned to laboratories with the needed equipment. Aceh will need to embark on a large-scale comprehensive quality assurance scheme if it is to achieve malaria elimination.
Subject(s)
Laboratory Personnel , Malaria/diagnosis , Microscopy/standards , Adult , Aged , Female , Humans , Indonesia , Laboratory Personnel/statistics & numerical data , Malaria/prevention & control , Male , Microscopy/statistics & numerical data , Middle Aged , Surveys and Questionnaires , Young AdultABSTRACT
Malaria eradication efforts prioritize safe and efficient vaccination strategies, although none with high-level efficacy against malaria infection are yet available. Among several vaccine candidates, Sanaria® PfSPZ Vaccine and Sanaria PfSPZ-CVac are, respectively, live radiation- and chemo-attenuated sporozoite vaccines designed to prevent infection with Plasmodium falciparum, the leading cause of malaria-related morbidity and mortality. We are conducting a randomized normal saline placebo-controlled trial called IDSPZV1 that will analyze the safety, tolerability, immunogenicity, and efficacy of PfSPZ Vaccine and PfSPZ-CVac administered pre-deployment to malaria-naive Indonesian soldiers assigned to temporary duties in a high malaria transmission area. We describe the manifold challenges of enrolling and immunizing 345 soldier participants at their home base in western Indonesia before their nearly 6,000-km voyage to eastern Indonesia, where they are being monitored for incident P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria cases during 9 months of exposure. The unique regulatory, ethical, and operational complexities of this trial demonstrate the importance of thorough planning, frequent communication, and close follow-up with stakeholders. Effective engagement with the military community and the ability to adapt to unanticipated events have proven key to the success of this trial.
Subject(s)
Malaria Vaccines , Malaria, Falciparum , Malaria, Vivax , Military Personnel , Plasmodium falciparum , Sporozoites , Vaccines, Attenuated , Humans , Malaria Vaccines/immunology , Malaria Vaccines/therapeutic use , Malaria Vaccines/administration & dosage , Indonesia/epidemiology , Malaria, Falciparum/prevention & control , Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology , Sporozoites/immunology , Vaccines, Attenuated/immunology , Vaccines, Attenuated/therapeutic use , Plasmodium falciparum/immunology , Malaria, Vivax/prevention & control , Malaria, Vivax/epidemiology , Male , Adult , Young Adult , Plasmodium vivax/immunology , FemaleABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis control in high-burden countries has not been adequately assessed. We aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the national tuberculosis programme in Indonesia, in association with indicators of human development and health-system capacity across all 514 districts in 34 provinces. METHODS: We did a nationwide longitudinal analysis to compare tuberculosis case notification, treatment coverage, and mortality rates in Indonesia before (2016-19) and during (2020-21) the COVID-19 pandemic. The following outcomes were assessed: the district-level quarterly reported tuberculosis case notification rate (number of all reported tuberculosis cases per 100â000 population), treatment coverage (proportion of tuberculosis patients who started treatment), and all-cause mortality rate in patients with tuberculosis (number of reported deaths per 100â000 population). District-level data on COVID-19 incidence and deaths, health-system capacity, and human development and sociodemographics were also analysed. Multilevel linear spline regression was done to assess quarterly time trends for the three outcomes. FINDINGS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the tuberculosis case notification rate declined by 26% (case notification rate ratio 0·74, 95% CI 0·72-0·77) and treatment coverage declined by 11% (treatment coverage ratio 0·89, 95% CI 0·88-0·90), but there was no significant increase in all-cause mortality (all-cause mortality rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·91-1·04) compared with the pre-pandemic period. In the second year of the pandemic, we observed a partial recovery of the case notification rate from Q1 to Q4 of 2021, a persistent decrease in treatment coverage, and a decrease in the all-cause mortality rate from Q2 of 2020 to Q4 of 2021. The multivariable analysis showed that the reduction in the tuberculosis case notification rate was associated with a higher COVID-19 incidence rate (adjusted odds ratio 3·1, 95% CI 1·1-8·6, for the highest compared with the lowest group) and fewer GeneXpert machines for tuberculosis diagnosis (3·1, 1·0-9·4, for the lowest compared with the highest group) per 100â000 population. The reduction in tuberculosis treatment coverage was associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (adjusted odds ratio 11·7, 95% CI 1·5-93·4, for the highest compared with the lowest group), fewer primary health centres (10·6, 4·1-28·0, for the lowest compared with the middle-high group), and a very low number of doctors (0·3, 0·1-0·9, for the low-middle compared with the lowest group) per 100â000 population. No factors were shown to be significantly associated with all-cause mortality. INTERPRETATION: The COVID-19 pandemic adversely and unevenly affected the national tuberculosis programme across Indonesia, with the greatest impacts observed in districts with the lowest health-system capacity. These disruptions could lead to an escalation in tuberculosis transmission in the coming years, warranting the need for intensified efforts to control tuberculosis and strengthen local health systems. FUNDING: Wellcome Africa Asia Programme Vietnam. TRANSLATION: For the Bahasa translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Indonesia/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Asia , AfricaABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Data on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) clinical characteristics and severity from resource-limited settings are limited. This study examined clinical characteristics and factors associated with COVID-19 mortality and hospitalisation in rural settings of Indonesia, from 1 January to 31 July, 2021. METHODS: This retrospective cohort included individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 based on polymerase chain reaction or rapid antigen diagnostic test, from five rural provinces in Indonesia. We extracted demographic and clinical data, including hospitalisation and mortality from a new piloted COVID-19 information system named Sistem Informasi Surveilans Epidemiologi (SISUGI). We used mixed-effect logistic regression to examine factors associated with COVID-19-related mortality and hospitalisation. RESULTS: Of 6,583 confirmed cases, 205 (3.1%) died and 1,727 (26.2%) were hospitalised. The median age was 37 years (Interquartile range 26-51), with 825 (12.6%) under 20 years, and 3,371 (51.2%) females. Most cases were symptomatic (4,533; 68.9%); 319 (4.9%) had a clinical diagnosis of pneumonia and 945 (14.3%) presented with at least one pre-existing comorbidity. Age-specific mortality rates were 0.9% (2/215) for 0-4 years; 0% (0/112) for 5-9 years; 0% (1/498) for 10-19 years; 0.8% (11/1,385) for 20-29 years; 0.9% (12/1,382) for 30-39 years; 2.1% (23/1,095) for 40-49 years; 5.4% (57/1,064) for 50-59 years; 10.8% (62/576) for 60-69 years; 15.9% (37/232) for ≥70 years. Older age, pre-existing diabetes, chronic kidney disease, liver diseases, malignancy, and pneumonia were associated with higher risk of mortality and hospitalisation. Pre-existing hypertension, cardiac diseases, COPD, and immunocompromised condition were associated with risk of hospitalisation but not with mortality. There was no association between province-level density of healthcare workers with mortality and hospitalisation. CONCLUSION: The risk of COVID-19-related mortality and hospitalisation was associated with higher age, pre-existing chronic comorbidities, and clinical pneumonia. The findings highlight the need for prioritising enhanced context-specific public health action to reduce mortality and hospitalisation risk among older and comorbid rural populations.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Female , Humans , Adult , Infant, Newborn , Infant , Child, Preschool , Male , COVID-19/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Indonesia/epidemiology , Rural Population , Hospitalization , Comorbidity , Hospitals , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Many recent studies have examined the impact of urbanization on Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity and found a general trend of reduced transmission in urban areas. However, none has examined the effect of urbanization on Plasmodium vivax malaria, which is the most widely distributed malaria species and can also cause severe clinical syndromes in humans. In this study, a set of 10,003 community-based P. vivax parasite rate (PvPR) surveys are used to explore the relationships between PvPR in urban and rural settings. METHODS: The PvPR surveys were overlaid onto a map of global urban extents to derive an urban/rural assignment. The differences in PvPR values between urban and rural areas were then examined. Groups of PvPR surveys inside individual city extents (urban) and surrounding areas (rural) were identified to examine the local variations in PvPR values. Finally, the relationships of PvPR between urban and rural areas within the ranges of 41 dominant Anopheles vectors were examined. RESULTS: Significantly higher PvPR values in rural areas were found globally. The relationship was consistent at continental scales when focusing on Africa and Asia only, but in the Americas, significantly lower values of PvPR in rural areas were found, though the numbers of surveys were small. Moreover, except for the countries in the Americas, the same trends were found at national scales in African and Asian countries, with significantly lower values of PvPR in urban areas. However, the patterns at city scales among 20 specific cities where sufficient data were available were less clear, with seven cities having significantly lower PvPR values in urban areas and two cities showing significantly lower PvPR in rural areas. The urban-rural PvPR differences within the ranges of the dominant Anopheles vectors were generally, in agreement with the regional patterns found. CONCLUSIONS: Except for the Americas, the patterns of significantly lower P. vivax transmission in urban areas have been found globally, regionally, nationally and by dominant vector species here, following trends observed previously for P. falciparum. To further understand these patterns, more epidemiological, entomological and parasitological analyses of the disease at smaller spatial scales are needed.
Subject(s)
Malaria, Vivax/epidemiology , Malaria, Vivax/transmission , Urbanization , Global Health , Humans , Rural Population , Topography, Medical , Urban PopulationABSTRACT
Background: As control efforts progress towards elimination, malaria is likely to become more spatially concentrated in few local areas. The purpose of this study was to quantify and characterise spatial heterogeneity in malaria transmission-intensity across highly endemic Indonesian Papua. Methods: We analysed individual-level malaria surveillance data for nearly half a million cases (2019-2020) reported in the Papua and West Papua provinces and adapted the Gini index approach to quantify spatial heterogeneity at the district and health-unit levels. In this context, high Gini index implies disproportionately distributed malaria cases across the region. We showed malaria incidence trends and the spatial and temporal distribution of sociodemographic characteristics and aetiological parasites among cases. Findings: While Papua province accounted for the majority of malaria cases reported in the region and had seen a rise in transmission since 2015, West Papua province had maintained a comparatively low incidence. We observed that Gini index estimates were high, particularly when the lower spatial scale of health units was evaluated. The Gini index appears to be inversely associated to annual parasite-incidence, as well as the proportions of vivax malaria, male sex, and adults. Interpretation: This study suggests that areas with varying levels of transmission-intensities exhibited distinct characteristics. Malaria was distributed in a markedly disproportionate manner throughout the region, emphasising the need for spatially targeted interventions. Periodic quantification and characterisation of risk heterogeneity at various spatial levels using routine malaria surveillance data may aid in tracking progress towards elimination and guiding evidence-informed prioritisation of resource allocation. Funding: The study was funded by the Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Indo-Pacific Centre for Health Security through the Strengthening Preparedness in the Asia-Pacific Region through Knowledge (SPARK) project.
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Worldwide, the 33 recognised megacities comprise approximately 7% of the global population, yet account for 20% COVID-19 deaths. The specific inequities and other factors within megacities that affect vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality remain poorly defined. We assessed individual, community-level and healthcare factors associated with COVID-19-related mortality in a megacity of Jakarta, Indonesia, during two epidemic waves spanning 2 March 2020 to 31 August 2021. METHODS: This retrospective cohort included residents of Jakarta, Indonesia, with PCR-confirmed COVID-19. We extracted demographic, clinical, outcome (recovered or died), vaccine coverage data and disease prevalence from Jakarta Health Office surveillance records, and collected subdistrict level sociodemographics data from various official sources. We used multilevel logistic regression to examine individual, community and subdistrict-level healthcare factors and their associations with COVID-19 mortality. RESULTS: Of 705 503 cases with a definitive outcome by 31 August 2021, 694 706 (98.5%) recovered and 10 797 (1.5%) died. The median age was 36 years (IQR 24-50), 13.2% (93 459) were <18 years and 51.6% were female. The subdistrict level accounted for 1.5% of variance in mortality (p<0.0001). Mortality ranged from 0.9 to 1.8% by subdistrict. Individual-level factors associated with death were older age, male sex, comorbidities and age <5 years during the first wave (adjusted OR (aOR)) 1.56, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.35; reference: age 20-29 years). Community-level factors associated with death were poverty (aOR for the poorer quarter 1.35, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.55; reference: wealthiest quarter) and high population density (aOR for the highest density 1.34, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.58; reference: the lowest). Healthcare factor associated with death was low vaccine coverage (aOR for the lowest coverage 1.25, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.38; reference: the highest). CONCLUSION: In addition to individual risk factors, living in areas with high poverty and density, and low healthcare performance further increase the vulnerability of communities to COVID-19-associated death in urban low-resource settings.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Adult , Child, Preschool , Delivery of Health Care , Female , Humans , Indonesia/epidemiology , Male , Multilevel Analysis , Retrospective Studies , Young AdultABSTRACT
The impact of SARS-CoV-2 infections upon Indonesian health care workers (HCWs) is unknown due to the lack of systematic collection and analysis of mortality data specific to HCWs in this setting. This report details the results of a systematic compilation, abstraction and analysis of HCW fatalities in Indonesia during the first 18 months of COVID-19. HCW who passed away between March 2020 and July 2021 were identified using Pusara Digital, a community-based digital cemetery database dedicated to HCW. We calculated the mortality rates and death risk ratio of HCWs versus the general population. The analysis indicates that at least 1,545 HCWs died during the study period. Death rates among males and females HCWs were nearly equivalent (51% vs. 49%). The majority were physicians and specialists (535, 35%), nurses (428, 28%), and midwives (359, 23%). Most deaths occurred between the ages of 40 to 59 years old, with the median age being 50 years (IQR: 39-59). At least 322 deaths (21%) occurred with pre-existing conditions, including 45 pregnant women. During the first 18 months of COVID-19 in Indonesia, we estimated a minimum HCW mortality rate of 1.707 deaths per 1,000 HCWs. The provincial rates of HCW mortality ranged from 0.136 (West Sulawesi) to 5.32 HCW deaths per 1,000 HCWs (East Java). The HCW mortality rate was significantly higher than that of the general population (RR = 4.92, 95% CI 4.67-5.17). The COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia resulted in the loss of many hundreds of HCWs, the majority of whom were senior healthcare workers. The HCW mortality rate is five times that of the general population. A national systematic surveillance of occupational mortality is urgently needed in this setting.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR) and the basic reproductive number (PfR). METHODS: Annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty. RESULTS: An estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and elimination decisions and can serve as a baseline assessment as the global health community looks ahead to the next series of milestones targeted at 2015.
Subject(s)
Endemic Diseases/statistics & numerical data , Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology , Maps as Topic , Plasmodium falciparum/pathogenicity , Algorithms , Bayes Theorem , Computational Biology , Databases, Factual , Endemic Diseases/prevention & control , Global Health , Humans , Malaria, Falciparum/parasitology , Malaria, Falciparum/prevention & control , Models, Statistical , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Efficient allocation of resources to intervene against malaria requires a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of malaria risk. It is exactly 40 y since the last global map of malaria endemicity was published. This paper describes the generation of a new world map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for the year 2007. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A total of 8,938 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were identified using a variety of exhaustive search strategies. Of these, 7,953 passed strict data fidelity tests for inclusion into a global database of PfPR data, age-standardized to 2-10 y for endemicity mapping. A model-based geostatistical procedure was used to create a continuous surface of malaria endemicity within previously defined stable spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission. These procedures were implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework so that the uncertainty of these predictions could be evaluated robustly. The uncertainty was expressed as the probability of predicting correctly one of three endemicity classes; previously stratified to be an informative guide for malaria control. Population at risk estimates, adjusted for the transmission modifying effects of urbanization in Africa, were then derived with reference to human population surfaces in 2007. Of the 1.38 billion people at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria, 0.69 billion were found in Central and South East Asia (CSE Asia), 0.66 billion in Africa, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia (Africa+), and 0.04 billion in the Americas. All those exposed to stable risk in the Americas were in the lowest endemicity class (PfPR2-10 < or = 5%). The vast majority (88%) of those living under stable risk in CSE Asia were also in this low endemicity class; a small remainder (11%) were in the intermediate endemicity class (PfPR2-10 > 5 to < 40%); and the remaining fraction (1%) in high endemicity (PfPR2-10 > or = 40%) areas. High endemicity was widespread in the Africa+ region, where 0.35 billion people are at this level of risk. Most of the rest live at intermediate risk (0.20 billion), with a smaller number (0.11 billion) at low stable risk. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of P. falciparum malaria endemicity are common in Africa. Uniformly low endemic levels are found in the Americas. Low endemicity is also widespread in CSE Asia, but pockets of intermediate and very rarely high transmission remain. There are therefore significant opportunities for malaria control in Africa and for malaria elimination elsewhere. This 2007 global P. falciparum malaria endemicity map is the first of a series with which it will be possible to monitor and evaluate the progress of this intervention process.
Subject(s)
Endemic Diseases/statistics & numerical data , Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology , Maps as Topic , Africa/epidemiology , Americas/epidemiology , Animals , Asia/epidemiology , Climate , Databases, Factual , Global Health , Health Surveys , Humans , Malaria, Falciparum/parasitology , Models, Theoretical , Plasmodium falciparum/isolation & purification , Prevalence , RiskABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Accurate information about the burden of malaria infection at the district or provincial level is required both to plan and assess local malaria control efforts. Although many studies of malaria epidemiology, immunology, and drug resistance have been conducted at many sites in Indonesia, there is little published literature describing malaria prevalence at the district, provincial, or national level. METHODS: Two stage cluster sampling malaria prevalence surveys were conducted in the wet season and dry season across West Sumba, Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia. RESULTS: Eight thousand eight hundred seventy samples were collected from 45 sub-villages in the surveys. The overall prevalence of malaria infection in the West Sumba District was 6.83% (95% CI, 4.40, 9.26) in the wet season and 4.95% (95% CI, 3.01, 6.90) in the dry. In the wet season Plasmodium falciparum accounted for 70% of infections; in the dry season P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax were present in equal proportion. Malaria prevalence varied substantially across the district; prevalences in individual sub-villages ranged from 0-34%. The greatest malaria prevalence was in children and teenagers; the geometric mean parasitaemia in infected individuals decreased with age. Malaria infection was clearly associated with decreased haemoglobin concentration in children under 10 years of age, but it is not clear whether this association is causal. CONCLUSION: Malaria is hypoendemic to mesoendemic in West Sumba, Indonesia. The age distribution of parasitaemia suggests that transmission has been stable enough to induce some clinical immunity. These prevalence data will aid the design of future malaria control efforts and will serve as a baseline against which the results of current and future control efforts can be assessed.
Subject(s)
Malaria/epidemiology , Seasons , Adolescent , Adult , Anemia/epidemiology , Anemia/etiology , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Hemoglobins/metabolism , Humans , Indonesia/epidemiology , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Malaria/complications , Male , Prevalence , Young AdultABSTRACT
A 12-mo ecological study of the spatial-temporal distribution of immature stages of Anopheles species was conducted in Sukabumi District, West Java, Indonesia. The study characterized 1,600 sites from a contiguous coastal and hill zone (0-800-m elevation) of which 64% contained Anopheles larvae. Principal component and multiple logistic regression analyses identified ecological parameters associated with presence of nine [Anopheles aconitus Doenitz, Anopheles annularis Van de Wulp, Anopheles barbirostris Van der Wulp, Anopheles flavirostris (Ludlow), Anopheles insulaeflorum (Swellengrebel and Swellengrebel de Graaf), Anopheles kochi Doenitz, Anopheles maculatus Theobald, Anopheles sundaicus (Rodenwaldt), and Anopheles vagus Doenitz] of 15 Anopheles species collected. Combined data for all nine species showed increased Anopheles presence associated with wet season periods and higher elevation habitats exhibiting reduced tree canopy coverage, higher water temperatures, and shallower water depths. Habitat variables measured included topography (elevation), water conditions (temperature, pH, salinity depth, and velocity), habitat characteristics (substrate and canopy cover), density and type of aquatic vegetation coverage (riparian, floating, and emergent), and distance from nearest human habitation. Significant relationships were found for nine species when using all habitats in the analysis. Habitat characteristics for three species were refined. An. aconitus and An. barbirostris were associated with higher elevation rice, Oryza savita L., paddies with relatively shallow water depths, higher water temperatures, higher acidity and salinity concentrations, and a greater average distance from human habitation. An. vagus presence in rice paddies was associated with lower elevation fields, deeper and cooler water, less acidic and saline conditions, and habitats closer to human dwellings. Overall, the distribution of Anopheles species in Sukabumi was found to be nonrandom and predictable on the basis of habitat characteristics.