The long-term expansion and recession of human populations.

Over the last 12,000 y, human populations have expanded and transformed critical earth systems. Yet, a key unresolved question in the environmental and social sciences remains: Why did human populations grow and, sometimes, decline in the first place? Our research builds on 20 y of archaeological research studying the deep time dynamics of human populations to propose an explanation for the long-term growth and stability of human populations. Innovations in the productive capacity of populations fuels exponential-like growth over thousands of years; however, innovations saturate over time and, often, may leave populations vulnerable to large recessions in their well-being and population density. Empirically, we find a trade-off between changes in land use that increase the production and consumption of carbohydrates, driving repeated waves of population growth over thousands of years, and the susceptibility of populations to large recessions due to a lag in the impact of humans on resources. These results shed light on the long-term drivers of human population growth and decline.

Social and general intelligence improves collective action in a common pool resource system.

On a planet experiencing global environmental change, the governance of natural resources depends on sustained collective action by diverse populations. Engaging in such collective action can only build upon the foundation of human cognition in social-ecological settings. To help understand this foundation, we assess the effect of cognitive abilities on the management of a common pool resource. We present evidence that two functionally distinct cognitive abilities, general and social intelligence, improve the ability of groups to manage a common pool resource. Groups high in both forms of intelligence engage in more effective collective action that is also more consistent, despite social or ecological change. This result provides a foundation for integrating the effects of cognitive abilities with other dimensions of cognitive diversity to explain when groups will and will not sustainably govern natural resources.

Synchronization of energy consumption by human societies throughout the Holocene.

We conduct a global comparison of the consumption of energy by human populations throughout the Holocene and statistically quantify coincident changes in the consumption of energy over space and time-an ecological phenomenon known as synchrony. When populations synchronize, adverse changes in ecosystems and social systems may cascade from society to society. Thus, to develop policies that favor the sustained use of resources, we must understand the processes that cause the synchrony of human populations. To date, it is not clear whether human societies display long-term synchrony or, if they do, the potential causes. Our analysis begins to fill this knowledge gap by quantifying the long-term synchrony of human societies, and we hypothesize that the synchrony of human populations results from (i) the creation of social ties that couple populations over smaller scales and (ii) much larger scale, globally convergent trajectories of cultural evolution toward more energy-consuming political economies with higher carrying capacities. Our results suggest that the process of globalization is a natural consequence of evolutionary trajectories that increase the carrying capacities of human societies.

Progesterone-only contraception is associated with a shorter progression-free survival in premenopausal women with WHO Grade I meningioma.

The hormonally active nature of intracranial meningioma has prompted research examining the risk of tumorigenesis in patients using hormonal contraception. Studies exploring estrogen-only and estrogen/progesterone combination contraceptives have failed to demonstrate a consistent increased risk of meningioma. By contrast, the few trials examining progesterone-only contraceptives have shown higher odds ratios for risk of meningioma. With progesterone-only contraception on the rise, the risk of tumor recurrence with these specific medications warrants closer study. We sought to determine whether progesterone-only contraception increases recurrence rate and decreases progression-free survival in pre-menopausal women with surgically resected WHO Grade I meningioma. Comparative analysis of 67 pre-menopausal women taking hormone-based contraceptives (progesterone-only medication, n = 21; estrogen-only or estrogen/progesterone combination medication, n = 46) who underwent surgical resection of WHO Grade I intracranial meningioma was performed. Differences in demographics, degree of resection, adjuvant therapy and time to recurrence were compared between the two groups. Compared to patients taking combination or estrogen-only contraception, those taking progesterone-only contraception demonstrated a greater recurrence rate (33.3 vs. 19.6%) with a reduced time to recurrence (18 vs. 32 months, p = 0.038) despite a significantly shorter follow-up (p = 0.014). There were no significant demographic or treatment related differences. The results from this study suggest that exogenous progesterone-only medications may represent a specific contraceptive subgroup that should be avoided in patients with meningioma.

Multiplatform profiling of meningioma provides molecular insight and prioritization of drug targets for rational clinical trial design.

INTRODUCTION: Surgery and radiation therapy are the standard treatment options for meningiomas, but these treatments are not always feasible. Expression profiling was performed to determine the presence of therapeutic actionable biomarkers for prioritization and selection of agents. METHODS: Meningiomas (n = 115) were profiled using a variety of strategies including next-generation sequencing (592-gene panel: n = 14; 47-gene panel: n = 94), immunohistochemistry (n = 8-110), and fluorescent and chromogenic in situ hybridization (n = 5-70) to determine mutational and expression status. RESULTS: The median age of patients in the cohort was 60 years, with a range spanning 6-90 years; 52% were female. The most frequently expressed protein markers were EGFR (93%; n = 44), followed by PTEN (77%; n = 110), BCRP (75%; n = 8), MRP1 (65%, n = 23), PGP (62%; n = 84), and MGMT (55%; n = 97). The most frequent mutation among all meningioma grades occurred in the NF2 gene at 85% (11/13). Recurring mutations in SMO and AKT1 were also occasionally detected. PD-L1 was expressed in 25% of grade III cases (2/8) but not in grade I or II tumors. PD-1 + T cells were present in 46% (24/52) of meningiomas. TOP2A and thymidylate synthase expression increased with grade (I = 5%, II = 22%, III = 62% and I = 5%, II = 23%, III = 47%, respectively), whereas progesterone receptor expression decreased with grade (I = 79%, II = 41%, III = 29%). CONCLUSION: If predicated on tumor expression, our data suggest that therapeutics directed toward NF2 and TOP2A could be considered for most meningioma patients.

Toward a theory of punctuated subsistence change.

Discourse on the origins and spread of domesticated species focuses on universal causal explanations or unique regional or temporal trajectories. Despite new data as to the context and physical processes of early domestication, researchers still do not understand the types of system-level reorganizations required to transition from foraging to farming. Drawing upon dynamical systems theory and the concepts of attractors and repellors, we develop an understanding of subsistence transition and a description of variation in, and emergence of, human subsistence systems. The overlooked role of attractors and repellors in these systems helps explain why the origins of agriculture occurred quickly in some times and places, but slowly in others. A deeper understanding of the interactions of a limited set of variables that control the size of attractors (a proxy for resilience), such as population size, number of dry months, net primary productivity, and settlement fixity, provides new insights into the origin and spread of domesticated species in human economies.

Impact of early access to multidisciplinary care on treatment outcomes in patients with skull base chordoma.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if early access to multidisciplinary surgical care affects outcomes in patients with skull base chordoma. METHOD: A retrospective chart review of prospectively collected data was performed on 51 patients treated from 1993 to 2014. The cohort was divided into those presenting (1) for initial management (ID, n = 21) or (2) with persistent/progressive disease after prior biopsy/surgery (PD, n = 30) outside of a multidisciplinary setting. The impact of initial surgical management in a multidisciplinary center on progression-free survival (PFS) was assessed with Kaplan-Meier and log-rank analyses. RESULTS: Mean follow-up, median PFS, median overall survival (OS), and 10-year OS for the entire cohort was 70 months, 47 months, 159 months, and 19%, respectively. Initial management in a multidisciplinary center resulted in a significant improvement in PFS versus initial surgery with or without radiotherapy (XRT) outside of this setting (64 vs 25 months, p = 0.035). Initial surgical resection outside of a multidisciplinary setting increased the risk of recurrence/progression on univariate (HR, 2.276; p = 0.022) and multivariate analysis (HR, 2.831; p = 0.006), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this study emphasize the impact that coordinated multidisciplinary surgical care has on patient outcomes for chordomas of the clivus. Biopsy followed by attempted radical resection at a dedicated center does not affect PFS and, therefore, represents a reasonable first step in management for patients presenting outside of multidisciplinary setting.

Moyamoya in a Patient with Smith-Magenis Syndrome.

Occurrence of moyamoya syndrome in a patient with Smith-Magenis syndrome (SMS) has previously been reported once in a 10-year-old Asian female. We report a second case of moyamoya in a patient with SMS, in a now 25-year-old Asian female diagnosed with both conditions as a child. In addition to describing her medical and surgical history, we provide a detailed report of her omental transposition, in which the omental circulation was anastomosed to the superior thyroid artery and external jugular vein. To our knowledge, this is the first report of omental transposition for moyamoya in which omental vessels are anastomosed to vessels in the neck, as well as the second report of moyamoya in a patient with SMS.

Transposition of the paraclival carotid artery: a novel concept of self-retaining vascular retraction during endoscopic endonasal skull base surgery technical report.

BACKGROUND: Fixed retraction of the internal carotid artery (ICA) has previously been described for use during transcranial microscopic surgery. We report the novel use of a self-retaining microvascular retractor for static repositioning and protection of the ICA during expanded endonasal endoscopic approaches to the paramedian skull base. METHODS: The transmaxillary, transpterygoid approach was performed in five cadaver heads (ten sides). The self-retaining microvascular retractor was used to laterally reposition the pterygopalatine fossa contents during exposure of the pterygoid base/plates and the paraclival ICA to expose the petrous apex. Maximum ICA retraction distance was measured in the x-axis for all ten sides. RESULTS: The average horizontal distance of ICA retraction measured at the mid-paraclival segment for all ten sides was 4.75 mm. In all cases, the carotid artery was repositioned without injury to the vessel or disruption of the surrounding neurovascular structures. CONCLUSIONS: Static repositioning of the ICA and other delicate neurovascular structures was effectively performed during endonasal, endoscopic cadaveric surgery of the skull base and has potential merits in live patients.

Unilateral endonasal transcribriform approach with septal transposition for olfactory groove meningioma: can olfaction be preserved?

BACKGROUND: Loss of olfaction has been considered inevitable in endoscopic endonasal resection of olfactory groove meningiomas. Olfaction preservation may be feasible through an endonasal unilateral transcribriform approach, with the option for expansion using septal transposition and contralateral preservation of the olfactory apparatus. METHODS: An expanded unilateral endonasal transcribriform approach with septal transposition was performed in five cadaver heads. The approach was applied in a surgical case of a 24 × 26-mm olfactory groove meningioma originating from the right cribriform plate with partially intact olfaction. RESULTS: The surgical approach offered adequate exposure to the anterior skull base bilaterally. The nasal/septal mucosa was preserved on the contralateral side. Gross total resection of the meningioma was achieved with the successful preservation of the contralateral olfactory apparatus and preoperative olfaction. Six months later, the left nasal cavity showed no disruption of the mucosal lining and the right side was at the appropriate stage of healing for a harvested nasoseptal flap. One year later, the preoperative olfactory function was intact and favorably viewed by the patient. Objective testing of olfaction showed microsomia. CONCLUSIONS: Olfaction preservation may be feasible in the endoscopic endonasal resection of a unilateral olfactory groove meningioma through a unilateral transcribriform approach with septal transposition and preservation of the contralateral olfactory apparatus.

Packing to tamponade severe intracranial hemorrhage in pediatric patients.

The medical records of all children in whom packing was used to control severe intracranial hemorrhage were reviewed. Eight children, with ages ranging from newborn to 4 years, met the inclusion criteria and all survived. Five were victims of severe closed head trauma, 2 had received penetrating cranial injuries, and 1 developed severe bleeding while undergoing surgery for a malignant tumor in the posterior fossa. Blood loss at the time of removal of the packing was minimal in 7 patients and was surgically controllable in the other. Packing is a simple, efficient, and safe maneuver which can very often halt intracranial bleeding that is considered to be otherwise uncontrollable, and can thereby limit the consequences of prolonged or repeated periods of hypotension and possible exsanguination.

Harnessing the benefits of diversity to address socio-environmental governance challenges.

Solving complex problems, from biodiversity conservation to reducing inequality, requires large scale collective action among diverse stakeholders to achieve a common goal. Research relevant to meeting this challenge must model the interaction of stakeholders with diverse cognitive capabilities and the complexity of the problem faced by stakeholders to predict the success of collective action in various contexts. Here, we build a model from first principles of cognitive abilities, diversity, and socio-environmental complexity to identify the sets of conditions under which groups most effectively engage in collective action to solve governance problems. We then fit the model to small groups, U.S. states, and countries. Our model illustrates the fundamental importance of understanding the interaction between cognitive abilities, diversity, and the complexity of socio-environmental challenges faced by stakeholders today. Our results shed light on the ability of groups to solve complex problems and open new avenues of research into the interrelationship between cognition, institutions, and the environments in which they co-evolve.

Circumferential sulcus-guided resection technique for improved outcomes of low-grade gliomas.

OBJECTIVE: Many neurosurgeons resect nonenhancing low-grade gliomas (LGGs) by using an inside-out piecemeal resection (PMR) technique. At the authors' institution they have increasingly used a circumferential, perilesional, sulcus-guided resection (SGR) technique. This technique has not been well described and there are limited data on its effectiveness. The authors describe the SGR technique and assess the extent to which SGR correlates with extent of resection and neurological outcome. METHODS: The authors identified all patients with newly diagnosed LGGs who underwent resection at their institution over a 22-year period. Demographics, presenting symptoms, intraoperative data, method of resection (SGR or PMR), volumetric imaging data, and postoperative outcomes were obtained. Univariate analyses used ANOVA and Fisher's exact test. Multivariate analyses were performed using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Newly diagnosed LGGs were resected in 519 patients, 208 (40%) using an SGR technique and 311 (60%) using a PMR technique. The median extent of resection in the SGR group was 84%, compared with 77% in the PMR group (p = 0.019). In multivariate analysis, SGR was independently associated with a higher rate of complete (100%) resection (27% vs 18%) (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.6; p = 0.03). SGR was also associated with a statistical trend toward lower rates of postoperative neurological complications (11% vs 16%, p = 0.09). A subset analysis of tumors located specifically in eloquent brain demonstrated SGR to be as safe as PMR. CONCLUSIONS: The authors describe the SGR technique used to resect LGGs and show that SGR is independently associated with statistically significantly higher rates of complete resection, without an increase in neurological complications, than with PMR. SGR technique should be considered when resecting LGGs.

p3k14c, a synthetic global database of archaeological radiocarbon dates.

Archaeologists increasingly use large radiocarbon databases to model prehistoric human demography (also termed paleo-demography). Numerous independent projects, funded over the past decade, have assembled such databases from multiple regions of the world. These data provide unprecedented potential for comparative research on human population ecology and the evolution of social-ecological systems across the Earth. However, these databases have been developed using different sample selection criteria, which has resulted in interoperability issues for global-scale, comparative paleo-demographic research and integration with paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental data. We present a synthetic, global-scale archaeological radiocarbon database composed of 180,070 radiocarbon dates that have been cleaned according to a standardized sample selection criteria. This database increases the reusability of archaeological radiocarbon data and streamlines quality control assessments for various types of paleo-demographic research. As part of an assessment of data quality, we conduct two analyses of sampling bias in the global database at multiple scales. This database is ideal for paleo-demographic research focused on dates-as-data, bayesian modeling, or summed probability distribution methodologies.

Dendrochronological dates confirm a Late Prehistoric population decline in the American Southwest derived from radiocarbon dates.

The northern American Southwest provides one of the most well-documented cases of human population growth and decline in the world. The geographic extent of this decline in North America is unknown owing to the lack of high-resolution palaeodemographic data from regions across and beyond the greater Southwest, where archaeological radiocarbon data are often the only available proxy for investigating these palaeodemographic processes. Radiocarbon time series across and beyond the greater Southwest suggest widespread population collapses from AD 1300 to 1600. However, radiocarbon data have potential biases caused by variable radiocarbon sample preservation, sample collection and the nonlinearity of the radiocarbon calibration curve. In order to be confident in the wider trends seen in radiocarbon time series across and beyond the greater Southwest, here we focus on regions that have multiple palaeodemographic proxies and compare those proxies to radiocarbon time series. We develop a new method for time series analysis and comparison between dendrochronological data and radiocarbon data. Results confirm a multiple proxy decline in human populations across the Upland US Southwest, Central Mesa Verde and Northern Rio Grande from AD 1300 to 1600. These results lend confidence to single proxy radiocarbon-based reconstructions of palaeodemography outside the Southwest that suggest post-AD 1300 population declines in many parts of North America. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Viral inhibitors derived from macroalgae, microalgae, and cyanobacteria: A review of antiviral potential throughout pathogenesis.

Viruses are abiotic obligate parasites utilizing complex mechanisms to hijack cellular machinery and reproduce, causing multiple harmful effects in the process. Viruses represent a growing global health concern; at the time of writing, COVID-19 has killed at least two million people around the world and devastated global economies. Lingering concern regarding the virus' prevalence yet hampers return to normalcy. While catastrophic in and of itself, COVID-19 further heralds in a new era of human-disease interaction characterized by the emergence of novel viruses from natural sources with heretofore unseen frequency. Due to deforestation, population growth, and climate change, we are encountering more viruses that can infect larger groups of people with greater ease and increasingly severe outcomes. The devastation of COVID-19 and forecasts of future human/disease interactions call for a creative reconsideration of global response to infectious disease. There is an urgent need for accessible, cost-effective antiviral (AV) drugs that can be mass-produced and widely distributed to large populations. Development of AV drugs should be informed by a thorough understanding of viral structure and function as well as human biology. To maximize efficacy, minimize cost, and reduce development of drug-resistance, these drugs would ideally operate through a varied set of mechanisms at multiple stages throughout the course of infection. Due to their abundance and diversity, natural compounds are ideal for such comprehensive therapeutic interventions. Promising sources of such drugs are found throughout nature; especially remarkable are the algae, a polyphyletic grouping of phototrophs that produce diverse bioactive compounds. While not much literature has been published on the subject, studies have shown that these compounds exert antiviral effects at different stages of viral pathogenesis. In this review, we follow the course of viral infection in the human body and evaluate the AV effects of algae-derived compounds at each stage. Specifically, we examine the AV activities of algae-derived compounds at the entry of viruses into the body, transport through the body via the lymph and blood, infection of target cells, and immune response. We discuss what is known about algae-derived compounds that may interfere with the infection pathways of SARS-CoV-2; and review which algae are promising sources for AV agents or AV precursors that, with further investigation, may yield life-saving drugs due to their diversity of mechanisms and exceptional pharmaceutical potential.

The two types of society: Computationally revealing recurrent social formations and their evolutionary trajectories.

Comparative social science has a long history of attempts to classify societies and cultures in terms of shared characteristics. However, only recently has it become feasible to conduct quantitative analysis of large historical datasets to mathematically approach the study of social complexity and classify shared societal characteristics. Such methods have the potential to identify recurrent social formations in human societies and contribute to social evolutionary theory. However, in order to achieve this potential, repeated studies are needed to assess the robustness of results to changing methods and data sets. Using an improved derivative of the Seshat: Global History Databank, we perform a clustering analysis of 271 past societies from sampling points across the globe to study plausible categorizations inherent in the data. Analysis indicates that the best fit to Seshat data is five subclusters existing as part of two clearly delineated superclusters (that is, two broad "types" of society in terms of social-ecological configuration). Our results add weight to the idea that human societies form recurrent social formations by replicating previous studies with different methods and data. Our results also contribute nuance to previously established measures of social complexity, illustrate diverse trajectories of change, and shed further light on the finite bounds of human social diversity.

Frailty as a Predictor of Neurosurgical Outcomes in Brain Tumor Patients.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative risk assessment is important, but inexact because physiologic reserves are difficult to measure. When assessing quality of life for patients with brain tumors, having a better predictor of postsurgical outcome would be beneficial in counseling these patients. Frailty is thought to estimate physiologic reserves, and it has been found to predict postoperative complications, length of stay, and discharge to a skilled nursing facility or assisted living facility in patients undergoing various types of surgery. Frailty as an adjunct to preoperative assessment of neurosurgical patients has never been evaluated. This study aimed to determine whether frailty predicts neurosurgical complications in patients with brain tumors and enhances current perioperative risk models. METHODS: Frailty was preoperatively assessed in 260 patients undergoing surgery for brain tumor resection using a validated scale that assessed weakness, weight loss, exhaustion, low physical activity, and slowed walking speed. Patients were classified as nonfrail (score of 0-1), moderately frail (score of 2-3), or frail (score of 4-5). Moderately frail and frail patients were combined for analysis. RESULTS: Preoperative frailty was associated with an increased risk for discharge to a location other than home (10.36; 95% confidence interval, 3.6-30.1), postoperative complications (2.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-3.98), and a longer length of stay (1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-2.21). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty independently predicts discharge disposition, postoperative complications, and length of stay in patients undergoing surgery for brain tumor resection. Preoperative assessment of frailty can help neurosurgeons and patients make more informed decisions about pursing surgical treatment.

Perilesional Resection of Glioblastoma Is Independently Associated With Improved Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Resection is a critical component in the initial treatment of glioblastoma (GBM). Often GBMs are resected using an intralesional method. Circumferential perilesional resection of GBMs has been described, but with limited data. OBJECTIVE: To conduct an observational retrospective analysis to test whether perilesional resection produced a greater extent of resection. METHODS: We identified all patients with newly diagnosed GBM who underwent resection at our institution from June 1, 1993 to December 31, 2015. Demographics, presenting symptoms, intraoperative data, method of resection (perilesional or intralesional), volumetric imaging data, and postoperative outcomes were obtained. Complete resection (CR) was defined as 100% resection of all contrast-enhancing disease. Univariate analyses employed analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Fisher's exact test. Multivariate analyses used propensity score-weighted multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Newly diagnosed GBMs were resected in 1204 patients, 436 tumors (36%) perilesionally and 766 (64%) intralesionally. Radiographic CR was achieved in 69% of cases. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that perilesional tumor resection was associated with a significantly higher rate of CR than intralesional resection (81% vs 62%, multivariate odds ratio = 2.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.8-3.4, P < .001). Among tumors in eloquent cortex, multivariate analysis showed that patients who underwent perilesional resection had a higher rate of CR (79% vs 58%, respectively, P < .001) and a lower rate of neurological complications (11% vs 20%, respectively, P = .018) than those who underwent intralesional resection. CONCLUSION: Circumferential perilesional resection of GBM is associated with significantly higher rates of CR and lower rates of neurological complications than intralesional resection, even for tumors arising in eloquent locations. Perilesional resection, when feasible, should be considered as a preferred option.

Evidence-Based Optimization of Post-Treatment Surveillance for Skull Base Chordomas Based on Local and Distant Disease Progression.

BACKGROUND: There are no guidelines regarding post-treatment surveillance specific to skull base chordomas. OBJECTIVE: To determine an optimal imaging surveillance schedule to detect both local and distant metastatic skull base chordoma recurrences. METHODS: A retrospective review of 91 patients who underwent treatment for skull base chordoma between 1993 and 2017 was conducted. Time to and location of local and distant recurrence(s) were cataloged. Existing chordoma surveillance recommendations (National Comprehensive Cancer Network [NCCN], London and South East Sarcoma Network [LSESN], European Society for Medical Oncology [ESMO], Chordoma Global Consensus Group [CGCG]) were applied to our cohort to compare the number of recurrent patients and months of undiagnosed tumor growth between surveillances. These findings were used to inform the creation of a revised imaging surveillance protocol (MD Anderson Cancer Center Chordoma Imaging Protocol [MDACC-CIP]), presented here. RESULTS: Thirty-four patients with 79 local/systemic recurrences met inclusion criteria. Mean age at diagnosis and follow-up time were 45 yr and 79 mo, respectively. The MDACC-CIP imaging protocol significantly reduced the time to diagnosis of recurrence compared with the LSESN and CGCG/ESMO imaging protocols for surveillance of local disease with a cumulative/average of 576/16.9 (LSESN), 336/9.8 (CGCG), and 170/5.0 (MDACC-CIP) months of undetected growth, respectively. The NCCN and MDACC-CIP guidelines for distant metastatic surveillance identified a cumulative/average of 65/6.5 and 51/5.1 mo of undetected growth, respectively, and were not significantly different. CONCLUSION: The MDACC-CIP for skull base chordoma accounts for recurrence trends unique to this disease, including a higher rate of leptomeningeal spread than sacrococcygeal primaries, resulting in improved sensitivity and prompt diagnosis.