Host genetics and COVID-19 severity: increasing the accuracy of latest severity scores by Boolean quantum features.

The impact of common and rare variants in COVID-19 host genetics has been widely studied. In particular, in Fallerini et al. (Human genetics, 2022, 141, 147-173), common and rare variants were used to define an interpretable machine learning model for predicting COVID-19 severity. First, variants were converted into sets of Boolean features, depending on the absence or the presence of variants in each gene. An ensemble of LASSO logistic regression models was used to identify the most informative Boolean features with respect to the genetic bases of severity. After that, the Boolean features, selected by these logistic models, were combined into an Integrated PolyGenic Score (IPGS), which offers a very simple description of the contribution of host genetics in COVID-19 severity.. IPGS leads to an accuracy of 55%-60% on different cohorts, and, after a logistic regression with both IPGS and age as inputs, it leads to an accuracy of 75%. The goal of this paper is to improve the previous results, using not only the most informative Boolean features with respect to the genetic bases of severity but also the information on host organs involved in the disease. In this study, we generalize the IPGS adding a statistical weight for each organ, through the transformation of Boolean features into "Boolean quantum features," inspired by quantum mechanics. The organ coefficients were set via the application of the genetic algorithm PyGAD, and, after that, we defined two new integrated polygenic scores (IPGSph1 and IPGSph2). By applying a logistic regression with both IPGS, (IPGSph2 (or indifferently IPGSph1) and age as inputs, we reached an accuracy of 84%-86%, thus improving the results previously shown in Fallerini et al. (Human genetics, 2022, 141, 147-173) by a factor of 10%.

A genome-wide association study for survival from a multi-centre European study identified variants associated with COVID-19 risk of death.

The clinical manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection vary widely among patients, from asymptomatic to life-threatening. Host genetics is one of the factors that contributes to this variability as previously reported by the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (HGI), which identified sixteen loci associated with COVID-19 severity. Herein, we investigated the genetic determinants of COVID-19 mortality, by performing a case-only genome-wide survival analysis, 60 days after infection, of 3904 COVID-19 patients from the GEN-COVID and other European series (EGAS00001005304 study of the COVID-19 HGI). Using imputed genotype data, we carried out a survival analysis using the Cox model adjusted for age, age2, sex, series, time of infection, and the first ten principal components. We observed a genome-wide significant (P-value < 5.0 × 10-8) association of the rs117011822 variant, on chromosome 11, of rs7208524 on chromosome 17, approaching the genome-wide threshold (P-value = 5.19 × 10-8). A total of 113 variants were associated with survival at P-value < 1.0 × 10-5 and most of them regulated the expression of genes involved in immune response (e.g., CD300 and KLR genes), or in lung repair and function (e.g., FGF19 and CDH13). Overall, our results suggest that germline variants may modulate COVID-19 risk of death, possibly through the regulation of gene expression in immune response and lung function pathways.

A unified framework for estimating country-specific cumulative incidence for 18 diseases stratified by polygenic risk.

Polygenic scores (PGSs) offer the ability to predict genetic risk for complex diseases across the life course; a key benefit over short-term prediction models. To produce risk estimates relevant to clinical and public health decision-making, it is important to account for varying effects due to age and sex. Here, we develop a novel framework to estimate country-, age-, and sex-specific estimates of cumulative incidence stratified by PGS for 18 high-burden diseases. We integrate PGS associations from seven studies in four countries (N = 1,197,129) with disease incidences from the Global Burden of Disease. PGS has a significant sex-specific effect for asthma, hip osteoarthritis, gout, coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D), with all but T2D exhibiting a larger effect in men. PGS has a larger effect in younger individuals for 13 diseases, with effects decreasing linearly with age. We show for breast cancer that, relative to individuals in the bottom 20% of polygenic risk, the top 5% attain an absolute risk for screening eligibility 16.3 years earlier. Our framework increases the generalizability of results from biobank studies and the accuracy of absolute risk estimates by appropriately accounting for age- and sex-specific PGS effects. Our results highlight the potential of PGS as a screening tool which may assist in the early prevention of common diseases.

Heterozygosity for neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis predisposes to bipolar disorder

Objective: Bipolar disorder is a heritable chronic mental disorder that causes psychosocial impairment through depressive/manic episodes. Familial transmission of bipolar disorder does not follow simple Mendelian patterns of inheritance. The aim of this study was to describe a large family with 12 members affected by bipolar disorder. Whole-exome sequencing was performed for eight members, three of whom were diagnosed with bipolar disorder, and another reported as "borderline." Methods: Whole-exome sequencing data allowed us to select variants that the affected members had in common, including and excluding the "borderline" individual with moderate anxiety and obsessive-compulsive traits. Results: The results favored designating certain genes as predispositional to bipolar disorder: a heterozygous missense variant in CLN6 resulted in a "borderline" phenotype that, if combined with a heterozygous missense variant in ZNF92, is responsible for the more severe bipolar disorder phenotype. Both rare missense changes are predicted to disrupt protein function. Conclusions: Loss of both alleles in CLN6 causes neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis, a severe progressive childhood neurological disorder. Our results indicate that heterozygous CLN6 carriers, previously reported as healthy, may be susceptible to bipolar disorder later in life if associated with additional variants in ZNF92.