Proportion and number of cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in the United States, 2019.

In 2018, the authors reported estimates of the number and proportion of cancers attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in 2014 in the United States. These data are useful for advocating for and informing cancer prevention and control. Herein, based on up-to-date relative risk and cancer occurrence data, the authors estimated the proportion and number of invasive cancer cases (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) and deaths, overall and for 30 cancer types among adults who were aged 30 years and older in 2019 in the United States, that were attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors. These included cigarette smoking; second-hand smoke; excess body weight; alcohol consumption; consumption of red and processed meat; low consumption of fruits and vegetables, dietary fiber, and dietary calcium; physical inactivity; ultraviolet radiation; and seven carcinogenic infections. Numbers of cancer cases and deaths were obtained from data sources with complete national coverage, risk factor prevalence estimates from nationally representative surveys, and associated relative risks of cancer from published large-scale pooled or meta-analyses. In 2019, an estimated 40.0% (713,340 of 1,781,649) of all incident cancers (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) and 44.0% (262,120 of 595,737) of all cancer deaths in adults aged 30 years and older in the United States were attributable to the evaluated risk factors. Cigarette smoking was the leading risk factor contributing to cancer cases and deaths overall (19.3% and 28.5%, respectively), followed by excess body weight (7.6% and 7.3%, respectively), and alcohol consumption (5.4% and 4.1%, respectively). For 19 of 30 evaluated cancer types, more than one half of the cancer cases and deaths were attributable to the potentially modifiable risk factors considered in this study. Lung cancer had the highest number of cancer cases (201,660) and deaths (122,740) attributable to evaluated risk factors, followed by female breast cancer (83,840 cases), skin melanoma (82,710), and colorectal cancer (78,440) for attributable cases and by colorectal (25,800 deaths), liver (14,720), and esophageal (13,600) cancer for attributable deaths. Large numbers of cancer cases and deaths in the United States are attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors, underscoring the potential to substantially reduce the cancer burden through broad and equitable implementation of preventive initiatives.

American Cancer Society nutrition and physical activity guideline for cancer survivors.

The overall 5-year relative survival rate for all cancers combined is now 68%, and there are over 16.9 million survivors in the United States. Evidence from laboratory and observational studies suggests that factors such as diet, physical activity, and obesity may affect risk for recurrence and overall survival after a cancer diagnosis. The purpose of this American Cancer Society guideline is to provide evidence-based, cancer-specific recommendations for anthropometric parameters, physical activity, diet, and alcohol intake for reducing recurrence and cancer-specific and overall mortality. The audiences for this guideline are health care providers caring for cancer survivors as well as cancer survivors and their families. The guideline is intended to serve as a resource for informing American Cancer Society programs, health policy, and the media. Sources of evidence that form the basis of this guideline are systematic literature reviews, meta-analyses, pooled analyses of cohort studies, and large randomized clinical trials published since 2012. Recommendations for nutrition and physical activity during cancer treatment, informed by current practice, large cancer care organizations, and reviews of other expert bodies, are also presented. To provide additional context for the guidelines, the authors also include information on the relationship between health-related behaviors and comorbidities, long-term sequelae and patient-reported outcomes, and health disparities, with attention to enabling survivors' ability to adhere to recommendations. Approaches to meet survivors' needs are addressed as well as clinical care coordination and resources for nutrition and physical activity counseling after a cancer diagnosis.

Outdoor air pollution and cancer: An overview of the current evidence and public health recommendations.

Outdoor air pollution is a major contributor to the burden of disease worldwide. Most of the global population resides in places where air pollution levels, because of emissions from industry, power generation, transportation, and domestic burning, considerably exceed the World Health Organization's health-based air-quality guidelines. Outdoor air pollution poses an urgent worldwide public health challenge because it is ubiquitous and has numerous serious adverse human health effects, including cancer. Currently, there is substantial evidence from studies of humans and experimental animals as well as mechanistic evidence to support a causal link between outdoor (ambient) air pollution, and especially particulate matter (PM) in outdoor air, with lung cancer incidence and mortality. It is estimated that hundreds of thousands of lung cancer deaths annually worldwide are attributable to PM air pollution. Epidemiological evidence on outdoor air pollution and the risk of other types of cancer, such as bladder cancer or breast cancer, is more limited. Outdoor air pollution may also be associated with poorer cancer survival, although further research is needed. This report presents an overview of outdoor air pollutants, sources, and global levels, as well as a description of epidemiological evidence linking outdoor air pollution with cancer incidence and mortality. Biological mechanisms of air pollution-derived carcinogenesis are also described. This report concludes by summarizing public health/policy recommendations, including multilevel interventions aimed at individual, community, and regional scales. Specific roles for medical and health care communities with regard to prevention and advocacy and recommendations for further research are also described.

American Cancer Society guideline for diet and physical activity for cancer prevention.

The American Cancer Society (ACS) publishes the Diet and Physical Activity Guideline to serve as a foundation for its communication, policy, and community strategies and, ultimately, to affect dietary and physical activity patterns among Americans. This guideline is developed by a national panel of experts in cancer research, prevention, epidemiology, public health, and policy, and reflects the most current scientific evidence related to dietary and activity patterns and cancer risk. The ACS guideline focuses on recommendations for individual choices regarding diet and physical activity patterns, but those choices occur within a community context that either facilitates or creates barriers to healthy behaviors. Therefore, this committee presents recommendations for community action to accompany the 4 recommendations for individual choices to reduce cancer risk. These recommendations for community action recognize that a supportive social and physical environment is indispensable if individuals at all levels of society are to have genuine opportunities to choose healthy behaviors. This 2020 ACS guideline is consistent with guidelines from the American Heart Association and the American Diabetes Association for the prevention of coronary heart disease and diabetes as well as for general health promotion, as defined by the 2015 to 2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans and the 2018 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans.

Global patterns in excess body weight and the associated cancer burden.

The prevalence of excess body weight and the associated cancer burden have been rising over the past several decades globally. Between 1975 and 2016, the prevalence of excess body weight in adults-defined as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/m2 -increased from nearly 21% in men and 24% in women to approximately 40% in both sexes. Notably, the prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 ) quadrupled in men, from 3% to 12%, and more than doubled in women, from 7% to 16%. This change, combined with population growth, resulted in a more than 6-fold increase in the number of obese adults, from 100 to 671 million. The largest absolute increase in obesity occurred among men and boys in high-income Western countries and among women and girls in Central Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. The simultaneous rise in excess body weight in almost all countries is thought to be driven largely by changes in the global food system, which promotes energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods, alongside reduced opportunities for physical activity. In 2012, excess body weight accounted for approximately 3.9% of all cancers (544,300 cases) with proportion varying from less than 1% in low-income countries to 7% or 8% in some high-income Western countries and in Middle Eastern and Northern African countries. The attributable burden by sex was higher for women (368,500 cases) than for men (175,800 cases). Given the pandemic proportion of excess body weight in high-income countries and the increasing prevalence in low- and middle-income countries, the global cancer burden attributable to this condition is likely to increase in the future. There is emerging consensus on opportunities for obesity control through the multisectoral coordinated implementation of core policy actions to promote an environment conducive to a healthy diet and active living. The rapid increase in both the prevalence of excess body weight and the associated cancer burden highlights the need for a rejuvenated focus on identifying, implementing, and evaluating interventions to prevent and control excess body weight.

Clonal hematopoiesis and risk of prostate cancer in large samples of European ancestry men.

Little is known regarding the potential relationship between clonal hematopoiesis (CH) of indeterminate potential (CHIP), which is the expansion of hematopoietic stem cells with somatic mutations, and risk of prostate cancer, the fifth leading cause of cancer death of men worldwide. We evaluated the association of age-related CHIP with overall and aggressive prostate cancer risk in two large whole-exome sequencing studies of 75 047 European ancestry men, including 7663 prostate cancer cases, 2770 of which had aggressive disease, and 3266 men carrying CHIP variants. We found that CHIP, defined by over 50 CHIP genes individually and in aggregate, was not significantly associated with overall (aggregate HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.76-1.13, P = 0.46) or aggressive (aggregate OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 0.92-1.41, P = 0.22) prostate cancer risk. CHIP was weakly associated with genetic risk of overall prostate cancer, measured using a polygenic risk score (OR = 1.05 per unit increase, 95% CI = 1.01-1.10, P = 0.01). CHIP was not significantly associated with carrying pathogenic/likely pathogenic/deleterious variants in DNA repair genes, which have previously been found to be associated with aggressive prostate cancer. While findings from this study suggest that CHIP is likely not a risk factor for prostate cancer, it will be important to investigate other types of CH in association with prostate cancer risk.

A blueprint for the primary prevention of cancer: Targeting established, modifiable risk factors.

In the United States, it is estimated that more than 1.7 million people will be diagnosed with cancer, and more than 600,000 will die of the disease in 2018. The financial costs associated with cancer risk factors and cancer care are enormous. To substantially reduce both the number of individuals diagnosed with and dying from cancer and the costs associated with cancer each year in the United States, government and industry and the public health, medical, and scientific communities must work together to develop, invest in, and implement comprehensive cancer control goals and strategies at the national level and expand ongoing initiatives at the state and local levels. This report is the second in a series of articles in this journal that, together, describe trends in cancer rates and the scientific evidence on cancer prevention, early detection, treatment, and survivorship to inform the identification of priorities for a comprehensive cancer control plan. Herein, we focus on existing evidence about established, modifiable risk factors for cancer, including prevalence estimates and the cancer burden due to each risk factor in the United States, and established primary prevention recommendations and interventions to reduce exposure to each risk factor.

Proportion and number of cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in the United States.

Contemporary information on the fraction of cancers that potentially could be prevented is useful for priority setting in cancer prevention and control. Herein, the authors estimate the proportion and number of invasive cancer cases and deaths, overall (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) and for 26 cancer types, in adults aged 30 years and older in the United States in 2014, that were attributable to major, potentially modifiable exposures (cigarette smoking; secondhand smoke; excess body weight; alcohol intake; consumption of red and processed meat; low consumption of fruits/vegetables, dietary fiber, and dietary calcium; physical inactivity; ultraviolet radiation; and 6 cancer-associated infections). The numbers of cancer cases were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Cancer Institute; the numbers of deaths were obtained from the CDC; risk factor prevalence estimates were obtained from nationally representative surveys; and associated relative risks of cancer were obtained from published, large-scale pooled analyses or meta-analyses. In the United States in 2014, an estimated 42.0% of all incident cancers (659,640 of 1570,975 cancers, excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) and 45.1% of cancer deaths (265,150 of 587,521 deaths) were attributable to evaluated risk factors. Cigarette smoking accounted for the highest proportion of cancer cases (19.0%; 298,970 cases) and deaths (28.8%; 169,180 deaths), followed by excess body weight (7.8% and 6.5%, respectively) and alcohol intake (5.6% and 4.0%, respectively). Lung cancer had the highest number of cancers (184,970 cases) and deaths (132,960 deaths) attributable to evaluated risk factors, followed by colorectal cancer (76,910 cases and 28,290 deaths). These results, however, may underestimate the overall proportion of cancers attributable to modifiable factors, because the impact of all established risk factors could not be quantified, and many likely modifiable risk factors are not yet firmly established as causal. Nevertheless, these findings underscore the vast potential for reducing cancer morbidity and mortality through broad and equitable implementation of known preventive measures. CA Cancer J Clin 2018;68:31-54. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

A Population-Based Study of Genes Previously Implicated in Breast Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Population-based estimates of the risk of breast cancer associated with germline pathogenic variants in cancer-predisposition genes are critically needed for risk assessment and management in women with inherited pathogenic variants. METHODS: In a population-based case-control study, we performed sequencing using a custom multigene amplicon-based panel to identify germline pathogenic variants in 28 cancer-predisposition genes among 32,247 women with breast cancer (case patients) and 32,544 unaffected women (controls) from population-based studies in the Cancer Risk Estimates Related to Susceptibility (CARRIERS) consortium. Associations between pathogenic variants in each gene and the risk of breast cancer were assessed. RESULTS: Pathogenic variants in 12 established breast cancer-predisposition genes were detected in 5.03% of case patients and in 1.63% of controls. Pathogenic variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2 were associated with a high risk of breast cancer, with odds ratios of 7.62 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.33 to 11.27) and 5.23 (95% CI, 4.09 to 6.77), respectively. Pathogenic variants in PALB2 were associated with a moderate risk (odds ratio, 3.83; 95% CI, 2.68 to 5.63). Pathogenic variants in BARD1, RAD51C, and RAD51D were associated with increased risks of estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer and triple-negative breast cancer, whereas pathogenic variants in ATM, CDH1, and CHEK2 were associated with an increased risk of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. Pathogenic variants in 16 candidate breast cancer-predisposition genes, including the c.657_661del5 founder pathogenic variant in NBN, were not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides estimates of the prevalence and risk of breast cancer associated with pathogenic variants in known breast cancer-predisposition genes in the U.S. population. These estimates can inform cancer testing and screening and improve clinical management strategies for women in the general population with inherited pathogenic variants in these genes. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation.).

Self-reported physical activity, sitting time, and mental and physical health among older cancer survivors compared with adults without a history of cancer.

BACKGROUND: To the authors' knowledge, few studies to date have examined associations between moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sitting time with quality of life in cancer survivors compared with a cancer-free group. The current study examined differences in global mental health (GMH) and global physical health (GPH) across levels of MVPA and sitting among cancer survivors and cancer-free participants. METHODS: Cancer Prevention Study II participants (59.9% of whom were female with an age of 77.8 ± 5.8 years) were grouped as: 1) survivors who were 1 to 5 years after diagnosis (3718 participants); 2) survivors who were 6 to 10 years after diagnosis (4248 participants); and 3) cancer-free participants (ie, no history of cancer; 69,860 participants). In 2009, participants completed MVPA, sitting, and Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System GMH/GPH surveys. Mean differences in GMH and GPH T scores across MVPA (none, 0 to <7.5, 7.5 to <15, 15 to <22.5, and ≥22.5 metabolic equivalent [MET]-hours/week) and sitting (0 to <3, 3 to <6, and ≥6 hours/day) were assessed using multivariate generalized linear models. RESULTS: The mean GMH and GPH scores were statistically significantly higher in cancer-free participants compared with cancer survivor groups, although the differences were not clinically meaningful (mean difference of 0.52 for GMH and 0.88 for GPH). More MVPA was associated with higher GMH and GPH scores for all 3 groups (P for trend <.001), and differences between the least and most active participants were found to be clinically meaningful (mean differences of ≥4.34 for GMH and ≥6.39 for GPH). Similarly, a lower duration of sitting was associated with higher GMH and GPH scores for all groups (P for trend <.001), with clinically meaningful differences observed between the least and most sedentary participants (mean differences of ≥2.74 for GMH and ≥3.75 for GPH). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of the current study provide evidence of the importance of increased MVPA and decreased sitting for improved health in older adults with or without a prior cancer diagnosis.

Breast cancer risk factors by mode of detection among screened women in the Cancer Prevention Study-II.

BACKGROUND: Identifying risk factors for women at high risk of symptom-detected breast cancers that were missed by screening would enable targeting of enhanced screening regimens. To this end, we examined associations of breast cancer risk factors by mode of detection in screened women from the Cancer Prevention Study (CPS)-II Nutrition Cohort. METHODS: Among 77,206 women followed for a median of 14.8 years, 2711 screen-detected and 1281 symptom-detected breast cancer cases were diagnosed. Multivariable-adjusted associations were estimated using joint Cox proportional hazards regression models with person-time calculated contingent on screening. RESULTS: Factors associated with higher risks of symptom-detected and screen-detected breast cancer included current combined hormone therapy (HT) use (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.72-2.48 and 1.45, 1.27-1.65, respectively) and history of benign breast disease (1.85, 1.64-2.08 and 1.43, 1.31-1.55, respectively). Current estrogen-only HT use was associated with symptom-detected (1.40, 1.15-1.71) but not screen-detected (0.95, 0.83-1.09) breast cancer. Higher risk of screen-detected but not symptom-detected breast cancer was observed for obese vs. normal body mass index (1.22, 1.01-1.48 and 0.76, 0.56-1.01, respectively), per 3 h/day sitting time (1.10, 1.04-1.16 and 0.97, 0.89-1.06, respectively), and ≥ 2 drinks per day vs. nondrinker (1.40, 1.16-1.69 and 1.27, 0.97-1.66, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Differences in risk factors for symptom-detected vs. screen-detected breast cancer were observed and most notably, use of combined and estrogen-only HT and a history of benign breast disease were associated with increased risk of symptomatic detected breast cancer. IMPACT: If confirmed, these data suggest that such women may benefit from more intensive screening to facilitate early detection.

Joint associations of physical activity and body mass index with the risk of established excess body fatness-related cancers among postmenopausal women.

PURPOSE: Excess body fatness and physical activity independently influence the risk of several types of cancer. However, few studies have examined whether physical activity mitigates the excess risk associated with higher body mass index (BMI). METHODS: We examined the individual and joint associations between BMI (kg/m2) and leisure-time moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA, MET-hours/week) with the risk of three established excess body fatness-related cancers (breast, colon, and endometrial) among 43,795 postmenopausal women in the Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II) Nutrition Cohort (1992/1993-2015). Further exclusions for women without an intact uterus resulted in 31,805 women for endometrial cancer analyses. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with interaction terms to assess multiplicative interaction. The relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) was calculated to assess additive interaction. RESULTS: BMI and MVPA were individually associated with breast and endometrial cancer risk, but only BMI was associated with colon cancer risk. In joint analyses, increasing levels of MVPA did not lower the risk of these cancers among obese women. For example, compared to the common referent (BMI 18.5- < 25 kg/m2, MVPA > 0- < 7.5 MET-hours/week), BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 was associated with a higher risk of breast cancer among women with low MVPA (> 0-< 7.5 MET-hours/week: HR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.22 - 1.67) and high MVPA (≥ 15 MET-hours/week: HR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.25 - 1.87; RERI = 0.20, 95% CI: -0.14, 0.54, multiplicative Pinteraction = 0.64). CONCLUSION: Our results do not support the hypothesis that leisure-time physical activity mitigates the excess risk associated with higher BMI for risk of breast, endometrial, or colon cancer among postmenopausal women.

Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter.

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major global health concern. Quantitative estimates of attributable mortality are based on disease-specific hazard ratio models that incorporate risk information from multiple PM2.5 sources (outdoor and indoor air pollution from use of solid fuels and secondhand and active smoking), requiring assumptions about equivalent exposure and toxicity. We relax these contentious assumptions by constructing a PM2.5-mortality hazard ratio function based only on cohort studies of outdoor air pollution that covers the global exposure range. We modeled the shape of the association between PM2.5 and nonaccidental mortality using data from 41 cohorts from 16 countries-the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then constructed GEMMs for five specific causes of death examined by the global burden of disease (GBD). The GEMM predicts 8.9 million [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.5-10.3] deaths in 2015, a figure 30% larger than that predicted by the sum of deaths among the five specific causes (6.9; 95% CI: 4.9-8.5) and 120% larger than the risk function used in the GBD (4.0; 95% CI: 3.3-4.8). Differences between the GEMM and GBD risk functions are larger for a 20% reduction in concentrations, with the GEMM predicting 220% higher excess deaths. These results suggest that PM2.5 exposure may be related to additional causes of death than the five considered by the GBD and that incorporation of risk information from other, nonoutdoor, particle sources leads to underestimation of disease burden, especially at higher concentrations.

Erythrocyte levels of cadmium and lead and risk of B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma and multiple myeloma.

Cadmium and lead are persistent environmental toxins that are known or probable carcinogens, based on evidence for causality for nonhematologic cancers. Associations of these metals with risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and multiple myeloma (MM) are unknown but biologically plausible. To examine the associations of circulating levels of lead and cadmium exposure with risk of B-cell NHL (B-NHL) and multiple myeloma, we conducted a nested case-control study among 299 incident B-cell NHLs and 76 MM cases within the Cancer Prevention Study-II Nutrition Cohort (CPS-II NC). Each case was incidence-density matched to two eligible controls on age, race, sex and blood draw date. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for lymphoid malignancies overall and stratified by subtype. We observed a significant positive association between high erythrocyte lead concentration and risk of lymphoid malignancies overall (RR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02-1.33 per 17.6 µg/L (1 standard deviation [SD])) and follicular lymphoma in particular (RR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.15-2.80 per SD). In contrast, there was no association between erythrocyte cadmium and risk of B-NHL (RR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.75-1.06 per 0.37 µg/L [1 SD]), or any B-NHL subtypes; but a strong inverse association with MM risk (RR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.38-0.89, per SD). Results from our study suggest a positive association between erythrocyte lead level and risk of lymphoid malignancies and a possible inverse association between cadmium and myeloma. Additional research is needed to confirm and further explore these findings.

Abdominal and gluteofemoral size and risk of liver cancer: The liver cancer pooling project.

Obesity is known to be associated with primary liver cancer (PLC), but the separate effects of excess abdominal and gluteofemoral size are unclear. Thus, we examined the association between waist and hip circumference with risk of PLC overall and by histologic type-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). The Liver Cancer Pooling Project is a consortium of prospective cohort studies that include data from 1,167,244 individuals (PLC n = 2,208, HCC n = 1,154, ICC n = 335). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using proportional hazards regression. Waist circumference, per 5 cm increase, was associated with an 11% increased PLC risk (HR = 1.11, 95%CI: 1.09-1.14), including when adjusted for hip circumference (HR = 1.12, 95%CI: 1.08-1.17) and also when restricted to individuals in a normal body mass index (BMI) range (18.5 to <25 kg/m2 ; HR = 1.14, 95%CI: 1.07-1.21). Hip circumference, per 5 cm increase, was associated with a 9% increased PLC risk (HR = 1.09, 95%CI: 1.06-1.12), but no association remained after adjustment for waist circumference (HR = 0.99, 95%CI: 0.94-1.03). HCC and ICC results were similar. These findings suggest that excess abdominal size is associated with an increased risk of liver cancer, even among individuals considered to have a normal BMI. However, excess gluteofemoral size alone confers no increased risk. Our findings extend prior analyses, which found an association between excess adiposity and risk of liver cancer, by disentangling the separate effects of excess abdominal and gluteofemoral size through utilization of both waist and hip circumference measurements.

The Association Between Body Mass Index and Pancreatic Cancer: Variation by Age at Body Mass Index Assessment.

Higher body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) is associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer in epidemiologic studies. However, BMI has usually been assessed at older ages, potentially underestimating the full impact of excess weight. We examined the association between BMI and pancreatic cancer mortality among 963,317 adults who were aged 30-89 years at their enrollment in Cancer Prevention Study II in 1982. During follow-up through 2014, a total of 8,354 participants died of pancreatic cancer. Hazard ratios per 5 BMI units, calculated using proportional hazards regression, declined steadily with age at BMI assessment, from 1.25 (95% confidence interval: 1.18, 1.33) in persons aged 30-49 years at enrollment to 1.13 (95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.26) in those aged 70-89 years at enrollment (P for trend = 0.005). On the basis of a hazard ratio of 1.25 per 5 BMI units at age 45 years, we estimated that 28% of US pancreatic cancer deaths among persons born in 1970-1974 will be attributable to BMI ≥25.0-nearly twice the equivalent proportion of those born in the 1930s, a birth cohort with much lower BMI in middle age. These results suggest that BMI before age 50 years is more strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk than BMI at older ages, and they underscore the importance of avoiding excess weight gain before middle age for preventing this highly fatal cancer.

Exogenous hormone use, reproductive factors and risk of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma among women: results from cohort studies in the Liver Cancer Pooling Project and the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) arises from cholangiocytes in the intrahepatic bile duct and is the second most common type of liver cancer. Cholangiocytes express both oestrogen receptor-α and -ß, and oestrogens positively modulate cholangiocyte proliferation. Studies in women and men have reported higher circulating oestradiol is associated with increased ICC risk, further supporting a hormonal aetiology. However, no observational studies have examined the associations between exogenous hormone use and reproductive factors, as proxies of endogenous hormone levels, and risk of ICC. METHODS: We harmonised data from 1,107,498 women who enroled in 12 North American-based cohort studies (in the Liver Cancer Pooling Project, LCPP) and the UK Biobank between 1980-1998 and 2006-2010, respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to generate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence internals (CI). Then, meta-analytic techniques were used to combine the estimates from the LCPP (n = 180 cases) and the UK Biobank (n = 57 cases). RESULTS: Hysterectomy was associated with a doubling of ICC risk (HR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.27-3.09), compared to women aged 50-54 at natural menopause. Long-term oral contraceptive use (9+ years) was associated with a 62% increased ICC risk (HR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.03-2.55). There was no association between ICC risk and other exogenous hormone use or reproductive factors. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that hysterectomy and long-term oral contraceptive use may be associated with an increased ICC risk.

Associations between reproductive factors and biliary tract cancers in women from the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is known to have a female predominance while other biliary tract cancers (BTCs) have a male predominance. However, the role of female reproductive factors in BTC etiology remains unclear. METHODS: We pooled data from 19 studies of >1.5 million women participating in the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project to examine the associations of parity, age at menarche, reproductive years, and age at menopause with BTC. Associations for age at menarche and reproductive years with BTC were analyzed separately for Asian and non-Asian women. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by study. RESULTS: During 21,681,798 person-years of follow-up, 875 cases of GBC, 379 of intrahepatic bile duct cancer (IHBDC), 450 of extrahepatic bile duct cancer (EHBDC), and 261 of ampulla of Vater cancer (AVC) occurred. High parity was associated with risk of GBC (HR ≥5 vs. 0 births 1.72; 95% CI 1.25-2.38). Age at menarche (HR per year increase 1.15; 95% CI 1.06-1.24) was associated with GBC risk in Asian women while reproductive years were associated with GBC risk (HR per 5 years 1.13; 95% CI 1.04-1.22) in non-Asian women. Later age at menarche was associated with IHBDC (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.09-1.31) and EHBDC (HR 1.11; 95% CI 1.01-1.22) in Asian women only. CONCLUSION: We observed an increased risk of GBC with increasing parity. Among Asian women, older age at menarche was associated with increased risk for GBC, IHBDC, and EHBDC, while increasing reproductive years was associated with GBC in non-Asian women. These results suggest that sex hormones have distinct effects on cancers across the biliary tract that vary by geography. LAY SUMMARY: Our findings show that the risk of gallbladder cancer is increased among women who have given birth (especially women with 5 or more children). In women from Asian countries, later age at menarche increases the risk of gallbladder cancer, intrahepatic bile duct cancer and extrahepatic bile duct cancer. We did not see this same association in women from Western countries. Age at menopause was not associated with the risk of any biliary tract cancers.

Adiposity, metabolites, and colorectal cancer risk: Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Higher adiposity increases the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but whether this relationship varies by anatomical sub-site or by sex is unclear. Further, the metabolic alterations mediating the effects of adiposity on CRC are not fully understood. METHODS: We examined sex- and site-specific associations of adiposity with CRC risk and whether adiposity-associated metabolites explain the associations of adiposity with CRC. Genetic variants from genome-wide association studies of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, unadjusted for BMI; N = 806,810), and 123 metabolites from targeted nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics (N = 24,925), were used as instruments. Sex-combined and sex-specific Mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted for BMI and WHR with CRC risk (58,221 cases and 67,694 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colorectal Cancer Transdisciplinary Study, and Colon Cancer Family Registry). Sex-combined MR was conducted for BMI and WHR with metabolites, for metabolites with CRC, and for BMI and WHR with CRC adjusted for metabolite classes in multivariable models. RESULTS: In sex-specific MR analyses, higher BMI (per 4.2 kg/m2) was associated with 1.23 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08, 1.38) times higher CRC odds among men (inverse-variance-weighted (IVW) model); among women, higher BMI (per 5.2 kg/m2) was associated with 1.09 (95% CI = 0.97, 1.22) times higher CRC odds. WHR (per 0.07 higher) was more strongly associated with CRC risk among women (IVW OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.08, 1.43) than men (IVW OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.81, 1.36). BMI or WHR was associated with 104/123 metabolites at false discovery rate-corrected P ≤ 0.05; several metabolites were associated with CRC, but not in directions that were consistent with the mediation of positive adiposity-CRC relations. In multivariable MR analyses, associations of BMI and WHR with CRC were not attenuated following adjustment for representative metabolite classes, e.g., the univariable IVW OR for BMI with CRC was 1.12 (95% CI = 1.00, 1.26), and this became 1.11 (95% CI = 0.99, 1.26) when adjusting for cholesterol in low-density lipoprotein particles. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that higher BMI more greatly raises CRC risk among men, whereas higher WHR more greatly raises CRC risk among women. Adiposity was associated with numerous metabolic alterations, but none of these explained associations between adiposity and CRC. More detailed metabolomic measures are likely needed to clarify the mechanistic pathways.