Unravelling the mystery of endemic versus translocated populations of the endangered Australian lungfish (Neoceratodus forsteri).

The Australian lungfish is a primitive and endangered representative of the subclass Dipnoi. The distribution of this species is limited to south-east Queensland, with some populations considered endemic and others possibly descending from translocations in the late nineteenth century shortly after European discovery. Attempts to resolve the historical distribution of this species have met with conflicting results based on descriptive genetic studies. Understanding if all populations are endemic or some are the result of, or influenced by, translocation events, has implications for conservation management. In this work, we analysed the genetic variation at three types of markers (mtDNA genomes, 11 STRs and 5196 nuclear SNPs) using the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm to compare several demographic models. We postulated different contributions of Mary River and Burnett River gene pools into the Brisbane River and North Pine River populations, related to documented translocation events. We ran the analysis for each marker type separately, and we also estimated the posterior probabilities of the models combining the markers. Nuclear SNPs have the highest power to correctly identify the true model among the simulated datasets (where the model was known), but different marker types typically provided similar answers. The most supported demographic model able to explain the real dataset implies that an endemic gene pool is still present in the Brisbane and North Pine Rivers and coexists with the gene pools derived from past documented translocation events. These results support the view that ABC modelling can be useful to reconstruct complex historical translocation events with contemporary implications, and will inform ongoing conservation efforts for the endangered and iconic Australian lungfish.

Helicobacter pylori's historical journey through Siberia and the Americas.

The gastric bacterium Helicobacter pylori shares a coevolutionary history with humans that predates the out-of-Africa diaspora, and the geographical specificities of H. pylori populations reflect multiple well-known human migrations. We extensively sampled H. pylori from 16 ethnically diverse human populations across Siberia to help resolve whether ancient northern Eurasian populations persisted at high latitudes through the last glacial maximum and the relationships between present-day Siberians and Native Americans. A total of 556 strains were cultivated and genotyped by multilocus sequence typing, and 54 representative draft genomes were sequenced. The genetic diversity across Eurasia and the Americas was structured into three populations: hpAsia2, hpEastAsia, and hpNorthAsia. hpNorthAsia is closely related to the subpopulation hspIndigenousAmericas from Native Americans. Siberian bacteria were structured into five other subpopulations, two of which evolved through a divergence from hpAsia2 and hpNorthAsia, while three originated though Holocene admixture. The presence of both anciently diverged and recently admixed strains across Siberia support both Pleistocene persistence and Holocene recolonization. We also show that hspIndigenousAmericas is endemic in human populations across northern Eurasia. The evolutionary history of hspIndigenousAmericas was reconstructed using approximate Bayesian computation, which showed that it colonized the New World in a single migration event associated with a severe demographic bottleneck followed by low levels of recent admixture across the Bering Strait.

Y-chromosome variability and genetic history of Commons from Northern Italy.

OBJECTIVES: Genetic drift and admixture are driving forces in human evolution, but their concerted impact to population evolution in historical times and at a micro-geographic scale is poorly assessed. In this study we test a demographic model encompassing both admixture and drift to the case of social-cultural isolates such as the so-called "Commons." MATERIALS AND METHODS: Commons are peculiar institutions of medieval origins whose key feature is the tight relationship between population and territory, mediated by the collective property of shared resources. Here, we analyze the Y-chromosomal genetic structure of four Commons (for a total of 366 samples) from the Central and Eastern Padana plain in Northern Italy. RESULTS: Our results reveal that all these groups exhibit patterns of significant diversity reduction, peripheral/outlier position within the Italian/European genetic space and high frequency of Common-specific haplogroups. By explicitly testing different drift-admixture models, we show that a drift-only model is more probable for Central Padana Commons, while additional admixture (~20%) from external population around the same time of their foundation cannot be excluded for the Eastern ones. DISCUSSION: Building on these results, we suggest central Middle Ages as the most probable age of foundation for three of the considered Commons, the remaining one pointing to late antiquity. We conclude that an admixture-drift model is particularly useful for interpreting the genetic structure and recent demographic history of small-scale populations in which social-cultural features play a significant role.

Contrasting Paternal and Maternal Genetic Histories of Thai and Lao Populations.

The human demographic history of Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has not been well studied; in particular, there have been very few sequence-based studies of variation in the male-specific portions of the Y chromosome (MSY). Here, we report new MSY sequences of ∼2.3 mB from 914 males and combine these with previous data for a total of 928 MSY sequences belonging to 59 populations from Thailand and Laos who speak languages belonging to three major Mainland Southeast Asia families: Austroasiatic, Tai-Kadai, and Sino-Tibetan. Among the 92 MSY haplogroups, two main MSY lineages (O1b1a1a* [O-M95*] and O2a* [O-M324*]) contribute substantially to the paternal genetic makeup of Thailand and Laos. We also analyze complete mitochondrial DNA genome sequences published previously from the same groups and find contrasting pattern of male and female genetic variation and demographic expansions, especially for the hill tribes, Mon, and some major Thai groups. In particular, we detect an effect of postmarital residence pattern on genetic diversity in patrilocal versus matrilocal groups. Additionally, both male and female demographic expansions were observed during the early Mesolithic (∼10 ka), with two later major male-specific expansions during the Neolithic period (∼4-5 ka) and the Bronze/Iron Age (∼2.0-2.5 ka). These two later expansions are characteristic of the modern Austroasiatic and Tai-Kadai groups, respectively, consistent with recent ancient DNA studies. We simulate MSY data based on three demographic models (continuous migration, demic diffusion, and cultural diffusion) of major Thai groups and find different results from mitochondrial DNA simulations, supporting contrasting male and female genetic histories.

Survival and divergence in a small group: The extraordinary genomic history of the endangered Apennine brown bear stragglers.

About 100 km east of Rome, in the central Apennine Mountains, a critically endangered population of ∼50 brown bears live in complete isolation. Mating outside this population is prevented by several 100 km of bear-free territories. We exploited this natural experiment to better understand the gene and genomic consequences of surviving at extremely small population size. We found that brown bear populations in Europe lost connectivity since Neolithic times, when farming communities expanded and forest burning was used for land clearance. In central Italy, this resulted in a 40-fold population decline. The overall genomic impact of this decline included the complete loss of variation in the mitochondrial genome and along long stretches of the nuclear genome. Several private and deleterious amino acid changes were fixed by random drift; predicted effects include energy deficit, muscle weakness, anomalies in cranial and skeletal development, and reduced aggressiveness. Despite this extreme loss of diversity, Apennine bear genomes show nonrandom peaks of high variation, possibly maintained by balancing selection, at genomic regions significantly enriched for genes associated with immune and olfactory systems. Challenging the paradigm of increased extinction risk in small populations, we suggest that random fixation of deleterious alleles (i) can be an important driver of divergence in isolation, (ii) can be tolerated when balancing selection prevents random loss of variation at important genes, and (iii) is followed by or results directly in favorable behavioral changes.

The female ancestor's tale: Long-term matrilineal continuity in a nonisolated region of Tuscany.

OBJECTIVES: With the advent of ancient DNA analyses, it has been possible to disentangle the contribution of ancient populations to the genetic pool of the modern inhabitants of many regions. Reconstructing the maternal ancestry has often highlighted genetic continuity over several millennia, but almost always in isolated areas. Here we analyze North-western Tuscany, a region that was a corridor of exchanges between Central Italy and the Western Mediterranean coast. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We newly obtained mitochondrial HVRI sequences from 28 individuals, and after gathering published data, we collected genetic information for 119 individuals from the region. Those span five periods during the last 5,000 years: Prehistory, Etruscan age, Roman age, Renaissance, and Present-day. We used serial coalescent simulations in an approximate Bayesian computation framework to test for continuity between the mentioned groups. RESULTS: Our analyses always favor continuity over discontinuity for all groups considered, with the Etruscans being part of the genealogy. Moreover, the posterior distributions of the parameters support very small female effective population sizes. CONCLUSIONS: The observed signals of long-term genetic continuity and isolation are in contrast with the history of the region, conquered several times (Etruscans, Romans, Lombards, and French). While the Etruscans appear as a local population, intermediate between the prehistoric and the other samples, we suggest that the other conquerors-arriving from far-had a consistent social or sex bias, hence only marginally affecting the maternal lineages. At the same time, our results show that long-term genealogical continuity is not necessarily linked to geographical isolation.

Origin and dynamics of admixture in Brazilians and its effect on the pattern of deleterious mutations.

While South Americans are underrepresented in human genomic diversity studies, Brazil has been a classical model for population genetics studies on admixture. We present the results of the EPIGEN Brazil Initiative, the most comprehensive up-to-date genomic analysis of any Latin-American population. A population-based genome-wide analysis of 6,487 individuals was performed in the context of worldwide genomic diversity to elucidate how ancestry, kinship, and inbreeding interact in three populations with different histories from the Northeast (African ancestry: 50%), Southeast, and South (both with European ancestry >70%) of Brazil. We showed that ancestry-positive assortative mating permeated Brazilian history. We traced European ancestry in the Southeast/South to a wider European/Middle Eastern region with respect to the Northeast, where ancestry seems restricted to Iberia. By developing an approximate Bayesian computation framework, we infer more recent European immigration to the Southeast/South than to the Northeast. Also, the observed low Native-American ancestry (6-8%) was mostly introduced in different regions of Brazil soon after the European Conquest. We broadened our understanding of the African diaspora, the major destination of which was Brazil, by revealing that Brazilians display two within-Africa ancestry components: one associated with non-Bantu/western Africans (more evident in the Northeast and African Americans) and one associated with Bantu/eastern Africans (more present in the Southeast/South). Furthermore, the whole-genome analysis of 30 individuals (42-fold deep coverage) shows that continental admixture rather than local post-Columbian history is the main and complex determinant of the individual amount of deleterious genotypes.

Recent Selection Changes in Human Genes under Long-Term Balancing Selection.

Balancing selection is an important evolutionary force that maintains genetic and phenotypic diversity in populations. Most studies in humans have focused on long-standing balancing selection, which persists over long periods of time and is generally shared across populations. But balanced polymorphisms can also promote fast adaptation, especially when the environment changes. To better understand the role of previously balanced alleles in novel adaptations, we analyzed in detail four loci as case examples of this mechanism. These loci show hallmark signatures of long-term balancing selection in African populations, but not in Eurasian populations. The disparity between populations is due to changes in allele frequencies, with intermediate frequency alleles in Africans (likely due to balancing selection) segregating instead at low- or high-derived allele frequency in Eurasia. We explicitly tested the support for different evolutionary models with an approximate Bayesian computation approach and show that the patterns in PKDREJ, SDR39U1, and ZNF473 are best explained by recent changes in selective pressure in certain populations. Specifically, we infer that alleles previously under long-term balancing selection, or alleles linked to them, were recently targeted by positive selection in Eurasian populations. Balancing selection thus likely served as a source of functional alleles that mediated subsequent adaptations to novel environments.

Complete mitochondrial genomes of Thai and Lao populations indicate an ancient origin of Austroasiatic groups and demic diffusion in the spread of Tai-Kadai languages.

The Tai-Kadai (TK) language family is thought to have originated in southern China and spread to Thailand and Laos, but it is not clear if TK languages spread by demic diffusion (i.e., a migration of people from southern China) or by cultural diffusion, with native Austroasiatic (AA) speakers switching to TK languages. To address this and other questions, we obtained 1234 complete mtDNA genome sequences from 51 TK and AA groups from Thailand and Laos. We find high genetic heterogeneity across the region, with 212 different haplogroups, and significant genetic differentiation among different samples from the same ethnolinguistic group. TK groups are more genetically homogeneous than AA groups, with the latter exhibiting more ancient/basal mtDNA lineages, and showing more drift effects. Modeling of demic diffusion, cultural diffusion, and admixture scenarios consistently supports the spread of TK languages by demic diffusion.

Genome diversity in the Neolithic Globular Amphorae culture and the spread of Indo-European languages.

It is unclear whether Indo-European languages in Europe spread from the Pontic steppes in the late Neolithic, or from Anatolia in the Early Neolithic. Under the former hypothesis, people of the Globular Amphorae culture (GAC) would be descended from Eastern ancestors, likely representing the Yamnaya culture. However, nuclear (six individuals typed for 597 573 SNPs) and mitochondrial (11 complete sequences) DNA from the GAC appear closer to those of earlier Neolithic groups than to the DNA of all other populations related to the Pontic steppe migration. Explicit comparisons of alternative demographic models via approximate Bayesian computation confirmed this pattern. These results are not in contrast to Late Neolithic gene flow from the Pontic steppes into Central Europe. However, they add nuance to this model, showing that the eastern affinities of the GAC in the archaeological record reflect cultural influences from other groups from the East, rather than the movement of people.

Effect of migration patterns on maternal genetic structure: a case of Tai-Kadai migration from China to Thailand.

The migration of the Tai-Kadai speaking people from southern China to northern Thailand over the past hundreds of years has revealed numerous patterns that have likely been influenced by routes, purposes and periods of time. To study the effects of different migration patterns on Tai-Kadai maternal genetic structure, mitochondrial DNA hypervariable region I sequences from the Yong and the Lue people having well-documented histories in northern Thailand were analyzed. Although the Yong and Lue people were historically close relatives who shared Xishuangbanna Dai ancestors, significant genetic differences have been observed among them. The Yong people who have been known to practice mass migration have exhibited a closer genetic affinity to their Dai ancestors than have the Lue people. Genetic heterogeneity and a sudden reduced effective population size within the Lue group is likely a direct result of the circumstances of the founder effect.

Genomic validation of the differential preservation of population history in modern human cranial anatomy.

OBJECTIVES: In modern humans, the significant correlation between neutral genetic loci and cranial anatomy suggests that the cranium preserves a population history signature. However, there is disagreement on whether certain parts of the cranium preserve this signature to a greater degree than other parts. It is also unclear how different quantitative measures of phenotype affect the association of genetic variation and anatomy. Here, we revisit these matters by testing the correlation of genetic distances and various phenotypic distances for ten modern human populations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Geometric morphometric shape data from the crania of adult individuals (n = 224) are used to calculate phenotypic PST , Procrustes, and Mahalanobis distances. We calculate their correlation to neutral genetic distances, FST , derived from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We subset the cranial data into landmark configurations that include the neurocranium, the face, and the temporal bone in order to evaluate whether these cranial regions are differentially correlated to neutral genetic variation. RESULTS: Our results show that PST , Mahalanobis, and Procrustes distances are correlated with FST distances to varying degrees. They indicate that overall cranial shape is significantly correlated with neutral genetic variation. Of the component parts examined, PST distances for both the temporal bone and the face have a stronger association with FST distances than the neurocranium. When controlling for population divergence time, only the whole cranium and the temporal bone have a statistically significant association with FST distances. DISCUSSION: Our results confirm that the cranium, as a whole, and the temporal bone can be used to reconstruct modern human population history.

Genomic and cranial phenotype data support multiple modern human dispersals from Africa and a southern route into Asia.

Despite broad consensus on Africa as the main place of origin for anatomically modern humans, their dispersal pattern out of the continent continues to be intensely debated. In extant human populations, the observation of decreasing genetic and phenotypic diversity at increasing distances from sub-Saharan Africa has been interpreted as evidence for a single dispersal, accompanied by a series of founder effects. In such a scenario, modern human genetic and phenotypic variation was primarily generated through successive population bottlenecks and drift during a rapid worldwide expansion out of Africa in the Late Pleistocene. However, recent genetic studies, as well as accumulating archaeological and paleoanthropological evidence, challenge this parsimonious model. They suggest instead a "southern route" dispersal into Asia as early as the late Middle Pleistocene, followed by a separate dispersal into northern Eurasia. Here we test these competing out-of-Africa scenarios by modeling hypothetical geographical migration routes and assessing their correlation with neutral population differentiation, as measured by genetic polymorphisms and cranial shape variables of modern human populations from Africa and Asia. We show that both lines of evidence support a multiple-dispersals model in which Australo-Melanesian populations are relatively isolated descendants of an early dispersal, whereas other Asian populations are descended from, or highly admixed with, members of a subsequent migration event.

The Uromodulin Gene Locus Shows Evidence of Pathogen Adaptation through Human Evolution.

Common variants in the UMOD gene encoding uromodulin, associated with risk of hypertension and CKD in the general population, increase UMOD expression and urinary excretion of uromodulin, causing salt-sensitive hypertension and renal lesions. To determine the effect of selective pressure on variant frequency, we investigated the allelic frequency of the lead UMOD variant rs4293393 in 156 human populations, in eight ancient human genomes, and in primate genomes. The T allele of rs4293393, associated with CKD risk, has high frequency in most modern populations and was the one detected in primate genomes. In contrast, we identified only the derived, C allele in Denisovan and Neanderthal genomes. The distribution of the UMOD ancestral allele did not follow the ancestral susceptibility model observed for variants associated with salt-sensitive hypertension. Instead, the global frequencies of the UMOD alleles significantly correlated with pathogen diversity (bacteria, helminths) and prevalence of antibiotic-resistant urinary tract infections (UTIs). The inverse correlation found between urinary levels of uromodulin and markers of UTIs in the general population substantiates the link between UMOD variants and protection against UTIs. These data strongly suggest that the UMOD ancestral allele, driving higher urinary excretion of uromodulin, has been kept at a high frequency because of its protective effect against UTIs.

Genetic and linguistic correlation of the Kra-Dai-speaking groups in Thailand.

The Kra-Dai linguistic family includes Thai and Lao as well as a great number of languages spoken by ethnic minorities in Southeast Asia. In Thailand, a dozen of other Kra-Dai languages are spoken in addition to Thai, the national language. The genetic structure of the Kra-Dai-speaking populations in Thailand has been studied extensively using uniparentally inherited markers. To extend this line of genetic investigation, this study used 15 autosomal microsatellites of 500 individuals from 11 populations, belonging to nine Kra-Dai ethnicities, namely, the Kaleung, Phu Thai, Saek, Nyo, Lao Isan, Yuan, Black Tai, Phuan and Lue. These ethnolinguistic groups are dispersed in three different geographic regions of Thailand, that is, Northern, Northeastern and Central. The results show a very low average of pairwised F(st) (0.0099), as well as no population substructure based on STRUCTURE analysis, indicating genetic homogeneity within the Kra-Dai-speaking group, possibly owing to shared linguistic ancestry. The Mantel test, an analysis of molecular variance, and the approximate Bayesian computation procedure employed to evaluate potential factors for driving genetic diversity revealed that language is the predominant factor affecting genetic variations, whereas geography is not. The result of distance-based clustering analyses and spatial analysis of molecular variance revealed genetic distinctions of some populations, reflecting the effects of genetic drift and gene flow on allele frequency within populations, in concordance with the result of R-matrix regression. The genetic and linguistic affiliations of the contemporary Kra-Dai-speaking groups are consistent with each other despite certain deviation due to various evolutionary factors that may have occurred during their migrations and resettlements.

The Neanderthal in the karst: First dating, morphometric, and paleogenetic data on the fossil skeleton from Altamura (Italy).

In 1993, a fossil hominin skeleton was discovered in the karst caves of Lamalunga, near Altamura, in southern Italy. Despite the fact that this specimen represents one of the most extraordinary hominin specimens ever found in Europe, for the last two decades our knowledge of it has been based purely on the documented on-site observations. Recently, the retrieval from the cave of a fragment of bone (part of the right scapula) allowed the first dating of the individual, the quantitative analysis of a diagnostic morphological feature, and a preliminary paleogenetic characterization of this hominin skeleton from Altamura. Overall, the results concur in indicating that it belongs to the hypodigm of Homo neanderthalensis, with some phenetic peculiarities that appear consistent with a chronology ranging from 172 ± 15 ka to 130.1 ± 1.9 ka. Thus, the skeleton from Altamura represents the most ancient Neanderthal from which endogenous DNA has ever been extracted.

Across language families: Genome diversity mirrors linguistic variation within Europe.

OBJECTIVES: The notion that patterns of linguistic and biological variation may cast light on each other and on population histories dates back to Darwin's times; yet, turning this intuition into a proper research program has met with serious methodological difficulties, especially affecting language comparisons. This article takes advantage of two new tools of comparative linguistics: a refined list of Indo-European cognate words, and a novel method of language comparison estimating linguistic diversity from a universal inventory of grammatical polymorphisms, and hence enabling comparison even across different families. We corroborated the method and used it to compare patterns of linguistic and genomic variation in Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two sets of linguistic distances, lexical and syntactic, were inferred from these data and compared with measures of geographic and genomic distance through a series of matrix correlation tests. Linguistic and genomic trees were also estimated and compared. A method (Treemix) was used to infer migration episodes after the main population splits. RESULTS: We observed significant correlations between genomic and linguistic diversity, the latter inferred from data on both Indo-European and non-Indo-European languages. Contrary to previous observations, on the European scale, language proved a better predictor of genomic differences than geography. Inferred episodes of genetic admixture following the main population splits found convincing correlates also in the linguistic realm. DISCUSSION: These results pave the ground for previously unfeasible cross-disciplinary analyses at the worldwide scale, encompassing populations of distant language families.

Bayesian inferences suggest that Amazon Yunga Natives diverged from Andeans less than 5000 ybp: implications for South American prehistory.

BACKGROUND: Archaeology reports millenary cultural contacts between Peruvian Coast-Andes and the Amazon Yunga, a rainforest transitional region between Andes and Lower Amazonia. To clarify the relationships between cultural and biological evolution of these populations, in particular between Amazon Yungas and Andeans, we used DNA-sequence data, a model-based Bayesian approach and several statistical validations to infer a set of demographic parameters. RESULTS: We found that the genetic diversity of the Shimaa (an Amazon Yunga population) is a subset of that of Quechuas from Central-Andes. Using the Isolation-with-Migration population genetics model, we inferred that the Shimaa ancestors were a small subgroup that split less than 5300 years ago (after the development of complex societies) from an ancestral Andean population. After the split, the most plausible scenario compatible with our results is that the ancestors of Shimaas moved toward the Peruvian Amazon Yunga and incorporated the culture and language of some of their neighbors, but not a substantial amount of their genes. We validated our results using Approximate Bayesian Computations, posterior predictive tests and the analysis of pseudo-observed datasets. CONCLUSIONS: We presented a case study in which model-based Bayesian approaches, combined with necessary statistical validations, shed light into the prehistoric demographic relationship between Andeans and a population from the Amazon Yunga. Our results offer a testable model for the peopling of this large transitional environmental region between the Andes and the Lower Amazonia. However, studies on larger samples and involving more populations of these regions are necessary to confirm if the predominant Andean biological origin of the Shimaas is the rule, and not the exception.

Geography has more influence than language on maternal genetic structure of various northeastern Thai ethnicities.

Several literatures have shown the influence of geographic and linguistic factors in shaping genetic variation patterns, but their relative impact, if any, in the very heterogeneous northeastern region of Thailand has not yet been studied. This area, called Isan, is geographically structured in two wide basins, the Sakon Nakorn Basin and the Korat Basin, serving today as home to diverse ethnicities encompassing two different linguistic families, that is, the Austro-Asiatic; Suay (Kui), Mon, Chaobon (Nyahkur), So and Khmer, and the Tai-Kadai; Saek, Nyaw, Phu Tai, Kaleung and Lao Isan. In this study, we evaluated the relative role of geographic distance and barriers as well as linguistic differences as possible causes affecting the maternal genetic distances among northeastern Thai ethnicities. A 596-bp segment of the hypervariable region I mitochondrial DNA was utilized to elucidate the genetic structure and biological affinity from 433 individuals. Different statistical analyses agreed in suggesting that most ethnic groups in the Sakon Nakorn Basin are closely related. Mantel test revealed that genetic distances were highly associated to geographic (r = 0.445, P<0.01) but not to linguistic (r = 0.001, P>0.01) distances. Three evolutionary models were compared by Approximate Bayesian Computation. The posterior probability of the scenario, which assumed an initial population divergence possibly related to reduced gene flow among basins, was equal or higher than 0.87. All analyses exhibited concordant results supporting that geography was the most relevant factor in determining the maternal genetic structure of northeastern Thai populations.

Genetic evidence does not support an Etruscan origin in Anatolia.

The debate on the origins of Etruscans, documented in central Italy between the eighth century BC and the first century AD, dates back to antiquity. Herodotus described them as a group of immigrants from Lydia, in Western Anatolia, whereas for Dionysius of Halicarnassus they were an indigenous population. Dionysius' view is shared by most modern archeologists, but the observation of similarities between the (modern) mitochondrial DNAs (mtDNAs) of Turks and Tuscans was interpreted as supporting an Anatolian origin of the Etruscans. However, ancient DNA evidence shows that only some isolates, and not the bulk of the modern Tuscan population, are genetically related to the Etruscans. In this study, we tested alternative models of Etruscan origins by Approximate Bayesian Computation methods, comparing levels of genetic diversity in the mtDNAs of modern and ancient populations with those obtained by millions of computer simulations. The results show that the observed genetic similarities between modern Tuscans and Anatolians cannot be attributed to an immigration wave from the East leading to the onset of the Etruscan culture in Italy. Genetic links between Tuscany and Anatolia do exist, but date back to a remote stage of prehistory, possibly but not necessarily to the spread of farmers during the Neolithic period.