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Math Biosci ; 160(2): 191-213, 1999 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10472754

ABSTRACT

A SEIR model for the transmission of an infectious disease that spreads in a population through direct contact of the hosts is studied. The force of infection is of proportionate mixing type. A threshold sigma is identified which determines the outcome of the disease; if sigma < or = 1, the infected fraction of the population disappears so the disease dies out, while of sigma > 1, the infected fraction persists and a unique endemic equilibrium state is shown, under a mild restriction on the parameters, to be globally asymptotically stable in the interior of the feasible region. Two other threshold parameters sigma' and sigma are also identified; they determine the dynamics of the population sizes in the cases when the disease dies out and when it is endemic, respectively.


Subject(s)
Disease Transmission, Infectious , Models, Biological , Population Dynamics , Disease Outbreaks , Epidemiology , Humans
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