Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account.

Hybrid MCDA Methods to Integrate Multiple Ecosystem Services in Forest Management Planning: A Critical Review.

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision aid frequently used in the field of forest management planning. It includes the evaluation of multiple criteria such as the production of timber and non-timber forest products and tangible as well as intangible values of ecosystem services (ES). Hence, it is beneficial compared to those methods that take a purely financial perspective. Accordingly, MCDA methods are increasingly popular in the wide field of sustainability assessment. Hybrid approaches allow aggregating MCDA and, potentially, other decision-making techniques to make use of their individual benefits and leading to a more holistic view of the actual consequences that come with certain decisions. This review is providing a comprehensive overview of hybrid approaches that are used in forest management planning. Today, the scientific world is facing increasing challenges regarding the evaluation of ES and the trade-offs between them, for example between provisioning and regulating services. As the preferences of multiple stakeholders are essential to improve the decision process in multi-purpose forestry, participatory and hybrid approaches turn out to be of particular importance. Accordingly, hybrid methods show great potential for becoming most relevant in future decision making. Based on the review presented here, the development of models for the use in planning processes should focus on participatory modeling and the consideration of uncertainty regarding available information.

Combining aerial photos and LiDAR data to detect canopy cover change in urban forests.

The advancement and accessibility of high-resolution remotely sensed data has made it feasible to detect tree canopy cover (TCC) changes over small spatial scales. However, the short history of these high-resolution collection techniques presents challenges when assessing canopy changes over longer time scales (> 50 years). This research shows how using high-resolution LiDAR data in conjunction with historical aerial photos can overcome this limitation. We used the University of British Columbia's Point Grey campus in Vancouver, Canada, as a case study, using both historical aerial photographs from 1949 and 2015 LiDAR data. TCC was summed in 0.05 ha analysis polygons for both the LiDAR and aerial photo data, allowing for TCC comparison across the two different data types. Methods were validated using 2015 aerial photos, the means (Δ 0.24) and a TOST test indicated that the methods were statistically equivalent (±5.38% TCC). This research concludes the methods outlined is suitable for small scale TCC change detection over long time frames when inconsistent data types are available between the two time periods.

Characterizing, mapping and valuing the demand for forest recreation using crowdsourced social media data.

Mapping and valuing of forest recreation is time-consuming and complex, hampering its inclusion in forest management plans and hence the achievement of a fully sustainable forest management. In this study, we explore the potential of crowdsourced social media data in tackling the mapping and valuing of forest recreation demand. To do so, we assess the relationships between crowdsourced social media data, acquired from over 350,000 Flickr geotagged pictures, and demand for forest recreation in British Columbia (BC) forests. We first identify temporal and spatial trends of forest recreation demand, as well as the countries of origin of BC forests visitors. Second, we estimate the average number of annual recreational visits with a linear regression model calibrated with empirically collected secondary data. Lastly, we estimate recreational values by deriving the average consumer surpluses for the visitors of BC forested provincial parks. We find that annually, on average, over 44 million recreational experiences are completed in BC forests, with peaks during the summer months and during the weekends. Moreover, a crowdsourced travel cost approach allowed us to value the recreational ecosystem service in five forested provincial parks ranging from ~2.9 to ~35.0 million CAN$/year. Our findings demonstrate that social media data can be used to characterize, quantify and map the demand for forest recreation (especially in peri-urban forests), representing a useful tool for the inclusion of recreational values in forest management. Finally, we address the limitations of crowdsourced social media data in the study of forest recreation and the future perspectives of this rapidly growing research field.

Wood product carbon substitution benefits: a critical review of assumptions.

BACKGROUND: There are high estimates of the potential climate change mitigation opportunity of using wood products. A significant part of those estimates depends on long-lived wood products in the construction sector replacing concrete, steel, and other non-renewable goods. Often the climate change mitigation benefits of this substitution are presented and quantified in the form of displacement factors. A displacement factor is numerically quantified as the reduction in emissions achieved per unit of wood used, representing the efficiency of biomass in decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. The substitution benefit for a given wood use scenario is then represented as the estimated change in emissions from baseline in a study's modelling framework. The purpose of this review is to identify and assess the central economic and technical assumptions underlying forest carbon accounting and life cycle assessments that use displacement factors or similar simple methods. MAIN TEXT: Four assumptions in the way displacement factors are employed are analyzed: (1) changes in harvest or production rates will lead to a corresponding change in consumption of wood products, (2) wood building products are substitutable for concrete and steel, (3) the same mix of products could be produced from increased harvest rates, and (4) there are no market responses to increased wood use. CONCLUSIONS: After outlining these assumptions, we conclude suggesting that many studies assessing forest management or products for climate change mitigation depend on a suite of assumptions that the literature either does not support or only partially supports. Therefore, we encourage the research community to develop a more sophisticated model of the building sectors and their products. In the meantime, recognizing these assumptions has allowed us to identify some structural, production, and policy-based changes to the construction industry that could help realize the climate change mitigation potential of wood products.

Assessing the Potential Distribution of Asian Gypsy Moth in Canada: A Comparison of Two Methodological Approaches.

Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) is one of the world's worst hardwood defoliating invasive alien species. It is currently spreading across North America, damaging forest ecosystems and posing a significant economic threat. Two subspecies L. d. asiatica and L. d. japonica, collectively referred to as Asian gypsy moth (AGM) are of special concern as they have traits that make them better invaders than their European counterpart (e.g. flight capability of females). We assessed the potential distribution of AGM in Canada using two presence-only species distribution models, Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP). In addition, we mapped AGM potential future distribution under two climate change scenarios (A1B and A2) while implementing dispersal constraints using the cellular automation model MigClim. MaxEnt had higher AUC, pAUC and sensitivity scores (0.82/1.40/1.00) when compared to GARP (0.70/1.26/0.9), indicating better discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for AGM. The models indicated that suitable conditions for AGM were present in the provinces of British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. The human influence index was the variable found to contribute the most in predicting the distribution of AGM. These model results can be used to identify areas at risk for this pest, to inform strategic and tactical pest management decisions.

Assessing Niche Shifts and Conservatism by Comparing the Native and Post-Invasion Niches of Major Forest Invasive Species.

Invasive species experience biotic and abiotic conditions that may (or may not) resemble their native environment. We explored the methodology of determining climatic niches and compared the native and post-invasion niches of four invasive forest pests to determine if these species experienced shifts or changes in their new climatic niches. We used environmental principle components analysis (PCA-env) method to quantify climatic niche shifts, expansions, and temporal changes. Furthermore, we assessed the effect of variable selection in the delineation and comparison of niche space. We found that variable selection influenced the delineation and overlap of each niche, whereas the subset of climatic variables selected from the first two PCA-env axes explained more variance in environmental conditions than the complete set of climatic variables for all four species. Most focal species showed climatic niche shifts in their invasive range and had not yet fully occupied the available niche within the invaded range. Our species varied the proportion of niche overlap between the native and invasive ranges. By comparing native and invasive niches, we can help predict a species' potential range expansion and invasion potential. Our results can guide monitoring and help inform management of these and other invasive species.