Prospective validation of the 4C prognostic models for adults hospitalised with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol.

PURPOSE: To prospectively validate two risk scores to predict mortality (4C Mortality) and in-hospital deterioration (4C Deterioration) among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study of adults (age ≥18 years) with confirmed or highly suspected COVID-19 recruited into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study in 306 hospitals across England, Scotland and Wales. Patients were recruited between 27 August 2020 and 17 February 2021, with at least 4 weeks follow-up before final data extraction. The main outcome measures were discrimination and calibration of models for in-hospital deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) and mortality, incorporating predefined subgroups. RESULTS: 76 588 participants were included, of whom 27 352 (37.4%) deteriorated and 12 581 (17.4%) died. Both the 4C Mortality (0.78 (0.77 to 0.78)) and 4C Deterioration scores (pooled C-statistic 0.76 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.77)) demonstrated consistent discrimination across all nine National Health Service regions, with similar performance metrics to the original validation cohorts. Calibration remained stable (4C Mortality: pooled slope 1.09, pooled calibration-in-the-large 0.12; 4C Deterioration: 1.00, -0.04), with no need for temporal recalibration during the second UK pandemic wave of hospital admissions. CONCLUSION: Both 4C risk stratification models demonstrate consistent performance to predict clinical deterioration and mortality in a large prospective second wave validation cohort of UK patients. Despite recent advances in the treatment and management of adults hospitalised with COVID-19, both scores can continue to inform clinical decision making. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN66726260.

Evaluation and improvement of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) for COVID-19: a multi-hospital study.

BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is currently recommended in the UK for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. We aimed to evaluate NEWS2 for the prediction of severe COVID-19 outcome and identify and validate a set of blood and physiological parameters routinely collected at hospital admission to improve upon the use of NEWS2 alone for medium-term risk stratification. METHODS: Training cohorts comprised 1276 patients admitted to King's College Hospital National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust with COVID-19 disease from 1 March to 30 April 2020. External validation cohorts included 6237 patients from five UK NHS Trusts (Guy's and St Thomas' Hospitals, University Hospitals Southampton, University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University College London Hospitals, University Hospitals Birmingham), one hospital in Norway (Oslo University Hospital), and two hospitals in Wuhan, China (Wuhan Sixth Hospital and Taikang Tongji Hospital). The outcome was severe COVID-19 disease (transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) or death) at 14 days after hospital admission. Age, physiological measures, blood biomarkers, sex, ethnicity, and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases) measured at hospital admission were considered in the models. RESULTS: A baseline model of 'NEWS2 + age' had poor-to-moderate discrimination for severe COVID-19 infection at 14 days (area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in training cohort = 0.700, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.680, 0.722; Brier score = 0.192, 95% CI 0.186, 0.197). A supplemented model adding eight routinely collected blood and physiological parameters (supplemental oxygen flow rate, urea, age, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, neutrophil count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) improved discrimination (AUC = 0.735; 95% CI 0.715, 0.757), and these improvements were replicated across seven UK and non-UK sites. However, there was evidence of miscalibration with the model tending to underestimate risks in most sites. CONCLUSIONS: NEWS2 score had poor-to-moderate discrimination for medium-term COVID-19 outcome which raises questions about its use as a screening tool at hospital admission. Risk stratification was improved by including readily available blood and physiological parameters measured at hospital admission, but there was evidence of miscalibration in external sites. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the use of early warning scores for COVID.

Quantitative IFN-γ Release Assay and Tuberculin Skin Test Results to Predict Incident Tuberculosis. A Prospective Cohort Study.

Rationale: Development of diagnostic tools with improved predictive value for tuberculosis (TB) is a global research priority.Objectives: We evaluated whether implementing higher diagnostic thresholds than currently recommended for QuantiFERON Gold-in-Tube (QFT-GIT), T-SPOT.TB, and the tuberculin skin test (TST) might improve prediction of incident TB.Methods: Follow-up of a UK cohort of 9,610 adult TB contacts and recent migrants was extended by relinkage to national TB surveillance records (median follow-up 4.7 yr). Incidence rates and rate ratios, sensitivities, specificities, and predictive values for incident TB were calculated according to ordinal strata for quantitative results of QFT-GIT, T-SPOT.TB, and TST (with adjustment for prior bacillus Calmette-Guérin [BCG] vaccination).Measurements and Main Results: For all tests, incidence rates and rate ratios increased with the magnitude of the test result (P < 0.0001). Over 3 years' follow-up, there was a modest increase in positive predictive value with the higher thresholds (3.0% for QFT-GIT ≥0.35 IU/ml vs. 3.6% for ≥4.00 IU/ml; 3.4% for T-SPOT.TB ≥5 spots vs. 5.0% for ≥50 spots; and 3.1% for BCG-adjusted TST ≥5 mm vs. 4.3% for ≥15 mm). As thresholds increased, sensitivity to detect incident TB waned for all tests (61.0% for QFT-GIT ≥0.35 IU/ml vs. 23.2% for ≥4.00 IU/ml; 65.4% for T-SPOT.TB ≥5 spots vs. 27.2% for ≥50 spots; 69.7% for BCG-adjusted TST ≥5 mm vs. 28.1% for ≥15 mm).Conclusions: Implementation of higher thresholds for QFT-GIT, T-SPOT.TB, and TST modestly increases positive predictive value for incident TB, but markedly reduces sensitivity. Novel biomarkers or validated multivariable risk algorithms are required to improve prediction of incident TB.

Effectiveness of BCG Vaccination Against Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Adults: A Cross-sectional Analysis of a UK-Based Cohort.

BACKGROUND: BCG appears to reduce acquisition of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in children, measured using interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs). We explored whether BCG vaccination continues to be associated with decreased prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection in adults. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of data from adult contacts of tuberculosis cases participating in a UK cohort study. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) of BCG, ascertained based on presence of a scar or vaccination history, against latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), measured via IGRA, was assessed using multivariable logistic regression. The effects of age at BCG and time since vaccination were also explored. RESULTS: Of 3453 recent tuberculosis contacts, 27.5% had LTBI. There was strong evidence of an association between BCG and LTBI (adjusted odds ratio = 0.70; 95% confidence interval, .56-.87; P = .0017) yielding a VE of 30%. VE declined with time since vaccination but there was evidence that LTBI prevalence was lower amongst vaccinated individuals even >20 years after vaccination, compared with nonvaccinated participants. CONCLUSIONS: BCG is associated with lower prevalence of LTBI in adult contacts of tuberculosis. These results contribute to growing evidence that suggests BCG may protect against M. tuberculosis infection as well as disease. This has implications for immunization programs, vaccine development, and tuberculosis control efforts worldwide. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT01162265.

Blood Transcriptomic Stratification of Short-term Risk in Contacts of Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: The highest risk of tuberculosis arises in the first few months after exposure. We reasoned that this risk reflects incipient disease among tuberculosis contacts. Blood transcriptional biomarkers of tuberculosis may predate clinical diagnosis, suggesting they offer improved sensitivity to detect subclinical incipient disease. Therefore, we sought to test the hypothesis that refined blood transcriptional biomarkers of active tuberculosis will improve stratification of short-term disease risk in tuberculosis contacts. METHODS: We combined analysis of previously published blood transcriptomic data with new data from a prospective human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative UK cohort of 333 tuberculosis contacts. We used stability selection as an alternative computational approach to identify an optimal signature for short-term risk of active tuberculosis and evaluated its predictive value in independent cohorts. RESULTS: In a previously published HIV-negative South African case-control study of patients with asymptomatic Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, a novel 3-gene transcriptional signature comprising BATF2, GBP5, and SCARF1 achieved a positive predictive value (PPV) of 23% for progression to active tuberculosis within 90 days. In a new UK cohort of 333 HIV-negative tuberculosis contacts with a median follow-up of 346 days, this signature achieved a PPV of 50% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.7-84.3) and negative predictive value of 99.3% (95% CI, 97.5-99.9). By comparison, peripheral blood interferon gamma release assays in the same cohort achieved a PPV of 5.6% (95% CI, 2.1-11.8). CONCLUSIONS: This blood transcriptional signature provides unprecedented opportunities to target therapy among tuberculosis contacts with greatest risk of incident disease.

Systematic evaluation and external validation of 22 prognostic models among hospitalised adults with COVID-19: an observational cohort study.

The number of proposed prognostic models for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is growing rapidly, but it is unknown whether any are suitable for widespread clinical implementation.We independently externally validated the performance of candidate prognostic models, identified through a living systematic review, among consecutive adults admitted to hospital with a final diagnosis of COVID-19. We reconstructed candidate models as per original descriptions and evaluated performance for their original intended outcomes using predictors measured at the time of admission. We assessed discrimination, calibration and net benefit, compared to the default strategies of treating all and no patients, and against the most discriminating predictors in univariable analyses.We tested 22 candidate prognostic models among 411 participants with COVID-19, of whom 180 (43.8%) and 115 (28.0%) met the endpoints of clinical deterioration and mortality, respectively. Highest areas under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were achieved by the NEWS2 score for prediction of deterioration over 24 h (0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.83), and a novel model for prediction of deterioration <14 days from admission (0.78, 95% CI 0.74-0.82). The most discriminating univariable predictors were admission oxygen saturation on room air for in-hospital deterioration (AUROC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81), and age for in-hospital mortality (AUROC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81). No prognostic model demonstrated consistently higher net benefit than these univariable predictors, across a range of threshold probabilities.Admission oxygen saturation on room air and patient age are strong predictors of deterioration and mortality among hospitalised adults with COVID-19, respectively. None of the prognostic models evaluated here offered incremental value for patient stratification to these univariable predictors.

Impact of TB on the survival of people living with HIV infection in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

INTRODUCTION: The impact of TB disease on survival in people living with HIV in high resource settings is not well documented in the antiretroviral treatment (ART) era. We calculated TB incidence rates and compared the mortality of persons with and without HIV-TB in a UK HIV cohort in the post-ART era, to determine the impact of HIV-TB on survival in the UK. METHODS: We linked the national cohort of persons (aged ≥15 years) diagnosed with HIV between 2000 and 2008 in England, Wales and Northern Ireland with the national TB register and deaths from the Office of National Statistics. We compared all-cause and AIDS-specific mortality in patients with and without TB by estimating HRs using Cox regression modelling allowing for potential predictors. RESULTS: Overall, 3188 (7.2%) individuals developed TB infection among a cohort of 44 050 HIV-diagnosed persons and 149 663 person-years. The cumulative TB incidence rate was 2.13 per 100 person-years with a spike within the first 6 months after HIV diagnosis. TB coinfected patients comprised 18% of the 1880 deaths during follow-up and 79% of deaths (n=967) in the year following HIV diagnosis. TB coinfection (HR 4.77, 95% CI 4.11 to 5.54) was significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality. Analysis of AIDS-related survival showed similar results. DISCUSSION: The unexpected high mortality in patients with HIV-TB in a population with good healthcare access and ART availability highlights the importance of improving active and latent TB case-finding among patients with HIV, and HIV-testing among patients with TB, to ensure appropriate and prompt treatment initiation for both diseases.

Blood RNA biomarkers for tuberculosis screening in people living with HIV before antiretroviral therapy initiation: a diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Undiagnosed tuberculosis remains a major threat for people living with HIV. Multiple blood transcriptomic biomarkers have shown promise for tuberculosis diagnosis. We sought to evaluate their diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility for systematic pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) tuberculosis screening. METHODS: We enrolled consecutive adults (age ≥18 years) referred to start ART at a community health centre in Cape Town, South Africa, irrespective of symptoms. Sputa were obtained (using induction if required) for two liquid cultures. Whole-blood RNA samples underwent transcriptional profiling using a custom Nanostring gene panel. We measured the diagnostic accuracy of seven candidate RNA signatures (one single gene biomarker [BATF2] and six multigene biomarkers) for the reference standard of Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture status, using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, and sensitivity and specificity at prespecified thresholds (two standard scores above the mean of healthy controls; Z2). Clinical utility was assessed by calculating net benefit in decision curve analysis. We compared performance with C-reactive protein (CRP; threshold ≥5 mg/L), WHO four-symptom screen (W4SS), and the WHO target product profile for tuberculosis triage tests. FINDINGS: A total of 707 people living with HIV (407 [58%] female and 300 [42%] male) were included, with median CD4 count 306 cells per mm3 (IQR 184-486). Of 676 participants with available sputum culture results, 89 (13%) had culture-confirmed tuberculosis. The seven RNA signatures were moderately to highly correlated (Spearman rank coefficients 0·42-0·93) and discriminated tuberculosis culture positivity with similar AUROCs (0·73-0·80), but none statistically better than CRP (AUROC 0·78, 95% CI 0·72-0·83). Diagnostic accuracy was similar across CD4 count strata, but lower among participants with negative W4SS (AUROCs 0·56-0·65) compared with positive (AUROCs 0·75-0·84). The RNA biomarker with the highest AUROC point estimate was a four-gene signature (Suliman4; AUROC 0·80, 95% CI 0·75-0·86), with sensitivity 83% (95% CI 74-90) and specificity 59% (55-63) at the Z2 threshold. In decision curve analysis, Suliman4 and CRP had similar clinical utility to guide confirmatory tuberculosis testing, but both had higher net benefit than W4SS. In exploratory analyses, an approach combining CRP (≥5 mg/L) and Suliman4 (≥Z2) had sensitivity of 80% (70-87), specificity of 70% (66-74), and higher net benefit than either biomarker alone. INTERPRETATION: RNA biomarkers showed better clinical utility to guide confirmatory tuberculosis testing for people living with HIV before ART initiation than symptom-based screening, but their performance did not exceed that of CRP and fell short of WHO recommended targets. Interferon-independent approaches might be required to improve accuracy of host-response biomarkers to support tuberculosis screening before ART initiation. FUNDING: South African Medical Research Council, European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership 2, National Institutes of Health National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, The Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Royal College of Physicians London.

Blood RNA signatures outperform CRP triage of tuberculosis lymphadenitis and pericarditis.

Background: Limited data are available on the diagnostic accuracy of blood RNA biomarker signatures for extrapulmonary TB (EPTB). We addressed this question among people investigated for TB lymphadenitis and TB pericarditis, in Cape Town, South Africa. Methods: We enrolled 440 consecutive adults referred to a hospital for invasive sampling for presumptive TB lymphadenitis (n=300) or presumptive TB pericarditis (n=140). Samples from the site of disease underwent culture and/or molecular testing for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (Mtb). Discrimination of patients with and without TB defined by microbiology or cytology reference standards was evaluated using seven previously reported blood RNA signatures by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and sensitivity/specificity at predefined thresholds, benchmarked against blood C-reactive protein (CRP) and the World Health Organization (WHO) target product profile (TPP) for a TB triage test. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the best performing blood RNA signature and CRP. Results: Data from 374 patients for whom results were available from at least one microbiological test from the site of disease, and blood CRP and RNA measurements, were included. Using microbiological results as the reference standard in the primary analysis (N=204 with TB), performance was similar across lymphadenitis and pericarditis patients. In the pooled analysis of both cohorts, all RNA signatures had comparable discrimination with AUROC point estimates ranging 0.77-0.82, superior to that of CRP (0.61, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.67). The best performing signature (Roe3) achieved an AUROC of 0.82 (0.77-0.86). At a predefined threshold of 2 standard deviations (Z2) above the mean of a healthy reference control group, this signature achieved 78% (72-83%) sensitivity and 69% (62-75%) specificity. In this setting, DCA revealed that Roe3 offered greater net benefit than other approaches for services aiming to reduce the number needed to investigate with confirmatory testing to <4 to identify each case of TB. Interpretation: RNA biomarkers show better accuracy and clinical utility than CRP to trigger confirmatory TB testing in patients with TB lymphadenitis and TB pericarditis, but still fall short of the WHO TPP for TB triage tests. Funding: South African MRC, EDCTP2, NIH/NIAID, Wellcome Trust, NIHR, Royal College of Physicians London. Research in context: Evidence before this study: Blood RNA biomarker signatures and CRP measurements have emerged as potential triage tests for TB, but evidence is mostly limited to their performance in pulmonary TB. Microbiological diagnosis of extrapulmonary TB (EPTB) is made challenging by the need for invasive sampling to obtain tissue from the site of disease. This is compounded by lower sensitivity of confirmatory molecular tests for EPTB compared to their performance in pulmonary disease. We performed a systematic review of diagnostic accuracy studies of blood RNA biomarkers or CRP measurements for EPTB, which could mitigate the need for site-of-disease sampling for the diagnosis of TB. We searched PubMed up to 1 st August 2023, using the following criteria: "extrapulmonary [title/abstract] AND tuberculosis [title/abstract] AND biomarker [title/abstract]". Although extrapulmonary TB was included in several studies, none focused specifically on EPTB or included an adequate number of EPTB cases to provide precise estimates of test accuracy. Added value of this study: To the best of our knowledge, we report the first diagnostic accuracy study of blood RNA biomarkers and CRP for TB among people with EPTB syndromes. We examined the performance of seven previously identified blood RNA biomarkers as triage tests for TB lymphadenitis and TB pericarditis compared to a microbiology reference standard among people referred to hospital for invasive sampling in a high TB and HIV prevalence setting. Multiple blood RNA biomarkers showed comparable diagnostic accuracy to that previously reported for pulmonary TB in both EPTB disease cohorts, irrespective of HIV status. All seven blood RNA biomarkers showed superior diagnostic accuracy to CRP for both lymphadenitis and pericarditis, but failed to meet the combined >90% sensitivity and >70% specificity recommended for a blood-based diagnostic triage test by WHO. Nonetheless, in decision curve analysis, an approach of using the best performing blood RNA biomarker to trigger confirmatory microbiological testing showed superior clinical utility in clinical services seeking to reduce the number needed to test (using invasive confirmatory testing) to less than 4 for each EPTB case detected. If acceptable to undertake invasive testing in more than 4 people for each true case detected, then a test-all approach will provide greater net benefit in this TB/HIV hyperendemic setting.Implications of all the available evidence: Blood RNA biomarkers show some potential as diagnostic triage tests for TB lymphadenitis and TB pericarditis, but do not provide the level of accuracy for blood-based triage tests recommended by WHO for community-based tests. CRP has inferior diagnostic accuracy to blood RNA biomarkers and cannot be recommended for diagnostic triage among people with EPTB syndromes referred for invasive sampling.

Point-of-care C-reactive protein and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra for tuberculosis screening and diagnosis in unselected antiretroviral therapy initiators: a prospective, cross-sectional, diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis, a major cause of death in people living with HIV, remains challenging to diagnose. Diagnostic accuracy data are scarce for promising triage and confirmatory tests such as C-reactive protein (CRP), sputum and urine Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert Ultra), and urine Determine TB LAM Ag (a lateral flow lipoarabinomannan [LF-LAM] test), without symptom selection. We evaluated novel triage and confirmatory tests in ambulatory people with HIV initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: 897 ART-initiators were recruited irrespective of symptoms and sputum induction offered. For triage (n=800), we evaluated point-of-care blood-based CRP testing, compared with the WHO-recommended four-symptom screen (W4SS). For sputum-based confirmatory testing (n=787), we evaluated Xpert Ultra versus Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert). For urine-based confirmatory testing (n=732), we evaluated Xpert Ultra and LF-LAM. We used a sputum culture reference standard. FINDINGS: 463 (52%) of 897 participants were female. The areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves for CRP was 0·78 (95% CI 0·73-0·83) and for number of W4SS symptoms was 0·70 (0·64-0·75). CRP (≥10 mg/L) had similar sensitivity to W4SS (77% [95% CI 68-85; 80/104] vs 77% [68-85; 80/104]; p>0·99] but higher specificity (64% [61-68; 445/696] vs 48% [45-52; 334/696]; p<0·0001]; reducing unnecessary confirmatory testing by 138 (95% CI 117-160) per 1000 people and number-needed-to-test from 6·91 (95% CI 6·25-7·81) to 4·87 (4·41-5·51). Sputum samples with Xpert Ultra, which required induction in 49 (31%) of 158 of people (95% CI 24-39), had higher sensitivity than Xpert (71% [95% CI 61-80; 74/104] vs 56% [46-66; 58/104]; p<0·0001). Of the people with one or more confirmatory sputum or urine test results that were positive, the proportion detected by Xpert Ultra increased from 45% (26-64) to 66% (46-82) with induction. Programmatically done haemoglobin, triage test combinations, and urine tests showed comparatively worse results. INTERPRETATION: CRP is a more specific triage test than W4SS in those initiating ART. Sputum induction improves diagnostic yield. Sputum samples with Xpert Ultra is a more accurate confirmatory test than with Xpert. FUNDING: South African Medical Research Council, EDCTP2, US National Institutes of Health-National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Blood RNA biomarkers for tuberculosis screening in people living with HIV prior to anti-retroviral therapy initiation: A diagnostic accuracy study.

Background: Undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) remains a major threat for people living with HIV (PLHIV). Multiple blood transcriptomic biomarkers have shown promise for TB diagnosis. We sought to evaluate their diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility for systematic pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) TB screening. Methods: We enrolled consecutive adults referred to start ART at a community health centre in Cape Town, South Africa, irrespective of symptoms. Sputa were obtained (using induction if required) for two liquid cultures. Whole-blood RNA samples underwent transcriptional profiling using a custom Nanostring gene-panel. We measured the diagnostic accuracy of seven candidate RNA biomarkers for the reference standard of Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture status, using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, and sensitivity/specificity at pre-specified thresholds (two standard scores above the mean of healthy controls; Z2). Clinical utility was assessed using decision curve analysis. We compared performance to CRP (threshold ≥5mg/L), World Health Organisation (WHO) four-symptom screen (W4SS) and the WHO target product profile for TB triage tests. Results: A total of 707 PLHIV were included, with median CD4 count 306 cells/mm3. Of 676 with available sputum culture results, 89 (13%) had culture-confirmed TB. The seven RNA biomarkers were moderately to highly correlated (Spearman rank coefficients 0.42-0.93) and discriminated TB culture-positivity with similar AUROCs (0.73-0.80), but none statistically better than CRP (AUROC 0.78; 95% CI 0.72-0.83). Diagnostic accuracy was similar across CD4 count strata, but lower among W4SS-negative (AUROCs 0.56-0.65) compared to W4SS-positive participants (AUROCs 0.75-0.84). The RNA biomarker with highest AUROC point estimate was a 4-gene signature (Suliman4; AUROC 0.80; 95% CI 0.75-0.86), with sensitivity 0.83 (0.74-0.90) and specificity 0.59 (0.55-0.63) at Z2 threshold. In decision curve analysis, Suliman4 and CRP had similar clinical utility to guide confirmatory TB testing, but both had higher net benefit than W4SS. In exploratory analyses, an approach combining CRP (≥5mg/L) and Suliman4 (≥Z2) had sensitivity of 0.80 (0.70-0.87), specificity of 0.70 (0.66-0.74) and higher net benefit than either biomarker alone. Interpretation: RNA biomarkers showed better clinical utility to guide confirmatory TB testing for PLHIV prior to ART initiation than symptom-based screening, but their performance did not exceed that of CRP, and fell short of WHO recommended targets. Interferon-independent approaches may be required to improve accuracy of host-response biomarkers to support TB screening pre-ART initiation. Funding: South African MRC, EDCTP2, NIH/NIAID, Wellcome Trust, NIHR, Royal College of Physicians London.

Clinical utility of C-reactive protein-based triage for presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis in South African adults.

BACKGROUND: Identification of an accurate, low-cost triage test for pulmonary TB among people presenting to healthcare facilities is an urgent global research priority. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of C-reactive protein (CRP) for TB triage among symptomatic adult outpatients, irrespective of HIV status. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled adults reporting at least one (for people with HIV) or two (for people without HIV) symptoms of cough, fever, night sweats, or weight loss at two TB clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Participants provided sputum for culture and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of CRP (measured using a laboratory-based assay) against a TB-culture reference standard as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and sensitivity and specificity at pre-specified thresholds. We assessed clinical utility using decision curve analysis and benchmarked against WHO recommendations. RESULTS: Of 932 included individuals, 255 (27%) had culture-confirmed pulmonary TB and 389 (42%) were living with HIV. CRP demonstrated an AUROC of 0·80 (95% confidence interval 0·77-0·83), with sensitivity 93% (89-95%) and specificity 54% (50-58%) using a primary cut-off of ≥10 mg/L. Performance was similar among people with HIV to those without. In decision curve analysis, CRP-based triage offered greater clinical utility than confirmatory testing for all up to a number willing to test threshold of 20 confirmatory tests per true positive pulmonary TB case diagnosed (threshold probability 5%). If it is possible to perform more confirmatory tests than this, a 'confirmatory test for all' strategy performed better. CONCLUSIONS: CRP achieved the WHO-defined sensitivity, but not specificity, targets for a triage test for pulmonary TB and showed evidence of clinical utility among symptomatic outpatients, irrespective of HIV status. FUNDING: South African Medical Research Council, EDCTP2, Royal Society Newton Advanced Fellowship, Wellcome Trust, National Institute of Health Research, Royal College of Physicians.

Tuberculosis prevention: current strategies and future directions.

BACKGROUND: An estimated one fourth of the world's population is infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and 5-10% of those infected develop tuberculosis in their lifetime. Preventing tuberculosis is one of the most underutilized but essential components of curtailing the tuberculosis epidemic. Moreover, current evidence illustrates that tuberculosis manifestations occur along a dynamic spectrum from infection to disease rather than a binary state as historically conceptualized. Elucidating determinants of transition between these states is crucial to decreasing the tuberculosis burden and reaching the END-TB Strategy goals as defined by the WHO. Vaccination, detection of infection, and provision of preventive treatment are key elements of tuberculosis prevention. OBJECTIVES: This review provides a comprehensive summary of recent evidence and state-of-the-art updates on advancements to prevent tuberculosis in various settings and high-risk populations. SOURCES: We identified relevant studies in the literature and synthesized the findings to provide an overview of the current state of tuberculosis prevention strategies and latest research developments. CONTENT: We present the current knowledge and recommendations regarding tuberculosis prevention, with a focus on M. bovis Bacille-Calmette-Guérin vaccination and novel vaccine candidates, tests for latent infection with M. tuberculosis, regimens available for tuberculosis preventive treatment and recommendations in low- and high-burden settings. IMPLICATIONS: Effective tuberculosis prevention worldwide requires a multipronged approach that addresses social determinants, and improves access to tuberculosis detection and to new short tuberculosis preventive treatment regimens. Robust collaboration and innovative research are needed to reduce the global burden of tuberculosis and develop new detection tools, vaccines, and preventive treatments that serve all populations and ages.

Point-of-care C-reactive protein and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra for tuberculosis screening and diagnosis in unselected antiretroviral therapy initiators: a prospective diagnostic accuracy study.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB), a major cause of death in people living with HIV (PLHIV), remains challenging to diagnose. Diagnostic accuracy data are lacking for promising triage tests, such as C-reactive protein (CRP), and confirmatory tests, such as sputum and urine Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Ultra), and urine LAM, without prior symptom selection. Methods: 897 PLHIV initiating antiretroviral therapy were consecutively recruited in settings with high TB incidence, irrespective of symptoms. Participants were offered sputum induction, with a liquid culture reference standard. First, we evaluated point-of-care CRP testing on blood, compared to the World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended four-symptom screen (W4SS) for triage (n=800). Second, we evaluated Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Ultra) versus Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) for sputum-based confirmatory testing (n=787), with or without sputum induction. Third, we evaluated Ultra and Determine LF-LAM for urine-based confirmatory testing (n=732). Findings: CRP and number of W4SS symptoms had areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.73, 0.83) and 0.70 (0.64, 0.75), respectively. For triage, CRP (≥10 mg/l) has similar sensitivity to W4SS [77% (68, 85) vs. 77% (68, 85); p>0.999] but higher specificity [64% (61, 68) vs. 48% (45, 52); p<0.001]; reducing unnecessary confirmatory testing by 138 per 1000 people and the number-needed-to-test from 6.91 (6.25, 7.81) to 4.87 (4.41, 5.51). Using sputum, which required induction in 31% (24, 39) of people, Ultra had higher sensitivity than Xpert [71% (61, 80) vs. 56% (46, 66); p<0.001] but lower specificity [98% (96, 100) vs. 99% (98, 100); p<0.001]. The proportion of people with ≥1 positive confirmatory result detected by Ultra increased from 45% (26, 64) to 66% (46, 82) when induction was done. Programmatically-done haemoglobin, triage test combinations, and urine tests showed comparatively worse performance. Interpretation: Among ART-initiators in a high burden setting, CRP is a more specific triage test than W4SS. Sputum induction improves yield. Sputum Ultra is a more accurate confirmatory test than Xpert. Funding: SAMRC (MRC-RFA-IFSP-01-2013), EDCTP2 (SF1401, OPTIMAL DIAGNOSIS), NIH/NIAD (U01AI152087). Research in context: Evidence before this study: Novel triage and confirmatory tests are urgently needed for TB, especially in key risk groups like PLHIV. Many TB cases do not meet World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended four-symptom screen (W4SS) criteria despite accounting for significant transmission and morbidity. W4SS also lacks specificity, which makes onward referral of triage-positive people for expensive confirmatory testing inefficient and hampers diagnostic scale-up. Alternative triage approaches like CRP have promise, but have comparatively little data in ART-initiators, especially when done without syndromic preselection and using point-of-care (POC) tools. After triage, confirmatory testing can be challenging due to sputum scarcity and paucibacillary early-stage disease. Next generation WHO-endorsed rapid molecular tests (including Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra; Ultra) are a standard-of-care for confirmatory testing. However, there are no supporting data in ART-initiators, among whom Ultra may offer large sensitivity gains over predecessors like Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert). The added value of sputum induction to augment diagnostic sampling for confirmatory testing is also unclear. Lastly, the performance of urine tests (Ultra, Determine LF-LAM) in this population requires more data.Added value of this study: We evaluated repurposed and new tests for triage and confirmatory testing using a rigorous microbiological reference standard in a highly vulnerable high-priority patient population (ART-initiators) regardless of symptoms and ability to naturally expectorate sputum. We showed POC CRP triage is feasible, performs better than W4SS, and that combinations of different triage approaches offer no advantages over CRP alone. Sputum Ultra has superior sensitivity to Xpert; often detecting W4SS-negative TB. Furthermore, without induction, confirmatory sputum-based testing would not be possible in a third of people. Urine tests had poor performance. This study contributed unpublished data to systematic reviews and meta-analyses used by the WHO to inform global policy supporting use of CRP triage and Ultra in PLHIV.Implication of all the available evidence: POC CRP triage testing is feasible and superior to W4SS and, together with sputum induction in people who triage CRP-positive should, after appropriate cost and implementation research, be considered for roll-out in ART-initiators in high burden settings. Such people should be offered Ultra, which outperforms Xpert.

Clinical utility of WHO-recommended screening tools and development and validation of novel clinical prediction models for pulmonary tuberculosis screening among outpatients living with HIV: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that outpatient people living with HIV (PLHIV) undergo tuberculosis screening with the WHO four-symptom screen (W4SS) or C-reactive protein (CRP) (5 mg·L-1 cut-off) followed by confirmatory testing if screen positive. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis to determine the performance of WHO-recommended screening tools and two newly developed clinical prediction models (CPMs). METHODS: Following a systematic review, we identified studies that recruited adult outpatient PLHIV irrespective of tuberculosis signs and symptoms or with a positive W4SS, evaluated CRP and collected sputum for culture. We used logistic regression to develop an extended CPM (which included CRP and other predictors) and a CRP-only CPM. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate performance. RESULTS: We pooled data from eight cohorts (n=4315 participants). The extended CPM had excellent discrimination (C-statistic 0.81); the CRP-only CPM had similar discrimination. The C-statistics for WHO-recommended tools were lower. Both CPMs had equivalent or higher net benefit compared with the WHO-recommended tools. Compared with both CPMs, CRP (5 mg·L-1 cut-off) had equivalent net benefit across a clinically useful range of threshold probabilities, while the W4SS had a lower net benefit. The W4SS would capture 91% of tuberculosis cases and require confirmatory testing for 78% of participants. CRP (5 mg·L-1 cut-off), the extended CPM (4.2% threshold) and the CRP-only CPM (3.6% threshold) would capture similar percentages of cases but reduce confirmatory tests required by 24, 27 and 36%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CRP sets the standard for tuberculosis screening among outpatient PLHIV. The choice between using CRP at 5 mg·L-1 cut-off or in a CPM depends on available resources.