Predictive analytics in mental health: applications, guidelines, challenges and perspectives.

The emerging field of 'predictive analytics in mental health' has recently generated tremendous interest with the bold promise to revolutionize clinical practice in psychiatry paralleling similar developments in personalized and precision medicine. Here, we provide an overview of the key questions and challenges in the field, aiming to (1) propose general guidelines for predictive analytics projects in psychiatry, (2) provide a conceptual introduction to core aspects of predictive modeling technology, and (3) foster a broad and informed discussion involving all stakeholders including researchers, clinicians, patients, funding bodies and policymakers.

Infection-related complications during treatment for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Background: Comprehensive studies on neutropenia and infection-related complications in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) are lacking. Patients and methods: We evaluated infection-related complications that were grade ≥3 on National Cancer Institute's Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (version 3.0) and their risk factors in 409 children with newly diagnosed ALL throughout the treatment period. Results: Of the 2420 infection episodes, febrile neutropenia and clinically or microbiologically documented infection were seen in 1107 and 1313 episodes, respectively. Among documented infection episodes, upper respiratory tract was the most common site (n = 389), followed by ear (n = 151), bloodstream (n = 147), and gastrointestinal tract (n = 145) infections. These episodes were more common during intensified therapy phases such as remission induction and reinduction, but respiratory and ear infections, presumably viral in origin, also occurred during continuation phases. The 3-year cumulative incidence of infection-related death was low (1.0±0.9%, n = 4), including 2 from Bacillus cereus bacteremia. There was no fungal infection-related mortality. Age 1-9.9 years at diagnosis was associated with febrile neutropenia (P = 0.002) during induction and febrile neutropenia and documented infection (both P < 0.001) during later continuation. White race was associated with documented infection (P = 0.034) during induction. Compared with low-risk patients, standard- and high-risk patients received more intensive therapy during early continuation and had higher incidences of febrile neutropenia (P < 0.001) and documented infections (P = 0.043). Furthermore, poor neutrophil surge after dexamethasone pulses during continuation, which can reflect the poor bone marrow reserve, was associated with infections (P < 0.001). Conclusions: The incidence of infection-related death was low. However, young age, white race, intensive chemotherapy, and lack of neutrophil surge after dexamethasone treatment were associated with infection-related complications. Close monitoring for prompt administration of antibiotics and modification of chemotherapy should be considered in these patients.

[Acute hemorrhage in the upper gastrointestinal tract]. / Akute Blutung im oberen Gastrointestinaltrakt.

Bleeding in the upper gastrointestinal (GI) tract is a frequent and complex emergency. There are guidelines for acute medical treatment, established endoscopic treatment as well as surgical and radiological rescue procedures. Nevertheless, the mortality of the upper GI tract bleeding is high, which is due to the fact that affected patients often have serious preexisting illnesses.

Efficacy and safety of sofosbuvir/ledipasvir for the treatment of patients with hepatitis C virus re-infection after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is associated with a particularly poor outcome after liver transplantation. In December 2014, sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (SOF/LDV) fixed-dose combination (FDC) was approved for HCV genotype 1 and 4 in Europe. In orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) recipients, the interferon-free treatment of HCV re-infection with novel direct-acting antivirals has been demonstrated to be safe and effective in clinical trials, but real-world data are missing. The aim of this study was to investigate the safety and efficacy of SOF/LDV FDC in OLT recipients in the real-life setting. METHODS: All consecutive OLT patients started on SOF/LDV FDC for 12 or 24 weeks at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf and Medical School Hannover between October 2014 and August 2015 were retrospectively analyzed (n = 30). The primary efficacy endpoint was sustained virological response (SVR), i.e., absence of viremia 12 weeks after end of treatment (SVR 12). Liver function tests, creatinine, blood count, and HCV RNA (by polymerase chain reaction assay) were determined at each visit. RESULTS: SVR was achieved in 29/30 patients (96.67%) treated with SOF/LDV ± ribavirin (RBV) for 12 (n = 4) or 24 weeks (n = 25). Twenty-five patients (86.2%) received RBV. However, in 15 of the 25 patients, RBV administration had to be discontinued because of severe anemia (57.7%). One RBV-treated patient died of a myocardial infarction during antiviral therapy; this event was most likely not directly related to SOF/LDV. Aside from RBV-associated anemia, no severe side effects of the antiviral regimen were observed. CONCLUSION: Antiviral treatment with SOF/LDV is highly effective, safe, and well tolerated in OLT recipients. The addition of RBV often results in severe anemia, requiring dose reduction or discontinuation.

The influence of AMH on IVF success.

PURPOSE: Anti-Müllerian hormone has a regulative function in the activation of folliculogenesis and an influence on atresia rate. It is considered a marker for the ovarian reserve. We know that a relationship exists between AMH levels and oocyte retrieval numbers, antral follicle count, pregnancy rates and birth rates. The role of AMH as an efficient prognostic factor in determining the probability of pregnancy has been largely discussed in the literature. The aim of this study is to determine the role age and AMH levels play in success rates of IVF/ICSI therapies. To date, the sample group we examined was one of the biggest ever included in a single study of the subject. METHODS: All patients who underwent an IVF/ICSI treatment with FSH stimulation in the Wiesbaden Kinderwunschzentrum between 2003 and 2010, were no older than 44 years old, and had an evaluation of serum AMH levels before treatment were included in this study. In total, 1287 patients were analysed retrospectively. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS. RESULTS: Females' mean age was 34.89, ranging from 21 to 44 years. The patients underwent between 1 and 11 IVF cycles. Younger women had significantly higher AMH levels (p = 0.001). Patients with higher AMH levels had significantly lower break-off rates (p < 0.0005) and a significantly higher number of oocytes retrieved (p < 0.0005). Higher levels of AMH corresponded to higher pregnancy rates (p = 0.017). AMH levels do not influence pregnancy rates in younger patients (<36 years). CONCLUSIONS: AMH is a useful parameter that should be measured before performing an IVF/ICSI treatment. In younger patients, AMH levels do not predict pregnancy outcomes. In patients older than 36 years, AMH can be used as a prognostic factor. Even when a woman's AMH levels are too low to be detected, she still an acceptable chance of becoming pregnant.

Haemoproteus infected birds have increased lifetime reproductive success.

The impact of haematozoan infection on host fitness has received substantial attention since Hamilton and Zuk posited that parasites are important drivers of sexual selection. However, short-term studies testing the assumption that these parasites consistently reduce host fitness in the wild have produced contradictory results. To address this complex issue, we conducted a long-term study examining the relationship between naturally occurring infection with Haemoproteus and Plasmodium, and lifetime reproductive success and survival of Mountain White-crowned Sparrows. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that birds infected with haematozoan parasites have reduced survival (as determined by overwinter return rates) and reproductive success. Contrary to expectation, there was no relationship between Haemoproteus and Plasmodium infection and reproduction or survival in males, nor was there a relationship between Plasmodium infection and reproduction in females. Interestingly, Haemoproteus-infected females had significantly higher overwinter return rates and these females fledged more than twice as many chicks during their lifetimes as did uninfected females. We discuss the impact of parasitic infections on host fitness in light of these findings and suggest that, in the case of less virulent pathogens, investment in excessive immune defence may decrease lifetime reproduction.

Fermi orbital self-interaction corrected electronic structure of molecules beyond local density approximation.

The correction of the self-interaction error that is inherent to all standard density functional theory calculations is an object of increasing interest. In this article, we apply the very recently developed Fermi-orbital based approach for the self-interaction correction [M. R. Pederson et al., J. Chem. Phys. 140, 121103 (2014) and M. R. Pederson, J. Chem. Phys. 142, 064112 (2015)] to a set of different molecular systems. Our study covers systems ranging from simple diatomic to large organic molecules. We focus our analysis on the direct estimation of the ionization potential from orbital eigenvalues. Further, we show that the Fermi orbital positions in structurally similar molecules appear to be transferable.

Hepatitis C virus core antigen testing in liver and kidney transplant recipients.

HCV RNA levels correlate with the long-term outcome of hepatitis C in liver transplant recipients. Nucleic acid testing (NAT) is usually used to confirm HCV reinfection and to examine viral loads after liver transplantation. HCV core antigen (HCVcoreAg) testing could be an alternative to NAT with some potential advantages including very low intra- and interassay variabilities and lower costs. The performance of HCVcoreAg testing in organ transplant recipients is unknown. We prospectively studied 1011 sera for HCV RNA and HCVcoreAg in a routine real-world setting including 222 samples obtained from patients after liver or kidney transplantation. HCV RNA and HCVcoreAg test results showed a consistency of 98% with a very good correlation in transplanted patients (r > 0.85). The correlation between HCV RNA and HCVcoreAg was higher in sera with high viral loads and in samples from patients with low biochemical disease. Patients treated with tacrolimus showed a better correlation between both parameters than individuals receiving cyclosporine A. HCV RNA/HCVcoreAg ratios did not differ between transplanted and nontransplanted patients, and HCV RNA and HCVcoreAg kinetics were almost identical during the first days after liver transplantation. HCVcoreAg testing can be used to monitor HCV viral loads in patients after organ transplantation. However, the assay is not recommended to monitor antiviral therapies.

High-precision predictions for the light CP-even Higgs boson mass of the minimal supersymmetric standard model.

For the interpretation of the signal discovered in the Higgs searches at the LHC it will be crucial in particular to discriminate between the minimal Higgs sector realized in the standard model (SM) and its most commonly studied extension, the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM). The measured mass value, having already reached the level of a precision observable with an experimental accuracy of about 500 MeV, plays an important role in this context. In the MSSM the mass of the light CP-even Higgs boson, Mh, can directly be predicted from the other parameters of the model. The accuracy of this prediction should at least match the one of the experimental result. The relatively high mass value of about 126 GeV has led to many investigations where the scalar top quarks are in the multi-TeV range. We improve the prediction for Mh in the MSSM by combining the existing fixed-order result, comprising the full one-loop and leading and subleading two-loop corrections, with a resummation of the leading and subleading logarithmic contributions from the scalar top sector to all orders. In this way for the first time a high-precision prediction for the mass of the light CP-even Higgs boson in the MSSM is possible all the way up to the multi-TeV region of the relevant supersymmetric particles. The results are included in the code FEYNHIGGS.

Natural selection and glucocorticoid physiology.

Glucocorticoid hormones are considered potent modulators of trade-offs between reproduction and survival. As such, selection should affect glucocorticoid physiology, although relatively little is known about how selection may act on glucocorticoid profiles. In general, the evolution of physiology is less studied and less well understood than morphological or life history traits. Here, we used a long-term data set from a population of mountain white-crowned sparrows to estimate natural selection on glucocorticoid profiles. Our study suggests that survival selection favours higher hormone concentrations for multiple components of glucocorticoid physiology (both baseline and stress-induced glucocorticoid levels). Fecundity selection varies depending on the component of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal physiology; greater reproductive output was associated with higher baseline glucocorticoid levels, but lower stress-induced glucocorticoid levels. Additionally, the selection gradient was greater for glucocorticoids than for a morphological trait (wing length). These results support the hypothesis that stress-induced glucocorticoids increase survival over reproduction within a wild population (the CORT-trade-off hypothesis). Taken together, these results add to our knowledge of how selection operates on physiological traits and also provide an evolutionary and ecological perspective on several key open issues in the field of glucocorticoid physiology.

Assessing the role of reproduction and stress in the spring emergence of haematozoan parasites in birds.

A spring emergence of avian haemosporidian infections is nearly universal among temperate zone birds and is often described as a cost of reproductive effort. We take advantage of the opportunistic (i.e. aseasonal) breeding schedule of the red crossbill (Loxia curvirostra) to determine the relative contributions of season versus host physiology to the timing and intensity of Haemoproteus infections in the temperate zone. Despite breeding activity in both the winter and summer, Haemoproteus infections were highly seasonal--occurring largely from May through September--and measures of host physiology (i.e. reproductive condition and stress parameters) did not explain parasite prevalence. However, within the spring-summer peak, infection intensity (i.e. parasite density) was positively correlated with plasma levels of testosterone and free corticosterone and negatively correlated with corticosterone binding globulin capacity. These data are discussed in terms of the behavioral ecology of host and vector, and suggest that both seasonal increases in vector activity and relapse of latent (i.e. dormant) infections contribute to the spring emergence in birds. Relapse of latent infections does not appear to be induced by reproductive activity or increased allostatic (i.e. energy) load, but rather by a season-specific change in host or parasite physiology (e.g. melatonin or endogenous rhythms).

Identifying governance strategies that effectively support ecosystem services, resource sustainability, and biodiversity.

Conservation scientists, national governments, and international conservation groups seek to devise, and implement, governance strategies that mitigate human impact on the environment. However, few studies to date have systematically investigated the performance of different systems of governance in achieving successful conservation outcomes. Here, we use a newly-developed analytic framework to conduct analyses of a suite of case studies, linking different governance strategies to standardized scores for delivering ecosystem services, achieving sustainable use of natural resources, and conserving biodiversity, at both local and international levels. Our results: (i) confirm the benefits of adaptive management; and (ii) reveal strong associations for the role of leadership. Our work provides a critical step toward implementing empirically justified governance strategies that are capable of improving the management of human-altered environments, with benefits for both biodiversity and people.

Incorporating diverse values of nature in decision-making-theory and practice.

Values play a significant role in decision-making, especially regarding nature. Decisions impact people and nature in complex ways and understanding which values are prioritised, and which are left out is an important task for improving the equity and effectiveness of decision-making. Based on work done for the IPBES Values Assessment, this paper develops a framework to support analyses of how decision-making influences nature as well as whose values get prioritised. The framework is used to analyse key areas of environmental policy: a) the present model for nature protection in market economies, b) the role of valuation in bringing nature values into decisions, and c) values embedded in environmental policy instruments, exemplified by protected areas for nature conservation and payments for ecosystem services. The analyses show that environmental policies have been established as mere additions to decision-making structures that foster economic expansion, which undermines a wide range of nature's values. Moreover, environmental policies themselves are also focused on a limited set of nature's diverse values. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

Gonadotropin-releasing hormone plasticity: a comparative perspective.

Gonadotropin-releasing hormone 1 (GnRH1) is a key regulator of the reproductive neuroendocrine system in vertebrates. Recent developments have suggested that GnRH1 neurons exhibit far greater plasticity at the cellular and molecular levels than previously thought. Furthermore, there is growing evidence that sub-populations of GnRH1 neurons in the preoptic area are highly responsive to specific environmental and hormonal conditions. In this paper we discuss findings that reveal large variation in GnRH1 mRNA and protein expression that are regulated by social cues, photoperiod, and hormonal feedback. We draw upon studies using histochemistry and immediate early genes (e.g., c-FOS/ZENK) to illustrate that specific groups of GnRH1 neurons are topographically organized. Based on data from diverse vertebrate species, we suggest that GnRH1 expression within individuals is temporally dynamic and this plasticity may be evolutionarily conserved. We suggest that the plasticity observed in other neuropeptide systems (i.e. kisspeptin) may have evolved in a similar manner.

Obligate versus rich patch opportunism: evolution and endocrine mechanisms.

Opportunistic breeding has been hypothesized to evolve in response to rare or unpredictable resource pulses. In this traditional view of opportunism, individuals invest heavily in reproduction whenever conditions are permissive for breeding, perhaps at the expense of investment in survival. We term this strategy 'obligate opportunism' (OBO). We also present an additional strategy that could account for the evolution of opportunism. High mobility may allow individuals to move between rich patches of resources that are spatially or temporally unpredictable, reducing exposure to food scarcity and taking advantage of breeding opportunities. This strategy, which we term 'rich patch exploiter' (RPE), predicts that investment in survival-enhancing processes may occur at the expense of reproduction despite high resource availability. We review examples to determine which opportunists better match predictions from the OBO strategy or the RPE strategy and then review endocrine profiles in the context of the two strategies.

Harmonic generation from relativistic plasma surfaces in ultrasteep plasma density gradients.

Harmonic generation in the limit of ultrasteep density gradients is studied experimentally. Observations reveal that, while the efficient generation of high order harmonics from relativistic surfaces requires steep plasma density scale lengths (L(p)/λ < 1), the absolute efficiency of the harmonics declines for the steepest plasma density scale length L(p)→0, thus demonstrating that near-steplike density gradients can be achieved for interactions using high-contrast high-intensity laser pulses. Absolute photon yields are obtained using a calibrated detection system. The efficiency of harmonics reflected from the laser driven plasma surface via the relativistic oscillating mirror was estimated to be in the range of 10(-4)-10(-6) of the laser pulse energy for photon energies ranging from 20-40 eV, with the best results being obtained for an intermediate density scale length.

Genome-wide copy number variation analysis in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: association with neuropeptide Y gene dosage in an extended pedigree.

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common, highly heritable neurodevelopmental syndrome characterized by hyperactivity, inattention and increased impulsivity. To detect micro-deletions and micro-duplications that may have a role in the pathogenesis of ADHD, we carried out a genome-wide screen for copy number variations (CNVs) in a cohort of 99 children and adolescents with severe ADHD. Using high-resolution array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH), a total of 17 potentially syndrome-associated CNVs were identified. The aberrations comprise 4 deletions and 13 duplications with approximate sizes ranging from 110 kb to 3 Mb. Two CNVs occurred de novo and nine were inherited from a parent with ADHD, whereas five are transmitted by an unaffected parent. Candidates include genes expressing acetylcholine-metabolizing butyrylcholinesterase (BCHE), contained in a de novo chromosome 3q26.1 deletion, and a brain-specific pleckstrin homology domain-containing protein (PLEKHB1), with an established function in primary sensory neurons, in two siblings carrying a 11q13.4 duplication inherited from their affected mother. Other genes potentially influencing ADHD-related psychopathology and involved in aberrations inherited from affected parents are the genes for the mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase 1 α subcomplex assembly factor 2 (NDUFAF2), the brain-specific phosphodiesterase 4D isoform 6 (PDE4D6) and the neuronal glucose transporter 3 (SLC2A3). The gene encoding neuropeptide Y (NPY) was included in a ∼3 Mb duplication on chromosome 7p15.2-15.3, and investigation of additional family members showed a nominally significant association of this 7p15 duplication with increased NPY plasma concentrations (empirical family-based association test, P=0.023). Lower activation of the left ventral striatum and left posterior insula during anticipation of large rewards or losses elicited by functional magnetic resonance imaging links gene dose-dependent increases in NPY to reward and emotion processing in duplication carriers. These findings implicate CNVs of behaviour-related genes in the pathogenesis of ADHD and are consistent with the notion that both frequent and rare variants influence the development of this common multifactorial syndrome.

Electronic states and the influence of oxygen addition on the optical absorption behaviour of manganese phthalocyanine.

The effects of electronic states and air exposure on the spectroscopic properties of manganese phthalocyanine (MnPc) have been examined. The observed features of the Q-band in the absorption spectra can be explained by intrinsic electronic properties of MnPc, i.e., the formation of singly charged molecules by charge transfer excitations. However, the reaction of MnPc with atmospheric molecular oxygen leads to deviations in peak intensities but does not change the fundamental characteristics of the spectra. Nevertheless, the reaction with oxygen changes the spin state from S = 3/2 to S = 1/2. X-ray diffraction measurements also indicate a slow diffusion process of the oxygen into the MnPc crystal. We discuss both influences to explain the behaviour of MnPc in various spectroscopic methods (EELS, ellipsometry, PES). Furthermore, we support the experimental investigations by detailed ab-initio calculations of spectroscopic properties using methods of the density functional theory framework.

Influence of a 12-month supervised, intensive resistance, aerobic and impact exercise intervention on muscle strength in prostate cancer patients undergoing anti-hormone therapy: Study protocol for the randomized, controlled Burgdorf study.

INTRODUCTION: Reduced testosterone levels due to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in prostate cancer patients cause common side effects, such as reduced muscle strength and bone density, increased fat mass, sexual dysfunction and fatigue. Short-term exercise during ADT has proven to be safe and effective in exhibiting a positive impact on body composition, sexual dysfunction and fatigue. However, there are only three randomized controlled trials that investigate one-year supervised impact exercise interventions, none of which examined follow-up effects after the intervention. Therefore, this study will conduct a one-year impact exercise intervention and assess follow-up effects up to one year later. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The aim of the randomized, controlled Burgdorf study is to assess the effects of a supervised 12-month intensive multimodal exercise intervention in comparison to a moderate aerobic exercise intervention, on muscle strength in prostate cancer patients receiving ADT. Additionally, quality of life, fatigue, body composition, erectile dysfunction, bone pain, physical activity level, endurance capacity, body-mass-index, waist and hip circumference and prostate-specific antigen- and testosterone levels will be assessed up to one year later. DISCUSSION: The Burgdorf study is the first study to conduct two different one-year supervised exercise interventions, and follow-up with patients for up to one year after the intervention. Results could provide important insights into the long-term effects of interventions on those parameters negatively affected by ADT, which could specify or newly establish care structures. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register, DRKS00009975. Registered 2016-02-09, https://www.drks.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial.HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00009975.

Genetic variation in CLDN1 and susceptibility to hepatitis C virus infection.

Claudin-1 is a recently discovered co-receptor for hepatitis C virus (HCV) that is required for late-stage binding of the virus. Because variants in the gene that encodes claudin-1 (CLDN1) could play a role in HCV infection, we conducted a 'whole gene association study' among injection drug users (IDUs) to examine whether CLDN1 genetic variants were associated with the risk of HCV infection or with viral clearance. In a cross sectional study, we examined genotype results for 50 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across the CLDN1 gene region, comparing genotypes among participants with chronic HCV (n = 658) to those in IDUs who had cleared HCV (n = 199) or remained HCV-uninfected (n = 68). Analyses were controlled for racial ancestry (African-American or European-American) by stratification and logistic regression modeling. We found that participants who remained uninfected more often carried CLDN1 promoter region SNPs -15312C [odds ratio (OR), 1.72; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-2.94; P = 0.048], -7153A (OR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.25-3.62; P = 0.006) and -5414C (OR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.06-3.00; P = 0.03). HCV-uninfected participants less often carried CLDN1 IVS1-2983C (OR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.31-0.97; P = 0.04), which lies in intron 1. CLDN1 -15312C, -7153A and -5414C formed a haplotype in both the African-American and European-American participants and a haplotype analysis supported the association of CLDN1 -7153A in the HCV-uninfected participants. The analyses of HCV clearance revealed no associations with any SNP. These results indicate that genetic variants in regulatory regions of CLDN1 may alter susceptibility to HCV infection.